Back extension vs glute ham raise
Varro Trading Journal 6/3/2023
2023.06.03 18:37 Varro35 Varro Trading Journal 6/3/2023
 | Intro submitted by Varro35 to Vitards [link] [comments] Hi All, I am going to start turning these posts into more of a trading journal because there is a limited amount of new information to put out that I haven’t already covered in the past. In my personal life we just gave birth to a baby girl last week and I have a 20 month old son so time has become even more valuable than it was before. I have decided to take trading much more seriously. I am attempting to focus on both my career in tech sales and in trading. I am doing less of some of the things I enjoy but that are getting in the way such as video games, surfing Reddit, and watching the market. I will start keeping track of overall trading account balance, monthly performance, and log every trade. I believe I have all the tools needed to create true wealth - time to stop fucking around. Below is a collection of working notes that I am working with that some may fund useful: Risk Management
https://preview.redd.it/u7o6cpgw3u3b1.png?width=2340&format=png&auto=webp&s=141fd4c49275c73a424ec783529bb41b3aa5a117 Selected Steel Company Notes
CMC Shares + Jan 50 Calls MT Sept 30 Calls STLD Shares + Short STLD June 85 Puts + Long STLD June 100 Calls TX Shares + TX Aug 40 Calls X Shares + Oct 25 Calls |
2023.06.03 18:20 Exciting-Salad-8990 Lottie Matthews: Grappling with Modernity
I’ve found myself thinking a lot about Lottie while rewatching season two. People say she feels like a different character from season one, but I don’t agree. The girl who offered a bear heart to a tree stump and said ‘let the darkness set us free’ is the same girl who put blood in people’s drinks and told Shauna to ‘open herself to the pain’ during childbirth, and her self-doubt was just as prevalent in season one as it is in season two. She’s a character that walks in ambiguity, vacillating between danger and compassion, shadow and sunlight, reason and madness, reality and unreality.
There’s this constant push-pull at play: how much is it Lottie’s responsibility to bear as the instigator of the ‘Wilderness cult’, and how much are the other girls shifting complicity off themselves and onto Lottie instead? (In a similar fashion to how they use the Wilderness as external justification for violent actions.) It’s a lot more compelling of a dichotomy than I initially realized, and the answer is more complicated than ‘Lottie is entirely at fault’ and ‘Lottie is entirely innocent’.
Where I stumbled a bit was with adult Lottie. While I enjoyed Simone Kessel’s portrayal of Lottie entering a manic state, once she pulled out the phenobarbital, any ambiguity was lost. Even before that, there was a sense of artifice to everything Lottie did and said in the present timeline that simply did not compute with what I was witnessing in the 90s timeline. It didn’t feel like a problem with the actress, it felt like an intentional decision on the writers/directors end. There’s a meaningful contradiction here, begging to be examined critically. I couldn’t wrap my head around it at first, but the more I’ve contemplated potential reasoning, the more I’ve come around to a new interpretation of both Lottie Matthews and the Wilderness metaphor.
Lottie, more than any other character on the show, really struggles to exist within the realm of modernity. We see this from pretty much every survivor of the crash, I think: they survived because they were able to abandon their ties to civilization and shift into a more primal state of existence--not just shift, but flourish in ways they never could back home. But Lottie, and perhaps Nat, struggles the most with reintegration upon being rescued. (At least outwardly.) The Wilderness represents antiquity, which might be a reason the Ancient Greece motifs are so prevalent in the 90s timeline.
When I use the term modernity, I mean it in a very specific sense. Post-industrialized, secular society. While perusing several articles to help clarify my thoughts, I came across this piece: 'Is Modernity our Antiquity?' • Afterall
It’s a beautifully written essay that I suggest reading if you’re at all interested in philosophy. But I’ll pull only the pertinent quotes to underline my points for those who don’t care. The essay offers this definition of modernity:
(I’m also intrigued by the interplay between the public and private sphere in the present timeline. In the past, everything is intimate. In the present, everything is obfuscated by distance and technology.)
An addendum: This is only about the ideas presented in season two, not necessarily their execution. Nor is it intended to assess the morality or ethics of the past and present timelines, rather compare and contrast them, and the resonances and metaphors both are attempting to evoke.
submitted by Exciting-Salad-8990 to Yellowjackets [link] [comments]
There’s this constant push-pull at play: how much is it Lottie’s responsibility to bear as the instigator of the ‘Wilderness cult’, and how much are the other girls shifting complicity off themselves and onto Lottie instead? (In a similar fashion to how they use the Wilderness as external justification for violent actions.) It’s a lot more compelling of a dichotomy than I initially realized, and the answer is more complicated than ‘Lottie is entirely at fault’ and ‘Lottie is entirely innocent’.
Where I stumbled a bit was with adult Lottie. While I enjoyed Simone Kessel’s portrayal of Lottie entering a manic state, once she pulled out the phenobarbital, any ambiguity was lost. Even before that, there was a sense of artifice to everything Lottie did and said in the present timeline that simply did not compute with what I was witnessing in the 90s timeline. It didn’t feel like a problem with the actress, it felt like an intentional decision on the writers/directors end. There’s a meaningful contradiction here, begging to be examined critically. I couldn’t wrap my head around it at first, but the more I’ve contemplated potential reasoning, the more I’ve come around to a new interpretation of both Lottie Matthews and the Wilderness metaphor.
Lottie, more than any other character on the show, really struggles to exist within the realm of modernity. We see this from pretty much every survivor of the crash, I think: they survived because they were able to abandon their ties to civilization and shift into a more primal state of existence--not just shift, but flourish in ways they never could back home. But Lottie, and perhaps Nat, struggles the most with reintegration upon being rescued. (At least outwardly.) The Wilderness represents antiquity, which might be a reason the Ancient Greece motifs are so prevalent in the 90s timeline.
When I use the term modernity, I mean it in a very specific sense. Post-industrialized, secular society. While perusing several articles to help clarify my thoughts, I came across this piece: 'Is Modernity our Antiquity?' • Afterall
It’s a beautifully written essay that I suggest reading if you’re at all interested in philosophy. But I’ll pull only the pertinent quotes to underline my points for those who don’t care. The essay offers this definition of modernity:
“We are now, according to Clark, living through modernity's crowning achievement of pure contingency and absolute secularisation: the disenchantment of the world that Max Weber once described is complete. The experience of modern life today is one of administrative regimentation where industrial and virtual machines produce everything that order and configure our daily lives, and they do this according to an enduring and secularised set of protocols (profit, regimentation, order and globalisation - in short, Capital). And yet amidst this total modernisation, every day we feel more insecure, and every day the risk associated with our modern obligations increases exponentially.”The key takeaway is Capital, and that cuts to the heart of the difference between the two Lottie’s as well. One has money, the other does not. In one world, money matters, in the other, money means nothing. People often discuss how the show deals with mental health, but the show also touches on class issues, what with Shauna and Van and Nat in the lower middle to working class range, while Misty and Tai and Jackie and Lottie are in the upper middle to upper class spectrum. If Lottie is ‘fixed’, as her father wishes her to be, with all her spirituality stripped away and replaced by the watered down, neoliberal version, what is left--and how much better is it, really, than the Lottie we saw in the Wilderness?
(I’m also intrigued by the interplay between the public and private sphere in the present timeline. In the past, everything is intimate. In the present, everything is obfuscated by distance and technology.)
“For today it is fundamentally a question of our relationship to these recently past forms, a question of what is to be done as the artistic signs and images of emerging and developing modernity are rapidly becoming historical. It can be quite disconcerting, I think, to recognise just how fast this has happened, to acknowledge that high-modernist forms have become historical ones. By this I mean that we can no longer fully identify with them, as they belong to a different time, to a different knowledge, and finally, of course, to a different ambition. On the other hand, it may be important to recognise that this impression we have that our modern forms are rapidly accruing a sense of 'pastness' is in part the result of our contemporary cult of the past. Bruno Latour wants to argue that this cult of the past - this need to at one and the same time conjure the past, revere it, excise it and destroy it - extends to the very heart of modernism and is in the end what undermines modernism from within, in fact what makes modernism not modern at all.”The contradictory nature of the past, of how the Yellowjackets treat their past, was really pinpointed by the line I bolded in this quote, particularly for Lottie. She fears the past, fears the person she was in the Wilderness, and yet simultaneously reveres and conjures that period by surrounding herself with imagery of the symbol. (Perhaps unconsciously in some instances, like with the beehives?) It’s both a form of exultation and iconoclasm. By turning the symbol into a representation of her cult, Lottie has perverted its original meaning into something palatable, meant to be mass distributed and consumed. It has become a product for sale, to be pinned to the breast of a yuppie in a mid-life crisis, when originally it was a beacon of both tragedy and hope for a desperate, starving, mentally-ill child.
“Following Adorno, we perhaps need to think of the categories of decline (of old forms) less as categories of destruction, but rather as categories of transition. If modernism is indeed now historical, then this surely raises the question of transition as a return to the question of the end of art, the very condition for art that Hegel had already announced in the 1820s. But is this necessary state of transition, knowing and acknowledging that things are changing rapidly and that the promise of yesterday is no longer (nor ever will be) the realisation of today - is this the same thing as assuming an antiquity for our immediate past?”The paradigm shift of categorical decline as opposed to categorical transition really struck me. How the show structures itself with the two timelines is to meld the past and the present so that they echo and reflect each other. Lottie--and Nat (?)--is always in a state of flux, transition, her younger and older versions constantly juxtaposed and interrogated. At times the past feels like the present and the present feels like the past, and this temporal abrogation substantiates the concept of the modern as antiquated and the antiquated as modern.
