Rifle river recreation area camping reservations

Indigenous Youth Group Tabletop Gaming

2023.06.03 07:08 LittleCrowAdventures Indigenous Youth Group Tabletop Gaming

Hi everyone, my name is Anthony, I am Cree from the Little Red River Cree Nation. I am thrilled to introduce my home business, dedicated to bringing the captivating world of online tabletop gaming right to your doorstep. At Little Crow Adventures, we specialize in providing tabletop gaming experiences tailored specifically for Indigenous youth groups and families. Through our services, we aim to offer an engaging and inclusive space where Indigenous youth can explore their creativity, strategize, and build lasting friendships.
I firmly believe that gaming should be accessible to all, and that's why we’ve chosen Roll20 as our online platform. Roll20 is free for players and is designed to be user-friendly and intuitive. Whether you're a seasoned gamer or new to the world of tabletop gaming, our services offer a welcoming environment that encourages learning, collaboration, and fun for players of all skill levels.
As a business rooted in community values, we take great pride in actively engaging with Indigenous youth groups and families. Our ultimate goal is to create a safe and inclusive space where Indigenous youth can thrive, unleash their imagination, and forge lifelong connections. Join us at Little Crow Adventures, and let's embark on an unforgettable adventure where stories come to life, dreams are realized, and Indigenous traditions are celebrated.
I am slowly making my way through and emailing and calling the hundreds of Reserves and Reservations across Canada and The United States but I’m hoping that any of you reading might be willing to pass my info to any youth groups that may be in your area. This has been a long time dream of mine, making a living doing what I love, crafting and telling stories together, where the kids have a chance to shine and be the hero of their own stories. It’s my hope that I can add one more Indigenous voice to the nerd/geek culture and show that our stories deserve telling as well.
www.littlecrowadventures.com
I apologize in advance if this type of post is not allowed, I messaged the modteam prior but received no response.
submitted by LittleCrowAdventures to IndianCountry [link] [comments]

2023.06.03 05:29 KoanicSoul Ukraine has allegedly sabotaged Zaporizhia like Chernobyl, to stop Russia and draw NATO in. Biden can't afford another Kabul.

Table of Contents

  1. Russo-China rejects Biden
  2. ZNPP as potential Chernobyl
  3. Biden's Ukraine is desperate enough for scorched-earth tactics
    1. Battle of the Bulge at Bakhmut
    2. Fresh meat
    3. Teixeira leaks
    4. BRICS vs NATO
  4. ZNPP's weak point is diesel fuel
  5. Ukrainian saboteurs caught by ZNPP
  6. BB / Red Skull / Inb4source / Q
    1. BB sent Q
    2. BB warns Zaporizhia is pivotal
    3. RS gives ZNPP sabotage warning
    4. Ukraine HVT: Nuclear tit for tat
    5. Inb4source / Red Skull 4chan posting history
Note: links redacted. See bottom for link to original.

Summary

Ukraine has allegedly sabotaged Zaporizhia to melt down like Chernobyl, to stop the Russian invasion and justify NATO peacekeepers.
Here's Biden's plan to avoid another Kabul:

Russo-China rejects Biden

"Don’t underestimate Joe’s ability to fuck things up." – Barack Obama
Clearly we underestimated him. Americans can hardly believe that Biden blew up Nord Stream 2, essentially attacking our colony "ally" Germany. Perhaps they're still reeling from Kabul falling faster than Hanoi.
Normally Russia endeavors to cooperate with the sitting US president. However, Russian state media has begun airing the Hunter Biden laptop images, of Hunter engaged in drugs and pedophilia with preteen girls. This is retaliation for Biden crossing Russia's red line by repeatedly trying to sabotage Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP). That's why Russia is willing to assist in the impeachment of a sitting US president, which is obviously an extreme step to take between two countries with enough nukes to blot out the Sun.
Rumor has it that China has also turned on Biden, which would make sense: China's economic backing allows Russia to survive US sanctions. China wants Taiwan, and Russia wants East Ukraine. They would be stupid not to cooperate.

ZNPP as potential Chernobyl

A Redditor explains:
Kawaii-Gopnik Russia really needs that powerplant without any leak, to provide industry of surrounding regions with energy, but very few people understand contexts of the current situation: Soviets built complicated and very well ballanced energy system, including not only NPP, but also cascade of hydro power plants. Donetsk, Dnepr, Zaporozhe and Kharkov regions are just one big power hungry plant. NPP itself is reliant on hydropower and quality of water in Dnepr river. In case of really bad "accident" Russia will forget about development of the newly accuired regions, lack of energy produced by NPP is significant, nearly 30-40%. Accident will affect south of Ukraine with russian majority. It will also be also disaster for ecology of the WHOLE Black Sea. Rose of winds will spread nuclear dust to the West - Poland, Romania, Czechia and further. Nuclear zone will stop russian army from further territorial expansion. This will be border formed by Dnepr and nuclear zones.
The basic facts are documented by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Even while shut down, ZNPP needs external power grid or diesel to prevent its reactors from overheating.
Russia controls ZNPP. A nuclear "accident" would give NATO pretext to intervene, so Ukraine keeps trying to cause one.
How bad is this? Well, Chernobyl is in Ukraine. That was a 1k MW reactor. ZNPP has six. It is the 9th largest NPP in the world.
Hopefully the containment response would be much better than Chernobyl's, but that's hardly something to count on during WW3. Russia's nuclear doctrine includes pre-emptive strikes; who knows what they'd do. The USSR nearly launched twice during the Cold War.
Imagine if China assisted Texas in seceding from the USA to rejoin Mexico, and then caused a reactor meltdown at Comanche Peak Nuclear Power Plant when the USA retook it. A lot of Southerners would want to lob a few nukes back at China. They might demand it.
It is foolish to assume WW3 will not happen because it hasn't happened yet. One should look instead at the historical record of continual warfare, and the difficulties in preventing WW3 so far:
Thus one cannot rule out a radiation release 6x as bad as Chernobyl. Not that Ukraine needs anything so dramatic. It merely seeks a pretext to justify direct NATO intervention to "protect" ZNPP. A small leak will suffice.
Even if there is a major radiation leak, it will occur in Russian-annexed separatist territory, and help Ukraine defend her new border. Scorched earth is a valid tactic, whether the fire is conventional or nuclear. Ukraine survived Chernobyl and knows it can survive ZNPP too.

Biden's Ukraine is desperate enough for scorched-earth tactics

Battle of the Bulge at Bakhmut

"We have been working on the counter-offensive with Ukraine for 4-5 months." – Victoria Nuland
Why is Ukraine so desperate?
Ukraine depends on NATO aid to fight Russia. NATO aid depends on Democrat willingness. Democrat willingness depends on US public support. Therefore the illusion must be maintained to the American public that Ukraine is winning. For this reason, Ukraine has committed its reserves to a costly failed counter-offensive. Bakhmut fell regardless.
James A. Donald summarizes the strategic picture:
So, bright new plan. "The Greatest Ukrainian Offensive". The Ukraine would build up a big reserve of fresh troops, then suddenly hurl large chunks of them at particular points on the front. They would, the Americans planned, cut through a point in the front lines, penetrate to Russian rear areas, wreak havoc on those areas, and force Russian troops in danger of being encircled to hastily retreat from territory that had been slowly gained at enormous cost in grinding attritive warfare. I do not know how big the Ukrainian strategic reserve was, but if it was two hundred fifty thousand, they have now committed most of them to grinding attritive warfare, and cupboard is looking as bare of men as it is of artillery and rockets.
The USA expected to break Russia economically; China's economic support prevented that. Despite PMC Wagner's heartfelt complaints, Russia is unlikely to run out of convicts anytime soon. Russia is rotating divisions through Ukraine, seasoning reservists for a looming WW3. Russia's historical appetite for losses is much higher than its current losses. This is essentially a civil war, and the Russia bear considers being carved up an existential threat. By underestimating Russia's resolve, NATO is repeating the error of Napoleon and Hitler.
Despite having plenty of weapons, Ukraine's military manpower is exhausted and demoralized. Raw conscripts are thrown at the front lines with minimal training. Medvedev predicts that the Ukraine will cease to exist; half its people have already fled.
Anonymous Sat 27 May 2023 04:59:49 No.428438077 Report 428437208 Yeah, the killing has been excessive since they pretty much destroyed 95% of Azov fags and assorted true believers in the first 200k dead, now they overshot it by 100%. About 12% of the non-Russian speaking population's prime military aged men in Ukraine are dead or crippled. 12-20% of the same demographic has fled the country. It's over, desu. They are seeing much more of the polish and romanian mercs now, since they literally lack the manpower.
Western mass media wrongly assumes that Russia is losing because it does not take the entirety of Ukraine in a blitz, as the USA did to Iraq. However, Russia does not want West Ukraine; the people there do not like Russians. Russia has captured the territory it wants, and is now using the rest of Ukraine as a kettle or cauldron, in which to conveniently destroy whatever NATO wishes to send. This is a good way for Russia to gradually learn how to fight NATO armies in a low-risk environment.
The Spartans had a rule never to war too often against the same enemy, lest they train up a nemesis. It was foolish of NATO to believe that Russia had forgotten the lessons of attrition warfare that it learned so recently in Afghanistan.
Nehming Names 9h Russia's prudent caution in directly engaging the West is bringing dividends in perhaps unexpected ways. Russia is gaining strategic knowledge of the actual capabilities and weaknesses of our weapon systems and military tactics, with our supply of munitions draining to militarily unsustainable levels, as it engages allied forces in Ukraine. Russia is aware of the continuing progress of the Great Awakening in the West, that is, the knowledge that Western governments, military, and institutions are run by an elite hostile to their heritage populations, and therefore expects to see declining support of Western governments by their citizens. Russia can also see the precipitous decrease in every societal metric in the West: social cohesiveness, general morality, public health, financial stability, military readiness, etc.With these three degradative processes in play, the most strategic thing Russia and China can do is to bide their time, as time itself will act to sap the strength of the West to militarily engage their foes.

Fresh meat

Russian conquest of Kiev would air Biden's dirty laundry to the world, from Burisma kickbacks to pedophilic field trips and worse. This would result in US "regime change". A distant Chernobyl is a small price to pay, for top Democrats to avoid the hangman's noose.
Poland is itching to invade. Victoria Nuland is scheduling NATO air exercises. USAF propaganda asserts that Russia's air force is a joke. The question is, do Americans still believe Biden's false prophets of victory?
If not, they just need a little "encouragement": 9/11, Gulf of Tonkin, Pearl Harbor, Lusitania, Remember the Maine… Keep those rural Whites busy lest they make trouble at home!
Most Americans cannot find Ukraine on a map. (To be fair, it hasn't been on the map very long.) However, the architects of Biden's Ukraine policy, such as Victoria Nuland, Jake Sullivan, Antony Blinken and George Soros, tend to have grandparents of Eastern European origin. I am sure for them it feels important. There's no place like home.
A Redditor explains:
tinglevibestoo I listened to a former CIA agent talk about Ukraine the other day. He said that Ukraine is running out of time. It's not that they don't have the weapons. We've sent them a ton of weapons. It's that they don't have enough troops and they're running low on troops. That's how Russia will win. Ukraine can't sustain the manpower. It totally makes sense to use a nuclear false flag as a reason to bring in the extra manpower. Everyone would deem it justified too because it's a threat to the neighboring nations and it'd be an environmental (climate change) catastrophe.

Teixeira leaks

Some will bring up the US intelligence leaks by Jack Teixeira to support the idea that Russia rather than Ukraine is desperate. Unlike Snowden, Teixeiera was obviously a major security risk for patriotically-motivated leaking, with numerous red flags in his previous and ongoing behavior. Therefore Teixeira was probably a deliberate leak by US intelligence, using a patsy to generate the initial leak and then add whatever extra info they wanted released in the resulting confusion.
Teixeira's leaks served several purposes for the Biden administration:
Most importantly, it mitigated the potential political fallout from another catastrophe like Kabul, should Kiev fall.
The 4chan leaker BB/Inb4source asserts Teixeira was a patsy.

BRICS vs NATO

The foundation of the US empire is the petrodollar, which allows the USA to tax the world via digital debt seignorage. This is why the creation of BRICS as an independent financial and trading system rendered war between NATO and BRICS inevitable, as Kim Dotcom predicted. The US republic is a thalassocratic empire as arrogant as democratic Athens, and it is addicted to financial plunder. The Empire cannot afford to lose the USD's reserve currency status.
Reserve currencies and empires both have lifespans, and the USA has reached the end of both. It is at the stage where hubristic foreign misadventures prove fatal, and Ukraine and Taiwan will prove too much for the American eagle to handle. This is no longer WW2; the USA cannot win a two-front war against BRICS.
That is why Biden's NATO is desperate; the Empire is unravelling as the European Union and other allies such as Turkey and India lose their faith in NATO.
The fact that none of this is common knowledge speaks volumes about who controls public schools and owns mass media corporations.

ZNPP's weak point is diesel fuel

The situation at ZNPP is tenuous and grim, workers report:
Europe’s largest nuclear power station is on the frontline of the Ukraine war. SkyNews Twitter
The fact that the backup diesel reactors have not been maintained is particularly concerning, considering they have already been used 7 times.
UN nuclear chief raises alarm over Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia plant Al Jazeera
Ukraine keeps trying to force a crisis at ZNPP to justify NATO intervention. In other words, Ukraine keeps shelling ZNPP to cut the one power line that still connects it to the grid.
Atlas
This is extremely dangerous, external power is required for reliable cooling of the reactors and pools containing spent nuclear waste. Western media spent months last year pretending Kiev wasn’t shelling ZNPP.
Notice that the Russian side keeps ZNPP connected to the power grid, while the Ukrainian side pretends it cannot until the Russian invasion ends:
As you can see, Ukraine is not interested in being reasonable. Russia is happy to leave the NPP free of heavy military equipment, but Ukraine demands the removal of all troops and landmines from ZNPP as well. That would leave the plant undefended, which is obviously unacceptable.
(This is how perverse incentives work. A little ally with nothing to lose can start a world war. It's almost like dividing the world into two hostile nuclear alliances is a bad idea.)
When ZNPP loses external power, huge diesel generators automatically switch on to keep the reactors cool. How much diesel does this consume? Truckloads per day:
Anonymous Sat 27 May 2023 05:18:50 No.428439721 Report Quoted By: >>428463646 428436425 Still easy to transport diesel enough to keep them going In what? If NATO ops and Mercs are sabotaging trucks coming in, what do you think they are gonna carry diesel in to the plant? Is Russia gonna pack in rotopack Jerry cans on their back. Fill a truck up with 5 gallon cans and hope they make it past the snipers and sabotage? Do you have any clue how much fuel those big generators suck down in a day? Those generators to run the plants during shut down or failures are huge 500kw or bigger they are the size of whole 18 wheeler trailers. Those things will drink 50 gallons an hour. You gonna haul in 2.5 gallon rotopacks one at a time to keep it going?
Nuclear power plants have tough shielding. Allegedly the diesel generators are hidden underground. However, the diesel fuel supply is still vulnerable.
Normally the diesel generators have enough fuel for 10 days. However, ZNPP's diesel stockpile recently dipped to 4 days, according to 4chan leaker Inb4source.

Ukrainian saboteurs caught by ZNPP

On May 27, Ukraine accused Russian of planning to cause a leak at ZNPP:
OSINTdefender The Main Directorate of Intelligence for Ukraine has announced that the Russian Military is preparing for Large-Scale Provocation in the coming hours at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in Southern Ukraine that will reportedly Simulate an “Accident” at the Plant causing the Emergency Leak of Radioactive Substances which will be Blamed on Ukrainian Forces.
Then Russia announced it had caught saboteurs (presumably Ukrainian) in ZNPP's city:
Saboteurs who were preparing terrorist attacks on the NPP were detained in Energodar. They had with them maps and schematics of the nuclear power plant with marks for strikes that could lead to a nuclear catastrophe. The suspects are involved in collecting and transmitting information about the facilities of the Zaporozhye NPP on the instructions of the Ukrainian authorities. To communicate with the curators, they used foreign satellite systems, as well as foreign weapons for strikes and equipment for conducting reconnaissance and sabotage activities.
Enerhodar is the city that contains the ZNPP: See Enerhodar Wikipedia
Some object that the footage is "staged". Of course it is staged. The primary consumer of the helmet-cam footage is Russian military intelligence. The evidence shot was staged for their benefit. The short edited video that was released to the public has distorted voices, and avoids showing any faces. Thus even if the footage is authentic, it is still "staged".
The ZNPP maps displayed in the video don't appear to match the announcement text. The maps could simply show where diesel fuel trucks need to go. Russia does not wish to advertise the specific nature of ZNPP's vulnerability.
The saboteurs appear to be 3-man team, equipped with 3 rifles and 3 NLAW missile launchers.
The saboteurs had 5 frag grenades. Normally soldiers carry 2 or 3 grenades, but heavy weapons soldiers don't have to. The three smooth grenades are RGD-5s, a cheap outdated Russian model. The Russian troops removed the fuses from the grenades on the evidence table to avoid unpleasant surprises.
Some object that Ukrainian saboteurs wouldn't be so careless as to have printouts of the reactor map. However, the saboteurs' presence in Enerhodar already makes their target obvious. Presumably multiple teams were sent to intercept Russian diesel shipments.
The Enerhodar saboteurs would've been notified when satellites spotted their target. Until then, they should hide in the safehouse behind blackout curtains to avoid detection. The fact that these saboteurs were caught napping suggests a degree of incompetence, compared to other teams who presumably either avoided detection or fought back. One can assume that Ukrainian specops have suffered extreme casualties.

BB / Red Skull / Inb4source / Q

BB sent Q

Qanon has lost a tremendous amount of popularity, as patriots grew disillusioned with the slow pace of the promised Great Awakening. They did not understand that Q is subordinate to a higher power with an agenda that does not necessarily include their survival.
Q aimed to help Trump save the USA. Q was sent by "Burning Bush", whose agenda is judging humanity, on the eve of WW3 and runaway de-terraforming. BB's personas started posting to 4chan's pol by 2016, whereas Q started in October 2017. (4chan is like the wild west of the Web: The world's spooks congregate there to exchange intelligence.)
BB goes by several nicknames; he began posting anonymously as "Inb4source" in 2016. A recent message implies the USA/Israel is Babylon the Great, and God (meaning him) has returned to judge her:
The world has turned it's back on *od now *od Is turning His back on the world. He Who Lets has been REMOVED. THE ANGEL OF DEATH HAS COME THE HARVEST OF THE TARES HAS BEGUN. And after these things I saw another angel come down from heaven, having great power; and the earth was lightened with his glory. (Earthquake Lights) And he cried mightily with a strong voice, saying, Babylon the great is fallen, is fallen, and is become the habitation of devils, and the hold of every foul spirit, and a cage of every unclean and hateful bird. For all nations have drunk of the wine of the wrath of her fornication, and the kings of the earth have committed fornication with her, and the merchants of the earth are waxed rich through the abundance of her delicacies. And I heard another voice from heaven, saying, Come out of her, my people, that ye be not partakers of her sins, and that ye receive not of her plagues. For her sins have reached unto heaven, and God hath remembered her iniquities. Reward her even as she rewarded you, and double unto her double according to her works: in the cup which she hath filled fill to her double. How much she hath glorified herself, and lived deliciously, so much torment and sorrow give her: for she saith in her heart, I sit a queen, and am no widow, and shall see no sorrow. (nothing ever happens) Therefore shall her plagues come in one day, death, and mourning, and famine; and she shall be utterly burned with fire: for strong is the Lord God who judgeth her. And the kings of the earth, who have committed fornication and lived deliciously with her, shall bewail her, and lament for her, when they shall see the smoke of her burning, inb4source
BB claims responsibility for the historical pendulum swinging rightward, via figures such as Elon Musk. His method of influence is the butterfly effect.
"Burning Bush" claims to be God. One can think of him as the God of the Old Testament, or as a pagan god like Zeus, or as merely a transcendent extraterrestrial. However, he also claims to inhabit a human-looking body, lives on a ranch in the USA, has children, caught COVID19, etc.
Whatever one's theology, the relevant portion of BB's message is that the USA did not sufficiently embrace the opportunity offered by Q. Anyone who has read the Old Testament knows what happens next: Ignore the prophet, reap the consequences. Thus Q's slogan "Nothing Can Stop What Is Coming" should be understood in the Biblical sense, like Noah's flood: The Ark is optional.
(As far as I know, Q is still posting to Truth Social. I don't follow that site.)
Paul Furber is the chief priest of BB. Before that, he was a major early proponent of Q. See Furber's book for many verifiable examples of fulfilled predictions and proven scoops.
BB normally identifies himself by the unique image hash of his burning bush picture. (Nobody can generate that hash unless they possess the original image.) However, BB also posts as an anon users nickname "Red Skull", for his signature images of red skulls. As Red Skull, BB avoids the extravagant Biblical claims of BB, but the style and modus operandi and interests are obviously the same – as are his implied godlike powers.
I recommend focusing on facts and trying to prevent nuclear WW3, rather than getting hung up on theology. BB is not asking anyone to worship him or sacrifice chickens. He does prescribe prayer and a life of action governed by virtue.
I certainly do not recommend taking everything anonymous spooks say at face value. If you are, like most people, unable to think in shades of gray between binary true and false, this essay is above your reading level.

BB warns Zaporizhia is pivotal

BB has repeatedly warned that keeping Zaporizhia intact is critical to the survival of NATO citizenry:
the Ukrainians attacking the Nuclear Power station in the hands of the Russians spewing radiation over enough territory that the Russians will turn Kiev into a furnace.
– BB 2022-9-24
Find other warnings by searching for keyword "nuclear".
Those who find it difficult to believe that nuclear weapons would be used in WW3 as in WW2 should note that COVID19 is already a bioweapon WMD deployed for WW3.

RS gives ZNPP sabotage warning

On the morning of May 27, BB's persona Red Skull leaked that NATO specops had sabotaged external power to ZNPP.
His scenario is plausible and severe enough to warrant investigation.
Here are relevant posts, datestamped 2023 May 27 0300-0500:
it's a little less than ten days… Until Nato SpecOps melt down the Uke Nuke plant and blames it on you.
He continues:
Nato SpecOps have sabotaged power to the nuke plant. As of this posting, 6 days of diesel fuel remain to provide power to pumps to cool the plant and spent fuel pool. Diesel shipments are being targeted and terminated.
He adds:
So now I need to tell you Russia intends a pre emptive strike if nuclear capable F16's are delivered.
On the evening of May 27, Red Skull updated:
Doesn't look good at Nuke Plant. Russia has 4 days to get more fuel to the generators. They are working on clearing a flight path. Ukraine will try to stop them on orders of U.S. Uniparty.
Sounds like a severe leak, to lose 2 days of fuel in under 24 hours.

Ukraine HVT: Nuclear tit for tat

On 28 May Red Skull asserted that:
Red Skull approved of this anon's summary:
Nuclear warheads that USA/UK sent. Specifically for the purpose of being exploded in Ukraine. The false flags will never stop until all out WW3 is declared, or until you root out the pedophile demon cult that is running the show and sending you monkeys to war. War for really no good reason at this point. The cities are destroyed, just withdraw. Ukraine is a kettle right now, a kill box. Do you understand what that means? And it was created on purpose.
On May 30, Putin announced that Russia had destroyed the Ukrainian military intelligence headquarters. Photos confirm the damage.
Intelligence chief Kyrylo Oleksiyovych Budanov may have died in the strike.

Inb4source / Red Skull 4chan posting history

Inb4source has posted on 4chan since 2016, but he doesn't always use an image hash identifier, making it impossible to verify the identity of all of his early posts. As his popularity grew, others began adopting his catchphrase ">inb4source".
18016 posts on pol contain ">inb4source".
The first page of results suggests Inb4source is a pro-Trump military intelligence officer. He began posting in Aug 2016, before Trump's inauguration.
Another early Inb4source catchphrase is "I AM The Source." This has a double meaning, both theological and journalistic.
The catchphrase doesn't appear in every Inb4source post. Searching for it yields 437 results, too many of which are irrelevant results.
Searching for both phrases together yields 50 results that look to be mostly legitimate. One could then search for additional posts by each unique ID from a session.
Searching for image hashes is a reliable method of ID verification, assuming no one else has the image. I know of two such images that Inb4source/BB uses: both are red skulls, giving him the nickname RS.
RS just announced that his devices (phone, computers) have been compromised, casting doubt on the legitimacy of future RS posts. This may be a response to my publication of his warnings regarding Zaporizhia onto Reddit and Gab; the timing is suspicious. I first mentioned Inb4source on Reddit 7 days ago, and Red Skull on Gab yesterday (as of morning June 3). I do not know of any other analysts writing about him or connecting him to his BB persona.
When evaluating his warnings and predictions, remember that publishing info about ongoing events can affect the outcome, and is often intended to do so. Unlike the concept of Biblical prophecy, the future is mostly probabilistic. However, he is certainly good at scooping the news.
Someone else can do an in-depth Q-proof style analysis of his accuracy; my focus here is Zaporizhia.
Read original with links here.
submitted by KoanicSoul to NurembergTwo [link] [comments]

2023.06.03 04:27 rangermanlv Long Logs, Black River, P16 wont work. Help?