“In At the Foot of the Flatiron, as with other early films, we are witnessing that particular look (the look at camera) as it begins its inevitable arc of disappearance. Soon it will transform itself into something more self-conscious, more sophisticated. It will become a look no longer at camera, but to camera. It will incorporate a knowledge born of comparison and anticipation ('how will this film of me match and compare to the ideal image of myself, in relationship to all similar images of me and others?'). In short, what we witness in this early film is the subject's self-consciousness before, or actually at the very moment, that that self-consciousness is imbued and invested, via this modern moving-image regime, with a new sense of history. I find this feeling remarkable; because it is truly and radically unknowable, it seems to suggest that it has also failed to become a past object. Failure in this sense is to give that look a real possibility, a second chance that is always never the last. In this sense, I want to argue that far from being part of an antiquity that belongs to us, what we 'find' in the past (in this case the strange look at camera, or more properly the impossible juggling between this look and the desire to hang on to your hat, that is to say, to hang on to history) can sometimes be the unfulfilled dreams of what never came up to be but maybe still might, only differently.”I find this entire paragraph incredible and could probably write another essay entirely on its resonances with Yellowajackets, but for the sake of brevity I want to primarily focus on the part I bolded. This idea of looking at the camera vs looking to the camera is another pivotal distinction between teen and adult Lottie. Both are performances in a way, but one carries with it a level of authenticity while the other carries with it a level of inauthenticity. And the themes of performance and authenticity are incredibly prevalent within season two of Yellowjackets. Whether or not what Lottie experienced in the Wilderness was real doesn’t matter; what she experienced in the Wilderness was the closest she ever felt to touching her authentic self, and attempts to touch that authenticity once more within the acceptable confines of civilization has brought her down the path of a cult leader. At the same time, the cult is a means to re-live the experience in the Wilderness, to provide help and assistance, but, in Lottie's view, done the "right" way.
“As our modernity evolves, so too does our relationship to our immediate past, and our antiquity is transformed and re-invented. In the political sphere, modern religious ideologies that have at their heart some previous perfect from of organization play out what is in fact only a simulacrum of the pre-modern (antiquity). While they are clearly unable to replicate an earlier period, what they can do is imagine that past, and make a wholly modern fiction of it. They act the pre-modern like a huge D.W. Griffiths set, only this time more than a few get hurt. They cannot make the past come back, yet they are stuck in the hopeless and meaningless attempt of trying to do exactly that. Paradoxically, rather than becoming the ancients that they worship and idolise, they seem to have learnt an awful lot from the moderns. In other words, what they are engaged in is a very modern idea and this is what makes it so terrifying.”And this is why Lottie turns manic and unhinged by the end of the season. She has spent the entirety of season two trying to re-contextualize antiquity (the Wilderness) through the lens of modernity (the wellness center). But it can only be doomed to end in failure, can only be doomed to hurt other people, whether they be Travis or Nat or Shauna or Lisa.
An addendum: This is only about the ideas presented in season two, not necessarily their execution. Nor is it intended to assess the morality or ethics of the past and present timelines, rather compare and contrast them, and the resonances and metaphors both are attempting to evoke.
2023.06.03 18:15 Moog_Latan (Part 9) Spoiler Theory Regarding A Certain Mangaka
So I just had an idea regarding Rohan from Part 9 that would not only be shocking, but make the entire JoJo's universe more cohesive, directly connect Part 8 to Part 9, and also explain the reason why Rohan was even written into Part 9 at all.
There are three parts to this theory. The first:
Many have called Rohan a self insert for Araki based on the two's myriad of similar traits. If Part 9 Rohan is a self insert for Araki, and Araki is the kind of person to write self inserts into his manga, it makes sense that Part 9 Rohan is also the kind of person to write self inserts into his manga. In other words, Araki writes Rohan into JJBA as a self insert, Rohan writes Rohan into JJBA as a self insert. Hence why Rohan appears in Part 4.
\"Not a self insert guys\"
Araki's favourite JoJo part is likely Part 4, considering for a while his two favourite characters were Josuke and Kira, it's the part where Araki puts his self insert into, and Part 4 is the most explicitly referenced part of the original universe in the new universe. So continuing with the self insert train, Part 9 Rohan's favourite JJBA part is likely also Part 4, hence why it's Part 4 that Part 9 Rohan also writes his self insert into.
It's worth noting that in real life, JoJo's Bizarre Adventure Parts 1-6 and 7-9 are actually two separate series. That's why parts on from 7 don't have "JoJo's Bizarre Adventure" in the title, it's not the same ip. This makes the theory a lot more credible as there's already the real life separation between 1-6 and 7-9, so why not extend that separation into the world of Parts 7-9 also?
But this raises a big question.
Doesn't it seem like a coincidence that there are so many similarities between Part 9 Rohan's fictional JJBA manga, and the actual world of Parts 7-9?
For instance, why would Part 9 Rohan know so much/care about real life 1890s guy Johnny Joestar to then base the fictional character of Johnathan Joestar off him? How and why does he know so much information about the real life Joestar history?"
Not directly stated to be using it for inspiration (but you know that's what he's doing)
Secondly, Jousuke and Rohan are both rich Japanese men from Morioh as well as powerful stand users. As two rich Japanese men from Morioh they're likely to occupy the same spaces. They're both powerful stand users which in JoJo is shown to bring people together like gravity. It's almost an inevitability that they at least met in the 12 years between Parts 8 and 9.
Both rich and Japanese
"But how would Rohan know so much about the Joestar history from before Jousuke's birth if all his information is just from Jousuke's mind?"
Jousuke was shown in Part 8 to be super interested in researching his family's past. We know from the events of Part 8 alone that Jousuke learned about the Joestar family tree reaching back to George Joestar, as well as the record of the Steel Ball run race and Johnny being 4th in it. That's not including any more research Jousuke may have done offscreen, and that's also not including any more research Rohan might have done based off the information he learned from Jousuke.
Jousuke doing research on his family history - who's to say that curiosity didn't stick around after Jojolion?
Ever wonder why the parallels between Parts 4 and 8 are so much closer than Parts 1-3 and 7? It's because Rohan has way more information on the events of Part 8 to use as inspiration for Part 4 due to literally reading Jousuke's life story, than he does for the events of Part 7 which he can only piece together from historical documents, and as a result he's unable to be as historically accurate when writing Parts 1-3.
And this also explains little things like both universes having the earliest recorded Joestars as George, father of John__. Rohan only goes up to George, father of Johnathan when writing Part 1 because the real life Joestar family tree he saw in Jousuke's memory only goes up to George, father of Johnny.
https://preview.redd.it/kluvg5rr1t3b1.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=ba402696797018c20545d4b5cbe4c2bf94c6d8b2
I should probably bring up at this point the fact that one of Rohan's key character traits in Part 4 is that one should always use reality to base their manga off. This explains why Part 9 Rohan would want to stick so closely to real life Joestar history, because he also believes in sticking to reality.
https://preview.redd.it/401eowj76t3b1.png?width=300&format=png&auto=webp&s=f6c1256672c798591ea509bff0fe4a408d35b253
If this is all true then this would mean that the Parts 1-6 we've all read were actually just one of Rohan's manga series within the universe of Parts 7-9. Meaning that technically all parts do take place in the same universe, which would be a perfect touch to add for what is likely Araki's final part of JJBA.
But in addition to that, the only reason huge elements in the original series even existed such as Johnathan Joestar, the Zeppelis, the Joestar birthmark, Erina Pendleton, Joseph Joestar, stone people, Suzy Q, Avdol, Dio Brando and The World, Josuke Higashikata, Yoshikage Kira and Killer Queen, Morioh, Hirose, Yukako and Love Deluxe, Holy Kujo, Rohan and Heaven's Door, hell, stands in general, was because it was all stuff that was in Jousuke's brain and that Part 9 Rohan thought looked cool enough to write about.
Here's the interesting part though. There are already a bunch of things in Part 9 that have also been paralleled in the original series written by Rohan, that by the nature of them being in Part 9 can't have all come from just Jousuke's mind.
A JoJo that was very likely a descendant of Dio, that's 15 years old and involved in the organised crime world. All traits of Jodio paralleled in Giorno. This means that Part 9 Rohan as of the most recent Chapter 4 of Jojolands can't have written Part 5 (and by extension 6) yet. This means that at some point Rohan will also have to use Heaven's Door to get Jodio's story.
But wait, there's more.
Jodio and Josuke were both created out of Joseph having an affair. If this aspect of Jodio inspired this aspect of Part 4 Josuke, that means Part 4 can't have been written yet either.
https://preview.redd.it/4mbtj8bqut3b1.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=2d903fa129d7234fe724dda6cb29716252e4220c
However, a bunch of the parallels to the Joestars' real history that Rohan wrote into Parts 1-4 must have come from Jousuke.
So here are the two options:
2) Rohan, just like Araki, wrote Parts 1-6 in one go, and simply hasn't written JJBA by the start of Part 9.
This seems more likely as it means that, assuming by the end of Part 9 there have been enough parallels to Parts 5 and 6, Rohan, having gotten all the inspiration he needs from both Jousuke and Jodio, can begin writing JJBA once Part 9 is just about over, and the final twist of the series can be that 1-6 was a manga written by Rohan and therefore all in the same universe. Which would make for a good ending to the series.
That's where the main theory ends, and if you want, you can stop reading here. However, I think there's one more twist that Araki is intending to pull with Rohan that, if true, would be the cherry on top:
Both are also coloured by default with dark green and black hair.
2011-2023
Tsurugi was a boy who the Higashikatas dressed as a girl as part of a superstition to wade off the curse. Now that the curse has gone, he doesn't have to do that anymore.
We did see him still dressed as a girl in Jojolion Chapter 110, which took place on Tsurugi's 11th birthday about a week after the curse was broken, and thus the requirement for him to dress as a girl.
Chapter 110
However it's only a week after, it's what Tsurugi's been used to his whole life so he would likely take some time to change, and he's had 12 years between then and Part 9 to change as well, so I don't think it's a stretch to say he simply started dressing as a boy soon after.
"But how could Tsurugi and Rohan be the same if they have different stands?"
It's true that Tsurugi's stand for most of Part 8 was Paper Moon King - a stand revolving around the paper art of Origami.
However, in Chapter 83, the narrator talks of how a stand is a reflection of one's heart, and if one's heart changes, one's stand will as well, and that once this process starts it's impossible to stop.
https://preview.redd.it/3jbyrvcwpt3b1.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=8f9ccae0b9b261fa850c8a12955776e53392381c
(Citing age as the reason a stand could change)
This speech is given over Tsurugi sneaking around as the only character in the scene, and even looking directly at the audience. This framing heavily implies that Tsurugi is the one who's heart, and therefore stand, will inevitably change.
So then what would an evolution of Paper Moon King look like?
Well, Tsurugi in Part 8 was a child. Araki said that he wanted Tsurugi's stand to be childish. In Japan, 10 is considered the last year of one being a child and 11 the first of them being a teenager. Tsurugi started to lose control of his stand, as well as the narrator suggesting that his stand would evolve, in the last week or so of him being 10 years old - the last week or so of him being a child.
Paper Moon King involved a manipulation of the (often considered childish) paper art of Origami. What if, then, Paper Moon King evolved into an ability that manipulated a "more adult" paper art - manga?
Or in other words, what if Paper Moon King evolved into Heaven's Door, reflecting its user evolving into more of an adult?
Hell, the narrator even likens the transformation of (assumedly) Tsurugi's stand to "lava boiling from a volcano".
https://preview.redd.it/tsw47fl7vt3b1.png?width=300&format=png&auto=webp&s=9abb088db214e78bf9a2f0fefd2c7d704d992f60
And who do we know travelled all the way to Hawaii to study the boiling lava from volcanoes?
In addition to that, throughout Part 8 Tsurugi displays a fondness for Hirose Yasuho and a distrust for Jousuke, much like how Rohan in Part 4 had a fondness for Hirose Koichi and a distrust for Josuke.
https://preview.redd.it/rr6pya8gst3b1.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=61ef86a45c5e26c2c81a6450c742e12191407a57
In Part 3, you have the characters of Oingo and Boingo. Two siblings - one child, one adult. The child has a stand revolving around manga, just like Heaven's Door, and the adult has a stand that can change one's appearance, just like Paper Moon King.
https://preview.redd.it/ep7ez680tt3b1.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=b46e41ce98880a4e86fbadf191302fba1d9231ff
Could these characters in Part 3 have been inspired by Rohan's own story of, inversely, having a stand that changes appearances as a child, and a stand that revolves around manga as an adult?
Finally, Tsurugi being Rohan lends way more credence to Rohan using Heaven's Door on Jousuke for inspiration.
Why would Rohan be around Jousuke? They lived in the same house.
Why would Rohan expect Jousuke to have a bunch of knowledge he wanted to use for his manga? He knows first hand what Jousuke went through.
How would Rohan get all the extra research about the Joestar bloodline? From Norisuke's office that gathered all that research in the first place.
Rohan is a rich Japanese man from Morioh? The Higashikatas were our only other example of a rich Japanese family from Morioh.
As for the name difference? Well, you can change your name. Y'know, the thing that every eldest son of the Higashikata family had been doing from Norisuke I to Joubin? Tsurugi was actually the first in 100+ years not to have to do it. Well, what if he actually did?
Hell, he doesn't even have to have legally changed his name. Rohan Kishibe could just be his pen name. Just like how Hirohiko Araki, the guy that Rohan is a parallel to, also used a different pen name - Toshiyuko Araki - when he started out as a mangaka.
Guys, it's over.
submitted by Moog_Latan to StardustCrusaders [link] [comments]
There are three parts to this theory. The first:
1. JoJo's Bizarre Adventure Parts 1-6 is actually a manga within the universe of Parts 7-9 written by Part 9's Rohan.
In real life, the highly successful mangaka Hirohiko Araki wrote the manga JoJo's Bizarre Adventure. In Part 9, the highly successful mangaka Kishibe Rohan wrote... manga. To complete the parallel, wouldn't it make sense if Rohan also wrote the manga JoJo's Bizarre Adventure?Many have called Rohan a self insert for Araki based on the two's myriad of similar traits. If Part 9 Rohan is a self insert for Araki, and Araki is the kind of person to write self inserts into his manga, it makes sense that Part 9 Rohan is also the kind of person to write self inserts into his manga. In other words, Araki writes Rohan into JJBA as a self insert, Rohan writes Rohan into JJBA as a self insert. Hence why Rohan appears in Part 4.
\"Not a self insert guys\"
Araki's favourite JoJo part is likely Part 4, considering for a while his two favourite characters were Josuke and Kira, it's the part where Araki puts his self insert into, and Part 4 is the most explicitly referenced part of the original universe in the new universe. So continuing with the self insert train, Part 9 Rohan's favourite JJBA part is likely also Part 4, hence why it's Part 4 that Part 9 Rohan also writes his self insert into.
It's worth noting that in real life, JoJo's Bizarre Adventure Parts 1-6 and 7-9 are actually two separate series. That's why parts on from 7 don't have "JoJo's Bizarre Adventure" in the title, it's not the same ip. This makes the theory a lot more credible as there's already the real life separation between 1-6 and 7-9, so why not extend that separation into the world of Parts 7-9 also?
But this raises a big question.
Doesn't it seem like a coincidence that there are so many similarities between Part 9 Rohan's fictional JJBA manga, and the actual world of Parts 7-9?
For instance, why would Part 9 Rohan know so much/care about real life 1890s guy Johnny Joestar to then base the fictional character of Johnathan Joestar off him? How and why does he know so much information about the real life Joestar history?"
2. The reason there are so many similarities between Parts 1-6 and Parts 7-9 is because Rohan got inspiration for Parts 1-6 by looking into Jousuke's past.
First the obvious. Part 9 Rohan has Heaven's Door which works identically to how it does in Part 4 and which he first uses in Part 9 to look into someone's past to use for inspiration for his manga. So this character trait of Part 4 Rohan's is very much alive in Part 9's, and Araki wants to establish that early.Not directly stated to be using it for inspiration (but you know that's what he's doing)
Secondly, Jousuke and Rohan are both rich Japanese men from Morioh as well as powerful stand users. As two rich Japanese men from Morioh they're likely to occupy the same spaces. They're both powerful stand users which in JoJo is shown to bring people together like gravity. It's almost an inevitability that they at least met in the 12 years between Parts 8 and 9.
Both rich and Japanese
"But how would Rohan know so much about the Joestar history from before Jousuke's birth if all his information is just from Jousuke's mind?"
Jousuke was shown in Part 8 to be super interested in researching his family's past. We know from the events of Part 8 alone that Jousuke learned about the Joestar family tree reaching back to George Joestar, as well as the record of the Steel Ball run race and Johnny being 4th in it. That's not including any more research Jousuke may have done offscreen, and that's also not including any more research Rohan might have done based off the information he learned from Jousuke.
Jousuke doing research on his family history - who's to say that curiosity didn't stick around after Jojolion?
Ever wonder why the parallels between Parts 4 and 8 are so much closer than Parts 1-3 and 7? It's because Rohan has way more information on the events of Part 8 to use as inspiration for Part 4 due to literally reading Jousuke's life story, than he does for the events of Part 7 which he can only piece together from historical documents, and as a result he's unable to be as historically accurate when writing Parts 1-3.
And this also explains little things like both universes having the earliest recorded Joestars as George, father of John__. Rohan only goes up to George, father of Johnathan when writing Part 1 because the real life Joestar family tree he saw in Jousuke's memory only goes up to George, father of Johnny.
https://preview.redd.it/kluvg5rr1t3b1.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=ba402696797018c20545d4b5cbe4c2bf94c6d8b2
I should probably bring up at this point the fact that one of Rohan's key character traits in Part 4 is that one should always use reality to base their manga off. This explains why Part 9 Rohan would want to stick so closely to real life Joestar history, because he also believes in sticking to reality.
https://preview.redd.it/401eowj76t3b1.png?width=300&format=png&auto=webp&s=f6c1256672c798591ea509bff0fe4a408d35b253
If this is all true then this would mean that the Parts 1-6 we've all read were actually just one of Rohan's manga series within the universe of Parts 7-9. Meaning that technically all parts do take place in the same universe, which would be a perfect touch to add for what is likely Araki's final part of JJBA.
But in addition to that, the only reason huge elements in the original series even existed such as Johnathan Joestar, the Zeppelis, the Joestar birthmark, Erina Pendleton, Joseph Joestar, stone people, Suzy Q, Avdol, Dio Brando and The World, Josuke Higashikata, Yoshikage Kira and Killer Queen, Morioh, Hirose, Yukako and Love Deluxe, Holy Kujo, Rohan and Heaven's Door, hell, stands in general, was because it was all stuff that was in Jousuke's brain and that Part 9 Rohan thought looked cool enough to write about.
Here's the interesting part though. There are already a bunch of things in Part 9 that have also been paralleled in the original series written by Rohan, that by the nature of them being in Part 9 can't have all come from just Jousuke's mind.
A JoJo that was very likely a descendant of Dio, that's 15 years old and involved in the organised crime world. All traits of Jodio paralleled in Giorno. This means that Part 9 Rohan as of the most recent Chapter 4 of Jojolands can't have written Part 5 (and by extension 6) yet. This means that at some point Rohan will also have to use Heaven's Door to get Jodio's story.
But wait, there's more.
Jodio and Josuke were both created out of Joseph having an affair. If this aspect of Jodio inspired this aspect of Part 4 Josuke, that means Part 4 can't have been written yet either.
https://preview.redd.it/4mbtj8bqut3b1.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=2d903fa129d7234fe724dda6cb29716252e4220c
However, a bunch of the parallels to the Joestars' real history that Rohan wrote into Parts 1-4 must have come from Jousuke.