Anyway. Anyone got any ideas on how I can get past this? Is there just another truck that's got off-road or mud tires AND diff lock AND AWD that can mount a long log carrier on the front or am I missing something here? I thought of maybe putting some long logs on the loading area and taking my HX520 and dropping them as far in front of the P16 as I can to act as towing anchors maybe but I havent tried it yet. ONLY reason i'm not using the T813 is because you can't put a log bed on it for long logs, otherwise I LOVE that thing. Any other ideas?
Well unfortunately my joy of getting to and garaging my first P16 was short lived. After seeing several posts about it being THEE logging truck. It's not. Disappointment. The only thing I can think of is it's because it dosent have any kind of AWD. I garaged it in Black river to go get some long logs from the log camp there for "Timber for the Locals" And come to find out with a simple load of long logs, it can't even get out of the mud at the loading area. Brought my International HX520 with the log crane to clear out the log debris from unhooking the trailer while it was loaded with logs and managed to do that, only to find my HX520 is now stuck in the mud also. I mean c'mon game WTF? I know this is designed to be a kind of harder game, and I got all the DLC thank god because that Tatra T813 saved my ass for alot of missions in Black River, but c'mon, this long logs mission is the last one I have on Black River. I like to finish a map before I move on to the next one but I've found with this game it's kinda designed so you have to move on and leave some missions for later on till you have the right equipment/level to unlock improvements....etc.
Anyway. Anyone got any ideas on how I can get past this? Is there just another truck that's got off-road or mud tires AND diff lock AND AWD that can mount a long log carrier on the front or am I missing something here? I thought of maybe putting some long logs on the loading area and taking my HX520 and dropping them as far in front of the P16 as I can to act as towing anchors maybe but I havent tried it yet. ONLY reason I'm not using the T813 is because you can't put a log bed on it for long logs, otherwise I LOVE that thing. Any other ideas?
submitted by rangermanlv to snowrunner [link] [comments]

2023.06.03 02:26 mxsifr Found this on an old laptop, inspired by one of my first CDDA runs a few major versions ago (yes I save scummed my first night)

Day 1. I guess no one is ever going to read this. I’m not even sure if this is being recorded… somewhere. The Internet has been down since all this started. Is there still a cloud? I found this laptop, but it doesn’t work like any computer I’ve used before. I don’t even know if this is a real notepad app.
What the fuck is “vim”?
Sorry… I’ve never written a diary before. I’m not used to having enough time to keep a diary.
Looks like I spoke too soon. Another explosion…
Day 2. Something weird happened last night. I’m trying not to think about it. There's one other person at the shelter here, Merlin. He smokes a lot of cigarettes, basically all the time.
Day 3. Taking inventory. I managed to get into one of the houses on the outskirts of town last night. Mostly I snuck through, only had to take one down with a pointy stick. It was a kid... I got in through an open window, tied a sheet around my shoulders, and stuffed in everything I could before running back.
I feel a little like a hoarder going over things like this, but these are now my only posessions in the world, so I’d better keep track of them:
Day 4. Saw a weird dog today.
Day 5. The blue house on the corner has bugs in the basement. Big, mean bugs. Hulking, skittering roaches that screamed bloody murder…
What is happening?
I managed to get out and shut the door, so I wrote a note on the door just in case some unlucky soul stumbles on it later.
Day 6. Found a motorcycle and managed to get it back to the shelter without dying. That might come in handy.
Day 7. If this is the apocalypse, it's surprisingly routine already. I wile away the daylight reading comic books and survival manuals so I can sneak into the city at night. I break into a house, tie a makeshift sling from some curtains and scoop whatever looks useful or edible into it. I always bring some gallon jugs in my walkabout bag to fill with water to boil from their heaters and toilet basins. I usually have to kill and scrap with at least five of them per night. Sometimes it gets bad and I have to take out my pistol. When I get home, I take an aspirin, disinfect and bandage my wounds, reload my pistol magazines, write in here and go to bed.
Day 12. Ever had a pickle and spam sandwich? Nowhere near as bad as you might expect. Better than starving to death, that’s for sure. Tonight I’m washing it down with some room-temperature beer, celebrating my first week.
Day 13. I woke up to one of them on top of me today. Another fucking corpse for the pit out back. I think they can smell us. One of them got Merlin pretty bad, but he’s just standing outside where it happened smoking. He won’t say anything to me. I ripped up some curtains and dipped them in some bleach I found in the basement to dress the wounds… he’s really bleeding a lot.
Day 15. Saw the dog again. It was blurry, like a nightmare on an old VHS tape.
Day 19. They swarmed me today. I might need to get out of here at some point. I’ve been making an inventory of all the surrounding vehicles. Most are out of gas or otherwise inoperable.
Day 20. It took me an hour of fiddling in the pitch dark, but I managed to hotwire a sports car with all four wheels and some fuel still in the tank. Something came over me as I started driving it back to the shelter, though. I turned on the headlights, and I saw four or five of them, just walking around the street. They all turned to me, and I just gunned it. I blew through them and kept gunning it, and crashed into the side of a house.
It’s totaled.
Back to the drawing board, I guess.
Day 22. Organizing my weapons tonight. I was able to take down a loiterer in the lockroom of the pawn shop on the corner through the bars with my duct-taped knife spear, which I have dubbed "Glamdring". The hacksaw I found in the blue house’s garage made short work of the lockroom bars, and I made it back with an assortment of pistols. I unloaded everything and managed to produce two fully-loaded magazines. 34 bullets and some change… once I use those, that’s it until I scavenge some more. I rifled through the heap of clothing I’ve scavenged and found an ammo pouch to strap to my leg. I’m still not great with the pistol, and the noise is not helpful, but having it makes me feel a lot better.
Day 30. I finally made it to the fucking hardware store, and I still couldn’t find a wood saw. So much for my advanced fortifications and spear repairs. At least I’ve got all the windows boarded up, except one. It’s nice to have a little sunlight to read and sew by during the day.
Day 32. The weird dog bit me. It chased me back to the shelter and Merlin fended it off. I hope he’s okay.
Day 33. Merlin won’t come back to the shelter. He’s just standing out there, bleeding and smoking. Like always.
Day 37. Today I found some binoculars on another little kid. I think I recognized it... her.
It.
On the way back to the shelter, I climbed up on the roof of that three-story house on the outskirts of town and took a look around. I think a plane went down in the forest. I’m going to get that bicycle I saw in front of the pawn shop and investigate. I’m only alive because Merlin saved me… maybe it’s time to pay it forward.
What else is there to do besides practice stabbing and cooking spam?
Day 40. They were all dead. One of them almost electrocuted me. The sparks started a fire and I managed to lead them into it, one by one. There was a flare gun in the cockpit and some more food in the back. But that first one... it's been over a month, and I've never seen anything like that before. I'm pretty sure it threw lightning at me. Like... on purpose. I couldn't move for a few seconds, and it just kept getting closer, I thought I...
That thing that happened... on my first night
Fuck. They’re tearing out the windows again.
What’s the point in fighting?
Day whatever the fuck it is. 59 I think. I’m still trying to process the shit that happened on day one, so does it really matter?
I can’t stop thinking about their faces. When they’re eating, because I saw one eating yesterday, it didn't know I was there and I was just.... hypnotized, I guess. But when they eat, their faces are like... caricatures, cartoons, contorted in throes of passion that could be agony or pleasure. Some of them could almost be human. Others clearly died and rotted long before this all started.
Day 60. It was me.
That first night, I saw ... myself. It was so cold out when I was falling asleep on the bench, winter’s last chill. And as I was falling asleep, I thought to myself, “This is how inexperienced idiots like you die, you know. If one of them doesn’t crawl in through the broken windows, the cold will do you instead.” But after the things I saw that day, I wasn’t sure I wanted to wake up. So I just... let myself fall asleep.
I was so, so cold. I could barely feel anything, except, then ... my heart started racing, because I realized how close I came. And I fell flailing off the bench, bruised my forehead.
I finally came to my senses and stood up, and realized there had been someone next to me on the bench.
Me.
I was there, physically, in front of myself, except dead and naked, all my clothes on the floor in front of the corpse.
No, not all of them, actually. Everything, from my jeans to my wristwatch… except the face wrap and mittens that I scrounged together from rags.
That’s right. When I woke up, I couldn’t feel my face or my hands, and before I even stood and turned back to the bench, I went and ripped up some curtains to wrap around them. So it was everything I was wearing when…
I stuffed it all in a locker and dragged the corpse outside to put it in the pile. I was panicking because I was sure Merlin would notice, but he just stood there smoking his cigarette.
Everyone is dead. The laptop, the binoculars… I took them all off the corpses of people I killed. Or, killed again, I guess. I can’t imagine it makes a difference. The kid almost killed me. I guess I killed me, too.
Day 61. Sorry. That plane crash really fucked me up. I don’t know why I thought there’d be anyone alive.
I don’t know why I’m alive. Is it just dumb luck? I’m here. I’ve adapted. For better or worse.
Day 62. They broke in through the last intact window. I just finished boarding it up. Now there’ll be no sunlight in here again unless I leave the door wide open.
I need to fucking get out of here.
Day 63. hey... tHere's another app on this computer
Day 64. It was an emergency message. It's not just me. There are other people out there. Survivors. I'm leaving tonight. I couldn't convince Merlin to come with me. How does he still have cigarettes?! Whatever... this rancid shelter will be in my past forever soon.
Some kind of huge abomination chased me out of town this afternoon. I thought I had cleared this area out. It was ... giant, like a fleshy skeleton with horrible bug eyes... I'm getting out of here. I hope it doesn't get Merlin.
The survivor hub is a month's walk away, and that's if I can't find a car on the way. Too bad my bike exploded...
I've hoarded enough gear that I can camp out to sleep through the day, and creep through the cities for supplies at night. I hope there's someone there to greet me when I arrive...
submitted by mxsifr to cataclysmdda [link] [comments]

2023.06.03 01:43 buchashroom Lemon Grove Homeless commu ity

I'm looking for information about the homeless community in Lemon Grove. My best friend is missing and was last known to be living in the homeless encampment by the Otay River. I heard the camp was demolished and a lot of the residents moved into hotels in the Lemon Grove area. I'm planning a trip out there (I live in Minnesota) to try to locate him. I know I may be searching in some dangerous areas but I need to find my friend so I'm looking for any information that can help me find him safely.
submitted by buchashroom to sandiego [link] [comments]

2023.06.03 01:27 next3days For those in Blacksburg: Weekend Event Rundown

For anyone in town for the summer who's looking for events to enjoy this weekend, here's 25 local events you can enjoy and participate in on Saturday & Sunday.
1. 2023 Pulaski County Spring Flea Market New River Valley Fairgrounds, Dublin Saturday, June 3, 2023 and Sunday, June 4, 2023, 7:00 AM - 5:00 PM Admission: $2.00, Kids 6 and Under: Free The Dublin Lions Club presents the 2023 Pulaski County Spring Flea Market celebrating 48 years. With over 20,000 visitors and 700 vendors spaces, more than a dozen different food vendors offering varied food options and the chance to eat a few of the famous "Lion Dogs", you will not want to miss this event. Check out vendors with crafts, antiques and more at the semi-annual Pulaski County Flea Market. Although over 100 spaces are under roof, it is a largely an outdoor event. The terrain is varied from asphalt, gravel and grass. Parking is free. All proceeds go to the Dublin Lions and their numerous community causes such as eyeglasses for the needy and hunger relief in the community. The event is rain or shine. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708165
2. Kunga Fest 2023: Two-Day Donations Yoga Festival In Balance Yoga Studio, Blacksburg Friday, June 2, 2023, 4:00 - 10:00 PM and Saturday, June 3, 2023, 8:30 AM - 5:00 PM Yoga classes and events are by donation. In Balance Yoga Studio presents their 10th Kunga Fest, a two-day Donations Yoga Festival with 100% of the donations donated to directly support the Homes of Hope Orphanage in India. Homes of Hope is a safe space for orphaned, abandoned, or trafficked young girls in India. In Balance Yoga is offering 15 donation-based classes throughout the two-day event. Hot yoga, ariel yoga, yoga classes with live music and gentle flow, are just some of the options offered. A silent auction will also be offered with bidding open until 6:00 PM on Saturday, June 3rd. Over 20 items are in the auction including a private ariel yoga session, a one-hour reiki session, an acupuncture session and more! Yoga classes and events are by donation though registration is required. Membership is not required to attend however new students will have to create an online profile in order to register. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708207
3. National Trails Day: Appalachian Trail Volunteer Trail Work Pearis Cemetary / Appalachian Trailhead Parking, Pearisburg Saturday, June 3, 2023, 9:00 AM - 4:00 PM Admission: Free The Outdoor Club at Virginia Tech is hosting Appalachian Trail Volunteer Trail Work for National Trails Day meeting at the Appalachian Trailhead Parking at Pearis Cemetary. The first Saturday of June each year is designated as National Trails Day, a day to celebrate our National Trails. There are a variety of volunteer opportunities available throughout the Trail. Essential trail maintenance helps protect natural resources and improves the hiking experience. Activities planned for the day include removing tress that have fallen across the Trail and are obstructing its path, cleaning out water bars and other trail tread structures of debris so that they can effectively divert water from the Trail and continue to help reduce erosion, as well as trimming back woody bushes that might be encroaching on the sides of the Trail. This work will be taking place on Hemlock Ridge, the stretch of Trail between the Celenese plant and Clendennin Road. There will be a shuttle planned to allow for a 3-mile hike through, performing work along the way. No previous experience required and all ages are welcome. The club will provide tools, training, and personal protective equipment. While it is free to volunteer, registration is required to ensure enough supplies will be available. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708056
4. American Red Cross Blood Drive with Brunch Meadowbrook Public Library, Shawsville Saturday, June 3, 2023, 9:00 AM - 2:00 PM Admission: Free Meadowbrook Public Library and the Meadowbrook Center hosts an American Red Cross Blood Drive. Help save a life by donating blood. Brunch will be provided for donors and they may select a used book to take home. Books compliments of Friends of the Library-Meadowbrook Chapter. The blood drive is sponsored by Craighill Masonic Lodge and Meadowbrook Library. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708083
5. CIMA Open House Christiansburg Institute Museum and Archives, Christiansburg Saturday, June 3, 2023, 10:00 AM - 2:00 PM Admission: Free Christiansburg Institute Museum & Archives staff will lead museum guests on a behind the scenes tour of our archives and explain the digitization process. Explore the history of Christiansburg Institute and African American history in Southwest Virginia. No registration is required. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708171
6. Survival Skills Workshop Series: Part 2: Edible and Medicinal Plants Pulaski County Library, Pulaski Saturday, June 3, 2023, 11:00 AM - 12:00 PM Admission: Free The Pulaski County Library continues their Survival Skills Workshop Series with "Part 2: Edible and Medicinal Plants". Learn about edible and medicinal plants and enjoy some pine needle tea. Join them to learn important survival skills from a Claytor Lake ranger. This is the second part of a four-part course that will help you to brush up our survivalist knowledge and skills. All are welcome but these will be gauged for adults. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=707463
7. 2023 Gospel Sing St. Luke and Odd Fellows Hall, Blacksburg Saturday, June 3, 2023, 12:00 - 4:00 PM Admission: Free Blacksburg Museum and Cultural Foundation presents the annual Gospel Sing. The afternoon will be filled with singing, dancing, and fellowship as six local groups including Simple Gifts, Indian Run, Glorylanders and soloists perform their favorite current and old-time gospel favorites. Food and beverage will be available for purchase. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708172
8. Historic Smithfield's June Crafters' Stitch Along Historic Smithfield, Blacksburg Saturday, June 3, 2023, 12:00 - 3:00 PM Admission: Free Historic Smithfield presents June's Crafters' Stitch Along. You don't have to stitch to participate. Bring whatever craft you would like to work on and feel free to bring your paints, pencils, hooks, yarn, needles or fabric. This event is free to attend though pre-registration is appreciated. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708189
9. Music at the Villa with Craig Vaughn Villa Appalaccia Winery, Floyd Saturday, June 3, 2023, 1:00 - 4:00 PM Admission: Free Relax and enjoy some great music along with great wine and food. Craig Vaughn is a musician that combines extraordinary musicianship with heavy-duty fun. His high energy blend of rock, blues, pop and acoustic music equals unforgettable moments for audiences. He seamlessly goes from playing Bob Marley to The Eagles to Johnny Cash to Tom Petty to Ed Sheering to Journey to Newgrass to The Steve Miller Band without missing a lick. Kids and well-behaved dogs welcome. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708180
10. Genealogy Saturdays Alexander Black House & Cultural Center, Blacksburg Saturday, June 3, 2023, 1:00 - 4:00 PM Admission: Free Ancestry experts will be on hand to assist you as you explore your family tree. Come with questions about research and discovering your roots. Join them on the first Saturday of every month for Genealogy Saturdays. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708173
11. Puzzle Swap Christiansburg Library, Christiansburg Saturday, June 3, 2023, 1:00 - 3:00 PM Admission: Free Bring your puzzles to swap for new-to-you puzzles. Please make sure that all pieces are there. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708134
12. June 2023 Cruiser Night Scoops Arcade, Pembroke Saturday, June 3, 2023, 5:00 - 8:00 PM Admission: Free Scoops Arcade continues their Cruiser Nights on Snidow Street in downtown Pembroke, VA. Show off your classic, modified, or new cars, trucks and bikes. Ride in style down the street and/or park and enjoy the atmosphere and oldies music. All vehicles and spectators are welcome. Hotdogs, corndogs, pizza, nachos, drinks and Scoops old fashion hand dipped ice cream and shakes will be available inside Scoops. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708196
13. Bobby and Blake Parker in Concert Rising Silo Farm Brewery, Blacksburg Saturday, June 3, 2023, 6:00 - 9:00 PM Admission: Free Rising Silo Farm Brewery presents Bobby and Blake Parker playing cozy folk music, blues and ragtime on 6- and 12-string guitar and more. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=707876
14. Chico and Willie in Concert Outerspace, Floyd Saturday, June 3, 2023, 6:00 - 9:00 PM Admission: Free Chico & Willie perform Americana music to make you smile outside at Outerspace. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708185
15. John McEuen & The Circle Band in Concert Floyd Country Store, Floyd Saturday, June 3, 2023, 7:00 - 10:00 PM General Admission: $38.00, Reserved Seating: $45.00 John McEuen has performed for 50 years worldwide with his banjo, fiddle, guitar, and mandolin. Often referred to as ‘the String Wizard’, he humorously weaves stories of his travels and family life (he has raised 7 kids), taking us on a multi-media show through where his musical path has taken him. A founding member of the Nitty Gritty Dirt Band in 1966, John realized his teenage dream: to record with Earl Scruggs and Doc Watson. When he initiated the 1972 classic "Will the Circle Be Unbroken" album with his band the Nitty Gritty Dirt Band, Earl and Doc with Roy Acuff, Mother Maybelle Carter, Jimmy Martin, Merel Travis, Vassar Clements, Norman Blake gathered for an historic week in the studio. The album has been inducted in to the Library of Congress as "one of America’s most important recordings" and the Grammy Hall of Fame. John has continually performed since 1963, doing over 11,000 concerts, 300 television shows, 10,000 interviews and flown more than 4 million miles. McEuen’s rich history of creating, producing and preserving original and traditional folk music earned him the 2013 Charlie Poole Lifetime Achievement Award. He has made over 46 albums (7 solo) that have earned four platinum and five gold records, multiple Grammy Awards and nominations, CMA and ACM awards, an Emmy film score nomination, IBMA record of the year award, and performed on another 25 albums as guest artist. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=707453
16. The CC Coates Band in Concert Dogtown Roadhouse, Floyd Saturday, June 3, 2023, 8:00 - 11:00 PM Admission: $8.00 The CC Coates Band performs blues, soul and rock n roll. Sung by the real deal and backed by a hell of a band. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708190
17. 2023 Check Farm Trail Downtown Check, Check Sunday, June 4, 2023, 10:00 AM - 6:00 PM Admission: Free Floyd Country Tourism presents the 2nd Annual Check Farm Trail at seven participating farms and businesses throughout Check, Virginia including Lil Valley Farm, Weathertop Farm, Grateful Produce, I-Tal Acres, Seven Spring's Farm and The Soup Shop. This family-friendly experience is an up-close chance to learn about agriculture through demonstrations, tastings and farm tours and more. Food and/or products will be available for purchase at most of the farms and businesses. Times and available hours vary by farm and tour stop. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708205
18. 2023 Rotary Club of Floyd Dog Show Warren G. Lineberry Memorial Park, Floyd Sunday, June 4, 2023, 12:15 - 3:00 PM Dogs: $5.00 entry per class, Spectators: Free though donations encouraged The Rotary Club of Floyd County presents their 4th Annual Rotary Dog Show. Bring your dog, puppy, and/or faithful canine friend to compete in one or more of the dog show classes and ribbons will be awarded for each class. Classes for Dog Show include Best Tail, Best Treat Catcher, Best Smile, Best Owner-Dog Look-a-Like Contest, Best Trick, Cutest Puppy Under One Year Old, Best Bark, Best Mixed Breed Dog, Best Purebred Dog, Best Child Handler Under 12 Years Old and more. All dogs must should be on a short leash and up to date on vaccinations. The Humane Society will also have a table and possibly dogs to adopt. Adults and children ages 9 and older are welcome to participate with their dog in the various classes. Proceeds will be used to help build a dog park in Floyd. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708176
19. Music Jam and Car Cruise-In Wildwood Farms General Store, Floyd Sunday, June 4, 2023, 1:00 - 4:00 PM Admission: Free Enjoy a cruise-in with a variety of classic cars, motorcycles and other vehicles from 1:00-4:00 PM. All are welcome to bring their vehicles. And, bring your instruments and join in the music jam from 2:00-4:00 PM. Admission is free and all are welcome including non-musicians. The event is weather permitting. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708018
20. Clay Blevins in Concert Buffalo Mountain Brewery, Floyd Sunday, June 4, 2023, 1:00 - 4:00 PM Admission: Free Clay Blevins performs a signature mix of old and new country, pop and singer songwriter tunes. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708153
21. Book Club Meeting: Corkscrew Blacksburg Wine Lab, Blacksburg Sunday, June 4, 2023, 1:00 - 3:00 PM Admission: $40.00 Blacksburg Wine Lab presents their June Book Club Meeting featuring the book "Corkscrew" by Peter Stafford-Bow. Josh from Well Crafted Wine has picked this book specifically for the book club and will be hosting the event. The book includes a whole chapter on South Africa and Josh is inspired to share a tasting of his favorite bottles with participants from this region, along with a selection of crafted bites from Chef Bryan. The ticket price includes the wine tasting, book discussion and crafted bites to accompany the wine. RSVP is required. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708208
22. Matt Mullins in Concert Rock House Marina, Pulaski Sunday, June 4, 2023, 3:00 - 5:00 PM Admission: Free Matt Mullins performs multiple genres of music and now resides from Beckley, West Virginia after a stay in Southwest Virginia. A loud and sometimes profanity filled personality, you can't help but love to hate his shake, rattle, and roll nonsense. By spending the better part of the last decade creating songs with some of his favorite artists, (in particular The Boatmen) it has helped shape this songwriters methodology. Relating to back porch memories, and moving listeners to undoubtedly feel that he's got music in his bones. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708090
23. Sunday Mountain Music Series with Kris Hale Mountain Lake Lodge, Pembroke Sunday, June 4, 2023, 4:00 - 6:00 PM Admission: Free Kristopher Hale is a native of Roanoke, Virginia. Currently a Adjunct Professor of Music at both Radford University and Lynchburg College in Virginia, he also teaches guitar and music theory privately throughout the New River Valley and Roanoke areas. He is a sought after performer, appearing in public and private events throughout Virginia playing classical music to The Beatles. Stop by Salt Pond Pub every Sunday starting Memorial Day weekend through Sunday, August 20th for live music and delicious food and drinks. Perfect for relaxing with the whole family (furry friends welcome too). Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=707866
24. Open Mic Night (Family Friendly and 18+ Segments) The Beast of Blacksburg Pizzeria & Bar, Blacksburg Sunday, June 4, 2023, 4:00 PM - 01:00 AM Admission: Free The Beast of Blacksburg Pizzeria & Bar kicks off their Open Mic Nights with two segments offering a full evening of local talent. From 4:00-8:00 PM, family friendly material will be performed and then from 9:00 PM - 1:00 AM, the open mic is open to adult material for ages 18 and up. Note: Any group acts of more than two performers should message them on Facebook to make the necessary arrangements. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708201
25. Mist on the Mountain in Concert Palisades Restaurant, Eggleston Sunday, June 4, 2023, 5:00 - 7:30 PM Admission: Free Mist on the Mountain is an Irish Traditional Music group based in the New River Valley of southwest Virginia. From lively jigs and reels to heartbreaking laments and rollicking ballads, Mist on the Mountain provides great Irish music for any occasion. Reservations are not required, but recommended for dining area seating. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708177
Have a great weekend and thanks for reading!
submitted by next3days to VirginiaTech [link] [comments]