So here are the two options:
- Rohan learned a bunch of shit about the Joestars from Jousuke which caused him to write Parts 1-3, stopped the series before Part 4 despite having like 90% of the info he would want for that part, started another manga in Pink Dark Boy, then returned years later to write Parts 4-6.
2) Rohan, just like Araki, wrote Parts 1-6 in one go, and simply hasn't written JJBA by the start of Part 9.
This seems more likely as it means that, assuming by the end of Part 9 there have been enough parallels to Parts 5 and 6, Rohan, having gotten all the inspiration he needs from both Jousuke and Jodio, can begin writing JJBA once Part 9 is just about over, and the final twist of the series can be that 1-6 was a manga written by Rohan and therefore all in the same universe. Which would make for a good ending to the series.
That's where the main theory ends, and if you want, you can stop reading here. However, I think there's one more twist that Araki is intending to pull with Rohan that, if true, would be the cherry on top:
3. Part 9 Rohan is Higashikata Tsurugi.
Tsurugi in 2011 was 11 years old. Part 9 Rohan in 2023 looks to be in his 20s, so the age matches up.Both are also coloured by default with dark green and black hair.
2011-2023
Tsurugi was a boy who the Higashikatas dressed as a girl as part of a superstition to wade off the curse. Now that the curse has gone, he doesn't have to do that anymore.
We did see him still dressed as a girl in Jojolion Chapter 110, which took place on Tsurugi's 11th birthday about a week after the curse was broken, and thus the requirement for him to dress as a girl.
Chapter 110
However it's only a week after, it's what Tsurugi's been used to his whole life so he would likely take some time to change, and he's had 12 years between then and Part 9 to change as well, so I don't think it's a stretch to say he simply started dressing as a boy soon after.
"But how could Tsurugi and Rohan be the same if they have different stands?"
It's true that Tsurugi's stand for most of Part 8 was Paper Moon King - a stand revolving around the paper art of Origami.
However, in Chapter 83, the narrator talks of how a stand is a reflection of one's heart, and if one's heart changes, one's stand will as well, and that once this process starts it's impossible to stop.
https://preview.redd.it/3jbyrvcwpt3b1.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=8f9ccae0b9b261fa850c8a12955776e53392381c
(Citing age as the reason a stand could change)
This speech is given over Tsurugi sneaking around as the only character in the scene, and even looking directly at the audience. This framing heavily implies that Tsurugi is the one who's heart, and therefore stand, will inevitably change.
So then what would an evolution of Paper Moon King look like?
Well, Tsurugi in Part 8 was a child. Araki said that he wanted Tsurugi's stand to be childish. In Japan, 10 is considered the last year of one being a child and 11 the first of them being a teenager. Tsurugi started to lose control of his stand, as well as the narrator suggesting that his stand would evolve, in the last week or so of him being 10 years old - the last week or so of him being a child.
Paper Moon King involved a manipulation of the (often considered childish) paper art of Origami. What if, then, Paper Moon King evolved into an ability that manipulated a "more adult" paper art - manga?
Or in other words, what if Paper Moon King evolved into Heaven's Door, reflecting its user evolving into more of an adult?
Hell, the narrator even likens the transformation of (assumedly) Tsurugi's stand to "lava boiling from a volcano".
https://preview.redd.it/tsw47fl7vt3b1.png?width=300&format=png&auto=webp&s=9abb088db214e78bf9a2f0fefd2c7d704d992f60
And who do we know travelled all the way to Hawaii to study the boiling lava from volcanoes?
In addition to that, throughout Part 8 Tsurugi displays a fondness for Hirose Yasuho and a distrust for Jousuke, much like how Rohan in Part 4 had a fondness for Hirose Koichi and a distrust for Josuke.
https://preview.redd.it/rr6pya8gst3b1.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=61ef86a45c5e26c2c81a6450c742e12191407a57
In Part 3, you have the characters of Oingo and Boingo. Two siblings - one child, one adult. The child has a stand revolving around manga, just like Heaven's Door, and the adult has a stand that can change one's appearance, just like Paper Moon King.
https://preview.redd.it/ep7ez680tt3b1.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=b46e41ce98880a4e86fbadf191302fba1d9231ff
Could these characters in Part 3 have been inspired by Rohan's own story of, inversely, having a stand that changes appearances as a child, and a stand that revolves around manga as an adult?
Finally, Tsurugi being Rohan lends way more credence to Rohan using Heaven's Door on Jousuke for inspiration.
Why would Rohan be around Jousuke? They lived in the same house.
Why would Rohan expect Jousuke to have a bunch of knowledge he wanted to use for his manga? He knows first hand what Jousuke went through.
How would Rohan get all the extra research about the Joestar bloodline? From Norisuke's office that gathered all that research in the first place.
Rohan is a rich Japanese man from Morioh? The Higashikatas were our only other example of a rich Japanese family from Morioh.
As for the name difference? Well, you can change your name. Y'know, the thing that every eldest son of the Higashikata family had been doing from Norisuke I to Joubin? Tsurugi was actually the first in 100+ years not to have to do it. Well, what if he actually did?
Hell, he doesn't even have to have legally changed his name. Rohan Kishibe could just be his pen name. Just like how Hirohiko Araki, the guy that Rohan is a parallel to, also used a different pen name - Toshiyuko Araki - when he started out as a mangaka.
Guys, it's over.
2023.06.03 17:50 TheScribe_1 [The Book of the Chosen] - Chapter Twelve - The Blacksmith's Boy (Part Three)
Fourth and final part at the same time tomorrow.
Series Page - Read 10 weeks ahead on Patreon - Read the story so far on Royal Road
*
Chapter Twelve - The Blacksmith's Boy (Part Three)
Clouds. Black, moving, twisting like rope. His head ached. His blood was hot as flame. Fire flashed in the clouds, and the old stormtower gleamed. The Old Man stared back at him from the gloom, eyes carving at his skin. You could have warned me. He taunted him. Smoke bled around his shoulders, and his skin melted away. Cal tried to look away, but it was too late. The fire was on him, and the sky filled his eyes with black water, smothering his breath.
*
He gasped, pain searing down his spine, and choked on his own breath, spluttering.
‘Get him up.’
‘I’ve got him.’
Lokk’s voice. Cal felt a hand curling underneath one of his arms, lifting his aching jaw off the floorboards. Pain shot down his back again, and he cried out, eyes spinning. Then there was another hand beneath him, and he was lifted groaning away from the floor. They lowered him carefully into a chair, and he fell against it, skin stinging, panting through gritted teeth.
‘What happened to him?’
‘Had a wolf at ‘im, by the looks of it!’
‘Don’t be a fool! No wolves in these woods.’
‘Believe in magic, but not in wolves?’
Cal groaned again.
‘Shut it, all of you!’
Cal blinked again, and the Innkeep’s rosy cheeks coalesced into the air before his eyes, looking down at him worriedly. Lokk was at his shoulder, wide-eyed, his mop of lank hair hanging loosely over his forehead. Someone had put the door to, and it was suddenly very quiet. Cal took a breath.
‘What happened, boy?’ The Innkeep asked him. Beyond his shoul-ders, Cal could see the faces of a half-dozen patrons, blinking back at him with wide eyes. All except Old Godry, who looked mildly irritated. Outside, the storm wailed helplessly against the thatching, and thunder rumbled against the hills, more distant, now. Cal held his breath, craning his ears. But the footsteps were gone. He swallowed.
‘There were…’ He hesitated, glancing towards the door. ‘I… fell.’
‘Down half the Teeth by the looks of it!’ Lokk pointed at his arms. ‘What were you doing out in this?’
Cal blinked, looking down. His arms were crisscrossed with dozens of bloody cuts, and his shirt was hanging off him in strings. He frowned, shrugging, and then winced as fire raced over his skin, and fell back against the chair, gasping.
‘Thought… Thought I had time to get back.’
‘Damned fool.’ Carel told him, appearing beside her father. She had a pail of steaming water under one arm, and a bundle of rags in the oth-er. ‘Got to clean those before they rot.’
‘I’m fi-’
‘That’s enough talking.’ The Innkeep told him. ‘Or I’ll want coin for the cloth.’
Cal thought better of arguing.
‘Saw a fair few mugs go over.’ The Innkeep turned towards the rest of the room, smiling reassuringly. ‘I’ll fetch a new barrel. This one’s on the house.’
A few grumbles of approval from the assembled regulars. They were all watching him. He could feel their eyes on him, prying, poking. Sen-sible boys know better than to go wandering in a storm. They’d always thought the Blacksmith’s stray was cracked. Same as his master. Godry seemed to have let his irritation go at the promise of free ale, but Cal spotted the butcher’s brute of a son, Petr, sneering back at him over the rim of his mug. He lowered his eyes. They thought him mad. Maybe they were right. Behind his eyes, the shadows were still chasing him through endless trees, clawing at his heels. But the door stayed closed, and there was no sound beyond it but the storm. Maybe he was losing his mind.
‘Quite the show, that was.’ Lokk grinned as his father went off to find the barrel. Carel rolled her eyes, pulling up another chair and set-ting about dampening the cloth. ‘Barely seen you in weeks, then you show up all bloody an’ panting like a wolf that’s got in with the chick-ens? You always knew how to make an entrance.’
Cal grunted. He didn’t feel like explaining himself. Wasn’t sure he could, even if he did.
‘Scared off the new folk, too.’ Lokk nodded towards an empty table in the far corner of the room, scattered with discarded mugs.
Cal blinked. ‘What?’
‘Had some of Solen’s new hands in tonight.’ Lokk told him offhand-edly, scratching his chin. ‘Quiet lot. Must have given them quite the fright. Saw themselves out sharpish.’
‘What did… hnngg.’ Cal clamped his teeth together with a groan as Carel pressed one of the rags against his bloody forearm.
‘Stay still.’ She told him, wiping the cloth slowly across his skin. It felt like someone was stripping his flesh with a wood plane. Cal clenched his jaw, forcing himself not to yelp. Lokk lounged idly against the bar beside him, sweeping his loose hair back from his forehead un-tidily.
‘Interrupted Godry, too.’ His friend went on, clearly unperturbed by his suffering. ‘Old goat hates being interrupted.’
Cal grunted again. The little clump of patrons seemed to have lost interest in him, now, turning back to their mugs as the Innkeep moved deftly through the tables, a little cask under his arm. Petr and his father were sitting glowering at no one in particular. Forley and his young wife Priss looked taken aback, and not the least bit shaken, by the un-expected turn of events the evening had taken, but the dour-faced min-ers beside them (whose names Cal did not know) seemed to have paid Cal’s entrance no heed at all. Old Godry was sitting patiently, firelight knotting over his scarred cheeks, waiting for his cue. Soon their mugs were full again, and the foolishness of the Blacksmith’s stray was quite forgotten. The Innkeep set the empty cask down somewhere behind the bar, and went off to find another barrel. Cal gritted his teeth as Carel went on with her work, eyes watering, and watched the villagers blur indifferently by the fire.
‘You weren’t finished, Godry.’ Albin, the butcher began, taking a long swig from his mug. ‘’bout to tell us how the wizard farted out his storm to save the savages.’
Cal saw Forley roll his eyes. ‘You know damned well where we were! Tell us about Arolf!’
Albin scowled, opening his mouth to retort, but Godry regained his composure in time to step in.
‘Aerolf, Forley.’ He corrected patiently.
‘Aerolf, then.’ The young shepherd agreed, rolling his eyes. ‘What happened next?’
‘Well, like I was saying, old King Talor’s already met his end, but them Northmen weren’t done yet. That beast Aerolf most of all.’ Godry began, lowering his voice and eyeing his audience conspiratorially. ‘He had a score to settle, see. This weren’t the kind of man to let a woman run from him, you understand.’
‘Serves him right.’ Albin grumbled. ‘Couldn’t keep her in his bed, even with a sword on her.’
The two miners snorted in agreement, and Petr just kept scowling. Cal flinched as Carel drew her rag over a particularly deep cut. He caught her eye reproachfully, and she smiled slyly.
‘Oops.’
She was very close, he realised, and he could feel the heat of her against his cut-thread skin. Another night, he might even have enjoyed it.
‘So there they was, dead King and all. Could of had the throne for hisself, right then.’ The old miner continued gravely. ‘But he was more animal than man. Mad as a beast, they say, big as a bear, covered head to toe in blood, cut up like an old buck. And this beast had a taste for blood.’
The little circle of villagers leaned a little closer in their seats, eye-ing Godry eagerly. Cal realised he was listening along with them.
‘So off he goes, bloody magic blade in hand.’ Godry held out his hand like a blade, scowling at them over the fire. ‘He finds that place where old King Talor locked up his pretty young daughter. And what’d’you think he does when he finds it?’
‘Kills her.’ Forley whispered.
‘That’s right, boy.’ Godry nodded, dropping his arm. ‘Heard it said he clawed the tower door open with his bare hands. Dragged her out in-to that garden, butchered her right there in the grass, threw her off that big rock of theirs like an old ham. This weren’t a man you run from. If he couldn’t have her, no one could.’
‘How’d they kill him, then?’ Albin asked, frowning.
‘Well, see now. Northmen ain’t the only one with monsters.’ Godry said craftily, raising one patchwork brow. ‘Dekar’s a sharp one. He’d realised what was afoot, by now. Rallied the King’s Men, drove the scum back out of the King’s hall. Weren’t a man amongst them left standing, save the ones in the garden. But for Aerolf and them, he saved his best killer.’
‘The Bloodless.’ Forley murmured.
‘The Bloodless.’ Godry agreed. ‘Biggest woman you’ve ever seen. Big as a wagon, skin like blue snow. They say there’s nought but ice in them veins, and if you cut her, she don’t bleed.’
‘And I’ve got rocks for balls.’ Albin snorted.
‘Might as well, for all the good they do you.’ Godry snapped back at him. ‘But the Bloodless finds the traitor. Right there in that garden, all covered in the Princess’s blood. Cuts Aerolf down, throws him from the walls after her, him and his magic sword. Almost killed that Stonesplitter dog, too, whilst she were at it. Weren’t no easy thing though; gets her head cut open like a peach for its trouble. Should’ve died, right there. Would’ve, if not for those… other types Dekar had took up with.’
‘‘Least the traitor was dead.’
‘Aye, that he was. That Heartspire’s taller than a mountain. Say there weren’t nothing left of him but mulch, once he got to the bottom. Him and the princess both.’
‘Makers have mercy.’ Forley murmured, making the sign of the Nine over his breast. Even Albin took another mouthful of ale.
‘Weren’t no mercy. A beast don’t deserve none.’ Godry said sober-ly, following Forley and drawing a circle over his chest. ‘If he couldn’t ‘ave her, no one could.’
Cal barely heard them. He felt drained, as though the cuts had bled the weight from his bones. He floated just above his chair in a haze, and the roomed blurred and swayed as if through shallow water. Carel went about her work quietly, carefully, and the pain of it washed over him in raw waves, until the pail of water at her feet was stained an ugly pink.
‘Dekar had a plan though!’ Forley whispered excitedly, his rever-ence forgotten. ‘Tell ‘em, Godry!’
‘That he did, Forley.’ Godry smiled, his scarred face contorting gro-tesquely. ‘See, that Dekar’s sharp as a carving knife. Took up Taylor’s magic sword, led the King’s Men himself. But that weren’t all. Had some of his men kept back, from down West. Big men. Hard men. Came on the Northmen camp in the dead of night. Surrounded ‘em.’
‘Weren’t just any men, I hears it.’ Albin grumbled.
‘Here we go!’ Forley snorted.
‘Said it yourself, Godry. Dekar took up with them religious types.’ Albin shot back, frowning indignantly. ‘Everyone knows it.’
‘Religious? Masks don’t keep the Makers.’ Forley spat. ‘Ain’t noth-ing but bandits dressed up like monks.’
Cal blinked.
‘Brothers ain’t got no Gods save the Darkness.’ Priss murmured qui-etly. ‘You say Nine, I say eight.’
‘All the same.’ Albin was saying, folding his arms over his mug. ‘Brothers are useful, and good old Dekar didn’t sniff at them like you do.’
‘That’s enough, Alb.’ Godry interrupted. ‘He’s still our King, even all the way out here.’
Cal opened his mouth, straightening in his seat, but Carel pushed him back down again tutting.
‘Sit still.’
‘But-’
‘Hardly our King anymore, anyways.’ Albin spat. ‘Not like it used to be. Valia’s for the lowlanders.’
‘You sounds like a Northman.’ Forley scowled.
‘Or one of the Elahi.’ Priss added. Albin bristled, and Godry jumped in just in time.
‘Doesn’t matter. All Dekar’s hard men never got to the Northmen camp.’ The grizzled old smelter went on. ‘Seems old Isandur weren’t done yet.
Cal gritted his teeth. His head ached, and his mouth tasted like smoke.
Albin spat at his feet, sneering. ‘Isandur my arse.’
‘Let him be, Alb.’ Forley told him.
There was a moment of uncomfortable silence as the butcher and his son fixed Forley with their most angry of looks. Then Godry cleared his throat noisily, and Petr shoved himself to his feet and stalked off to-wards the bar, snatching up their empty mugs as he went.
‘But Isandur is a crafty one, and no mistake. Showed up just in time, as always. What he wanted from it, no man can say. Them Chosen are scheming sorts, what ones is left. Us mortals couldn’t guess what they’s thinkin’.’ He paused, nodding knowingly. ‘Storm-tamers, they call ‘em. He spoke the words, and the sky opened. Biggest storm you’ve ever seen. Caught Dekar’s men as they came. Scattered ‘em like wheat in a gale.’
Petr aimed a crooked smile at Carel as he passed, and she lowered her eyes. Cal barely noticed. He no longer heard Godry. The room around him seemed very far away. Was he awake? Or was he dream-ing?
‘Northerners took the chance. Fled faster than the wind what chased them. Them that were still on the rock, them what murdered and killed our King?’ Godry went on, shaking his head sadly. ‘Them he called the wind itself for, and carried them away before Dekar could get at them. Aerolf’s brother, among them. King of the North, he goes by now. Couple of other Northmen, too. Stonesplitter cut almost in half by the Bloodless’ blade.’
Albin spat on the floor, and the miners scowled. No right-minded Valian liked this part, magic or not. Cal ground his teeth.
‘That Chosen bastard let the King get his throat slit, then shows up to save his killers.’ Albin cursed.
‘Makers know why. Not been seen since.’ Godry agreed. ‘Back they went, anyway, back to the rest of the savages as they fled like dogs. Storm was so heavy, river banks burst behind them, flooded half the valley.’
Cal’s heart was pounding in his ears, and his skull was ringing. Out-side, the wind whined over the thatching, howling at the broken clouds.
‘Don’t matter how many men Dekar had. Or how many Brothers. Ain’t no one swimming in mail.’
Cal forced his eyes shut. Black Ones. A storm. Falling.
‘Cal?’
He opened his eyes, blinking into the firelight, and found Carel look-ing down at him worriedly.
‘Does it hurt?’ She was asking softly.
‘What… no, I’m fine.’ He told her, blinking again. ‘I need to…’
‘Stay here.’ She told him, lifting up the bloody pail. ‘I need more cloth.’
She turned on her heel and disappeared. Cal’s head spun.
‘… already scared off the new folk with all these tall stories.’ Albin was saying. ‘Storm’s just a storm. Forge boy knows.’
Cal blinked, lurching unsteadily to his feet. Asking questions, the Innkeep had said. His vision blurred unsteadily, and the room stared back at him, wobbling like a top.
‘Cal, you need to sit down.’ Lokk told him, putting a hand on his shoulder.