2023.06.03 01:24 Late_Builder6990 Behemoth, Strange Beast

“Behold, Behemoth,
which I made as I made you;
He eats grass like an ox.
16 Behold, his strength in his loins,
and his power in the muscles of his belly.
17 He makes his tail stiff like a cedar;
the sinews of his thighs are knit together.
18 His bones are tubes of bronze,
His limbs like bars of iron.
19 “He is the first of the works of God;
let him who made him bring near his sword!
20 For the mountains yield food for him
where all the wild beasts play.
21 Under the lotus plants he lies,
in the shelter of the reeds and in the marsh.
22 For his shade the lotus trees cover him;
the willows of the brook surround him.
23 Behold, if the river is turbulent he is not frightened;
he is confident though Jordan rushes against his mouth.
24 Can one take him by his eyes,
or pierce his nose with a snare?” Job 40:15-24
Many Kaiju, and many large animals are given the title of Behemoth to describe their large size. And going as far back as the Biblical records, it was unclear as to what the Behemoth was in the scripture. That was until one Kaiju was given this name. However, Behemoth wasn't found in the Middle East, but deep in the Amazon. Xenotherium amazonensis “Strange Beast from the Amazon”.
Among the Mammalian Kaiju, Behemoth at first was hard to pin down where he fits until analysis of shed fur & genetics testing revealed that his closest relatives are ground sloths, being part of the Tribe Lestodontini. This is due to his massive tusks being similar to Lestodon & Thinobadistes. However, the strange clawed hands are convergently similar to Eremotherium & Megatherium.
Like other ground sloths, he has plates of bony skin, osteoderms that cover his back along with a larger dome cap of solid bone at the top of the head. Lastly, regarding Xenarthans in general, Behemoth has a low metabolism & poor color vision. The former results in him having a lower body temperature compared to a similarly sized mammalian Kaiju.
Behemoth might be the last of his kind. Extensive tunnels found in the Amazon that could only have been created by other members of his species and contained sub-fossil remains belonging to Xenotherium.
These reveal individuals of all ages with much longer trunks than what Behemoth has. Analysis of the area shows the tip is riddled with scar tissue, as if the majority of Behemoth’s trunk was either bitten or clawed off. By what is unknown. Much like other mammals with trunks such as Proboscideans & Tapirs who rely on their trunks for feeding, the reduced length would have negative consequences. . . if Behemoth also didn’t have a long muscular tongue to assist in foraging.
A final point of discussion is how Behemoth’s body has incorporated plant life growing on his body. Much like the diminutive Three-toed sloth, Behemoth’s fur is covered in plants, the main one being mats of moss on his limbs & torso. His tusks & arms also contain large hanging vines. This plant life is used as a temporary energy boost to support Behemoth in leaner times, but also can be used for offense.
Prior to being sealed away in the Kaiju Gems, Behemoth was seen hibernating deep in the Amazon Basin, not far from Fordlândia.
During the 2nd Kaiju War, Behemoth would be used by Dalton Goldenrod, and as such under command by Anguirus. The two are close friends, each bonding over how they maintain care of the land.
  1. Behemoth, Strange Beast
  2. Appearance: Not unlike his appearance in KOTM. Though the tusks are asymmetrical- left one is shorter & pointed forward while the right one is longer & curving. Raised osteoderms cover his back like some retro paleo-art of Ground sloths. Walks on knuckles and side of his back feet. Coat of fur varies based on climate- woolly in colder regions & shorter in warmer regions. A short tail is a fat reserve and counterweight for his large tusks.
  3. Origin: Fordlandia, Northern Brazil
  4. Species: Lestodont (Xenotherium amazonensis)
  5. Quote: “He’s not fat! He’s just poofy!”- Dalton defending Behemoth’s appearance
  6. Roar: KOTM mixed with low-frequency elephant rumbles & trumpets
  7. Category: 4
  8. Faction: Earth Defender
  9. Height: 107 meters tall (quadruped) 152 meters (biped)
  10. Length: 54 meters (Tusks) 108 meters long (body)
  11. Weight: 54,000 tons
  12. Land Speed: Slow
  13. Burrowing Speed: Slow
  14. Swimming Speed: Slow
  15. Damage Type: Edged & Impact
  16. Physical Attacks: Headbutt, tusks, punches, body-checks, stomps
  17. Abilities:
  18. Immune to conventional weaponry
  19. Durability aided by fatty skin & osteoderms covering his back, resulting in his hide being moderately resilient against energy attacks. Osteoderms are infused with metals & other minerals, aiding his defense against intense heat.
  20. Huge tusks used for combat for bludgeoning & goring.
  21. Powerful arms capable of carving through stone & steel, & rending flesh with ease.
  22. Any plant spores he leaves behind will take root, helping restore ecosystems.
  23. Body covered in moss and vines crisscross his arms & tusks.
  24. Able to pick up low-frequency ultrasounds for communication but also able to detect hidden opponents, even those underground.
  25. Some level of regenerative power, able to regrow damaged or broken tusks.
  26. Fur coat changes based on the climate- shaggy fur for colder climates and less fur in hotter climates.
  27. Poo serves as excellent fertilizer.
  28. Superpowers:
  29. Phytokinesis: Behemoth’s plants are for more than just storing energy. They can also be used for offense & defense. This includes forming extra armor on his torso in the form of osteoderm/tough bark and the vines on his arms & tusks can be extended into long thorny whips for his main use of long range attack that isn’t throwing debris. Behemoth’s arms & tusks can sprout spiky thorns to add extra sharp points in physical combat and deter grappling.
  30. Seismic Stomps: Behemoth’s other ranged attack is less focused. By focusing much of his weight into a single fist or his tusks, and slamming downwards, this Tusked sloth can generate localized earthquakes to knock opponents over or destabilize the ground.
  31. Cactus Wall: Behemoth’s trump card combines both his Phytokinesis & Seismic stomps to create a veritable bramble wall of cacti. (Essentially a wall of Rhodocactus trees). This wall is easily taller than Behemoth and is used as a last resort of defense and primarily a way to buy time. This wall, while impressive, does have flaws. Depending on location, the bramble wall can be walked around, flown over, or dug under. The wall can also be set ablaze or hacked apart which will take time.
  32. Weaknesses:
  33. Lacking in beam projectiles
  34. Extremely sharp blades, such as Gigan’s Rotary Cutter or Multi-Blades, can cut deep into his hide.
  35. Slow speed
  36. Limited use Mana
submitted by Late_Builder6990 to Monsterverse [link] [comments]

2023.06.03 01:14 Pyroski The War of 1839, Part IV Pine & Liberty

The War of 1839, Part IV Pine & Liberty
Battle of Massachusetts Bay
With the U.S. Navy strategically positioned in Narragansett Bay, Commanding General Winfield Scott collaborated with Rear Admiral Charles Stewart to implement an effective blockade strategy. The plan entailed Stewart undertaking a blockade of the Massachusetts Bay to sever the supply lines to Boston and Quincy. Scott and Stewart, both high-ranking military officials, believed that this tactic would not only diminish the morale of the opposing troops through deprivation but also establish a passage for the deployment of troops and vessels via the bay, facilitating a two-front invasion.
On February 9th, Rear Admiral Stewart initiated an attack, marking the beginning of a relentless naval bombardment. The assault commenced with the arrival of a formidable U.S. Navy fleet led by Commodore Matthew C. Perry. This fleet consisted of several warships, including steam-powered vessels armed with heavy cannons, and had the objective to displace the existing Yankee presence patrolling the bay and establish their own presence in their place.
The naval bombardment unleashed a relentless barrage of cannon fire and explosive shells upon the opposing ships and fortifications in the bay. The American warships strategically positioned themselves, utilizing their superior firepower and extended range to wreak havoc on the enemy's defenses. Under the command of Rear Admiral John C. Percival, the Yankee forces fiercely attempted to resist the onslaught, returning fire from their ship's cannons stationed along the coast. However, the overwhelming firepower and precision of the American navy proved to be a decisive advantage.
The intense naval bombardment took a toll on the ships engaged in battle. After four days of relentless fighting, on February 13th, Rear Admiral Percival ordered a retreat as U.S. ships swiftly filled the void, effectively establishing a blockade of the Massachusetts Bay. The withdrawal was necessitated by the overwhelming presence and continued firepower of the American Navy, ensuring their control over the strategic waterway.
Battle of Cambridge
strategy and focused on capturing Cambridge as a means to take control of Boston, Massachusetts. Cambridge's strategic importance stemmed from its proximity to Boston and its position on the opposite side of the Charles River, making it a crucial gateway to the city. Gaining control of Cambridge would provide an invading force with a foothold on the eastern side of the river, potentially facilitating easier access to Boston itself.
On Monday, February 20th, Winfield Scott began mobilizing troops along the borders of neighboring settlements, including Quincy, Watertown, and Allston. However, it wasn't until the 28th that Scott issued the order for troops to initiate an assault, once he had assembled a substantial force of 4,000 soldiers along the border. Meanwhile, armed with intelligence regarding the movements of the U.S. troops, Churchill anticipated an attack on either Cambridge or Boston and took defensive measures, including fortifications and deploying troops in both cities.
On the 27th, Scott held consultations with John E. Wool and Thomas J. Worth, informing them of his intended timing for launching the offensive. He designated Wool to lead an attack from Quincy and Worth to lead from Watertown. Wool would assume the role of commanding general for the battle, while Scott and Rear Admiral Charles Stewart focused on developing the strategy for the subsequent phase of the plan—the capture of Boston.
On the 28th, Major General Wool initiated his division's march towards Cambridge in an attempt to avoid detection by Sylvester Churchill's troops, whom he believed were deployed in the settlements between Quincy and Cambridge. To minimize the risk of exposure, Wool decided to commence the march early in the morning, navigating through rural and wooded areas to evade Yankee troops. Following the same tactics, Worth also set out towards Cambridge later as instructed.
In the late morning, Worth launched the assault by mobilizing artillery to weaken the defenses. However, the Yankee forces were already prepared and swiftly retaliated with a relentless barrage of fire upon the advancing troops. This intense exchange of fire between Worth's army and the defending Yankee soldiers persisted for nearly an hour.
Meanwhile, Wool's army continued its stealthy march through the woodlands and rural areas. Upon hearing the sound of gunfire in the distance, Wool deduced that the battle had begun prematurely and hastily directed the rest of his troops towards the source of the noise. Arriving nearly an hour into the battle, Wool's troops witnessed a fierce encounter between both sides, resulting in a stalemate. Nevertheless, Wool ordered his soldiers to target the Yankee soldiers with their rifles, creating space for Worth's men to fire artillery.
As the relentless barrage of artillery took its toll on the city's defenses, Childs, the commanding officer, ordered troops to reposition themselves further away from the crumbling defenses in anticipation of their eventual collapse. The troops followed the orders accordingly. Finally, around 3:00 P.M., the defenses started to give way, prompting Wool to command his troops to rush into Cambridge. However, they were met with a defensive line of Yankee soldiers who unleashed a volley of fire as soon as the U.S. soldiers entered the city. Simultaneously, Childs instructed soldiers to inform Churchill that both major generals had attacked Cambridge and to relocate troops from Boston to reinforce the defense of Cambridge.
Meanwhile, U.S. troops under the command of Major General Wool employed flanking maneuvers on both sides of the defensive line. Despite encountering difficulties in breaching the line, the U.S. troops persisted. After holding together for nearly two hours, the defensive line eventually collapsed under the pressure of the flanking maneuvers, leading to a breakthrough for the U.S. forces.
Illustration depicting the Battle of Cambridge, a fierce encounter between American and Yankee troops. The artwork portrays American and Yankee soldiers engaged in a fierce firefight.
With the significant breakthrough, U.S. forces swiftly advanced into Cambridge, pushing Yankee troops deeper into the settlement. Meanwhile, Childs made efforts to reorganize and create a diversion to buy enough time for Churchill's larger army to arrive. Eventually, as evening fell, Churchill appeared on the scene with the majority of his troops from Boston, adding 2,000 soldiers to their forces. This sudden increase in numbers enabled the Yankee forces to reclaim much of the territory in Cambridge that had been captured by the U.S. Army. Despite their success, the U.S. army's superior size and technological advancements prevented them from being entirely driven out of Cambridge.
As dusk approached, the battle persisted through the night, resulting in significant casualties on both sides. However, with a larger army, the U.S. forces fared better than the Yankees in enduring the losses, allowing them to gradually advance into Cambridge and reclaim lost territory. Throughout the night and into the morning, the conflict continued, with the darkness posing challenges for troops to coordinate tactical maneuvers. Consequently, engaging in intense hand-to-hand combat, the U.S. forces successfully pushed the opposition off the streets and deeper into Cambridge.
As the sun rose on the horizon, Sylvester Churchill made a bold move in an attempt to shift the course of the battle and thwart the advancing Americans from seizing what the commanding general deemed the final bastion of defense before they could effectively reach Boston. Determined to alter the tide of the conflict, Churchill issued orders for his troops to divide into smaller units, engaging in street fighting and employing guerrilla tactics. Churchill hoped that these strategic maneuvers would tip the scales of the battle in their favor.
Despite Churchill's optimism, Yankee tactics proved ineffective in impeding the U.S. invasion. Under the command of Wool, American troops strategically focused on maintaining a strong and unified front and countering the units employed by Churchill. The ambush and guerrilla tactics employed by the Yankees failed to overcome the superior size and strength of Wool's forces, leading to their defeat. Eventually, in the evening, as the city neared complete capture by American forces, Churchill consulted with his top military officials, including Major Generals Thomas Childs, Joseph Gilbert Totten, and Gideon Johnson Pillow, to negotiate a treaty with Wool. This treaty became the most notable agreement signed on the Atlantic Coast since the Second Siege of New Haven, which had occurred nearly a year prior.
During the negotiations, it was agreed that both armies would remain in a total armistice until a deal was reached. After intense discussions, the following terms were included in the final agreement:
  • Both armies agreed to refrain from engaging in any hostilities against each other in the region for a minimum of six weeks.
  • Prisoners of war from New England, captured during both the war and the previous Massachusetts campaign, were to be released and allowed to return to their homes. Wool advocated for similar conditions for American prisoners of war, but due to the presence of additional Yankee reinforcements in Boston and the Massachusetts militia, he ultimately withdrew his request, as he was concerned that these reinforcements could shift the balance of power in the Battle of Cambridge, should battle reignite.
  • The American army were to occupy the City of Cambridge and its buildings, as the Yankee army would withdraw.
  • That New England troops were allowed to withdraw from the city with their personal arms and equipment, including artillery and ammunition
  • Residents of Cambridge were permitted to remain in their homes and continue their daily activities without interruption.
The Boston Address
With the United Kingdom's agreement to join the war on February 6th, 1843, Samuel Cabot Jr. eagerly anticipated returning to New England to deliver the news. However, due to harsh weather conditions and ships already departing with letters and newspapers to inform Americans of this revelation, Cabot and his diplomats decided to postpone their voyage by a week, hoping for an improvement in the weather. Eventually, on February 13th, the diplomats set sail once again across the treacherous Atlantic Ocean, with Captain Nathaniel Brown Palmer resuming command of their ship, the "Columbia."
On Tuesday, March 21st, 1843, after several weeks at sea, the diplomats arrived at Massachusetts Bay, their intended docking destination since their departure. However, they were surprised to find foreign American ships occupying the bay, completely unaware of the ongoing armistice. Acting swiftly, the diplomats instructed Captain Palmer to redirect the vessels towards New Bedford, a port controlled by the Yankee navy. Previous attempts by U.S. forces, led by Admiral Mathew C. Perry to capture Buzzard's Bay had been unsuccessful. As a result, Rear Admiral Charles Stewart made the decision to modify the plan and forgo a coastal blockade of the region, as it was no longer deemed crucial. Thus, the diplomats successfully made an unplanned landing and found a secure harbor for their ship.
Upon receiving news of their impending arrival, which quickly spread throughout New England, the diplomats would be swiftly escorted to Daniel Webster's presidential office at the Hartford Estate in Boston, Massachusetts. Traveling via a stagecoach, they would soon reach their destination. As they arrived, they would be promptly ushered into Webster's office. Despite being aware of Britain's entry into the war, Webster anxiously awaited the arrival of his diplomats, as they had not arrived at the expected time.
The diplomats arrived to find Daniel Webster in an unexpectedly cheerful state, a stark contrast to his demeanor throughout his presidency. Webster had been burdened by a series of defeats in the War of 1839, Dorr's revolt, and the overall frustrations associated with his role as president. These hardships led Webster to seek solace in alcohol, resulting in alcoholism that became his coping mechanism for the grief caused by his presidential responsibilities. Furthermore, the weight of his challenges contributed to his depression, transforming him into a recluse who rarely ventured out of his office and spent a significant portion of his presidency consumed by excessive drinking.
Nevertheless, upon hearing the news of Britain's involvement in the war, Webster's spirits were lifted, restoring a sense of optimism within him that had not been seen since his presidential campaign. He eagerly, yet somewhat intoxicated, welcomed the diplomats into his office to engage in discussions regarding the Downing Street Conference, the negotiations, and the developments involving George Hamilton-Gordon, the Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs, and Prime Minister Robert Peel. Samuel Cabot Jr. relayed to Daniel Webster the concessions made on behalf of New England, which included a promise not to reinstate the Fugitive Acts, along with providing the intricate details of the conference(s).
On March 23rd, 1843 at the Federal States Hotel, in the midst of a challenging period for his administration, Daniel Webster, in an effort to regain public trust and address the critical newspapers that had emerged throughout his term, delivered one of the rare public speeches of the War of 1839. Throughout his term, newspapers critical of the Webster administration had become prevalent across New England. However, due to the Sedition Acts, these newspapers were eventually shut down. Moreover, the Federalists suffered significant electoral defeats during Webster's tenure, aware of the need to restore faith among citizens regarding the war and his administration, Webster took the opportunity to speak directly to the public, using his speech as a means to provide reassurance and address the challenges his administration faced.
Snippet of Webster's two-and-a-half-hour, "The Boston Address" speech:
[1] "Ladies and gentlemen,
I stand before you today, filled with the spirit of liberty and the burning desire to protect our great New England from the encroachments of tyranny and oppression. We find ourselves embroiled in a conflict of great magnitude, a war that will determine the very course of our destiny. Let it be known that this is no ordinary war, for it is a war fought not only with steel and powder, but with the indomitable will and unwavering determination of Yankee troops.
[2] My fellow countrymen, we gather here in the shadow of history, surrounded by the echoes of our forefathers who fought valiantly for the principles of freedom and justice. Today, we find ourselves faced with a foe whose arrogance knows no bounds, a foe that seeks to trample upon our liberties and extinguish the flame of independence that burns within every New Englander's heart. The United States of America, once our brethren, has once again forsaken the ideals of our Founding Fathers and has chosen to walk the path of oppression.
[9] Yet, let it not be forgotten that our cause is just and our resolve unyielding. Weeks ago, on the fateful day of February 6th, the United Kingdom, recognizing the righteousness of our struggle, joined our noble cause. The world now watches as the might of the British Empire stands united with us, against the very nation from which we once sought solace and support. This alliance is a testament to the righteousness of our cause, for it is not merely a battle of arms, but a battle of principles and ideals.
[15] This war is not just a struggle for independence; it is a fight against the abhorrent institution of slavery. The Fugitive Acts that have been passed by the United States have violated the very fabric of our moral conscience. They seek to rob men and women of their natural rights, to tear families apart, and to perpetuate an evil that stains the pages of our history. We, as New Englanders, must rise up against this injustice and prove to the world that we will not stand idly by while our fellow human beings suffer under the yoke of bondage.
[17] It is a fight to prove that New England is truly independent from America. We have defeated the United States once, and we can do it again. The blood that flows through our veins is the blood of patriots, of those who dared to challenge the status quo and forge a new path. We stand upon the shoulders of giants, and it is our duty to honor their sacrifice by preserving the principles they held dear. As we march forward, let us remember the sacrifices of those who came before us, and let their legacy guide us through the darkest of times.
[18] This war is not just about reclaiming our independence; it is a battle for the soul of our nation. It is a struggle to define the values and principles upon which our society is built. We fight for liberty, equality, and justice. We fight to ensure that the principles of our Founding Fathers are not trampled upon and forgotten. We fight to create a society where every person, regardless of their race or background, is treated with dignity and respect.
[21] This is a fight against the remnants of oppression and injustice. The Fugitive Acts, once passed by both the United States and New England, were a stain on our collective conscience. They sought to deny individuals their natural rights, tear families apart, and perpetuate the abhorrent institution of slavery. Recognizing the moral imperative to rectify this injustice, New England took a bold step forward and repealed these acts, paving the way for a more equitable society.
[22] Let us not forget the lessons of our past, for they shape the path we tread today. The New England Revolutionary War, fought with valor and determination, paved the way for our quest for independence. Our ancestors stood united against oppression, and their courage echoes in our hearts. And let us also remember the Hartford Convention, a pivotal moment in our history. It was there that our regional identity was forged, as we asserted our rights and voiced our grievances against unjust policies. From the fires of adversity, we emerged stronger, more resolute in our determination to protect our liberties and safeguard the interests of New England.
[26] Like their forefathers, in the face of adversity, our Yankee troops have shown a courage and determination that is unparalleled. They have weathered the storm of American aggression and stood firm in their conviction. They fight not only for the land upon which they tread but for the principles that make New England unique and distinct. They fight for the freedom of every man, woman, and child who calls this great region home.
[29] This war is not just a struggle for soveriegnity; it is a fight against the abhorrent institution of slavery. The Fugitive Acts that have been passed by the United States have violated the very fabric of our moral conscience. They seek to rob men of their natural rights, to tear families apart, and to perpetuate an evil that stains the pages of our history. We, as New Englanders, must rise up against this injustice and prove to the world that we will not stand idly by while our fellow human beings suffer under the yoke of bondage.
[31] As we engage in this epic struggle, let us not forget the sacrifices that have been made. Our brave soldiers have left their homes and families behind to fight for a cause they hold dear. They have endured the harsh realities of war, facing danger and uncertainty at every turn. We must honor their sacrifices by supporting them in every way possible, by standing behind them and providing them with the resources and care they need.
[34] This war is also a test of our unity and resilience as a people. We must put aside our differences and come together as one. We must recognize that the fight for freedom and justice knows no boundaries. It transcends political affiliations and personal interests. We must stand together, shoulder to shoulder, and show the world the strength and determination of the New England spirit.
[37] In this war, we are not alone. The international community watches as our struggle unfolds. The United Kingdom has joined our cause, recognizing the importance of our fight. We stand together, united in our commitment to freedom and justice. Our alliance sends a powerful message to the world that New England will not be silenced, that we will fight for what is right and just.
[41] We must also remember that the fight against slavery is central to this war. Slavery is a stain on the conscience of our nation. It is a practice that dehumanizes and oppresses our fellow human beings. We cannot and will not tolerate such an abomination. By fighting against slavery, we not only strike at the heart of injustice but also reaffirm our commitment to the principles of equality and freedom.
[43] As we engage in this great struggle, let us draw inspiration from the heroes of our past. Let us remember the battles fought by our forefathers, the sacrifices they made, and the triumphs they achieved. Their legacy lives on in us, and it is our duty to carry their torch forward.
[46] This war is not just about defeating the United States; it is about shaping the future of our region and our nation. It is about establishing New England as a beacon of liberty and progress. We have already demonstrated our ability to stand against the might of a powerful nation, and we can do it again. We have the strength, the courage, and the conviction to overcome any obstacle that stands in our way.
[49] In conclusion, my fellow New Englanders, let us remember why we fight. Let us remember the principles that have guided us throughout our history. We fight for independence, for freedom, for justice, and for the eradication of slavery. We fight to prove that New England is truly independent from America, and we fight to demonstrate our unwavering commitment to the principles of liberty and equality.
[51] As we march forward, let us do so with the knowledge that we are not alone. We are supported by the might of the British Empire, by the solidarity of our fellow New Englanders, and by the principles of justice and righteousness that guide our cause. Together, we will prevail. Together, we will overcome every challenge and obstacle that comes our way.
[53] May the spirit of our forefathers guide us, and may the determination of our Yankee troops inspire us. Let us write the next chapter of our history with courage, resilience, and unwavering conviction. The future of New England is in our hands, and we will forge it with honor and integrity. God bless New England, and God bless the cause for which we fight!"
​
President Daniel Webster addresses the citizens of Boston at the Federal States Hotel (United States Hotel) in an illustration capturing his lengthy two-and-a-half-hour \"The Boston Address\" speech. Standing atop a platform, Webster delivers his passionate speech, while the crowd erupts in cheers, energized by his fiery words. Meanwhile, within the hotel, the wives of soldiers protest the war's extension by throwing trash at Webster.
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2023.06.03 01:02 Cheekclappa504 Wtf?

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2023.06.03 01:00 HistoryThread The speech that shook Rome Hannibal at the Ticinus

The speech that shook Rome Hannibal at the Ticinus
This video is a modern take on the speech Hannibal Barca gave before the battle of the Ticinus river, as preserved by Livy.
We at history thread would love to hear your thoughts and we appreciate any viewing and feedback so thank you in advance 😁
In the early stages of the 2nd Punic war Carthaginian general Hannibal Barca led an army of 40,000 Carthaginians, Iberians, and Celts to the banks of the Ticinus River. On the opposing side an equal number of Romans and allied Italians prepared to contest this invasion of their domains, which encompassed nearly all of Italy. The Romans were well supplied and could draw on vast manpower reserves from the many subjugated peoples of the Italian peninsula. Hannibal on the other hand, was cut off from any supplies and reinforcements. Every battle he fought in Italy was all or nothing, for he could expect no relief. Before the battle of the Ticinus river, he gave a speech to his men impressing upon them the importance of winning the battle to come. It is the essence of this speech that we will be recreating today.