Cal blinked. His eyes stopped spinning, and the ache in his head had vanished. The wind had moved on overhead, and the air was thick with smoke and heat. The little group of patrons were eyeing him curiously. All save the butcher.
‘Listen to him boy, before you hurt yourself.’ Albin sneered back at him.
‘Come on, Cal. Ignore him.’ Lokk murmured in his ear.
Cal swallowed, meeting the swarthy butcher’s eye for a moment. Then he let himself be steered backward, slumping into his seat like an empty sack.
‘Must have lost more blood than I thought.’ Lokk told him, pulling up a chair beside him and tutting. ‘Want to pick a fight with Albin as well as that storm?’
‘What?’ Cal mumbled, blinking. The butcher had gone back to his drink, and the other villagers had gone with him, grumbling amongst themselves about the practicalities of storm-tamers and treacherous, magical old men. He took a breath. ‘I wasn’t. I-’
‘Sure looked like you were. You know Alb. Just his way. Didn’t mean anything by it.’
‘Lokk, when did the new folk leave?’
‘What? Oh… I told you. Right after you turned up. Spooked ‘em good, you did, all bloody like a fresh ham…’
‘Where did they go?’
‘How should I know? Had my hands full peeling you off the floor. Why d’you care, anyway?’
‘Lokk, I need to…’
‘Oh, no you don’t! You aren’t going anywhere. Need to rest.’ His friend told him, pinning him to his chair by his shoulders. ‘Look like you fell down half the Teeth face first.’
‘I…’ Cal began, lowering his voice. His head was clearing, and the room was no longer spinning like a leaf. Beside the fire, the other pa-trons were still bickering emptily. The storm had passed, and the ache of it was clearing from his battered skull. ‘I didn’t just fall. Something was chasing me.’
‘What are you talking about? You crack your head, too?’
‘Lokk, listen. There were…’
‘Let go!’
They both looked up at the sudden commotion from beside the bar. Carel had just made it out from behind it with a fresh pail of steaming water before Petr had cornered her, bulky shoulders blocking the way forward like a stubborn bullock. He had one meaty hand curled around Carel’s wrist, and she had her eyes fixed on the floor. Cal was on his feet before Lokk could say anything.
‘Let go of her.’
The big youth let go of Carel’s wrist, and the pail fell abruptly back to her side, spilling steaming water across the floor. She looked at it distantly, frowning.
‘Or what, you little shit?’ The butcher’s son grumbled throatily, turning slowly around to facing Cal, glaring down at him with rheumy-eyes. His words had the imprecise edge of drink to them, and his breath smelled of sour ale. ‘Gonna throw yourself down a fucking hill at me?’
‘Just leave her be, Petr.’ Lokk added from Cal’s shoulder.
‘Mind your own business.’ The big youth snorted, still glaring at Cal darkly. ‘Sit down before you hurt yourself, stray.’
He began to turn back to Carel. Lokk put a hand on Cal’s shoulder, and Cal ignored him.
‘Leave her be.’ He said again.
‘Or what?’ Petr snarled back, lurching around again, wiping spittle from the corner of his mouth. ‘Going to bleed on me?’
‘It’s fine, Cal. No harm done.’ Carel said quietly from beside the bar, eyes still on the ground. ‘Sit down, let me finish with your cuts.’
‘You heard her. Be a good little foundling and sit down like she says.’
Cal swallowed. Petr was nearly a head taller than he was, and his arms were thick, corded with miner’s work. But there would be no avoiding it now, and he didn’t have the patience to let it be, that night. The big youth was drunk, and spoiling for a fight. Cal glanced back over his shoulder, but the other patrons were bickering loudly beside the fire, oblivious, or indifferent, or both. The Innkeep was still in the back somewhere, tapping a new barrel. Strike first. Strike hard. Cal shifted his feet slightly, readying himself. His head had cleared, and his pain was far away. The moment of calm was on him. A blink in time. The room faded away, vibrating with stillness. There was only his breath. In, and out. He waited.
‘Nothing to say? Suppose a dead whore can’t teach her cunt son any manners.’
Cal moved quickly, uncoiling like a bowstring. He burst forward off his hind leg, bunching his fist towards Petr’s slab of a jaw. The butch-er’s son had no chance to react. How could he? Cal moved with the ease of a seasoned brawler, hard limbs whipping like clubs. Lokk’s arm slipped from his shoulder. He was already halfway across the distance between them before Petr could even blink.
His boot splashed, skidded, slid. The water. Cal blinked, lost bal-ance, and slid wildly into Petr’s chest. His head thudded into the other boy, and he staggered back, confused, dazed. Petr blinked down at him, cogs turning slowly in his ale-slowed mind. Then a broad grin spread across the big youth’s jaw.
‘Should’ve listened, stray.’
submitted by TheScribe_1 to HFY [link] [comments]
Series Page - Read 10 weeks ahead on Patreon - Read the story so far on Royal Road
*
Chapter Twelve - The Blacksmith's Boy (Part Three)
Clouds. Black, moving, twisting like rope. His head ached. His blood was hot as flame. Fire flashed in the clouds, and the old stormtower gleamed. The Old Man stared back at him from the gloom, eyes carving at his skin. You could have warned me. He taunted him. Smoke bled around his shoulders, and his skin melted away. Cal tried to look away, but it was too late. The fire was on him, and the sky filled his eyes with black water, smothering his breath.
*
He gasped, pain searing down his spine, and choked on his own breath, spluttering.
‘Get him up.’
‘I’ve got him.’
Lokk’s voice. Cal felt a hand curling underneath one of his arms, lifting his aching jaw off the floorboards. Pain shot down his back again, and he cried out, eyes spinning. Then there was another hand beneath him, and he was lifted groaning away from the floor. They lowered him carefully into a chair, and he fell against it, skin stinging, panting through gritted teeth.
‘What happened to him?’
‘Had a wolf at ‘im, by the looks of it!’
‘Don’t be a fool! No wolves in these woods.’
‘Believe in magic, but not in wolves?’
Cal groaned again.
‘Shut it, all of you!’
Cal blinked again, and the Innkeep’s rosy cheeks coalesced into the air before his eyes, looking down at him worriedly. Lokk was at his shoulder, wide-eyed, his mop of lank hair hanging loosely over his forehead. Someone had put the door to, and it was suddenly very quiet. Cal took a breath.
‘What happened, boy?’ The Innkeep asked him. Beyond his shoul-ders, Cal could see the faces of a half-dozen patrons, blinking back at him with wide eyes. All except Old Godry, who looked mildly irritated. Outside, the storm wailed helplessly against the thatching, and thunder rumbled against the hills, more distant, now. Cal held his breath, craning his ears. But the footsteps were gone. He swallowed.
‘There were…’ He hesitated, glancing towards the door. ‘I… fell.’
‘Down half the Teeth by the looks of it!’ Lokk pointed at his arms. ‘What were you doing out in this?’
Cal blinked, looking down. His arms were crisscrossed with dozens of bloody cuts, and his shirt was hanging off him in strings. He frowned, shrugging, and then winced as fire raced over his skin, and fell back against the chair, gasping.
‘Thought… Thought I had time to get back.’
‘Damned fool.’ Carel told him, appearing beside her father. She had a pail of steaming water under one arm, and a bundle of rags in the oth-er. ‘Got to clean those before they rot.’
‘I’m fi-’
‘That’s enough talking.’ The Innkeep told him. ‘Or I’ll want coin for the cloth.’
Cal thought better of arguing.
‘Saw a fair few mugs go over.’ The Innkeep turned towards the rest of the room, smiling reassuringly. ‘I’ll fetch a new barrel. This one’s on the house.’
A few grumbles of approval from the assembled regulars. They were all watching him. He could feel their eyes on him, prying, poking. Sen-sible boys know better than to go wandering in a storm. They’d always thought the Blacksmith’s stray was cracked. Same as his master. Godry seemed to have let his irritation go at the promise of free ale, but Cal spotted the butcher’s brute of a son, Petr, sneering back at him over the rim of his mug. He lowered his eyes. They thought him mad. Maybe they were right. Behind his eyes, the shadows were still chasing him through endless trees, clawing at his heels. But the door stayed closed, and there was no sound beyond it but the storm. Maybe he was losing his mind.
‘Quite the show, that was.’ Lokk grinned as his father went off to find the barrel. Carel rolled her eyes, pulling up another chair and set-ting about dampening the cloth. ‘Barely seen you in weeks, then you show up all bloody an’ panting like a wolf that’s got in with the chick-ens? You always knew how to make an entrance.’
Cal grunted. He didn’t feel like explaining himself. Wasn’t sure he could, even if he did.
‘Scared off the new folk, too.’ Lokk nodded towards an empty table in the far corner of the room, scattered with discarded mugs.
Cal blinked. ‘What?’
‘Had some of Solen’s new hands in tonight.’ Lokk told him offhand-edly, scratching his chin. ‘Quiet lot. Must have given them quite the fright. Saw themselves out sharpish.’
‘What did… hnngg.’ Cal clamped his teeth together with a groan as Carel pressed one of the rags against his bloody forearm.
‘Stay still.’ She told him, wiping the cloth slowly across his skin. It felt like someone was stripping his flesh with a wood plane. Cal clenched his jaw, forcing himself not to yelp. Lokk lounged idly against the bar beside him, sweeping his loose hair back from his forehead un-tidily.
‘Interrupted Godry, too.’ His friend went on, clearly unperturbed by his suffering. ‘Old goat hates being interrupted.’