Ancient #Carthage #Hannibal #Rome #RomanHistory #HistoryThread

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2023.06.03 00:56 HistoryThread The speech that shook Rome Hannibal at the Ticinus

The speech that shook Rome Hannibal at the Ticinus
This video ought to fit like a glove in this subreddit ;)
An epic speech delivered by Hannibal, preserved by Livy, and brought to you by yours truly.
In the early stages of the 2nd Punic war Carthaginian general Hannibal Barca led an army of 40,000 Carthaginians, Iberians, and Celts to the banks of the Ticinus River. On the opposing side an equal number of Romans and allied Italians prepared to contest this invasion of their domains, which encompassed nearly all of Italy. The Romans were well supplied and could draw on vast manpower reserves from the many subjugated peoples of the Italian peninsula. Hannibal on the other hand, was cut off from any supplies and reinforcements. Every battle he fought in Italy was all or nothing, for he could expect no relief. Before the battle of the Ticinus river, he gave a speech to his men impressing upon them the importance of winning the battle to come. It is the essence of this speech that we will be recreating today.
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2023.06.03 00:17 Apprehensive-Egg-562 Camping in North Pines With Kids in 9 days

TL,DR:
  1. Camping in North Pines starting June 11 with 3/6/11 year old kids
  2. Has anyone camped in the past few weeks, are the mosquitos as bad as I am assuming?
  3. I assume I should buy firewood in the valley store to reduce the risks of non native pests. I see that it looks like I CAN bring it with me, but there is a risk.
  4. I can probably get to the south entrance station around Noon Sunday if I push it, but I think its probably smarter to kill more time in Oakhurst to avoid traffic and come into the park at 3 or 4.
  5. Specifically for those with young kids, with the river being too fast to play in, I would love to hear any ideas you have to help them have fun. Becasue we have never camped in the valley, I only know some of the things available outside of hiking. Unless I am missing it online, I can't see ranger program schedules until we get to the park. We will of course do some hiking, but I can't get far with this many kids. We are bringing bikes.
  6. Anything else I should know from anyone who camps in the valley with kids regularly?
Longer Version
This will be my third trip to Yosemite with my kids but the firs time I've gotten a reservation in the park. We are so pumped! I called the campground yesterday and as of now, the spot I have is still open, so unless there is a big melt next week, we should be good to go.
We are taking bikes with us and will do a combo of cooking food and buying from some of the restaurants. Driving in from Phoenix, I will bring much of my meat frozen and will stop in Oakhurst for some items on the way up like bread and dairy.
I plan to cook on a small portable gas grill and will bring a full propane tank with me. For our fire, I plan to buy firewood in Oakhurst or the Valley store. For mosquitos, I plan on buying a thermacell, and I thought about buying a screen house.
We are so excited! Thanks for any feedback relative to camping in the valley or specifically camping with kids.
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2023.06.02 23:56 Thelastfrontiers Solo Trip Report: May 17 - May 29 (LONG)

Solo Trip Report: May 17 - May 29 (LONG)
I will post the resources used at the end of the post but here is the full itinerary.
May 17th (Arrival)
I arrived at KEF around 8 AM, I scheduled the pick up time of my van at 10:00 AM, around 9:15 AM the person from Cheap Campervans picked me up at the airport and drove us to the Happy Campers place. Van pick up was smooth and easy and headed towards Reykjavik since I scheduled a reservation at 12:30 at Sky Lagoon.
Stayed at Sky Lagoon for around 2 hours, did the ritual ( It was a nice experience, I'm not used to go to this type of places so it was a new experience for me).
Drove to the AirBnB I booked and died for a few hours there, then I walked towards Hallgrimskirkja and just walked around in that area, visited Harpa, Sun Voyager and ate some delicious hot dogs at Bæjarins. I stopped at a Bonus store on the way back to the AirBnB to grab supplies for the trip and I arrived once again at the AirBnB.
May 18 (Golden Circle)
Woke up, had breakfast and drove towards Thingvellir. I parked at Parking 1 and walked around the park for a few hours, visited Öxarárfoss, Logberg, Almannagjá etc. It was windy and rainy but fortunately I was prepared and had a really great time, although it was a little bit crowded on some parts.
Thingvellir
Next stop was Brúarfoss. I didn't do the whole hike due to the weather so I stayed in the new parking lot that they have, if I'm not mistaken the price was around 750 ISK, the road is gravel but any 2WD can access it without a problem if you are careful. Place was beautiful and there were maybe 2 or 3 persons there.
Drove to Strokkur to see the Geyser, stayed there for a bit until the Geyser "exploded" and took some pictures and then left, beware of the smell here.
Drove to Gullfoss and I parked in the lower parking lot, I walked to the side of the waterfall and it was incredible, trully a highlight of the day but make sure to bring some really good hiking shoes/boots and some waterproof equipment.
Finally Arrived at Skjol Camping which was pretty good, had a pizza and a beer in the restaurant they have and went to sleep.
May 19 (South)
First stop of the day was Kerid Crater, you need to pay 450 ISK to enter but it's a beautiful view, walked around the crater and left.
Drove to Seljalandsfoss, you also need to pay parking here and it was very crowded when I arrived, walked to Seljalandsfoss and went behind the waterfall. Walked to Gljufrafoss and entered the cave, make sure to bring good waterproof shoes here cause you need to walk in water to enter the cave.
Next stop was Skógafoss, simply amazing, I stayed for a bit inside the restaurant that is in front and had something to eat in the meantime that the rain stopped a little, once it stopped I walked to the waterfall, I went up the stairs towards the Fimmvorduhals trail and walked for a mile or so and then I returned.
Skógafoss
Drove to Kvernufoss, wow, one of the hightlights of the trip. I walked down until the end where the waterfall is and just stayed there for a bit, simply amazing place and I was alone for almost the entire hike.
Drove to Dyrhólaey but unfortunately it was closed.
Drove to Reynisfjara and stayed there for a bit.
Finally arrived at an AirBnB I booked that was just a few minutes from Vik, I was unable to find a camp that was open around that area (or maybe I just didn't do a lot of search).
May 20
First stop was the Black Sand beach in Vik, really beautiful views and way less crowded than Reynisfjara.
Did the lava show at Vik and it was an amazing experience, definitely recommend doing this if you are in the area, after the show I ate an amazing lamb soup in the restaurant.
Drove to Eldhraun, short stop but beautiful views all around.
Drove to Fjaðrárgljúfur, road is paved all the way through and it's very easy to access, did the hike and took some amazing shots here, unfortunately mid hike there was a wind storm and I lost my lens hood of my camera and the raincoat I had for my backpack, Iceland winds are no joke!
Fjaðrárgljúfur
Did a little stop at Fossálar to take some pictures and finally arrived at Tjaldsvæðið í Svínafelli camp, really good facilities.
May 21 (South East)
Drove to Skaftafell since I booked a Glacier Hike with Arctic Adventures, the whole tour lasted around 4 hours and it was definitely one of the things I liked the most about the trip. Once we returned I had a little bite at the restaurant that the park has and then I continued the trip. (I wanted to do the Svartifoss hike but I was a little tired).
Glacier
Drove to the Múlagljúfur Canyon, unfortunately weather was pretty bad and since this was a longer hike I decided to not risk it, I was pretty disappointed cause this trail was one of my priorities but safety first!
Did a quick stop at Hofskirkja and drove to Fjallsárlón Glacier. I stayed inside the van for a bit cause it was raining and the wind was crazy for a bit but then it calmed down and I went down to the lagoon, amazing views.
Drove to Diamond Beach but unfortunately there was no ice in the beach, after this I drove to Höfn and stayed at the camp there. Unfortunately this was probably my least favorite camp, showers are not included in the price so that was a bummer.
May 22 (East)
First stop was Mount Vestrahorn, you need to pay to enter at the Viking cafe, I get that people sometimes get mad about paying here but I thought it was really worth it, they give you a map with the parking spots and the trails that they have, I visited the viking village which was cool even if it's fake, walked in the black sand beach and saw some wild horses roaming around, after that I grabbed a snack from the Cafe.
Vestrahorn
Drove to Skútafoss. Honestly, this was probably my favorite place in the whole trip, it was simply amazing and I was probably alone for almost 1 hour until another person arrived, words can't describe this place.
Had a stop at Djúpivogur and ate at Við Voginn, then I started the drive to the camp but I made a little stop at Nykurhylsfoss.
Arrived at Camp Egilsstadir, If you are visiting during low season I would recommend to arrive there and then do the reservation, I made a reservation before I arrived and once I was there there was someone else at my spot, I talked with the person in recepetion and for some reason my reservation was not appearing so I had to do it once again and grab another spot. Really good facilities tho!
May 23 (North)
Arrived at Hengifoss. I didn't check my AllTrails app beforehand and the hike was much longer than I expected lol, but it was beautiful.
Drove to Fardagafoss. I was planning on going all through the end but the wind was crazy, so I decided to return mid hike.
Next stop was Stuðlagil Canyon. I recommend doing the East parking to get to the famous spot, when you cross the bridge you need to follow a road that is not paved, it is a little rough but if you are careful you can do it in a 2WD. Once you park you need to walk for a little while, can't remember but I would say it's a 1-2 mile walk to the canyon, and as I mentioned before, wind was crazy this day but I was able to complete it safely, if it was raining tho I would have returned most likely.
Stuðlagil
Drove to camp in Ásbyrgi, really beautiful but this was the most expensive camp I stayed at.
May 24
Woke up a little late so I decided to skip the Ásbyrgi trails and I drove to Dettifoss, you need to be careful here cause Google Maps will have you take road 864 which was closed when I was there, make sure to always check the correct roads in road.is, in this case I took road 862 and arrived with no problems.
Did a quick stop at Hverir, you need to pay for parking and also the smell can get very strong lol.
Drove to Mývatn and visited the Grjótagjá cave, I then drove to Hverfjall volcano, you need to pay parking here. Did the hike to the top and stayed for a bit there, the climb is a little steep but once you are up it's easy to walk.
Hverfjall
Next stop was Goðafoss, parked on the East Side and took some cool pictures, it was a short stop.
Finally started my drive to camp, I had a little scare here cause I had to drive between some mountains and that day it was snowing, I checked the road and a very tiny part of Þjóðvegur had wet snow on it, I decided to try the drive and I arrived safely at camp but it was stressful. Camping Varmahlíð was the one I stayed that night and it was lovely, really friendly stuff and good facilities.
May 25
Drove to Grafarkirkja, you need to open a little gate to access the parking so just watch out for the signals once you are close. I arrived early in the morning so I had the place for myself for like 30 minutes.
Kálfshamarsviti was the next stop, most of the drive to here is done in a gravel road so be careful, the place is very beautiful and there were just a few people when I arrived.
Kálfshamarsviti
Drove to Hvitserkur, long drive but I'm used to them, also a gravel road if I recall correctly, really peaceful place, I went down to the beach, you need to be careful here not to slip.
I was initially planning on staying in Búðardalur tjaldsvæði camping, this one is just on the side of the main road and facilities are kinda lacky and place is kinda small (I can imagine that in summer this gets full really quickly), I was walking around town and found a place called Gil Gesthouse and decided to stay there, it was a lovely stay.
May 26 (Snæfellsnes / West)
First stop was Berserkjahraun, it was rainy and windy so I just made a quick stop and took some pictures.
Went to Kirkjufell, you also need to pay parking here which I didn't know, short stay also due to the weather.
Kirkjufell
Drove to Svöðufoss but I was unable to do the hike since wind was too strong and visibility was bad, I also had to skip a stop at Lóndrangar unfortunately.
Did a little stop at Djúpalónssandur, took some pics and left, was unable to go down to the beach.
Stopped at Arnarstapi, rain stopped fortunately but wind was strong still but it was safe to walk around.
Visited Búðakirkja. I then decided to go back to Kirkjufell since weather got good and wanted to see it with good visibility, made a short stop there and walked around the lake for a bit until the wind made me return to the van.
Camped at Akranes, wind was very strong and it blew the door for the showers.
May 27 (Reykjanes)
Drove to Lake Kleifarvatn and stayed there and walked down for a bit. Visited Krýsuvík and then drove to Valahnúkamöl, really nice stay here, took some good pictures and also visited the Reykjanes Lighthouse.
Valahnúkamöl
I was planning on visiting Blue Lagoon but it was fully booked unfortunately so I decided to drive to Reykjavik once again and booked Sky Lagoon again. Walked around the city again and bought souvenirs for family and friends, ate dinner at Kol which was good but pricey and finally I stayed at the Reykjavik Campsite (make sure to make a reservation before hand cause it gets full).
May 28
Woke up early in the morning and drove to Cheap Campervans to return the van. Return was fast and without any issues and the staff was kind enough to drop me at the AirBnB that I reserved at Reykjanesbær. I mostly stayed there the whole day to rest.
May 29
Flight was scheduled for 9 am so I decided to walk to the airport and just when I was starting my walk a kind person offered me a ride to the airport. Everything went smooth and I returned home.
Resources
If you have any questions please let me know!
submitted by Thelastfrontiers to VisitingIceland [link] [comments]

2023.06.02 23:41 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023

Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarketChat! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.

Dow leaps 700 points on hot jobs report, Nasdaq notches sixth straight winning week: Live updates - (Source)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged Friday as traders cheered a strong jobs report and the passage of a debt ceiling bill that averts a U.S. default.
The 30-stock Dow jumped 701.19 points, or 2.12%, to end at 33,762.76 — its best day since January. The S&P 500 climbed 1.45% to close at 4,282.37. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.07% to 13,240.77, reaching its highest level since April 2022 during the session.
With Friday’s gains, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished the holiday-shortened trading week about 1.8% and 2% higher, respectively. The Dow’s Friday advance pushed it into positive territory for the week, finishing up around 2%. The Nasdaq notched its sixth straight week higher, a streak length not seen for the technology-heavy index since 2020.
Nonfarm payrolls grew much more than expected in May, rising 339,000. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a relatively modest 190,000 increase. It marked the 29th straight month of positive job growth.
Recently strong employment data had been pressuring stocks on the notion it would keep the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. But Friday data also showed average hourly earnings rose less than economists expected year over year, while the unemployment rate was higher than anticipated.
Both data points have given investors hope that the Fed could pause its interest rate hike campaign at the policy meeting later this month, according to Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management.
“The so-called Goldilocks has entered the house,” Sandven said. “Clearly, on the bullish side, there are signs that inflation is starting to wane, speculation that the Fed is going to move into pause mode, increasing the likelihood of a soft landing.”
Easing concerns around the U.S. debt ceiling also helped sentiment. The Senate passed a bill to raise the debt ceiling late Thursday night, sending the bill to President Joe Biden’s desk. That comes after the House passed the Fiscal Responsibility Act on Wednesday, just days before the June 5 deadline set by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
Lululemon shares popped more than 11% on strong results and a guidance boost, while MongoDB surged 28% on a blowout forecast.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

A Resilient Labor Market = A Resilient Economy

Another month, another employment surprise. Should we be surprised anymore?
Economists expected payrolls to grow by about 187,000 in May. That’s still a solid job growth number, but a stepdown from what we’ve seen this year through April. However, actual payroll growth beat expectations for the 14th straight month.
The economy created 339,000 jobs in May, close to double expectations. Better still, payroll growth in March and April were revised higher by a total of 93,000!
  • March payrolls were revised up by 52,000, from 165,000 to 217,000
  • April payroll were revised up by 41,000, from 253,000 to 294,000
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
We’ve got two months of payroll data since the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March, and nothing suggests weakness arising from that banking crisis.
Over the first five months of the year, the economy’s added 1.5 million jobs. That in a nutshell tells you how the economy is doing. For perspective, the average annual payroll growth between 1940 and 2022 was 1.5 million. During the last expansion, 2010-2019, average annual payroll growth was 2.2 million per year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
But what about the unemployment rate?
The unemployment rate did rise from a 50-year low of 3.4% to 3.7%. This does raise some cause for concern but digging through the data suggests it may be noise more than anything else.
It probably helps to understand that the job growth and unemployment rate data come from different sources. The former comes from asking about 120,000+ businesses how many people they hired. The latter comes from asking about 60,000 households about their employment status. No surprise, the latter is noisier.
A big reason for the weak household survey (and rising unemployment rate) is that more than 400,000 people who were self-employed said they were no longer employed. As you can see in the following chart this is very noisy data, but the recent trend seems to be toward lower self-employment. It’s basically reversing the surge we saw in 2021, when self-employment surged. So, what we’re seeing now may simply be normalization of the labor market as more workers move from self-employment to W2 jobs with an employer.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Also, the unemployment rate can be impacted by people leaving the labor force (technically defined as those “not looking for work”) and an aging population. I’ve discussed in prior blogs how we can get around this by looking at the employment-population ratio for prime age workers, i.e. workers aged 25-54 years. This measures the number of people working as a percent of the civilian population. Think of it as the opposite of the unemployment rate, and because we use prime age, you also get around the demographic issue.
The good news is that the prime-age employment-population ratio dropped only a tick, from 80.8% to 80.7%. This still leaves it higher than at any point between 2002 and 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the labor market remains strong and resilient, despite all the recession calls. Perhaps its not as strong as the headline payroll growth number of 339,000 suggests, but any number above 150,000 would be good at this point. And we’re certainly well above that.
In fact, looking at the job growth and employment-population data, this labor market is probably the strongest we’ve seen since the late 1990’s. Our view since the end of last year has been that the economy can avoid a recession this year, and nothing we’ve seen to date suggests we need to reverse that view. Far from it.

June Better in Pre-Election Years

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Since 1971 June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks as a rule ranking eighth best with an 0.8% average gain, up 29 of 52 years. This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best 8 Months” which ends in June. Small caps also fare well in June. Russell 2000 has averaged 0.6% in June since 1979 advancing 63.6% of the time.
June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.2%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking ninth, but essentially flat (0.02% average gain).
Despite being much stronger S&P 500 pre-election year June ranks fifth best. For the rest it is just sixth best. Average monthly gains in pre-election year June range from DJIA 1.1% to a respectable 2.4% for NASDAQ. Russell 2000 has been the most consistently bullish in pre-election years, up 8 of the last 11 (72.7% of the time).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The June Swoon?

Stocks did it again, as the S&P 500 gained 0.2% in the month of May, making it now 10 of the past 11 years that stocks finished green in May. Of course, it gained only 0.01% last year and only 0.25% this year, so the recent returns weren’t off the charts by any measure.
Looking specifically at this year, tech added more than 9% in May, thanks to excitement over AI and Nvidia, with communication services and consumer discretionary also in the green, while the other eight sectors were lower.
Specifically, turning to the month of June, stocks historically have hit a bit of trouble here. Since 1950, up 0.03% on average, the fourth worst month of the year. Over the past 20 years, only January and September have been worse and in the past decade, it is again the fourth worst month. The one bit of good news is during a pre-election year is it up 1.5%, the fifth-best month of the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s another chart we’ve shared before, but years that gained big in January (like 2023) tend to see some periods of consolidation in late May/early June, but eventually experience a surge higher into July. Given the flattish overall May, this could be playing out again.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
What if stocks were having a good year heading into June? Since 1950, if the S&P 500 was up more than 8% for the year going into June (like this year), the month of June was up an impressive 1.2% on average versus the average June return of 0.03%, while in a pre-election year the returns jumped to 1.8%. The percent of the time where returns were higher gets better as well, from 54.8% in your average June to nearly 74% if up 8% or more for the year heading into June, to 80% of the time higher if up 8% for the year in a pre-election year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Overall, it has been a very nice run for stocks this year and we remain overweight stocks in the Carson Investment Research House Views. June could potentially cause some volatility, but when all is said and done, we wouldn’t bet against more strength and higher prices in June.

NASDAQ and Russell 2000 Lead June Pre-Election Strength

Over the last 21 years, June has been a rather lackluster month. DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 have all recorded average losses in the month. Russell 2000 has fared better with a modest average gain. Historically the month has opened respectably, advancing on the first and second trading days.
From there the market then drifted sideways and lower into negative territory just ahead of mid-month. Here the market rallied to create a nice mid-month bulge that quickly evaporated and returned to losses. The brisk, post, mid-month drop is typically followed by a month end rally led by technology and small caps.
Historical performance in pre-election years has been much stronger with all five indexes finishing with average gains. June’s overall pattern in pre-election is similar to the last 21-years pattern with a brief, shallow pullback after a solid start.
In pre-election years the mid-month rally has been much more robust beginning around the sixth trading day and lasting until the fifteenth. Followed by another modest retreat and rally into the end of Q2.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

May and YTD 2023 Asset Class Performance

May 2023 is now behind us, and below is a look at how various asset classes performed during the month using US-listed exchange-traded products as proxies. We also include YTD and YoY total returns.
May was a month of divergence where Tech/AI soared, and the rest of the market fell. Notably, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) gained 7.88% in May while the Dow Jones Dividend ETF (DVY) fell 7.7%. That's a 15 percentage-point spread!
At the sector level, it was a similar story. While the Tech sector (XLK) rose 8.9%, sectors like Energy (XLE), Consumer Staples (XLP), Materials (XLB), and Utilities (XLU) fell more than 5%. In total, 8 of 11 sectors were in the red for the month.
Outside the US, we saw pullbacks in most areas of the world other than Brazil, India, and Japan. China, Hong Kong, France, Canada, Italy, Spain, and the UK all fell more than 5%.
All of the commodity-related ETFs/ETNs were in the red for May, with oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) falling the most at more than 10% each.
Finally, fixed-income ETFs also fell in May as interest rates bounced back. The aggregate bond market ETF (AGG) was down 1.14% in May, leaving it up just 2.6% YTD and down 2.2% year-over-year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

How Worried Should We Be About Consumer Debt?

A very common question we get these days is whether we’re concerned about the massive increase in consumer debt.
Short answer: No. Well, not yet anyway. But let’s walk through it in 6 charts.
The New York Federal Reserve (NY Fed) releases a quarterly report on household debt and credit, and the latest one that was released last week came with the headline:
“Household Debt Hits $17.05 Trillion in First Quarter.” But let’s look at the details. Household debt increased by $148 billion in Q1. That translates to a 0.9% increase, which is the slowest quarterly increase in two years. Most of the increase in debt was from mortgage originations ($121 billion) – mortgage debt makes up $12 trillion of the total $17 trillion in debt. The rest was auto loan and student loan balances.
Here’s something interesting: credit card balances were flat in Q1, at $986 billion. The fact that overall balances are higher than where they were in 2019 ($927 billion) should not be surprising given we just experienced a lot of inflation. Prices rose at the fastest pace in 40 years, and so you should expect card balances to increase. However, incomes rose as well.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
When you think debt, the key question is whether households are able to service that debt. A good measure of that is to look at debt service costs as a percent of disposable income. As of Q4 2022, that’s at 9.7%, slightly lower than what it was before the pandemic and well below the historical average.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
There’s even better news: disposable income grew 2.9% in the first quarter of 2023. Significantly higher than the 0.9% increase in total household debt, let alone interest costs!
Part of that includes the large boost to social security income due to inflation adjustments in January. Also, tax brackets were adjusted higher, resulting in more money in household wallets.
But even if you exclude these one-off increases, disposable income growth has been strong between February and April, rising at a 5% annualized pace. In fact, employee compensation by itself has risen at a 3.9% annualized pace over the past three months. Meanwhile, inflation is running just about 3% – which means households are seeing real income gains (adjusted for inflation).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
This is why consumers don’t feel the need to borrow to the extent they did before the pandemic. Credit utilization rates measure credit card balances as a percent of available credit. As you can see in the following chart, utilization rates for both credit cards and home equity lines of credit are well below pre-pandemic averages.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lack of stress showing in delinquency data as well
Another way to look for signs of consumer stress is to look at the debt delinquency data. As of the first quarter, the NY Fed survey showed that the percent of loan balances that were more than 90 days delinquent was stable around 1.5%. That’s down from 1.9% a year ago, and quite a bit below the 3% average in 2019.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Even third-party collections are at record lows, with just over 5% of consumers having collections against them as of the first quarter. This is down from 6% a year ago and below the 2019 average of 9.2%. The average collection amount per person is $1,316, which is lower than the $1,452 average in late 2019. This is surprising because just with inflation you’d have thought the amount would be higher.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the data on consumer finances is not showing much cause for concern. So, count us in the “not worried” camp. At least, not yet.

Some Good Inflation News

While the market prices in a much higher likelihood of a rate hike at the June meeting, there was actually some decent news on the inflation front today. Starting with the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence report, in this month's update, the inflation expectations component fell to 6.1% from a peak of 7.9% fifteen months ago in March 2022 (first time reading touched 7.9%). Looking at the chart below, this reading was also at 6.1% fifteen months before that first peak. In other words, for all the talk about how inflation has been stickier, the pace of decline in this indicator on the way down has been the same as the pace of increase on the way up.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Another notable report was today's release of the Dallas Fed Manufacturing report. The Prices Paid component of that report showed a decline from 19.5 down to 13.8 which was the lowest reading since July 2020. For the month of May, two of the five components (Empire and Philadelphia) showed modest m/m increases from multi-month lows, and three showed significant declines to multi-month lows. The chart below shows a composite of the Prices Paid component using the z-scores for each of the five individual components going back to 2010. The peak for this component was 19 months ago in November 2021. Unlike the inflation expectations of the Conference Board survey, this reading hasn't declined quite as fast as it increased in the 19 months leading up to the peak, but at -0.2, it is still below its historical average dating back to 2010 and back down to levels it was at right before the COVID shock hit the economy in early 2020.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Home Prices Bounce in Hardest Hit Areas

March data on home prices across the country were released today with updated S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller numbers. Case Shiller home prices had been falling rapidly in many of the twenty cities tracked, but in March we actually saw a pretty big month-over-month bounce in some of the hardest-hit areas like San Diego, San Francisco, LA, Denver, and Phoenix. Some cities still saw declines, however. Las Vegas saw a m/m drop of 0.93%, while Miami fell 0.41%, and Seattle fell 0.28%.
On a year-over-year basis, Miami is still up the most with a gain of 10.86%. As shown in the table below, Miami home prices are up 59.87% from pre-COVID levels in February 2020, and they're only down 2.9% from post-COVID highs. Only Tampa is up more than Miami from pre-COVID levels (+61.04%), but Tampa prices are down more from their post-COVID highs (-4.70%) than Miami (-2.90%).
Four cities are down more than 10% from their post-COVID highs: San Diego (-10.12%), Las Vegas (-10.95%), San Francisco (-16.35%), and Seattle (-16.50%). New York is down the least from post-COVID highs of any city tracked at just -2.9%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Below we include charts of home price levels across all 20 cities tracked by Case Shiller along with the three composite indices. We've included a vertical red line on each chart to highlight pre-COVID levels. When looking through the charts, you can see this month's small bounce back in most cities after a 6-9 month pullback in prices from peaks seen early last year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 5th, 2023

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/2/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
($NIO $GTLB $GME $CIEN $DOCU $SAIC $ASO $SJM $CXM $THO $OLLI $MOMO $CBRL $FERG $TTC $HQY $CPB $PLAY $QMCO $FCEL $LOVE $ABM $CNM $HTOO $TCOM $JOAN $UNFI $SFIX $CHS $GIII $SIG $SMAR $PL $ZFOX $HYZN $VRA $CASY $MTN $SMTC $ALYA $DBI $SCWX $JILL $OESX $BSE $REVG $VBNK $VRNT $RENT $HCP)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(N/A.)
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 6.5.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Monday 6.5.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.6.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.6.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.7.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.7.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.8.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.8.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 6.9.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!)