Cal grunted again. The little clump of patrons seemed to have lost interest in him, now, turning back to their mugs as the Innkeep moved deftly through the tables, a little cask under his arm. Petr and his father were sitting glowering at no one in particular. Forley and his young wife Priss looked taken aback, and not the least bit shaken, by the un-expected turn of events the evening had taken, but the dour-faced min-ers beside them (whose names Cal did not know) seemed to have paid Cal’s entrance no heed at all. Old Godry was sitting patiently, firelight knotting over his scarred cheeks, waiting for his cue. Soon their mugs were full again, and the foolishness of the Blacksmith’s stray was quite forgotten. The Innkeep set the empty cask down somewhere behind the bar, and went off to find another barrel. Cal gritted his teeth as Carel went on with her work, eyes watering, and watched the villagers blur indifferently by the fire.
‘You weren’t finished, Godry.’ Albin, the butcher began, taking a long swig from his mug. ‘’bout to tell us how the wizard farted out his storm to save the savages.’
Cal saw Forley roll his eyes. ‘You know damned well where we were! Tell us about Arolf!’
Albin scowled, opening his mouth to retort, but Godry regained his composure in time to step in.
‘Aerolf, Forley.’ He corrected patiently.
‘Aerolf, then.’ The young shepherd agreed, rolling his eyes. ‘What happened next?’
‘Well, like I was saying, old King Talor’s already met his end, but them Northmen weren’t done yet. That beast Aerolf most of all.’ Godry began, lowering his voice and eyeing his audience conspiratorially. ‘He had a score to settle, see. This weren’t the kind of man to let a woman run from him, you understand.’
‘Serves him right.’ Albin grumbled. ‘Couldn’t keep her in his bed, even with a sword on her.’
The two miners snorted in agreement, and Petr just kept scowling. Cal flinched as Carel drew her rag over a particularly deep cut. He caught her eye reproachfully, and she smiled slyly.
‘Oops.’
She was very close, he realised, and he could feel the heat of her against his cut-thread skin. Another night, he might even have enjoyed it.
‘So there they was, dead King and all. Could of had the throne for hisself, right then.’ The old miner continued gravely. ‘But he was more animal than man. Mad as a beast, they say, big as a bear, covered head to toe in blood, cut up like an old buck. And this beast had a taste for blood.’
The little circle of villagers leaned a little closer in their seats, eye-ing Godry eagerly. Cal realised he was listening along with them.
‘So off he goes, bloody magic blade in hand.’ Godry held out his hand like a blade, scowling at them over the fire. ‘He finds that place where old King Talor locked up his pretty young daughter. And what’d’you think he does when he finds it?’
‘Kills her.’ Forley whispered.
‘That’s right, boy.’ Godry nodded, dropping his arm. ‘Heard it said he clawed the tower door open with his bare hands. Dragged her out in-to that garden, butchered her right there in the grass, threw her off that big rock of theirs like an old ham. This weren’t a man you run from. If he couldn’t have her, no one could.’
‘How’d they kill him, then?’ Albin asked, frowning.
‘Well, see now. Northmen ain’t the only one with monsters.’ Godry said craftily, raising one patchwork brow. ‘Dekar’s a sharp one. He’d realised what was afoot, by now. Rallied the King’s Men, drove the scum back out of the King’s hall. Weren’t a man amongst them left standing, save the ones in the garden. But for Aerolf and them, he saved his best killer.’
‘The Bloodless.’ Forley murmured.
‘The Bloodless.’ Godry agreed. ‘Biggest woman you’ve ever seen. Big as a wagon, skin like blue snow. They say there’s nought but ice in them veins, and if you cut her, she don’t bleed.’
‘And I’ve got rocks for balls.’ Albin snorted.
‘Might as well, for all the good they do you.’ Godry snapped back at him. ‘But the Bloodless finds the traitor. Right there in that garden, all covered in the Princess’s blood. Cuts Aerolf down, throws him from the walls after her, him and his magic sword. Almost killed that Stonesplitter dog, too, whilst she were at it. Weren’t no easy thing though; gets her head cut open like a peach for its trouble. Should’ve died, right there. Would’ve, if not for those… other types Dekar had took up with.’
‘‘Least the traitor was dead.’
‘Aye, that he was. That Heartspire’s taller than a mountain. Say there weren’t nothing left of him but mulch, once he got to the bottom. Him and the princess both.’
‘Makers have mercy.’ Forley murmured, making the sign of the Nine over his breast. Even Albin took another mouthful of ale.
‘Weren’t no mercy. A beast don’t deserve none.’ Godry said sober-ly, following Forley and drawing a circle over his chest. ‘If he couldn’t ‘ave her, no one could.’
Cal barely heard them. He felt drained, as though the cuts had bled the weight from his bones. He floated just above his chair in a haze, and the roomed blurred and swayed as if through shallow water. Carel went about her work quietly, carefully, and the pain of it washed over him in raw waves, until the pail of water at her feet was stained an ugly pink.
‘Dekar had a plan though!’ Forley whispered excitedly, his rever-ence forgotten. ‘Tell ‘em, Godry!’
‘That he did, Forley.’ Godry smiled, his scarred face contorting gro-tesquely. ‘See, that Dekar’s sharp as a carving knife. Took up Taylor’s magic sword, led the King’s Men himself. But that weren’t all. Had some of his men kept back, from down West. Big men. Hard men. Came on the Northmen camp in the dead of night. Surrounded ‘em.’
‘Weren’t just any men, I hears it.’ Albin grumbled.
‘Here we go!’ Forley snorted.
‘Said it yourself, Godry. Dekar took up with them religious types.’ Albin shot back, frowning indignantly. ‘Everyone knows it.’
‘Religious? Masks don’t keep the Makers.’ Forley spat. ‘Ain’t noth-ing but bandits dressed up like monks.’
Cal blinked.
‘Brothers ain’t got no Gods save the Darkness.’ Priss murmured qui-etly. ‘You say Nine, I say eight.’
‘All the same.’ Albin was saying, folding his arms over his mug. ‘Brothers are useful, and good old Dekar didn’t sniff at them like you do.’
‘That’s enough, Alb.’ Godry interrupted. ‘He’s still our King, even all the way out here.’
Cal opened his mouth, straightening in his seat, but Carel pushed him back down again tutting.
‘Sit still.’
‘But-’
‘Hardly our King anymore, anyways.’ Albin spat. ‘Not like it used to be. Valia’s for the lowlanders.’
‘You sounds like a Northman.’ Forley scowled.
‘Or one of the Elahi.’ Priss added. Albin bristled, and Godry jumped in just in time.
‘Doesn’t matter. All Dekar’s hard men never got to the Northmen camp.’ The grizzled old smelter went on. ‘Seems old Isandur weren’t done yet.
Cal gritted his teeth. His head ached, and his mouth tasted like smoke.
Albin spat at his feet, sneering. ‘Isandur my arse.’
‘Let him be, Alb.’ Forley told him.
There was a moment of uncomfortable silence as the butcher and his son fixed Forley with their most angry of looks. Then Godry cleared his throat noisily, and Petr shoved himself to his feet and stalked off to-wards the bar, snatching up their empty mugs as he went.
‘But Isandur is a crafty one, and no mistake. Showed up just in time, as always. What he wanted from it, no man can say. Them Chosen are scheming sorts, what ones is left. Us mortals couldn’t guess what they’s thinkin’.’ He paused, nodding knowingly. ‘Storm-tamers, they call ‘em. He spoke the words, and the sky opened. Biggest storm you’ve ever seen. Caught Dekar’s men as they came. Scattered ‘em like wheat in a gale.’
Petr aimed a crooked smile at Carel as he passed, and she lowered her eyes. Cal barely noticed. He no longer heard Godry. The room around him seemed very far away. Was he awake? Or was he dream-ing?
‘Northerners took the chance. Fled faster than the wind what chased them. Them that were still on the rock, them what murdered and killed our King?’ Godry went on, shaking his head sadly. ‘Them he called the wind itself for, and carried them away before Dekar could get at them. Aerolf’s brother, among them. King of the North, he goes by now. Couple of other Northmen, too. Stonesplitter cut almost in half by the Bloodless’ blade.’
Albin spat on the floor, and the miners scowled. No right-minded Valian liked this part, magic or not. Cal ground his teeth.
‘That Chosen bastard let the King get his throat slit, then shows up to save his killers.’ Albin cursed.
‘Makers know why. Not been seen since.’ Godry agreed. ‘Back they went, anyway, back to the rest of the savages as they fled like dogs. Storm was so heavy, river banks burst behind them, flooded half the valley.’
Cal’s heart was pounding in his ears, and his skull was ringing. Out-side, the wind whined over the thatching, howling at the broken clouds.
‘Don’t matter how many men Dekar had. Or how many Brothers. Ain’t no one swimming in mail.’
Cal forced his eyes shut. Black Ones. A storm. Falling.
‘Cal?’
He opened his eyes, blinking into the firelight, and found Carel look-ing down at him worriedly.
‘Does it hurt?’ She was asking softly.
‘What… no, I’m fine.’ He told her, blinking again. ‘I need to…’
‘Stay here.’ She told him, lifting up the bloody pail. ‘I need more cloth.’
She turned on her heel and disappeared. Cal’s head spun.
‘… already scared off the new folk with all these tall stories.’ Albin was saying. ‘Storm’s just a storm. Forge boy knows.’
Cal blinked, lurching unsteadily to his feet. Asking questions, the Innkeep had said. His vision blurred unsteadily, and the room stared back at him, wobbling like a top.
‘Cal, you need to sit down.’ Lokk told him, putting a hand on his shoulder.
Cal blinked. His eyes stopped spinning, and the ache in his head had vanished. The wind had moved on overhead, and the air was thick with smoke and heat. The little group of patrons were eyeing him curiously. All save the butcher.
‘Listen to him boy, before you hurt yourself.’ Albin sneered back at him.
‘Come on, Cal. Ignore him.’ Lokk murmured in his ear.
Cal swallowed, meeting the swarthy butcher’s eye for a moment. Then he let himself be steered backward, slumping into his seat like an empty sack.
‘Must have lost more blood than I thought.’ Lokk told him, pulling up a chair beside him and tutting. ‘Want to pick a fight with Albin as well as that storm?’