Friday 6.9.23 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead StockMarketChat. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to u/bigbear0083 [link] [comments]

2023.06.02 23:40 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023

Good Friday evening to all of you here on WallStreetStockMarket! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.

Dow leaps 700 points on hot jobs report, Nasdaq notches sixth straight winning week: Live updates - (Source)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged Friday as traders cheered a strong jobs report and the passage of a debt ceiling bill that averts a U.S. default.
The 30-stock Dow jumped 701.19 points, or 2.12%, to end at 33,762.76 — its best day since January. The S&P 500 climbed 1.45% to close at 4,282.37. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.07% to 13,240.77, reaching its highest level since April 2022 during the session.
With Friday’s gains, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished the holiday-shortened trading week about 1.8% and 2% higher, respectively. The Dow’s Friday advance pushed it into positive territory for the week, finishing up around 2%. The Nasdaq notched its sixth straight week higher, a streak length not seen for the technology-heavy index since 2020.
Nonfarm payrolls grew much more than expected in May, rising 339,000. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a relatively modest 190,000 increase. It marked the 29th straight month of positive job growth.
Recently strong employment data had been pressuring stocks on the notion it would keep the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. But Friday data also showed average hourly earnings rose less than economists expected year over year, while the unemployment rate was higher than anticipated.
Both data points have given investors hope that the Fed could pause its interest rate hike campaign at the policy meeting later this month, according to Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management.
“The so-called Goldilocks has entered the house,” Sandven said. “Clearly, on the bullish side, there are signs that inflation is starting to wane, speculation that the Fed is going to move into pause mode, increasing the likelihood of a soft landing.”
Easing concerns around the U.S. debt ceiling also helped sentiment. The Senate passed a bill to raise the debt ceiling late Thursday night, sending the bill to President Joe Biden’s desk. That comes after the House passed the Fiscal Responsibility Act on Wednesday, just days before the June 5 deadline set by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
Lululemon shares popped more than 11% on strong results and a guidance boost, while MongoDB surged 28% on a blowout forecast.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

A Resilient Labor Market = A Resilient Economy

Another month, another employment surprise. Should we be surprised anymore?
Economists expected payrolls to grow by about 187,000 in May. That’s still a solid job growth number, but a stepdown from what we’ve seen this year through April. However, actual payroll growth beat expectations for the 14th straight month.
The economy created 339,000 jobs in May, close to double expectations. Better still, payroll growth in March and April were revised higher by a total of 93,000!
  • March payrolls were revised up by 52,000, from 165,000 to 217,000
  • April payroll were revised up by 41,000, from 253,000 to 294,000
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
We’ve got two months of payroll data since the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March, and nothing suggests weakness arising from that banking crisis.
Over the first five months of the year, the economy’s added 1.5 million jobs. That in a nutshell tells you how the economy is doing. For perspective, the average annual payroll growth between 1940 and 2022 was 1.5 million. During the last expansion, 2010-2019, average annual payroll growth was 2.2 million per year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
But what about the unemployment rate?
The unemployment rate did rise from a 50-year low of 3.4% to 3.7%. This does raise some cause for concern but digging through the data suggests it may be noise more than anything else.
It probably helps to understand that the job growth and unemployment rate data come from different sources. The former comes from asking about 120,000+ businesses how many people they hired. The latter comes from asking about 60,000 households about their employment status. No surprise, the latter is noisier.
A big reason for the weak household survey (and rising unemployment rate) is that more than 400,000 people who were self-employed said they were no longer employed. As you can see in the following chart this is very noisy data, but the recent trend seems to be toward lower self-employment. It’s basically reversing the surge we saw in 2021, when self-employment surged. So, what we’re seeing now may simply be normalization of the labor market as more workers move from self-employment to W2 jobs with an employer.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Also, the unemployment rate can be impacted by people leaving the labor force (technically defined as those “not looking for work”) and an aging population. I’ve discussed in prior blogs how we can get around this by looking at the employment-population ratio for prime age workers, i.e. workers aged 25-54 years. This measures the number of people working as a percent of the civilian population. Think of it as the opposite of the unemployment rate, and because we use prime age, you also get around the demographic issue.
The good news is that the prime-age employment-population ratio dropped only a tick, from 80.8% to 80.7%. This still leaves it higher than at any point between 2002 and 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the labor market remains strong and resilient, despite all the recession calls. Perhaps its not as strong as the headline payroll growth number of 339,000 suggests, but any number above 150,000 would be good at this point. And we’re certainly well above that.
In fact, looking at the job growth and employment-population data, this labor market is probably the strongest we’ve seen since the late 1990’s. Our view since the end of last year has been that the economy can avoid a recession this year, and nothing we’ve seen to date suggests we need to reverse that view. Far from it.

June Better in Pre-Election Years

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Since 1971 June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks as a rule ranking eighth best with an 0.8% average gain, up 29 of 52 years. This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best 8 Months” which ends in June. Small caps also fare well in June. Russell 2000 has averaged 0.6% in June since 1979 advancing 63.6% of the time.
June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.2%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking ninth, but essentially flat (0.02% average gain).
Despite being much stronger S&P 500 pre-election year June ranks fifth best. For the rest it is just sixth best. Average monthly gains in pre-election year June range from DJIA 1.1% to a respectable 2.4% for NASDAQ. Russell 2000 has been the most consistently bullish in pre-election years, up 8 of the last 11 (72.7% of the time).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The June Swoon?

Stocks did it again, as the S&P 500 gained 0.2% in the month of May, making it now 10 of the past 11 years that stocks finished green in May. Of course, it gained only 0.01% last year and only 0.25% this year, so the recent returns weren’t off the charts by any measure.
Looking specifically at this year, tech added more than 9% in May, thanks to excitement over AI and Nvidia, with communication services and consumer discretionary also in the green, while the other eight sectors were lower.
Specifically, turning to the month of June, stocks historically have hit a bit of trouble here. Since 1950, up 0.03% on average, the fourth worst month of the year. Over the past 20 years, only January and September have been worse and in the past decade, it is again the fourth worst month. The one bit of good news is during a pre-election year is it up 1.5%, the fifth-best month of the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s another chart we’ve shared before, but years that gained big in January (like 2023) tend to see some periods of consolidation in late May/early June, but eventually experience a surge higher into July. Given the flattish overall May, this could be playing out again.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
What if stocks were having a good year heading into June? Since 1950, if the S&P 500 was up more than 8% for the year going into June (like this year), the month of June was up an impressive 1.2% on average versus the average June return of 0.03%, while in a pre-election year the returns jumped to 1.8%. The percent of the time where returns were higher gets better as well, from 54.8% in your average June to nearly 74% if up 8% or more for the year heading into June, to 80% of the time higher if up 8% for the year in a pre-election year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Overall, it has been a very nice run for stocks this year and we remain overweight stocks in the Carson Investment Research House Views. June could potentially cause some volatility, but when all is said and done, we wouldn’t bet against more strength and higher prices in June.

NASDAQ and Russell 2000 Lead June Pre-Election Strength

Over the last 21 years, June has been a rather lackluster month. DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 have all recorded average losses in the month. Russell 2000 has fared better with a modest average gain. Historically the month has opened respectably, advancing on the first and second trading days.
From there the market then drifted sideways and lower into negative territory just ahead of mid-month. Here the market rallied to create a nice mid-month bulge that quickly evaporated and returned to losses. The brisk, post, mid-month drop is typically followed by a month end rally led by technology and small caps.
Historical performance in pre-election years has been much stronger with all five indexes finishing with average gains. June’s overall pattern in pre-election is similar to the last 21-years pattern with a brief, shallow pullback after a solid start.
In pre-election years the mid-month rally has been much more robust beginning around the sixth trading day and lasting until the fifteenth. Followed by another modest retreat and rally into the end of Q2.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

May and YTD 2023 Asset Class Performance

May 2023 is now behind us, and below is a look at how various asset classes performed during the month using US-listed exchange-traded products as proxies. We also include YTD and YoY total returns.
May was a month of divergence where Tech/AI soared, and the rest of the market fell. Notably, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) gained 7.88% in May while the Dow Jones Dividend ETF (DVY) fell 7.7%. That's a 15 percentage-point spread!
At the sector level, it was a similar story. While the Tech sector (XLK) rose 8.9%, sectors like Energy (XLE), Consumer Staples (XLP), Materials (XLB), and Utilities (XLU) fell more than 5%. In total, 8 of 11 sectors were in the red for the month.
Outside the US, we saw pullbacks in most areas of the world other than Brazil, India, and Japan. China, Hong Kong, France, Canada, Italy, Spain, and the UK all fell more than 5%.
All of the commodity-related ETFs/ETNs were in the red for May, with oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) falling the most at more than 10% each.
Finally, fixed-income ETFs also fell in May as interest rates bounced back. The aggregate bond market ETF (AGG) was down 1.14% in May, leaving it up just 2.6% YTD and down 2.2% year-over-year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

How Worried Should We Be About Consumer Debt?

A very common question we get these days is whether we’re concerned about the massive increase in consumer debt.
Short answer: No. Well, not yet anyway. But let’s walk through it in 6 charts.
The New York Federal Reserve (NY Fed) releases a quarterly report on household debt and credit, and the latest one that was released last week came with the headline:
“Household Debt Hits $17.05 Trillion in First Quarter.” But let’s look at the details. Household debt increased by $148 billion in Q1. That translates to a 0.9% increase, which is the slowest quarterly increase in two years. Most of the increase in debt was from mortgage originations ($121 billion) – mortgage debt makes up $12 trillion of the total $17 trillion in debt. The rest was auto loan and student loan balances.
Here’s something interesting: credit card balances were flat in Q1, at $986 billion. The fact that overall balances are higher than where they were in 2019 ($927 billion) should not be surprising given we just experienced a lot of inflation. Prices rose at the fastest pace in 40 years, and so you should expect card balances to increase. However, incomes rose as well.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
When you think debt, the key question is whether households are able to service that debt. A good measure of that is to look at debt service costs as a percent of disposable income. As of Q4 2022, that’s at 9.7%, slightly lower than what it was before the pandemic and well below the historical average.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
There’s even better news: disposable income grew 2.9% in the first quarter of 2023. Significantly higher than the 0.9% increase in total household debt, let alone interest costs!
Part of that includes the large boost to social security income due to inflation adjustments in January. Also, tax brackets were adjusted higher, resulting in more money in household wallets.
But even if you exclude these one-off increases, disposable income growth has been strong between February and April, rising at a 5% annualized pace. In fact, employee compensation by itself has risen at a 3.9% annualized pace over the past three months. Meanwhile, inflation is running just about 3% – which means households are seeing real income gains (adjusted for inflation).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
This is why consumers don’t feel the need to borrow to the extent they did before the pandemic. Credit utilization rates measure credit card balances as a percent of available credit. As you can see in the following chart, utilization rates for both credit cards and home equity lines of credit are well below pre-pandemic averages.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lack of stress showing in delinquency data as well
Another way to look for signs of consumer stress is to look at the debt delinquency data. As of the first quarter, the NY Fed survey showed that the percent of loan balances that were more than 90 days delinquent was stable around 1.5%. That’s down from 1.9% a year ago, and quite a bit below the 3% average in 2019.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Even third-party collections are at record lows, with just over 5% of consumers having collections against them as of the first quarter. This is down from 6% a year ago and below the 2019 average of 9.2%. The average collection amount per person is $1,316, which is lower than the $1,452 average in late 2019. This is surprising because just with inflation you’d have thought the amount would be higher.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the data on consumer finances is not showing much cause for concern. So, count us in the “not worried” camp. At least, not yet.

Some Good Inflation News

While the market prices in a much higher likelihood of a rate hike at the June meeting, there was actually some decent news on the inflation front today. Starting with the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence report, in this month's update, the inflation expectations component fell to 6.1% from a peak of 7.9% fifteen months ago in March 2022 (first time reading touched 7.9%). Looking at the chart below, this reading was also at 6.1% fifteen months before that first peak. In other words, for all the talk about how inflation has been stickier, the pace of decline in this indicator on the way down has been the same as the pace of increase on the way up.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Another notable report was today's release of the Dallas Fed Manufacturing report. The Prices Paid component of that report showed a decline from 19.5 down to 13.8 which was the lowest reading since July 2020. For the month of May, two of the five components (Empire and Philadelphia) showed modest m/m increases from multi-month lows, and three showed significant declines to multi-month lows. The chart below shows a composite of the Prices Paid component using the z-scores for each of the five individual components going back to 2010. The peak for this component was 19 months ago in November 2021. Unlike the inflation expectations of the Conference Board survey, this reading hasn't declined quite as fast as it increased in the 19 months leading up to the peak, but at -0.2, it is still below its historical average dating back to 2010 and back down to levels it was at right before the COVID shock hit the economy in early 2020.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Home Prices Bounce in Hardest Hit Areas

March data on home prices across the country were released today with updated S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller numbers. Case Shiller home prices had been falling rapidly in many of the twenty cities tracked, but in March we actually saw a pretty big month-over-month bounce in some of the hardest-hit areas like San Diego, San Francisco, LA, Denver, and Phoenix. Some cities still saw declines, however. Las Vegas saw a m/m drop of 0.93%, while Miami fell 0.41%, and Seattle fell 0.28%.
On a year-over-year basis, Miami is still up the most with a gain of 10.86%. As shown in the table below, Miami home prices are up 59.87% from pre-COVID levels in February 2020, and they're only down 2.9% from post-COVID highs. Only Tampa is up more than Miami from pre-COVID levels (+61.04%), but Tampa prices are down more from their post-COVID highs (-4.70%) than Miami (-2.90%).
Four cities are down more than 10% from their post-COVID highs: San Diego (-10.12%), Las Vegas (-10.95%), San Francisco (-16.35%), and Seattle (-16.50%). New York is down the least from post-COVID highs of any city tracked at just -2.9%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Below we include charts of home price levels across all 20 cities tracked by Case Shiller along with the three composite indices. We've included a vertical red line on each chart to highlight pre-COVID levels. When looking through the charts, you can see this month's small bounce back in most cities after a 6-9 month pullback in prices from peaks seen early last year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 5th, 2023

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/2/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
($NIO $GTLB $GME $CIEN $DOCU $SAIC $ASO $SJM $CXM $THO $OLLI $MOMO $CBRL $FERG $TTC $HQY $CPB $PLAY $QMCO $FCEL $LOVE $ABM $CNM $HTOO $TCOM $JOAN $UNFI $SFIX $CHS $GIII $SIG $SMAR $PL $ZFOX $HYZN $VRA $CASY $MTN $SMTC $ALYA $DBI $SCWX $JILL $OESX $BSE $REVG $VBNK $VRNT $RENT $HCP)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(N/A.)
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 6.5.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Monday 6.5.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.6.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.6.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.7.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.7.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.8.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.8.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 6.9.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!)

Friday 6.9.23 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead WallStreetStockMarket. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to WallStreetStockMarket [link] [comments]

2023.06.02 23:39 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023

Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarketForums! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.

Dow leaps 700 points on hot jobs report, Nasdaq notches sixth straight winning week: Live updates - (Source)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged Friday as traders cheered a strong jobs report and the passage of a debt ceiling bill that averts a U.S. default.
The 30-stock Dow jumped 701.19 points, or 2.12%, to end at 33,762.76 — its best day since January. The S&P 500 climbed 1.45% to close at 4,282.37. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.07% to 13,240.77, reaching its highest level since April 2022 during the session.
With Friday’s gains, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished the holiday-shortened trading week about 1.8% and 2% higher, respectively. The Dow’s Friday advance pushed it into positive territory for the week, finishing up around 2%. The Nasdaq notched its sixth straight week higher, a streak length not seen for the technology-heavy index since 2020.
Nonfarm payrolls grew much more than expected in May, rising 339,000. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a relatively modest 190,000 increase. It marked the 29th straight month of positive job growth.
Recently strong employment data had been pressuring stocks on the notion it would keep the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. But Friday data also showed average hourly earnings rose less than economists expected year over year, while the unemployment rate was higher than anticipated.
Both data points have given investors hope that the Fed could pause its interest rate hike campaign at the policy meeting later this month, according to Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management.
“The so-called Goldilocks has entered the house,” Sandven said. “Clearly, on the bullish side, there are signs that inflation is starting to wane, speculation that the Fed is going to move into pause mode, increasing the likelihood of a soft landing.”
Easing concerns around the U.S. debt ceiling also helped sentiment. The Senate passed a bill to raise the debt ceiling late Thursday night, sending the bill to President Joe Biden’s desk. That comes after the House passed the Fiscal Responsibility Act on Wednesday, just days before the June 5 deadline set by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
Lululemon shares popped more than 11% on strong results and a guidance boost, while MongoDB surged 28% on a blowout forecast.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

A Resilient Labor Market = A Resilient Economy

Another month, another employment surprise. Should we be surprised anymore?
Economists expected payrolls to grow by about 187,000 in May. That’s still a solid job growth number, but a stepdown from what we’ve seen this year through April. However, actual payroll growth beat expectations for the 14th straight month.
The economy created 339,000 jobs in May, close to double expectations. Better still, payroll growth in March and April were revised higher by a total of 93,000!
  • March payrolls were revised up by 52,000, from 165,000 to 217,000
  • April payroll were revised up by 41,000, from 253,000 to 294,000
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
We’ve got two months of payroll data since the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March, and nothing suggests weakness arising from that banking crisis.
Over the first five months of the year, the economy’s added 1.5 million jobs. That in a nutshell tells you how the economy is doing. For perspective, the average annual payroll growth between 1940 and 2022 was 1.5 million. During the last expansion, 2010-2019, average annual payroll growth was 2.2 million per year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
But what about the unemployment rate?
The unemployment rate did rise from a 50-year low of 3.4% to 3.7%. This does raise some cause for concern but digging through the data suggests it may be noise more than anything else.
It probably helps to understand that the job growth and unemployment rate data come from different sources. The former comes from asking about 120,000+ businesses how many people they hired. The latter comes from asking about 60,000 households about their employment status. No surprise, the latter is noisier.
A big reason for the weak household survey (and rising unemployment rate) is that more than 400,000 people who were self-employed said they were no longer employed. As you can see in the following chart this is very noisy data, but the recent trend seems to be toward lower self-employment. It’s basically reversing the surge we saw in 2021, when self-employment surged. So, what we’re seeing now may simply be normalization of the labor market as more workers move from self-employment to W2 jobs with an employer.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Also, the unemployment rate can be impacted by people leaving the labor force (technically defined as those “not looking for work”) and an aging population. I’ve discussed in prior blogs how we can get around this by looking at the employment-population ratio for prime age workers, i.e. workers aged 25-54 years. This measures the number of people working as a percent of the civilian population. Think of it as the opposite of the unemployment rate, and because we use prime age, you also get around the demographic issue.
The good news is that the prime-age employment-population ratio dropped only a tick, from 80.8% to 80.7%. This still leaves it higher than at any point between 2002 and 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the labor market remains strong and resilient, despite all the recession calls. Perhaps its not as strong as the headline payroll growth number of 339,000 suggests, but any number above 150,000 would be good at this point. And we’re certainly well above that.
In fact, looking at the job growth and employment-population data, this labor market is probably the strongest we’ve seen since the late 1990’s. Our view since the end of last year has been that the economy can avoid a recession this year, and nothing we’ve seen to date suggests we need to reverse that view. Far from it.

June Better in Pre-Election Years

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Since 1971 June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks as a rule ranking eighth best with an 0.8% average gain, up 29 of 52 years. This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best 8 Months” which ends in June. Small caps also fare well in June. Russell 2000 has averaged 0.6% in June since 1979 advancing 63.6% of the time.
June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.2%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking ninth, but essentially flat (0.02% average gain).
Despite being much stronger S&P 500 pre-election year June ranks fifth best. For the rest it is just sixth best. Average monthly gains in pre-election year June range from DJIA 1.1% to a respectable 2.4% for NASDAQ. Russell 2000 has been the most consistently bullish in pre-election years, up 8 of the last 11 (72.7% of the time).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The June Swoon?

Stocks did it again, as the S&P 500 gained 0.2% in the month of May, making it now 10 of the past 11 years that stocks finished green in May. Of course, it gained only 0.01% last year and only 0.25% this year, so the recent returns weren’t off the charts by any measure.
Looking specifically at this year, tech added more than 9% in May, thanks to excitement over AI and Nvidia, with communication services and consumer discretionary also in the green, while the other eight sectors were lower.
Specifically, turning to the month of June, stocks historically have hit a bit of trouble here. Since 1950, up 0.03% on average, the fourth worst month of the year. Over the past 20 years, only January and September have been worse and in the past decade, it is again the fourth worst month. The one bit of good news is during a pre-election year is it up 1.5%, the fifth-best month of the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s another chart we’ve shared before, but years that gained big in January (like 2023) tend to see some periods of consolidation in late May/early June, but eventually experience a surge higher into July. Given the flattish overall May, this could be playing out again.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
What if stocks were having a good year heading into June? Since 1950, if the S&P 500 was up more than 8% for the year going into June (like this year), the month of June was up an impressive 1.2% on average versus the average June return of 0.03%, while in a pre-election year the returns jumped to 1.8%. The percent of the time where returns were higher gets better as well, from 54.8% in your average June to nearly 74% if up 8% or more for the year heading into June, to 80% of the time higher if up 8% for the year in a pre-election year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Overall, it has been a very nice run for stocks this year and we remain overweight stocks in the Carson Investment Research House Views. June could potentially cause some volatility, but when all is said and done, we wouldn’t bet against more strength and higher prices in June.

NASDAQ and Russell 2000 Lead June Pre-Election Strength

Over the last 21 years, June has been a rather lackluster month. DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 have all recorded average losses in the month. Russell 2000 has fared better with a modest average gain. Historically the month has opened respectably, advancing on the first and second trading days.
From there the market then drifted sideways and lower into negative territory just ahead of mid-month. Here the market rallied to create a nice mid-month bulge that quickly evaporated and returned to losses. The brisk, post, mid-month drop is typically followed by a month end rally led by technology and small caps.
Historical performance in pre-election years has been much stronger with all five indexes finishing with average gains. June’s overall pattern in pre-election is similar to the last 21-years pattern with a brief, shallow pullback after a solid start.
In pre-election years the mid-month rally has been much more robust beginning around the sixth trading day and lasting until the fifteenth. Followed by another modest retreat and rally into the end of Q2.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

May and YTD 2023 Asset Class Performance

May 2023 is now behind us, and below is a look at how various asset classes performed during the month using US-listed exchange-traded products as proxies. We also include YTD and YoY total returns.
May was a month of divergence where Tech/AI soared, and the rest of the market fell. Notably, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) gained 7.88% in May while the Dow Jones Dividend ETF (DVY) fell 7.7%. That's a 15 percentage-point spread!
At the sector level, it was a similar story. While the Tech sector (XLK) rose 8.9%, sectors like Energy (XLE), Consumer Staples (XLP), Materials (XLB), and Utilities (XLU) fell more than 5%. In total, 8 of 11 sectors were in the red for the month.
Outside the US, we saw pullbacks in most areas of the world other than Brazil, India, and Japan. China, Hong Kong, France, Canada, Italy, Spain, and the UK all fell more than 5%.
All of the commodity-related ETFs/ETNs were in the red for May, with oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) falling the most at more than 10% each.
Finally, fixed-income ETFs also fell in May as interest rates bounced back. The aggregate bond market ETF (AGG) was down 1.14% in May, leaving it up just 2.6% YTD and down 2.2% year-over-year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

How Worried Should We Be About Consumer Debt?

A very common question we get these days is whether we’re concerned about the massive increase in consumer debt.
Short answer: No. Well, not yet anyway. But let’s walk through it in 6 charts.
The New York Federal Reserve (NY Fed) releases a quarterly report on household debt and credit, and the latest one that was released last week came with the headline:
“Household Debt Hits $17.05 Trillion in First Quarter.” But let’s look at the details. Household debt increased by $148 billion in Q1. That translates to a 0.9% increase, which is the slowest quarterly increase in two years. Most of the increase in debt was from mortgage originations ($121 billion) – mortgage debt makes up $12 trillion of the total $17 trillion in debt. The rest was auto loan and student loan balances.
Here’s something interesting: credit card balances were flat in Q1, at $986 billion. The fact that overall balances are higher than where they were in 2019 ($927 billion) should not be surprising given we just experienced a lot of inflation. Prices rose at the fastest pace in 40 years, and so you should expect card balances to increase. However, incomes rose as well.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
When you think debt, the key question is whether households are able to service that debt. A good measure of that is to look at debt service costs as a percent of disposable income. As of Q4 2022, that’s at 9.7%, slightly lower than what it was before the pandemic and well below the historical average.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
There’s even better news: disposable income grew 2.9% in the first quarter of 2023. Significantly higher than the 0.9% increase in total household debt, let alone interest costs!
Part of that includes the large boost to social security income due to inflation adjustments in January. Also, tax brackets were adjusted higher, resulting in more money in household wallets.
But even if you exclude these one-off increases, disposable income growth has been strong between February and April, rising at a 5% annualized pace. In fact, employee compensation by itself has risen at a 3.9% annualized pace over the past three months. Meanwhile, inflation is running just about 3% – which means households are seeing real income gains (adjusted for inflation).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
This is why consumers don’t feel the need to borrow to the extent they did before the pandemic. Credit utilization rates measure credit card balances as a percent of available credit. As you can see in the following chart, utilization rates for both credit cards and home equity lines of credit are well below pre-pandemic averages.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lack of stress showing in delinquency data as well
Another way to look for signs of consumer stress is to look at the debt delinquency data. As of the first quarter, the NY Fed survey showed that the percent of loan balances that were more than 90 days delinquent was stable around 1.5%. That’s down from 1.9% a year ago, and quite a bit below the 3% average in 2019.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Even third-party collections are at record lows, with just over 5% of consumers having collections against them as of the first quarter. This is down from 6% a year ago and below the 2019 average of 9.2%. The average collection amount per person is $1,316, which is lower than the $1,452 average in late 2019. This is surprising because just with inflation you’d have thought the amount would be higher.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the data on consumer finances is not showing much cause for concern. So, count us in the “not worried” camp. At least, not yet.

Some Good Inflation News

While the market prices in a much higher likelihood of a rate hike at the June meeting, there was actually some decent news on the inflation front today. Starting with the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence report, in this month's update, the inflation expectations component fell to 6.1% from a peak of 7.9% fifteen months ago in March 2022 (first time reading touched 7.9%). Looking at the chart below, this reading was also at 6.1% fifteen months before that first peak. In other words, for all the talk about how inflation has been stickier, the pace of decline in this indicator on the way down has been the same as the pace of increase on the way up.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Another notable report was today's release of the Dallas Fed Manufacturing report. The Prices Paid component of that report showed a decline from 19.5 down to 13.8 which was the lowest reading since July 2020. For the month of May, two of the five components (Empire and Philadelphia) showed modest m/m increases from multi-month lows, and three showed significant declines to multi-month lows. The chart below shows a composite of the Prices Paid component using the z-scores for each of the five individual components going back to 2010. The peak for this component was 19 months ago in November 2021. Unlike the inflation expectations of the Conference Board survey, this reading hasn't declined quite as fast as it increased in the 19 months leading up to the peak, but at -0.2, it is still below its historical average dating back to 2010 and back down to levels it was at right before the COVID shock hit the economy in early 2020.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Home Prices Bounce in Hardest Hit Areas

March data on home prices across the country were released today with updated S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller numbers. Case Shiller home prices had been falling rapidly in many of the twenty cities tracked, but in March we actually saw a pretty big month-over-month bounce in some of the hardest-hit areas like San Diego, San Francisco, LA, Denver, and Phoenix. Some cities still saw declines, however. Las Vegas saw a m/m drop of 0.93%, while Miami fell 0.41%, and Seattle fell 0.28%.
On a year-over-year basis, Miami is still up the most with a gain of 10.86%. As shown in the table below, Miami home prices are up 59.87% from pre-COVID levels in February 2020, and they're only down 2.9% from post-COVID highs. Only Tampa is up more than Miami from pre-COVID levels (+61.04%), but Tampa prices are down more from their post-COVID highs (-4.70%) than Miami (-2.90%).
Four cities are down more than 10% from their post-COVID highs: San Diego (-10.12%), Las Vegas (-10.95%), San Francisco (-16.35%), and Seattle (-16.50%). New York is down the least from post-COVID highs of any city tracked at just -2.9%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Below we include charts of home price levels across all 20 cities tracked by Case Shiller along with the three composite indices. We've included a vertical red line on each chart to highlight pre-COVID levels. When looking through the charts, you can see this month's small bounce back in most cities after a 6-9 month pullback in prices from peaks seen early last year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 5th, 2023

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/2/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
($NIO $GTLB $GME $CIEN $DOCU $SAIC $ASO $SJM $CXM $THO $OLLI $MOMO $CBRL $FERG $TTC $HQY $CPB $PLAY $QMCO $FCEL $LOVE $ABM $CNM $HTOO $TCOM $JOAN $UNFI $SFIX $CHS $GIII $SIG $SMAR $PL $ZFOX $HYZN $VRA $CASY $MTN $SMTC $ALYA $DBI $SCWX $JILL $OESX $BSE $REVG $VBNK $VRNT $RENT $HCP)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(N/A.)
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 6.5.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Monday 6.5.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.6.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.6.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.7.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.7.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.8.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.8.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 6.9.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!)

Friday 6.9.23 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead StockMarketForums. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to StockMarketForums [link] [comments]

2023.06.02 23:39 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023

Good Friday evening to all of you here on EarningsWhispers! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.

Dow leaps 700 points on hot jobs report, Nasdaq notches sixth straight winning week: Live updates - (Source)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged Friday as traders cheered a strong jobs report and the passage of a debt ceiling bill that averts a U.S. default.
The 30-stock Dow jumped 701.19 points, or 2.12%, to end at 33,762.76 — its best day since January. The S&P 500 climbed 1.45% to close at 4,282.37. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.07% to 13,240.77, reaching its highest level since April 2022 during the session.
With Friday’s gains, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished the holiday-shortened trading week about 1.8% and 2% higher, respectively. The Dow’s Friday advance pushed it into positive territory for the week, finishing up around 2%. The Nasdaq notched its sixth straight week higher, a streak length not seen for the technology-heavy index since 2020.
Nonfarm payrolls grew much more than expected in May, rising 339,000. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a relatively modest 190,000 increase. It marked the 29th straight month of positive job growth.
Recently strong employment data had been pressuring stocks on the notion it would keep the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. But Friday data also showed average hourly earnings rose less than economists expected year over year, while the unemployment rate was higher than anticipated.
Both data points have given investors hope that the Fed could pause its interest rate hike campaign at the policy meeting later this month, according to Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management.
“The so-called Goldilocks has entered the house,” Sandven said. “Clearly, on the bullish side, there are signs that inflation is starting to wane, speculation that the Fed is going to move into pause mode, increasing the likelihood of a soft landing.”
Easing concerns around the U.S. debt ceiling also helped sentiment. The Senate passed a bill to raise the debt ceiling late Thursday night, sending the bill to President Joe Biden’s desk. That comes after the House passed the Fiscal Responsibility Act on Wednesday, just days before the June 5 deadline set by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
Lululemon shares popped more than 11% on strong results and a guidance boost, while MongoDB surged 28% on a blowout forecast.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

A Resilient Labor Market = A Resilient Economy

Another month, another employment surprise. Should we be surprised anymore?
Economists expected payrolls to grow by about 187,000 in May. That’s still a solid job growth number, but a stepdown from what we’ve seen this year through April. However, actual payroll growth beat expectations for the 14th straight month.
The economy created 339,000 jobs in May, close to double expectations. Better still, payroll growth in March and April were revised higher by a total of 93,000!
  • March payrolls were revised up by 52,000, from 165,000 to 217,000
  • April payroll were revised up by 41,000, from 253,000 to 294,000
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
We’ve got two months of payroll data since the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March, and nothing suggests weakness arising from that banking crisis.
Over the first five months of the year, the economy’s added 1.5 million jobs. That in a nutshell tells you how the economy is doing. For perspective, the average annual payroll growth between 1940 and 2022 was 1.5 million. During the last expansion, 2010-2019, average annual payroll growth was 2.2 million per year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
But what about the unemployment rate?
The unemployment rate did rise from a 50-year low of 3.4% to 3.7%. This does raise some cause for concern but digging through the data suggests it may be noise more than anything else.
It probably helps to understand that the job growth and unemployment rate data come from different sources. The former comes from asking about 120,000+ businesses how many people they hired. The latter comes from asking about 60,000 households about their employment status. No surprise, the latter is noisier.
A big reason for the weak household survey (and rising unemployment rate) is that more than 400,000 people who were self-employed said they were no longer employed. As you can see in the following chart this is very noisy data, but the recent trend seems to be toward lower self-employment. It’s basically reversing the surge we saw in 2021, when self-employment surged. So, what we’re seeing now may simply be normalization of the labor market as more workers move from self-employment to W2 jobs with an employer.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Also, the unemployment rate can be impacted by people leaving the labor force (technically defined as those “not looking for work”) and an aging population. I’ve discussed in prior blogs how we can get around this by looking at the employment-population ratio for prime age workers, i.e. workers aged 25-54 years. This measures the number of people working as a percent of the civilian population. Think of it as the opposite of the unemployment rate, and because we use prime age, you also get around the demographic issue.
The good news is that the prime-age employment-population ratio dropped only a tick, from 80.8% to 80.7%. This still leaves it higher than at any point between 2002 and 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the labor market remains strong and resilient, despite all the recession calls. Perhaps its not as strong as the headline payroll growth number of 339,000 suggests, but any number above 150,000 would be good at this point. And we’re certainly well above that.
In fact, looking at the job growth and employment-population data, this labor market is probably the strongest we’ve seen since the late 1990’s. Our view since the end of last year has been that the economy can avoid a recession this year, and nothing we’ve seen to date suggests we need to reverse that view. Far from it.

June Better in Pre-Election Years

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Since 1971 June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks as a rule ranking eighth best with an 0.8% average gain, up 29 of 52 years. This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best 8 Months” which ends in June. Small caps also fare well in June. Russell 2000 has averaged 0.6% in June since 1979 advancing 63.6% of the time.
June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.2%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking ninth, but essentially flat (0.02% average gain).
Despite being much stronger S&P 500 pre-election year June ranks fifth best. For the rest it is just sixth best. Average monthly gains in pre-election year June range from DJIA 1.1% to a respectable 2.4% for NASDAQ. Russell 2000 has been the most consistently bullish in pre-election years, up 8 of the last 11 (72.7% of the time).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The June Swoon?

Stocks did it again, as the S&P 500 gained 0.2% in the month of May, making it now 10 of the past 11 years that stocks finished green in May. Of course, it gained only 0.01% last year and only 0.25% this year, so the recent returns weren’t off the charts by any measure.
Looking specifically at this year, tech added more than 9% in May, thanks to excitement over AI and Nvidia, with communication services and consumer discretionary also in the green, while the other eight sectors were lower.
Specifically, turning to the month of June, stocks historically have hit a bit of trouble here. Since 1950, up 0.03% on average, the fourth worst month of the year. Over the past 20 years, only January and September have been worse and in the past decade, it is again the fourth worst month. The one bit of good news is during a pre-election year is it up 1.5%, the fifth-best month of the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s another chart we’ve shared before, but years that gained big in January (like 2023) tend to see some periods of consolidation in late May/early June, but eventually experience a surge higher into July. Given the flattish overall May, this could be playing out again.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
What if stocks were having a good year heading into June? Since 1950, if the S&P 500 was up more than 8% for the year going into June (like this year), the month of June was up an impressive 1.2% on average versus the average June return of 0.03%, while in a pre-election year the returns jumped to 1.8%. The percent of the time where returns were higher gets better as well, from 54.8% in your average June to nearly 74% if up 8% or more for the year heading into June, to 80% of the time higher if up 8% for the year in a pre-election year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Overall, it has been a very nice run for stocks this year and we remain overweight stocks in the Carson Investment Research House Views. June could potentially cause some volatility, but when all is said and done, we wouldn’t bet against more strength and higher prices in June.

NASDAQ and Russell 2000 Lead June Pre-Election Strength

Over the last 21 years, June has been a rather lackluster month. DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 have all recorded average losses in the month. Russell 2000 has fared better with a modest average gain. Historically the month has opened respectably, advancing on the first and second trading days.
From there the market then drifted sideways and lower into negative territory just ahead of mid-month. Here the market rallied to create a nice mid-month bulge that quickly evaporated and returned to losses. The brisk, post, mid-month drop is typically followed by a month end rally led by technology and small caps.
Historical performance in pre-election years has been much stronger with all five indexes finishing with average gains. June’s overall pattern in pre-election is similar to the last 21-years pattern with a brief, shallow pullback after a solid start.
In pre-election years the mid-month rally has been much more robust beginning around the sixth trading day and lasting until the fifteenth. Followed by another modest retreat and rally into the end of Q2.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

May and YTD 2023 Asset Class Performance

May 2023 is now behind us, and below is a look at how various asset classes performed during the month using US-listed exchange-traded products as proxies. We also include YTD and YoY total returns.
May was a month of divergence where Tech/AI soared, and the rest of the market fell. Notably, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) gained 7.88% in May while the Dow Jones Dividend ETF (DVY) fell 7.7%. That's a 15 percentage-point spread!
At the sector level, it was a similar story. While the Tech sector (XLK) rose 8.9%, sectors like Energy (XLE), Consumer Staples (XLP), Materials (XLB), and Utilities (XLU) fell more than 5%. In total, 8 of 11 sectors were in the red for the month.
Outside the US, we saw pullbacks in most areas of the world other than Brazil, India, and Japan. China, Hong Kong, France, Canada, Italy, Spain, and the UK all fell more than 5%.
All of the commodity-related ETFs/ETNs were in the red for May, with oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) falling the most at more than 10% each.
Finally, fixed-income ETFs also fell in May as interest rates bounced back. The aggregate bond market ETF (AGG) was down 1.14% in May, leaving it up just 2.6% YTD and down 2.2% year-over-year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

How Worried Should We Be About Consumer Debt?

A very common question we get these days is whether we’re concerned about the massive increase in consumer debt.
Short answer: No. Well, not yet anyway. But let’s walk through it in 6 charts.
The New York Federal Reserve (NY Fed) releases a quarterly report on household debt and credit, and the latest one that was released last week came with the headline:
“Household Debt Hits $17.05 Trillion in First Quarter.” But let’s look at the details. Household debt increased by $148 billion in Q1. That translates to a 0.9% increase, which is the slowest quarterly increase in two years. Most of the increase in debt was from mortgage originations ($121 billion) – mortgage debt makes up $12 trillion of the total $17 trillion in debt. The rest was auto loan and student loan balances.
Here’s something interesting: credit card balances were flat in Q1, at $986 billion. The fact that overall balances are higher than where they were in 2019 ($927 billion) should not be surprising given we just experienced a lot of inflation. Prices rose at the fastest pace in 40 years, and so you should expect card balances to increase. However, incomes rose as well.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
When you think debt, the key question is whether households are able to service that debt. A good measure of that is to look at debt service costs as a percent of disposable income. As of Q4 2022, that’s at 9.7%, slightly lower than what it was before the pandemic and well below the historical average.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
There’s even better news: disposable income grew 2.9% in the first quarter of 2023. Significantly higher than the 0.9% increase in total household debt, let alone interest costs!
Part of that includes the large boost to social security income due to inflation adjustments in January. Also, tax brackets were adjusted higher, resulting in more money in household wallets.
But even if you exclude these one-off increases, disposable income growth has been strong between February and April, rising at a 5% annualized pace. In fact, employee compensation by itself has risen at a 3.9% annualized pace over the past three months. Meanwhile, inflation is running just about 3% – which means households are seeing real income gains (adjusted for inflation).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
This is why consumers don’t feel the need to borrow to the extent they did before the pandemic. Credit utilization rates measure credit card balances as a percent of available credit. As you can see in the following chart, utilization rates for both credit cards and home equity lines of credit are well below pre-pandemic averages.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lack of stress showing in delinquency data as well
Another way to look for signs of consumer stress is to look at the debt delinquency data. As of the first quarter, the NY Fed survey showed that the percent of loan balances that were more than 90 days delinquent was stable around 1.5%. That’s down from 1.9% a year ago, and quite a bit below the 3% average in 2019.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Even third-party collections are at record lows, with just over 5% of consumers having collections against them as of the first quarter. This is down from 6% a year ago and below the 2019 average of 9.2%. The average collection amount per person is $1,316, which is lower than the $1,452 average in late 2019. This is surprising because just with inflation you’d have thought the amount would be higher.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the data on consumer finances is not showing much cause for concern. So, count us in the “not worried” camp. At least, not yet.

Some Good Inflation News

While the market prices in a much higher likelihood of a rate hike at the June meeting, there was actually some decent news on the inflation front today. Starting with the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence report, in this month's update, the inflation expectations component fell to 6.1% from a peak of 7.9% fifteen months ago in March 2022 (first time reading touched 7.9%). Looking at the chart below, this reading was also at 6.1% fifteen months before that first peak. In other words, for all the talk about how inflation has been stickier, the pace of decline in this indicator on the way down has been the same as the pace of increase on the way up.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Another notable report was today's release of the Dallas Fed Manufacturing report. The Prices Paid component of that report showed a decline from 19.5 down to 13.8 which was the lowest reading since July 2020. For the month of May, two of the five components (Empire and Philadelphia) showed modest m/m increases from multi-month lows, and three showed significant declines to multi-month lows. The chart below shows a composite of the Prices Paid component using the z-scores for each of the five individual components going back to 2010. The peak for this component was 19 months ago in November 2021. Unlike the inflation expectations of the Conference Board survey, this reading hasn't declined quite as fast as it increased in the 19 months leading up to the peak, but at -0.2, it is still below its historical average dating back to 2010 and back down to levels it was at right before the COVID shock hit the economy in early 2020.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Home Prices Bounce in Hardest Hit Areas

March data on home prices across the country were released today with updated S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller numbers. Case Shiller home prices had been falling rapidly in many of the twenty cities tracked, but in March we actually saw a pretty big month-over-month bounce in some of the hardest-hit areas like San Diego, San Francisco, LA, Denver, and Phoenix. Some cities still saw declines, however. Las Vegas saw a m/m drop of 0.93%, while Miami fell 0.41%, and Seattle fell 0.28%.
On a year-over-year basis, Miami is still up the most with a gain of 10.86%. As shown in the table below, Miami home prices are up 59.87% from pre-COVID levels in February 2020, and they're only down 2.9% from post-COVID highs. Only Tampa is up more than Miami from pre-COVID levels (+61.04%), but Tampa prices are down more from their post-COVID highs (-4.70%) than Miami (-2.90%).
Four cities are down more than 10% from their post-COVID highs: San Diego (-10.12%), Las Vegas (-10.95%), San Francisco (-16.35%), and Seattle (-16.50%). New York is down the least from post-COVID highs of any city tracked at just -2.9%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Below we include charts of home price levels across all 20 cities tracked by Case Shiller along with the three composite indices. We've included a vertical red line on each chart to highlight pre-COVID levels. When looking through the charts, you can see this month's small bounce back in most cities after a 6-9 month pullback in prices from peaks seen early last year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 5th, 2023

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/2/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
($NIO $GTLB $GME $CIEN $DOCU $SAIC $ASO $SJM $CXM $THO $OLLI $MOMO $CBRL $FERG $TTC $HQY $CPB $PLAY $QMCO $FCEL $LOVE $ABM $CNM $HTOO $TCOM $JOAN $UNFI $SFIX $CHS $GIII $SIG $SMAR $PL $ZFOX $HYZN $VRA $CASY $MTN $SMTC $ALYA $DBI $SCWX $JILL $OESX $BSE $REVG $VBNK $VRNT $RENT $HCP)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(N/A.)
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 6.5.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Monday 6.5.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.6.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.6.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.7.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.7.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.8.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.8.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 6.9.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!)

Friday 6.9.23 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead EarningsWhispers. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to EarningsWhispers [link] [comments]

2023.06.02 23:38 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023

Good Friday evening to all of you here on StocksMarket! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.

Dow leaps 700 points on hot jobs report, Nasdaq notches sixth straight winning week: Live updates - (Source)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged Friday as traders cheered a strong jobs report and the passage of a debt ceiling bill that averts a U.S. default.
The 30-stock Dow jumped 701.19 points, or 2.12%, to end at 33,762.76 — its best day since January. The S&P 500 climbed 1.45% to close at 4,282.37. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.07% to 13,240.77, reaching its highest level since April 2022 during the session.
With Friday’s gains, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished the holiday-shortened trading week about 1.8% and 2% higher, respectively. The Dow’s Friday advance pushed it into positive territory for the week, finishing up around 2%. The Nasdaq notched its sixth straight week higher, a streak length not seen for the technology-heavy index since 2020.
Nonfarm payrolls grew much more than expected in May, rising 339,000. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a relatively modest 190,000 increase. It marked the 29th straight month of positive job growth.
Recently strong employment data had been pressuring stocks on the notion it would keep the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. But Friday data also showed average hourly earnings rose less than economists expected year over year, while the unemployment rate was higher than anticipated.
Both data points have given investors hope that the Fed could pause its interest rate hike campaign at the policy meeting later this month, according to Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management.
“The so-called Goldilocks has entered the house,” Sandven said. “Clearly, on the bullish side, there are signs that inflation is starting to wane, speculation that the Fed is going to move into pause mode, increasing the likelihood of a soft landing.”
Easing concerns around the U.S. debt ceiling also helped sentiment. The Senate passed a bill to raise the debt ceiling late Thursday night, sending the bill to President Joe Biden’s desk. That comes after the House passed the Fiscal Responsibility Act on Wednesday, just days before the June 5 deadline set by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
Lululemon shares popped more than 11% on strong results and a guidance boost, while MongoDB surged 28% on a blowout forecast.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

A Resilient Labor Market = A Resilient Economy

Another month, another employment surprise. Should we be surprised anymore?
Economists expected payrolls to grow by about 187,000 in May. That’s still a solid job growth number, but a stepdown from what we’ve seen this year through April. However, actual payroll growth beat expectations for the 14th straight month.
The economy created 339,000 jobs in May, close to double expectations. Better still, payroll growth in March and April were revised higher by a total of 93,000!
  • March payrolls were revised up by 52,000, from 165,000 to 217,000
  • April payroll were revised up by 41,000, from 253,000 to 294,000
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
We’ve got two months of payroll data since the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March, and nothing suggests weakness arising from that banking crisis.
Over the first five months of the year, the economy’s added 1.5 million jobs. That in a nutshell tells you how the economy is doing. For perspective, the average annual payroll growth between 1940 and 2022 was 1.5 million. During the last expansion, 2010-2019, average annual payroll growth was 2.2 million per year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
But what about the unemployment rate?
The unemployment rate did rise from a 50-year low of 3.4% to 3.7%. This does raise some cause for concern but digging through the data suggests it may be noise more than anything else.
It probably helps to understand that the job growth and unemployment rate data come from different sources. The former comes from asking about 120,000+ businesses how many people they hired. The latter comes from asking about 60,000 households about their employment status. No surprise, the latter is noisier.
A big reason for the weak household survey (and rising unemployment rate) is that more than 400,000 people who were self-employed said they were no longer employed. As you can see in the following chart this is very noisy data, but the recent trend seems to be toward lower self-employment. It’s basically reversing the surge we saw in 2021, when self-employment surged. So, what we’re seeing now may simply be normalization of the labor market as more workers move from self-employment to W2 jobs with an employer.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Also, the unemployment rate can be impacted by people leaving the labor force (technically defined as those “not looking for work”) and an aging population. I’ve discussed in prior blogs how we can get around this by looking at the employment-population ratio for prime age workers, i.e. workers aged 25-54 years. This measures the number of people working as a percent of the civilian population. Think of it as the opposite of the unemployment rate, and because we use prime age, you also get around the demographic issue.
The good news is that the prime-age employment-population ratio dropped only a tick, from 80.8% to 80.7%. This still leaves it higher than at any point between 2002 and 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the labor market remains strong and resilient, despite all the recession calls. Perhaps its not as strong as the headline payroll growth number of 339,000 suggests, but any number above 150,000 would be good at this point. And we’re certainly well above that.
In fact, looking at the job growth and employment-population data, this labor market is probably the strongest we’ve seen since the late 1990’s. Our view since the end of last year has been that the economy can avoid a recession this year, and nothing we’ve seen to date suggests we need to reverse that view. Far from it.

June Better in Pre-Election Years

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Since 1971 June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks as a rule ranking eighth best with an 0.8% average gain, up 29 of 52 years. This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best 8 Months” which ends in June. Small caps also fare well in June. Russell 2000 has averaged 0.6% in June since 1979 advancing 63.6% of the time.
June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.2%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking ninth, but essentially flat (0.02% average gain).
Despite being much stronger S&P 500 pre-election year June ranks fifth best. For the rest it is just sixth best. Average monthly gains in pre-election year June range from DJIA 1.1% to a respectable 2.4% for NASDAQ. Russell 2000 has been the most consistently bullish in pre-election years, up 8 of the last 11 (72.7% of the time).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The June Swoon?

Stocks did it again, as the S&P 500 gained 0.2% in the month of May, making it now 10 of the past 11 years that stocks finished green in May. Of course, it gained only 0.01% last year and only 0.25% this year, so the recent returns weren’t off the charts by any measure.
Looking specifically at this year, tech added more than 9% in May, thanks to excitement over AI and Nvidia, with communication services and consumer discretionary also in the green, while the other eight sectors were lower.
Specifically, turning to the month of June, stocks historically have hit a bit of trouble here. Since 1950, up 0.03% on average, the fourth worst month of the year. Over the past 20 years, only January and September have been worse and in the past decade, it is again the fourth worst month. The one bit of good news is during a pre-election year is it up 1.5%, the fifth-best month of the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s another chart we’ve shared before, but years that gained big in January (like 2023) tend to see some periods of consolidation in late May/early June, but eventually experience a surge higher into July. Given the flattish overall May, this could be playing out again.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
What if stocks were having a good year heading into June? Since 1950, if the S&P 500 was up more than 8% for the year going into June (like this year), the month of June was up an impressive 1.2% on average versus the average June return of 0.03%, while in a pre-election year the returns jumped to 1.8%. The percent of the time where returns were higher gets better as well, from 54.8% in your average June to nearly 74% if up 8% or more for the year heading into June, to 80% of the time higher if up 8% for the year in a pre-election year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Overall, it has been a very nice run for stocks this year and we remain overweight stocks in the Carson Investment Research House Views. June could potentially cause some volatility, but when all is said and done, we wouldn’t bet against more strength and higher prices in June.

NASDAQ and Russell 2000 Lead June Pre-Election Strength

Over the last 21 years, June has been a rather lackluster month. DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 have all recorded average losses in the month. Russell 2000 has fared better with a modest average gain. Historically the month has opened respectably, advancing on the first and second trading days.
From there the market then drifted sideways and lower into negative territory just ahead of mid-month. Here the market rallied to create a nice mid-month bulge that quickly evaporated and returned to losses. The brisk, post, mid-month drop is typically followed by a month end rally led by technology and small caps.
Historical performance in pre-election years has been much stronger with all five indexes finishing with average gains. June’s overall pattern in pre-election is similar to the last 21-years pattern with a brief, shallow pullback after a solid start.
In pre-election years the mid-month rally has been much more robust beginning around the sixth trading day and lasting until the fifteenth. Followed by another modest retreat and rally into the end of Q2.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

May and YTD 2023 Asset Class Performance

May 2023 is now behind us, and below is a look at how various asset classes performed during the month using US-listed exchange-traded products as proxies. We also include YTD and YoY total returns.
May was a month of divergence where Tech/AI soared, and the rest of the market fell. Notably, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) gained 7.88% in May while the Dow Jones Dividend ETF (DVY) fell 7.7%. That's a 15 percentage-point spread!
At the sector level, it was a similar story. While the Tech sector (XLK) rose 8.9%, sectors like Energy (XLE), Consumer Staples (XLP), Materials (XLB), and Utilities (XLU) fell more than 5%. In total, 8 of 11 sectors were in the red for the month.
Outside the US, we saw pullbacks in most areas of the world other than Brazil, India, and Japan. China, Hong Kong, France, Canada, Italy, Spain, and the UK all fell more than 5%.
All of the commodity-related ETFs/ETNs were in the red for May, with oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) falling the most at more than 10% each.
Finally, fixed-income ETFs also fell in May as interest rates bounced back. The aggregate bond market ETF (AGG) was down 1.14% in May, leaving it up just 2.6% YTD and down 2.2% year-over-year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

How Worried Should We Be About Consumer Debt?

A very common question we get these days is whether we’re concerned about the massive increase in consumer debt.
Short answer: No. Well, not yet anyway. But let’s walk through it in 6 charts.
The New York Federal Reserve (NY Fed) releases a quarterly report on household debt and credit, and the latest one that was released last week came with the headline:
“Household Debt Hits $17.05 Trillion in First Quarter.” But let’s look at the details. Household debt increased by $148 billion in Q1. That translates to a 0.9% increase, which is the slowest quarterly increase in two years. Most of the increase in debt was from mortgage originations ($121 billion) – mortgage debt makes up $12 trillion of the total $17 trillion in debt. The rest was auto loan and student loan balances.
Here’s something interesting: credit card balances were flat in Q1, at $986 billion. The fact that overall balances are higher than where they were in 2019 ($927 billion) should not be surprising given we just experienced a lot of inflation. Prices rose at the fastest pace in 40 years, and so you should expect card balances to increase. However, incomes rose as well.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
When you think debt, the key question is whether households are able to service that debt. A good measure of that is to look at debt service costs as a percent of disposable income. As of Q4 2022, that’s at 9.7%, slightly lower than what it was before the pandemic and well below the historical average.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
There’s even better news: disposable income grew 2.9% in the first quarter of 2023. Significantly higher than the 0.9% increase in total household debt, let alone interest costs!
Part of that includes the large boost to social security income due to inflation adjustments in January. Also, tax brackets were adjusted higher, resulting in more money in household wallets.
But even if you exclude these one-off increases, disposable income growth has been strong between February and April, rising at a 5% annualized pace. In fact, employee compensation by itself has risen at a 3.9% annualized pace over the past three months. Meanwhile, inflation is running just about 3% – which means households are seeing real income gains (adjusted for inflation).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
This is why consumers don’t feel the need to borrow to the extent they did before the pandemic. Credit utilization rates measure credit card balances as a percent of available credit. As you can see in the following chart, utilization rates for both credit cards and home equity lines of credit are well below pre-pandemic averages.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lack of stress showing in delinquency data as well
Another way to look for signs of consumer stress is to look at the debt delinquency data. As of the first quarter, the NY Fed survey showed that the percent of loan balances that were more than 90 days delinquent was stable around 1.5%. That’s down from 1.9% a year ago, and quite a bit below the 3% average in 2019.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Even third-party collections are at record lows, with just over 5% of consumers having collections against them as of the first quarter. This is down from 6% a year ago and below the 2019 average of 9.2%. The average collection amount per person is $1,316, which is lower than the $1,452 average in late 2019. This is surprising because just with inflation you’d have thought the amount would be higher.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the data on consumer finances is not showing much cause for concern. So, count us in the “not worried” camp. At least, not yet.

Some Good Inflation News

While the market prices in a much higher likelihood of a rate hike at the June meeting, there was actually some decent news on the inflation front today. Starting with the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence report, in this month's update, the inflation expectations component fell to 6.1% from a peak of 7.9% fifteen months ago in March 2022 (first time reading touched 7.9%). Looking at the chart below, this reading was also at 6.1% fifteen months before that first peak. In other words, for all the talk about how inflation has been stickier, the pace of decline in this indicator on the way down has been the same as the pace of increase on the way up.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Another notable report was today's release of the Dallas Fed Manufacturing report. The Prices Paid component of that report showed a decline from 19.5 down to 13.8 which was the lowest reading since July 2020. For the month of May, two of the five components (Empire and Philadelphia) showed modest m/m increases from multi-month lows, and three showed significant declines to multi-month lows. The chart below shows a composite of the Prices Paid component using the z-scores for each of the five individual components going back to 2010. The peak for this component was 19 months ago in November 2021. Unlike the inflation expectations of the Conference Board survey, this reading hasn't declined quite as fast as it increased in the 19 months leading up to the peak, but at -0.2, it is still below its historical average dating back to 2010 and back down to levels it was at right before the COVID shock hit the economy in early 2020.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Home Prices Bounce in Hardest Hit Areas

March data on home prices across the country were released today with updated S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller numbers. Case Shiller home prices had been falling rapidly in many of the twenty cities tracked, but in March we actually saw a pretty big month-over-month bounce in some of the hardest-hit areas like San Diego, San Francisco, LA, Denver, and Phoenix. Some cities still saw declines, however. Las Vegas saw a m/m drop of 0.93%, while Miami fell 0.41%, and Seattle fell 0.28%.
On a year-over-year basis, Miami is still up the most with a gain of 10.86%. As shown in the table below, Miami home prices are up 59.87% from pre-COVID levels in February 2020, and they're only down 2.9% from post-COVID highs. Only Tampa is up more than Miami from pre-COVID levels (+61.04%), but Tampa prices are down more from their post-COVID highs (-4.70%) than Miami (-2.90%).
Four cities are down more than 10% from their post-COVID highs: San Diego (-10.12%), Las Vegas (-10.95%), San Francisco (-16.35%), and Seattle (-16.50%). New York is down the least from post-COVID highs of any city tracked at just -2.9%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Below we include charts of home price levels across all 20 cities tracked by Case Shiller along with the three composite indices. We've included a vertical red line on each chart to highlight pre-COVID levels. When looking through the charts, you can see this month's small bounce back in most cities after a 6-9 month pullback in prices from peaks seen early last year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 5th, 2023

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/2/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
($NIO $GTLB $GME $CIEN $DOCU $SAIC $ASO $SJM $CXM $THO $OLLI $MOMO $CBRL $FERG $TTC $HQY $CPB $PLAY $QMCO $FCEL $LOVE $ABM $CNM $HTOO $TCOM $JOAN $UNFI $SFIX $CHS $GIII $SIG $SMAR $PL $ZFOX $HYZN $VRA $CASY $MTN $SMTC $ALYA $DBI $SCWX $JILL $OESX $BSE $REVG $VBNK $VRNT $RENT $HCP)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(N/A.)
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 6.5.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Monday 6.5.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.6.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.6.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.7.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.7.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.8.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.8.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 6.9.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!)

Friday 6.9.23 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead StocksMarket. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to StocksMarket [link] [comments]

2023.06.02 23:37 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023

Good Friday evening to all of you here on FinancialMarket! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.

Dow leaps 700 points on hot jobs report, Nasdaq notches sixth straight winning week: Live updates - (Source)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged Friday as traders cheered a strong jobs report and the passage of a debt ceiling bill that averts a U.S. default.
The 30-stock Dow jumped 701.19 points, or 2.12%, to end at 33,762.76 — its best day since January. The S&P 500 climbed 1.45% to close at 4,282.37. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.07% to 13,240.77, reaching its highest level since April 2022 during the session.
With Friday’s gains, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished the holiday-shortened trading week about 1.8% and 2% higher, respectively. The Dow’s Friday advance pushed it into positive territory for the week, finishing up around 2%. The Nasdaq notched its sixth straight week higher, a streak length not seen for the technology-heavy index since 2020.
Nonfarm payrolls grew much more than expected in May, rising 339,000. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a relatively modest 190,000 increase. It marked the 29th straight month of positive job growth.
Recently strong employment data had been pressuring stocks on the notion it would keep the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. But Friday data also showed average hourly earnings rose less than economists expected year over year, while the unemployment rate was higher than anticipated.
Both data points have given investors hope that the Fed could pause its interest rate hike campaign at the policy meeting later this month, according to Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management.
“The so-called Goldilocks has entered the house,” Sandven said. “Clearly, on the bullish side, there are signs that inflation is starting to wane, speculation that the Fed is going to move into pause mode, increasing the likelihood of a soft landing.”
Easing concerns around the U.S. debt ceiling also helped sentiment. The Senate passed a bill to raise the debt ceiling late Thursday night, sending the bill to President Joe Biden’s desk. That comes after the House passed the Fiscal Responsibility Act on Wednesday, just days before the June 5 deadline set by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
Lululemon shares popped more than 11% on strong results and a guidance boost, while MongoDB surged 28% on a blowout forecast.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

A Resilient Labor Market = A Resilient Economy

Another month, another employment surprise. Should we be surprised anymore?
Economists expected payrolls to grow by about 187,000 in May. That’s still a solid job growth number, but a stepdown from what we’ve seen this year through April. However, actual payroll growth beat expectations for the 14th straight month.
The economy created 339,000 jobs in May, close to double expectations. Better still, payroll growth in March and April were revised higher by a total of 93,000!
  • March payrolls were revised up by 52,000, from 165,000 to 217,000
  • April payroll were revised up by 41,000, from 253,000 to 294,000
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
We’ve got two months of payroll data since the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March, and nothing suggests weakness arising from that banking crisis.
Over the first five months of the year, the economy’s added 1.5 million jobs. That in a nutshell tells you how the economy is doing. For perspective, the average annual payroll growth between 1940 and 2022 was 1.5 million. During the last expansion, 2010-2019, average annual payroll growth was 2.2 million per year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
But what about the unemployment rate?
The unemployment rate did rise from a 50-year low of 3.4% to 3.7%. This does raise some cause for concern but digging through the data suggests it may be noise more than anything else.
It probably helps to understand that the job growth and unemployment rate data come from different sources. The former comes from asking about 120,000+ businesses how many people they hired. The latter comes from asking about 60,000 households about their employment status. No surprise, the latter is noisier.
A big reason for the weak household survey (and rising unemployment rate) is that more than 400,000 people who were self-employed said they were no longer employed. As you can see in the following chart this is very noisy data, but the recent trend seems to be toward lower self-employment. It’s basically reversing the surge we saw in 2021, when self-employment surged. So, what we’re seeing now may simply be normalization of the labor market as more workers move from self-employment to W2 jobs with an employer.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Also, the unemployment rate can be impacted by people leaving the labor force (technically defined as those “not looking for work”) and an aging population. I’ve discussed in prior blogs how we can get around this by looking at the employment-population ratio for prime age workers, i.e. workers aged 25-54 years. This measures the number of people working as a percent of the civilian population. Think of it as the opposite of the unemployment rate, and because we use prime age, you also get around the demographic issue.
The good news is that the prime-age employment-population ratio dropped only a tick, from 80.8% to 80.7%. This still leaves it higher than at any point between 2002 and 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the labor market remains strong and resilient, despite all the recession calls. Perhaps its not as strong as the headline payroll growth number of 339,000 suggests, but any number above 150,000 would be good at this point. And we’re certainly well above that.
In fact, looking at the job growth and employment-population data, this labor market is probably the strongest we’ve seen since the late 1990’s. Our view since the end of last year has been that the economy can avoid a recession this year, and nothing we’ve seen to date suggests we need to reverse that view. Far from it.

June Better in Pre-Election Years

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Since 1971 June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks as a rule ranking eighth best with an 0.8% average gain, up 29 of 52 years. This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best 8 Months” which ends in June. Small caps also fare well in June. Russell 2000 has averaged 0.6% in June since 1979 advancing 63.6% of the time.
June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.2%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking ninth, but essentially flat (0.02% average gain).
Despite being much stronger S&P 500 pre-election year June ranks fifth best. For the rest it is just sixth best. Average monthly gains in pre-election year June range from DJIA 1.1% to a respectable 2.4% for NASDAQ. Russell 2000 has been the most consistently bullish in pre-election years, up 8 of the last 11 (72.7% of the time).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The June Swoon?

Stocks did it again, as the S&P 500 gained 0.2% in the month of May, making it now 10 of the past 11 years that stocks finished green in May. Of course, it gained only 0.01% last year and only 0.25% this year, so the recent returns weren’t off the charts by any measure.
Looking specifically at this year, tech added more than 9% in May, thanks to excitement over AI and Nvidia, with communication services and consumer discretionary also in the green, while the other eight sectors were lower.
Specifically, turning to the month of June, stocks historically have hit a bit of trouble here. Since 1950, up 0.03% on average, the fourth worst month of the year. Over the past 20 years, only January and September have been worse and in the past decade, it is again the fourth worst month. The one bit of good news is during a pre-election year is it up 1.5%, the fifth-best month of the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s another chart we’ve shared before, but years that gained big in January (like 2023) tend to see some periods of consolidation in late May/early June, but eventually experience a surge higher into July. Given the flattish overall May, this could be playing out again.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
What if stocks were having a good year heading into June? Since 1950, if the S&P 500 was up more than 8% for the year going into June (like this year), the month of June was up an impressive 1.2% on average versus the average June return of 0.03%, while in a pre-election year the returns jumped to 1.8%. The percent of the time where returns were higher gets better as well, from 54.8% in your average June to nearly 74% if up 8% or more for the year heading into June, to 80% of the time higher if up 8% for the year in a pre-election year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Overall, it has been a very nice run for stocks this year and we remain overweight stocks in the Carson Investment Research House Views. June could potentially cause some volatility, but when all is said and done, we wouldn’t bet against more strength and higher prices in June.

NASDAQ and Russell 2000 Lead June Pre-Election Strength

Over the last 21 years, June has been a rather lackluster month. DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 have all recorded average losses in the month. Russell 2000 has fared better with a modest average gain. Historically the month has opened respectably, advancing on the first and second trading days.
From there the market then drifted sideways and lower into negative territory just ahead of mid-month. Here the market rallied to create a nice mid-month bulge that quickly evaporated and returned to losses. The brisk, post, mid-month drop is typically followed by a month end rally led by technology and small caps.
Historical performance in pre-election years has been much stronger with all five indexes finishing with average gains. June’s overall pattern in pre-election is similar to the last 21-years pattern with a brief, shallow pullback after a solid start.
In pre-election years the mid-month rally has been much more robust beginning around the sixth trading day and lasting until the fifteenth. Followed by another modest retreat and rally into the end of Q2.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

May and YTD 2023 Asset Class Performance

May 2023 is now behind us, and below is a look at how various asset classes performed during the month using US-listed exchange-traded products as proxies. We also include YTD and YoY total returns.
May was a month of divergence where Tech/AI soared, and the rest of the market fell. Notably, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) gained 7.88% in May while the Dow Jones Dividend ETF (DVY) fell 7.7%. That's a 15 percentage-point spread!
At the sector level, it was a similar story. While the Tech sector (XLK) rose 8.9%, sectors like Energy (XLE), Consumer Staples (XLP), Materials (XLB), and Utilities (XLU) fell more than 5%. In total, 8 of 11 sectors were in the red for the month.
Outside the US, we saw pullbacks in most areas of the world other than Brazil, India, and Japan. China, Hong Kong, France, Canada, Italy, Spain, and the UK all fell more than 5%.
All of the commodity-related ETFs/ETNs were in the red for May, with oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) falling the most at more than 10% each.
Finally, fixed-income ETFs also fell in May as interest rates bounced back. The aggregate bond market ETF (AGG) was down 1.14% in May, leaving it up just 2.6% YTD and down 2.2% year-over-year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

How Worried Should We Be About Consumer Debt?

A very common question we get these days is whether we’re concerned about the massive increase in consumer debt.
Short answer: No. Well, not yet anyway. But let’s walk through it in 6 charts.
The New York Federal Reserve (NY Fed) releases a quarterly report on household debt and credit, and the latest one that was released last week came with the headline:
“Household Debt Hits $17.05 Trillion in First Quarter.” But let’s look at the details. Household debt increased by $148 billion in Q1. That translates to a 0.9% increase, which is the slowest quarterly increase in two years. Most of the increase in debt was from mortgage originations ($121 billion) – mortgage debt makes up $12 trillion of the total $17 trillion in debt. The rest was auto loan and student loan balances.
Here’s something interesting: credit card balances were flat in Q1, at $986 billion. The fact that overall balances are higher than where they were in 2019 ($927 billion) should not be surprising given we just experienced a lot of inflation. Prices rose at the fastest pace in 40 years, and so you should expect card balances to increase. However, incomes rose as well.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
When you think debt, the key question is whether households are able to service that debt. A good measure of that is to look at debt service costs as a percent of disposable income. As of Q4 2022, that’s at 9.7%, slightly lower than what it was before the pandemic and well below the historical average.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
There’s even better news: disposable income grew 2.9% in the first quarter of 2023. Significantly higher than the 0.9% increase in total household debt, let alone interest costs!
Part of that includes the large boost to social security income due to inflation adjustments in January. Also, tax brackets were adjusted higher, resulting in more money in household wallets.
But even if you exclude these one-off increases, disposable income growth has been strong between February and April, rising at a 5% annualized pace. In fact, employee compensation by itself has risen at a 3.9% annualized pace over the past three months. Meanwhile, inflation is running just about 3% – which means households are seeing real income gains (adjusted for inflation).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
This is why consumers don’t feel the need to borrow to the extent they did before the pandemic. Credit utilization rates measure credit card balances as a percent of available credit. As you can see in the following chart, utilization rates for both credit cards and home equity lines of credit are well below pre-pandemic averages.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lack of stress showing in delinquency data as well
Another way to look for signs of consumer stress is to look at the debt delinquency data. As of the first quarter, the NY Fed survey showed that the percent of loan balances that were more than 90 days delinquent was stable around 1.5%. That’s down from 1.9% a year ago, and quite a bit below the 3% average in 2019.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Even third-party collections are at record lows, with just over 5% of consumers having collections against them as of the first quarter. This is down from 6% a year ago and below the 2019 average of 9.2%. The average collection amount per person is $1,316, which is lower than the $1,452 average in late 2019. This is surprising because just with inflation you’d have thought the amount would be higher.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the data on consumer finances is not showing much cause for concern. So, count us in the “not worried” camp. At least, not yet.

Some Good Inflation News

While the market prices in a much higher likelihood of a rate hike at the June meeting, there was actually some decent news on the inflation front today. Starting with the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence report, in this month's update, the inflation expectations component fell to 6.1% from a peak of 7.9% fifteen months ago in March 2022 (first time reading touched 7.9%). Looking at the chart below, this reading was also at 6.1% fifteen months before that first peak. In other words, for all the talk about how inflation has been stickier, the pace of decline in this indicator on the way down has been the same as the pace of increase on the way up.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Another notable report was today's release of the Dallas Fed Manufacturing report. The Prices Paid component of that report showed a decline from 19.5 down to 13.8 which was the lowest reading since July 2020. For the month of May, two of the five components (Empire and Philadelphia) showed modest m/m increases from multi-month lows, and three showed significant declines to multi-month lows. The chart below shows a composite of the Prices Paid component using the z-scores for each of the five individual components going back to 2010. The peak for this component was 19 months ago in November 2021. Unlike the inflation expectations of the Conference Board survey, this reading hasn't declined quite as fast as it increased in the 19 months leading up to the peak, but at -0.2, it is still below its historical average dating back to 2010 and back down to levels it was at right before the COVID shock hit the economy in early 2020.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Home Prices Bounce in Hardest Hit Areas

March data on home prices across the country were released today with updated S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller numbers. Case Shiller home prices had been falling rapidly in many of the twenty cities tracked, but in March we actually saw a pretty big month-over-month bounce in some of the hardest-hit areas like San Diego, San Francisco, LA, Denver, and Phoenix. Some cities still saw declines, however. Las Vegas saw a m/m drop of 0.93%, while Miami fell 0.41%, and Seattle fell 0.28%.
On a year-over-year basis, Miami is still up the most with a gain of 10.86%. As shown in the table below, Miami home prices are up 59.87% from pre-COVID levels in February 2020, and they're only down 2.9% from post-COVID highs. Only Tampa is up more than Miami from pre-COVID levels (+61.04%), but Tampa prices are down more from their post-COVID highs (-4.70%) than Miami (-2.90%).
Four cities are down more than 10% from their post-COVID highs: San Diego (-10.12%), Las Vegas (-10.95%), San Francisco (-16.35%), and Seattle (-16.50%). New York is down the least from post-COVID highs of any city tracked at just -2.9%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Below we include charts of home price levels across all 20 cities tracked by Case Shiller along with the three composite indices. We've included a vertical red line on each chart to highlight pre-COVID levels. When looking through the charts, you can see this month's small bounce back in most cities after a 6-9 month pullback in prices from peaks seen early last year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 5th, 2023

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/2/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
($NIO $GTLB $GME $CIEN $DOCU $SAIC $ASO $SJM $CXM $THO $OLLI $MOMO $CBRL $FERG $TTC $HQY $CPB $PLAY $QMCO $FCEL $LOVE $ABM $CNM $HTOO $TCOM $JOAN $UNFI $SFIX $CHS $GIII $SIG $SMAR $PL $ZFOX $HYZN $VRA $CASY $MTN $SMTC $ALYA $DBI $SCWX $JILL $OESX $BSE $REVG $VBNK $VRNT $RENT $HCP)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(N/A.)
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 6.5.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Monday 6.5.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.6.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.6.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.7.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.7.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.8.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.8.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 6.9.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!)

Friday 6.9.23 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead FinancialMarket. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to FinancialMarket [link] [comments]

2023.06.02 23:35 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023

Good Friday evening to all of you here on stocks! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.

Dow leaps 700 points on hot jobs report, Nasdaq notches sixth straight winning week: Live updates - (Source)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged Friday as traders cheered a strong jobs report and the passage of a debt ceiling bill that averts a U.S. default.
The 30-stock Dow jumped 701.19 points, or 2.12%, to end at 33,762.76 — its best day since January. The S&P 500 climbed 1.45% to close at 4,282.37. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.07% to 13,240.77, reaching its highest level since April 2022 during the session.
With Friday’s gains, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished the holiday-shortened trading week about 1.8% and 2% higher, respectively. The Dow’s Friday advance pushed it into positive territory for the week, finishing up around 2%. The Nasdaq notched its sixth straight week higher, a streak length not seen for the technology-heavy index since 2020.
Nonfarm payrolls grew much more than expected in May, rising 339,000. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a relatively modest 190,000 increase. It marked the 29th straight month of positive job growth.
Recently strong employment data had been pressuring stocks on the notion it would keep the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. But Friday data also showed average hourly earnings rose less than economists expected year over year, while the unemployment rate was higher than anticipated.
Both data points have given investors hope that the Fed could pause its interest rate hike campaign at the policy meeting later this month, according to Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management.
“The so-called Goldilocks has entered the house,” Sandven said. “Clearly, on the bullish side, there are signs that inflation is starting to wane, speculation that the Fed is going to move into pause mode, increasing the likelihood of a soft landing.”
Easing concerns around the U.S. debt ceiling also helped sentiment. The Senate passed a bill to raise the debt ceiling late Thursday night, sending the bill to President Joe Biden’s desk. That comes after the House passed the Fiscal Responsibility Act on Wednesday, just days before the June 5 deadline set by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
Lululemon shares popped more than 11% on strong results and a guidance boost, while MongoDB surged 28% on a blowout forecast.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

A Resilient Labor Market = A Resilient Economy

Another month, another employment surprise. Should we be surprised anymore?
Economists expected payrolls to grow by about 187,000 in May. That’s still a solid job growth number, but a stepdown from what we’ve seen this year through April. However, actual payroll growth beat expectations for the 14th straight month.
The economy created 339,000 jobs in May, close to double expectations. Better still, payroll growth in March and April were revised higher by a total of 93,000!
  • March payrolls were revised up by 52,000, from 165,000 to 217,000
  • April payroll were revised up by 41,000, from 253,000 to 294,000
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
We’ve got two months of payroll data since the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March, and nothing suggests weakness arising from that banking crisis.
Over the first five months of the year, the economy’s added 1.5 million jobs. That in a nutshell tells you how the economy is doing. For perspective, the average annual payroll growth between 1940 and 2022 was 1.5 million. During the last expansion, 2010-2019, average annual payroll growth was 2.2 million per year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
But what about the unemployment rate?
The unemployment rate did rise from a 50-year low of 3.4% to 3.7%. This does raise some cause for concern but digging through the data suggests it may be noise more than anything else.
It probably helps to understand that the job growth and unemployment rate data come from different sources. The former comes from asking about 120,000+ businesses how many people they hired. The latter comes from asking about 60,000 households about their employment status. No surprise, the latter is noisier.
A big reason for the weak household survey (and rising unemployment rate) is that more than 400,000 people who were self-employed said they were no longer employed. As you can see in the following chart this is very noisy data, but the recent trend seems to be toward lower self-employment. It’s basically reversing the surge we saw in 2021, when self-employment surged. So, what we’re seeing now may simply be normalization of the labor market as more workers move from self-employment to W2 jobs with an employer.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Also, the unemployment rate can be impacted by people leaving the labor force (technically defined as those “not looking for work”) and an aging population. I’ve discussed in prior blogs how we can get around this by looking at the employment-population ratio for prime age workers, i.e. workers aged 25-54 years. This measures the number of people working as a percent of the civilian population. Think of it as the opposite of the unemployment rate, and because we use prime age, you also get around the demographic issue.
The good news is that the prime-age employment-population ratio dropped only a tick, from 80.8% to 80.7%. This still leaves it higher than at any point between 2002 and 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the labor market remains strong and resilient, despite all the recession calls. Perhaps its not as strong as the headline payroll growth number of 339,000 suggests, but any number above 150,000 would be good at this point. And we’re certainly well above that.
In fact, looking at the job growth and employment-population data, this labor market is probably the strongest we’ve seen since the late 1990’s. Our view since the end of last year has been that the economy can avoid a recession this year, and nothing we’ve seen to date suggests we need to reverse that view. Far from it.

June Better in Pre-Election Years

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Since 1971 June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks as a rule ranking eighth best with an 0.8% average gain, up 29 of 52 years. This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best 8 Months” which ends in June. Small caps also fare well in June. Russell 2000 has averaged 0.6% in June since 1979 advancing 63.6% of the time.
June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.2%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking ninth, but essentially flat (0.02% average gain).
Despite being much stronger S&P 500 pre-election year June ranks fifth best. For the rest it is just sixth best. Average monthly gains in pre-election year June range from DJIA 1.1% to a respectable 2.4% for NASDAQ. Russell 2000 has been the most consistently bullish in pre-election years, up 8 of the last 11 (72.7% of the time).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The June Swoon?

Stocks did it again, as the S&P 500 gained 0.2% in the month of May, making it now 10 of the past 11 years that stocks finished green in May. Of course, it gained only 0.01% last year and only 0.25% this year, so the recent returns weren’t off the charts by any measure.
Looking specifically at this year, tech added more than 9% in May, thanks to excitement over AI and Nvidia, with communication services and consumer discretionary also in the green, while the other eight sectors were lower.
Specifically, turning to the month of June, stocks historically have hit a bit of trouble here. Since 1950, up 0.03% on average, the fourth worst month of the year. Over the past 20 years, only January and September have been worse and in the past decade, it is again the fourth worst month. The one bit of good news is during a pre-election year is it up 1.5%, the fifth-best month of the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s another chart we’ve shared before, but years that gained big in January (like 2023) tend to see some periods of consolidation in late May/early June, but eventually experience a surge higher into July. Given the flattish overall May, this could be playing out again.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
What if stocks were having a good year heading into June? Since 1950, if the S&P 500 was up more than 8% for the year going into June (like this year), the month of June was up an impressive 1.2% on average versus the average June return of 0.03%, while in a pre-election year the returns jumped to 1.8%. The percent of the time where returns were higher gets better as well, from 54.8% in your average June to nearly 74% if up 8% or more for the year heading into June, to 80% of the time higher if up 8% for the year in a pre-election year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Overall, it has been a very nice run for stocks this year and we remain overweight stocks in the Carson Investment Research House Views. June could potentially cause some volatility, but when all is said and done, we wouldn’t bet against more strength and higher prices in June.

NASDAQ and Russell 2000 Lead June Pre-Election Strength

Over the last 21 years, June has been a rather lackluster month. DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 have all recorded average losses in the month. Russell 2000 has fared better with a modest average gain. Historically the month has opened respectably, advancing on the first and second trading days.
From there the market then drifted sideways and lower into negative territory just ahead of mid-month. Here the market rallied to create a nice mid-month bulge that quickly evaporated and returned to losses. The brisk, post, mid-month drop is typically followed by a month end rally led by technology and small caps.
Historical performance in pre-election years has been much stronger with all five indexes finishing with average gains. June’s overall pattern in pre-election is similar to the last 21-years pattern with a brief, shallow pullback after a solid start.
In pre-election years the mid-month rally has been much more robust beginning around the sixth trading day and lasting until the fifteenth. Followed by another modest retreat and rally into the end of Q2.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

May and YTD 2023 Asset Class Performance

May 2023 is now behind us, and below is a look at how various asset classes performed during the month using US-listed exchange-traded products as proxies. We also include YTD and YoY total returns.
May was a month of divergence where Tech/AI soared, and the rest of the market fell. Notably, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) gained 7.88% in May while the Dow Jones Dividend ETF (DVY) fell 7.7%. That's a 15 percentage-point spread!
At the sector level, it was a similar story. While the Tech sector (XLK) rose 8.9%, sectors like Energy (XLE), Consumer Staples (XLP), Materials (XLB), and Utilities (XLU) fell more than 5%. In total, 8 of 11 sectors were in the red for the month.
Outside the US, we saw pullbacks in most areas of the world other than Brazil, India, and Japan. China, Hong Kong, France, Canada, Italy, Spain, and the UK all fell more than 5%.
All of the commodity-related ETFs/ETNs were in the red for May, with oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) falling the most at more than 10% each.
Finally, fixed-income ETFs also fell in May as interest rates bounced back. The aggregate bond market ETF (AGG) was down 1.14% in May, leaving it up just 2.6% YTD and down 2.2% year-over-year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

How Worried Should We Be About Consumer Debt?

A very common question we get these days is whether we’re concerned about the massive increase in consumer debt.
Short answer: No. Well, not yet anyway. But let’s walk through it in 6 charts.
The New York Federal Reserve (NY Fed) releases a quarterly report on household debt and credit, and the latest one that was released last week came with the headline:
“Household Debt Hits $17.05 Trillion in First Quarter.” But let’s look at the details. Household debt increased by $148 billion in Q1. That translates to a 0.9% increase, which is the slowest quarterly increase in two years. Most of the increase in debt was from mortgage originations ($121 billion) – mortgage debt makes up $12 trillion of the total $17 trillion in debt. The rest was auto loan and student loan balances.
Here’s something interesting: credit card balances were flat in Q1, at $986 billion. The fact that overall balances are higher than where they were in 2019 ($927 billion) should not be surprising given we just experienced a lot of inflation. Prices rose at the fastest pace in 40 years, and so you should expect card balances to increase. However, incomes rose as well.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
When you think debt, the key question is whether households are able to service that debt. A good measure of that is to look at debt service costs as a percent of disposable income. As of Q4 2022, that’s at 9.7%, slightly lower than what it was before the pandemic and well below the historical average.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
There’s even better news: disposable income grew 2.9% in the first quarter of 2023. Significantly higher than the 0.9% increase in total household debt, let alone interest costs!
Part of that includes the large boost to social security income due to inflation adjustments in January. Also, tax brackets were adjusted higher, resulting in more money in household wallets.
But even if you exclude these one-off increases, disposable income growth has been strong between February and April, rising at a 5% annualized pace. In fact, employee compensation by itself has risen at a 3.9% annualized pace over the past three months. Meanwhile, inflation is running just about 3% – which means households are seeing real income gains (adjusted for inflation).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
This is why consumers don’t feel the need to borrow to the extent they did before the pandemic. Credit utilization rates measure credit card balances as a percent of available credit. As you can see in the following chart, utilization rates for both credit cards and home equity lines of credit are well below pre-pandemic averages.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lack of stress showing in delinquency data as well
Another way to look for signs of consumer stress is to look at the debt delinquency data. As of the first quarter, the NY Fed survey showed that the percent of loan balances that were more than 90 days delinquent was stable around 1.5%. That’s down from 1.9% a year ago, and quite a bit below the 3% average in 2019.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Even third-party collections are at record lows, with just over 5% of consumers having collections against them as of the first quarter. This is down from 6% a year ago and below the 2019 average of 9.2%. The average collection amount per person is $1,316, which is lower than the $1,452 average in late 2019. This is surprising because just with inflation you’d have thought the amount would be higher.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the data on consumer finances is not showing much cause for concern. So, count us in the “not worried” camp. At least, not yet.

Some Good Inflation News

While the market prices in a much higher likelihood of a rate hike at the June meeting, there was actually some decent news on the inflation front today. Starting with the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence report, in this month's update, the inflation expectations component fell to 6.1% from a peak of 7.9% fifteen months ago in March 2022 (first time reading touched 7.9%). Looking at the chart below, this reading was also at 6.1% fifteen months before that first peak. In other words, for all the talk about how inflation has been stickier, the pace of decline in this indicator on the way down has been the same as the pace of increase on the way up.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Another notable report was today's release of the Dallas Fed Manufacturing report. The Prices Paid component of that report showed a decline from 19.5 down to 13.8 which was the lowest reading since July 2020. For the month of May, two of the five components (Empire and Philadelphia) showed modest m/m increases from multi-month lows, and three showed significant declines to multi-month lows. The chart below shows a composite of the Prices Paid component using the z-scores for each of the five individual components going back to 2010. The peak for this component was 19 months ago in November 2021. Unlike the inflation expectations of the Conference Board survey, this reading hasn't declined quite as fast as it increased in the 19 months leading up to the peak, but at -0.2, it is still below its historical average dating back to 2010 and back down to levels it was at right before the COVID shock hit the economy in early 2020.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Home Prices Bounce in Hardest Hit Areas

March data on home prices across the country were released today with updated S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller numbers. Case Shiller home prices had been falling rapidly in many of the twenty cities tracked, but in March we actually saw a pretty big month-over-month bounce in some of the hardest-hit areas like San Diego, San Francisco, LA, Denver, and Phoenix. Some cities still saw declines, however. Las Vegas saw a m/m drop of 0.93%, while Miami fell 0.41%, and Seattle fell 0.28%.
On a year-over-year basis, Miami is still up the most with a gain of 10.86%. As shown in the table below, Miami home prices are up 59.87% from pre-COVID levels in February 2020, and they're only down 2.9% from post-COVID highs. Only Tampa is up more than Miami from pre-COVID levels (+61.04%), but Tampa prices are down more from their post-COVID highs (-4.70%) than Miami (-2.90%).
Four cities are down more than 10% from their post-COVID highs: San Diego (-10.12%), Las Vegas (-10.95%), San Francisco (-16.35%), and Seattle (-16.50%). New York is down the least from post-COVID highs of any city tracked at just -2.9%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Below we include charts of home price levels across all 20 cities tracked by Case Shiller along with the three composite indices. We've included a vertical red line on each chart to highlight pre-COVID levels. When looking through the charts, you can see this month's small bounce back in most cities after a 6-9 month pullback in prices from peaks seen early last year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
(*T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(N/A.)
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 6.5.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Monday 6.5.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.6.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.6.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.7.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.7.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.8.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.8.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 6.9.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!)

Friday 6.9.23 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead stocks. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to stocks [link] [comments]

2023.06.02 23:33 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023

Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarketChat! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.

Dow leaps 700 points on hot jobs report, Nasdaq notches sixth straight winning week: Live updates - (Source)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged Friday as traders cheered a strong jobs report and the passage of a debt ceiling bill that averts a U.S. default.
The 30-stock Dow jumped 701.19 points, or 2.12%, to end at 33,762.76 — its best day since January. The S&P 500 climbed 1.45% to close at 4,282.37. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.07% to 13,240.77, reaching its highest level since April 2022 during the session.
With Friday’s gains, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished the holiday-shortened trading week about 1.8% and 2% higher, respectively. The Dow’s Friday advance pushed it into positive territory for the week, finishing up around 2%. The Nasdaq notched its sixth straight week higher, a streak length not seen for the technology-heavy index since 2020.
Nonfarm payrolls grew much more than expected in May, rising 339,000. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a relatively modest 190,000 increase. It marked the 29th straight month of positive job growth.
Recently strong employment data had been pressuring stocks on the notion it would keep the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. But Friday data also showed average hourly earnings rose less than economists expected year over year, while the unemployment rate was higher than anticipated.
Both data points have given investors hope that the Fed could pause its interest rate hike campaign at the policy meeting later this month, according to Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management.
“The so-called Goldilocks has entered the house,” Sandven said. “Clearly, on the bullish side, there are signs that inflation is starting to wane, speculation that the Fed is going to move into pause mode, increasing the likelihood of a soft landing.”
Easing concerns around the U.S. debt ceiling also helped sentiment. The Senate passed a bill to raise the debt ceiling late Thursday night, sending the bill to President Joe Biden’s desk. That comes after the House passed the Fiscal Responsibility Act on Wednesday, just days before the June 5 deadline set by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
Lululemon shares popped more than 11% on strong results and a guidance boost, while MongoDB surged 28% on a blowout forecast.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

A Resilient Labor Market = A Resilient Economy

Another month, another employment surprise. Should we be surprised anymore?
Economists expected payrolls to grow by about 187,000 in May. That’s still a solid job growth number, but a stepdown from what we’ve seen this year through April. However, actual payroll growth beat expectations for the 14th straight month.
The economy created 339,000 jobs in May, close to double expectations. Better still, payroll growth in March and April were revised higher by a total of 93,000!
  • March payrolls were revised up by 52,000, from 165,000 to 217,000
  • April payroll were revised up by 41,000, from 253,000 to 294,000
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
We’ve got two months of payroll data since the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March, and nothing suggests weakness arising from that banking crisis.
Over the first five months of the year, the economy’s added 1.5 million jobs. That in a nutshell tells you how the economy is doing. For perspective, the average annual payroll growth between 1940 and 2022 was 1.5 million. During the last expansion, 2010-2019, average annual payroll growth was 2.2 million per year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
But what about the unemployment rate?
The unemployment rate did rise from a 50-year low of 3.4% to 3.7%. This does raise some cause for concern but digging through the data suggests it may be noise more than anything else.
It probably helps to understand that the job growth and unemployment rate data come from different sources. The former comes from asking about 120,000+ businesses how many people they hired. The latter comes from asking about 60,000 households about their employment status. No surprise, the latter is noisier.
A big reason for the weak household survey (and rising unemployment rate) is that more than 400,000 people who were self-employed said they were no longer employed. As you can see in the following chart this is very noisy data, but the recent trend seems to be toward lower self-employment. It’s basically reversing the surge we saw in 2021, when self-employment surged. So, what we’re seeing now may simply be normalization of the labor market as more workers move from self-employment to W2 jobs with an employer.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Also, the unemployment rate can be impacted by people leaving the labor force (technically defined as those “not looking for work”) and an aging population. I’ve discussed in prior blogs how we can get around this by looking at the employment-population ratio for prime age workers, i.e. workers aged 25-54 years. This measures the number of people working as a percent of the civilian population. Think of it as the opposite of the unemployment rate, and because we use prime age, you also get around the demographic issue.
The good news is that the prime-age employment-population ratio dropped only a tick, from 80.8% to 80.7%. This still leaves it higher than at any point between 2002 and 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the labor market remains strong and resilient, despite all the recession calls. Perhaps its not as strong as the headline payroll growth number of 339,000 suggests, but any number above 150,000 would be good at this point. And we’re certainly well above that.
In fact, looking at the job growth and employment-population data, this labor market is probably the strongest we’ve seen since the late 1990’s. Our view since the end of last year has been that the economy can avoid a recession this year, and nothing we’ve seen to date suggests we need to reverse that view. Far from it.

June Better in Pre-Election Years

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Since 1971 June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks as a rule ranking eighth best with an 0.8% average gain, up 29 of 52 years. This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best 8 Months” which ends in June. Small caps also fare well in June. Russell 2000 has averaged 0.6% in June since 1979 advancing 63.6% of the time.
June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.2%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking ninth, but essentially flat (0.02% average gain).
Despite being much stronger S&P 500 pre-election year June ranks fifth best. For the rest it is just sixth best. Average monthly gains in pre-election year June range from DJIA 1.1% to a respectable 2.4% for NASDAQ. Russell 2000 has been the most consistently bullish in pre-election years, up 8 of the last 11 (72.7% of the time).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

The June Swoon?

Stocks did it again, as the S&P 500 gained 0.2% in the month of May, making it now 10 of the past 11 years that stocks finished green in May. Of course, it gained only 0.01% last year and only 0.25% this year, so the recent returns weren’t off the charts by any measure.
Looking specifically at this year, tech added more than 9% in May, thanks to excitement over AI and Nvidia, with communication services and consumer discretionary also in the green, while the other eight sectors were lower.
Specifically, turning to the month of June, stocks historically have hit a bit of trouble here. Since 1950, up 0.03% on average, the fourth worst month of the year. Over the past 20 years, only January and September have been worse and in the past decade, it is again the fourth worst month. The one bit of good news is during a pre-election year is it up 1.5%, the fifth-best month of the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s another chart we’ve shared before, but years that gained big in January (like 2023) tend to see some periods of consolidation in late May/early June, but eventually experience a surge higher into July. Given the flattish overall May, this could be playing out again.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
What if stocks were having a good year heading into June? Since 1950, if the S&P 500 was up more than 8% for the year going into June (like this year), the month of June was up an impressive 1.2% on average versus the average June return of 0.03%, while in a pre-election year the returns jumped to 1.8%. The percent of the time where returns were higher gets better as well, from 54.8% in your average June to nearly 74% if up 8% or more for the year heading into June, to 80% of the time higher if up 8% for the year in a pre-election year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Overall, it has been a very nice run for stocks this year and we remain overweight stocks in the Carson Investment Research House Views. June could potentially cause some volatility, but when all is said and done, we wouldn’t bet against more strength and higher prices in June.

NASDAQ and Russell 2000 Lead June Pre-Election Strength

Over the last 21 years, June has been a rather lackluster month. DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 have all recorded average losses in the month. Russell 2000 has fared better with a modest average gain. Historically the month has opened respectably, advancing on the first and second trading days.
From there the market then drifted sideways and lower into negative territory just ahead of mid-month. Here the market rallied to create a nice mid-month bulge that quickly evaporated and returned to losses. The brisk, post, mid-month drop is typically followed by a month end rally led by technology and small caps.
Historical performance in pre-election years has been much stronger with all five indexes finishing with average gains. June’s overall pattern in pre-election is similar to the last 21-years pattern with a brief, shallow pullback after a solid start.
In pre-election years the mid-month rally has been much more robust beginning around the sixth trading day and lasting until the fifteenth. Followed by another modest retreat and rally into the end of Q2.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

May and YTD 2023 Asset Class Performance

May 2023 is now behind us, and below is a look at how various asset classes performed during the month using US-listed exchange-traded products as proxies. We also include YTD and YoY total returns.
May was a month of divergence where Tech/AI soared, and the rest of the market fell. Notably, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) gained 7.88% in May while the Dow Jones Dividend ETF (DVY) fell 7.7%. That's a 15 percentage-point spread!
At the sector level, it was a similar story. While the Tech sector (XLK) rose 8.9%, sectors like Energy (XLE), Consumer Staples (XLP), Materials (XLB), and Utilities (XLU) fell more than 5%. In total, 8 of 11 sectors were in the red for the month.
Outside the US, we saw pullbacks in most areas of the world other than Brazil, India, and Japan. China, Hong Kong, France, Canada, Italy, Spain, and the UK all fell more than 5%.
All of the commodity-related ETFs/ETNs were in the red for May, with oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) falling the most at more than 10% each.
Finally, fixed-income ETFs also fell in May as interest rates bounced back. The aggregate bond market ETF (AGG) was down 1.14% in May, leaving it up just 2.6% YTD and down 2.2% year-over-year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

How Worried Should We Be About Consumer Debt?

A very common question we get these days is whether we’re concerned about the massive increase in consumer debt.
Short answer: No. Well, not yet anyway. But let’s walk through it in 6 charts.
The New York Federal Reserve (NY Fed) releases a quarterly report on household debt and credit, and the latest one that was released last week came with the headline:
“Household Debt Hits $17.05 Trillion in First Quarter.” But let’s look at the details. Household debt increased by $148 billion in Q1. That translates to a 0.9% increase, which is the slowest quarterly increase in two years. Most of the increase in debt was from mortgage originations ($121 billion) – mortgage debt makes up $12 trillion of the total $17 trillion in debt. The rest was auto loan and student loan balances.
Here’s something interesting: credit card balances were flat in Q1, at $986 billion. The fact that overall balances are higher than where they were in 2019 ($927 billion) should not be surprising given we just experienced a lot of inflation. Prices rose at the fastest pace in 40 years, and so you should expect card balances to increase. However, incomes rose as well.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
When you think debt, the key question is whether households are able to service that debt. A good measure of that is to look at debt service costs as a percent of disposable income. As of Q4 2022, that’s at 9.7%, slightly lower than what it was before the pandemic and well below the historical average.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
There’s even better news: disposable income grew 2.9% in the first quarter of 2023. Significantly higher than the 0.9% increase in total household debt, let alone interest costs!
Part of that includes the large boost to social security income due to inflation adjustments in January. Also, tax brackets were adjusted higher, resulting in more money in household wallets.
But even if you exclude these one-off increases, disposable income growth has been strong between February and April, rising at a 5% annualized pace. In fact, employee compensation by itself has risen at a 3.9% annualized pace over the past three months. Meanwhile, inflation is running just about 3% – which means households are seeing real income gains (adjusted for inflation).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
This is why consumers don’t feel the need to borrow to the extent they did before the pandemic. Credit utilization rates measure credit card balances as a percent of available credit. As you can see in the following chart, utilization rates for both credit cards and home equity lines of credit are well below pre-pandemic averages.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lack of stress showing in delinquency data as well
Another way to look for signs of consumer stress is to look at the debt delinquency data. As of the first quarter, the NY Fed survey showed that the percent of loan balances that were more than 90 days delinquent was stable around 1.5%. That’s down from 1.9% a year ago, and quite a bit below the 3% average in 2019.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Even third-party collections are at record lows, with just over 5% of consumers having collections against them as of the first quarter. This is down from 6% a year ago and below the 2019 average of 9.2%. The average collection amount per person is $1,316, which is lower than the $1,452 average in late 2019. This is surprising because just with inflation you’d have thought the amount would be higher.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the data on consumer finances is not showing much cause for concern. So, count us in the “not worried” camp. At least, not yet.

Some Good Inflation News

While the market prices in a much higher likelihood of a rate hike at the June meeting, there was actually some decent news on the inflation front today. Starting with the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence report, in this month's update, the inflation expectations component fell to 6.1% from a peak of 7.9% fifteen months ago in March 2022 (first time reading touched 7.9%). Looking at the chart below, this reading was also at 6.1% fifteen months before that first peak. In other words, for all the talk about how inflation has been stickier, the pace of decline in this indicator on the way down has been the same as the pace of increase on the way up.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Another notable report was today's release of the Dallas Fed Manufacturing report. The Prices Paid component of that report showed a decline from 19.5 down to 13.8 which was the lowest reading since July 2020. For the month of May, two of the five components (Empire and Philadelphia) showed modest m/m increases from multi-month lows, and three showed significant declines to multi-month lows. The chart below shows a composite of the Prices Paid component using the z-scores for each of the five individual components going back to 2010. The peak for this component was 19 months ago in November 2021. Unlike the inflation expectations of the Conference Board survey, this reading hasn't declined quite as fast as it increased in the 19 months leading up to the peak, but at -0.2, it is still below its historical average dating back to 2010 and back down to levels it was at right before the COVID shock hit the economy in early 2020.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Home Prices Bounce in Hardest Hit Areas

March data on home prices across the country were released today with updated S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller numbers. Case Shiller home prices had been falling rapidly in many of the twenty cities tracked, but in March we actually saw a pretty big month-over-month bounce in some of the hardest-hit areas like San Diego, San Francisco, LA, Denver, and Phoenix. Some cities still saw declines, however. Las Vegas saw a m/m drop of 0.93%, while Miami fell 0.41%, and Seattle fell 0.28%.
On a year-over-year basis, Miami is still up the most with a gain of 10.86%. As shown in the table below, Miami home prices are up 59.87% from pre-COVID levels in February 2020, and they're only down 2.9% from post-COVID highs. Only Tampa is up more than Miami from pre-COVID levels (+61.04%), but Tampa prices are down more from their post-COVID highs (-4.70%) than Miami (-2.90%).
Four cities are down more than 10% from their post-COVID highs: San Diego (-10.12%), Las Vegas (-10.95%), San Francisco (-16.35%), and Seattle (-16.50%). New York is down the least from post-COVID highs of any city tracked at just -2.9%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Below we include charts of home price levels across all 20 cities tracked by Case Shiller along with the three composite indices. We've included a vertical red line on each chart to highlight pre-COVID levels. When looking through the charts, you can see this month's small bounce back in most cities after a 6-9 month pullback in prices from peaks seen early last year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 5th, 2023

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/2/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
($NIO $GTLB $GME $CIEN $DOCU $SAIC $ASO $SJM $CXM $THO $OLLI $MOMO $CBRL $FERG $TTC $HQY $CPB $PLAY $QMCO $FCEL $LOVE $ABM $CNM $HTOO $TCOM $JOAN $UNFI $SFIX $CHS $GIII $SIG $SMAR $PL $ZFOX $HYZN $VRA $CASY $MTN $SMTC $ALYA $DBI $SCWX $JILL $OESX $BSE $REVG $VBNK $VRNT $RENT $HCP)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(N/A.)
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 6.5.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Monday 6.5.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.6.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 6.6.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.7.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 6.7.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.8.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 6.8.23 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 6.9.23 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!)

Friday 6.9.23 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead StockMarketChat. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to StockMarketChat [link] [comments]

2023.06.02 22:33 kaozennrk Is Fresh Water Swimming Generally Safe or Not?

Like the title says: Are there creatures or otherwise dangerous stuff in the rivers, streams and lakes in PR? Can I swim safely in a place like Lago Luchetti Recreation Area or plunge without worry into a waterfall pool? How about wading across a knee deep steam? I like to explore and making sure I know what to beware of in the water.
submitted by kaozennrk to PuertoRicoTravel [link] [comments]