‘What?’ Cal mumbled, blinking. The butcher had gone back to his drink, and the other villagers had gone with him, grumbling amongst themselves about the practicalities of storm-tamers and treacherous, magical old men. He took a breath. ‘I wasn’t. I-’
‘Sure looked like you were. You know Alb. Just his way. Didn’t mean anything by it.’
‘Lokk, when did the new folk leave?’
‘What? Oh… I told you. Right after you turned up. Spooked ‘em good, you did, all bloody like a fresh ham…’
‘Where did they go?’
‘How should I know? Had my hands full peeling you off the floor. Why d’you care, anyway?’
‘Lokk, I need to…’
‘Oh, no you don’t! You aren’t going anywhere. Need to rest.’ His friend told him, pinning him to his chair by his shoulders. ‘Look like you fell down half the Teeth face first.’
‘I…’ Cal began, lowering his voice. His head was clearing, and the room was no longer spinning like a leaf. Beside the fire, the other pa-trons were still bickering emptily. The storm had passed, and the ache of it was clearing from his battered skull. ‘I didn’t just fall. Something was chasing me.’
‘What are you talking about? You crack your head, too?’
‘Lokk, listen. There were…’
‘Let go!’
They both looked up at the sudden commotion from beside the bar. Carel had just made it out from behind it with a fresh pail of steaming water before Petr had cornered her, bulky shoulders blocking the way forward like a stubborn bullock. He had one meaty hand curled around Carel’s wrist, and she had her eyes fixed on the floor. Cal was on his feet before Lokk could say anything.
‘Let go of her.’
The big youth let go of Carel’s wrist, and the pail fell abruptly back to her side, spilling steaming water across the floor. She looked at it distantly, frowning.
‘Or what, you little shit?’ The butcher’s son grumbled throatily, turning slowly around to facing Cal, glaring down at him with rheumy-eyes. His words had the imprecise edge of drink to them, and his breath smelled of sour ale. ‘Gonna throw yourself down a fucking hill at me?’
‘Just leave her be, Petr.’ Lokk added from Cal’s shoulder.
‘Mind your own business.’ The big youth snorted, still glaring at Cal darkly. ‘Sit down before you hurt yourself, stray.’
He began to turn back to Carel. Lokk put a hand on Cal’s shoulder, and Cal ignored him.
‘Leave her be.’ He said again.
‘Or what?’ Petr snarled back, lurching around again, wiping spittle from the corner of his mouth. ‘Going to bleed on me?’
‘It’s fine, Cal. No harm done.’ Carel said quietly from beside the bar, eyes still on the ground. ‘Sit down, let me finish with your cuts.’
‘You heard her. Be a good little foundling and sit down like she says.’
Cal swallowed. Petr was nearly a head taller than he was, and his arms were thick, corded with miner’s work. But there would be no avoiding it now, and he didn’t have the patience to let it be, that night. The big youth was drunk, and spoiling for a fight. Cal glanced back over his shoulder, but the other patrons were bickering loudly beside the fire, oblivious, or indifferent, or both. The Innkeep was still in the back somewhere, tapping a new barrel. Strike first. Strike hard. Cal shifted his feet slightly, readying himself. His head had cleared, and his pain was far away. The moment of calm was on him. A blink in time. The room faded away, vibrating with stillness. There was only his breath. In, and out. He waited.
‘Nothing to say? Suppose a dead whore can’t teach her cunt son any manners.’
Cal moved quickly, uncoiling like a bowstring. He burst forward off his hind leg, bunching his fist towards Petr’s slab of a jaw. The butch-er’s son had no chance to react. How could he? Cal moved with the ease of a seasoned brawler, hard limbs whipping like clubs. Lokk’s arm slipped from his shoulder. He was already halfway across the distance between them before Petr could even blink.
His boot splashed, skidded, slid. The water. Cal blinked, lost bal-ance, and slid wildly into Petr’s chest. His head thudded into the other boy, and he staggered back, confused, dazed. Petr blinked down at him, cogs turning slowly in his ale-slowed mind. Then a broad grin spread across the big youth’s jaw.
‘Should’ve listened, stray.’
2023.06.03 17:46 TheScribe_1 [The Book of the Chosen] - Chapter Twelve - The Blacksmith's Boy (Part Three)
Fourth and final part at the same time tomorrow.
Previous Chapter - Read 10 weeks ahead on Patreon - Read the story so far on Royal Road
*
Chapter Twelve - The Blacksmith's Boy (Part Three)
Clouds. Black, moving, twisting like rope. His head ached. His blood was hot as flame. Fire flashed in the clouds, and the old stormtower gleamed. The Old Man stared back at him from the gloom, eyes carving at his skin. You could have warned me. He taunted him. Smoke bled around his shoulders, and his skin melted away. Cal tried to look away, but it was too late. The fire was on him, and the sky filled his eyes with black water, smothering his breath.
*
He gasped, pain searing down his spine, and choked on his own breath, spluttering.
‘Get him up.’
‘I’ve got him.’
Lokk’s voice. Cal felt a hand curling underneath one of his arms, lifting his aching jaw off the floorboards. Pain shot down his back again, and he cried out, eyes spinning. Then there was another hand beneath him, and he was lifted groaning away from the floor. They lowered him carefully into a chair, and he fell against it, skin stinging, panting through gritted teeth.
‘What happened to him?’
‘Had a wolf at ‘im, by the looks of it!’
‘Don’t be a fool! No wolves in these woods.’
‘Believe in magic, but not in wolves?’
Cal groaned again.
‘Shut it, all of you!’
Cal blinked again, and the Innkeep’s rosy cheeks coalesced into the air before his eyes, looking down at him worriedly. Lokk was at his shoulder, wide-eyed, his mop of lank hair hanging loosely over his forehead. Someone had put the door to, and it was suddenly very quiet. Cal took a breath.
‘What happened, boy?’ The Innkeep asked him. Beyond his shoulders, Cal could see the faces of a half-dozen patrons, blinking back at him with wide eyes. All except Old Godry, who looked mildly irritated. Outside, the storm wailed helplessly against the thatching, and thunder rumbled against the hills, more distant, now. Cal held his breath, craning his ears. But the footsteps were gone. He swallowed.
‘There were…’ He hesitated, glancing towards the door. ‘I… fell.’
‘Down half the Teeth by the looks of it!’ Lokk pointed at his arms. ‘What were you doing out in this?’
Cal blinked, looking down. His arms were crisscrossed with dozens of bloody cuts, and his shirt was hanging off him in strings. He frowned, shrugging, and then winced as fire raced over his skin, and fell back against the chair, gasping.
‘Thought… Thought I had time to get back.’
‘Damned fool.’ Carel told him, appearing beside her father. She had a pail of steaming water under one arm, and a bundle of rags in the other. ‘Got to clean those before they rot.’
‘I’m fi-’
‘That’s enough talking.’ The Innkeep told him. ‘Or I’ll want coin for the cloth.’
Cal thought better of arguing.
‘Saw a fair few mugs go over.’ The Innkeep turned towards the rest of the room, smiling reassuringly. ‘I’ll fetch a new barrel. This one’s on the house.’
A few grumbles of approval from the assembled regulars. They were all watching him. He could feel their eyes on him, prying, poking. Sensible boys know better than to go wandering in a storm. They’d always thought the Blacksmith’s stray was cracked. Same as his master. Godry seemed to have let his irritation go at the promise of free ale, but Cal spotted the butcher’s brute of a son, Petr, sneering back at him over the rim of his mug. He lowered his eyes. They thought him mad. Maybe they were right. Behind his eyes, the shadows were still chasing him through endless trees, clawing at his heels. But the door stayed closed, and there was no sound beyond it but the storm. Maybe he was losing his mind.
‘Quite the show, that was.’ Lokk grinned as his father went off to find the barrel. Carel rolled her eyes, pulling up another chair and setting about dampening the cloth. ‘Barely seen you in weeks, then you show up all bloody an’ panting like a wolf that’s got in with the chickens? You always knew how to make an entrance.’
Cal grunted. He didn’t feel like explaining himself. Wasn’t sure he could, even if he did.
‘Scared off the new folk, too.’ Lokk nodded towards an empty table in the far corner of the room, scattered with discarded mugs.
Cal blinked. ‘What?’
‘Had some of Solen’s new hands in tonight.’ Lokk told him offhandedly, scratching his chin. ‘Quiet lot. Must have given them quite the fright. Saw themselves out sharpish.’
‘What did… hnngg.’ Cal clamped his teeth together with a groan as Carel pressed one of the rags against his bloody forearm.
‘Stay still.’ She told him, wiping the cloth slowly across his skin. It felt like someone was stripping his flesh with a wood plane. Cal clenched his jaw, forcing himself not to yelp. Lokk lounged idly against the bar beside him, sweeping his loose hair back from his forehead untidily.
‘Interrupted Godry, too.’ His friend went on, clearly unperturbed by his suffering. ‘Old goat hates being interrupted.’
Cal grunted again. The little clump of patrons seemed to have lost interest in him, now, turning back to their mugs as the Innkeep moved deftly through the tables, a little cask under his arm. Petr and his father were sitting glowering at no one in particular. Forley and his young wife Priss looked taken aback, and not the least bit shaken, by the unexpected turn of events the evening had taken, but the dour-faced miners beside them (whose names Cal did not know) seemed to have paid Cal’s entrance no heed at all. Old Godry was sitting patiently, firelight knotting over his scarred cheeks, waiting for his cue. Soon their mugs were full again, and the foolishness of the Blacksmith’s stray was quite forgotten. The Innkeep set the empty cask down somewhere behind the bar, and went off to find another barrel. Cal gritted his teeth as Carel went on with her work, eyes watering, and watched the villagers blur indifferently by the fire.
‘You weren’t finished, Godry.’ Albin, the butcher began, taking a long swig from his mug. ‘’bout to tell us how the wizard farted out his storm to save the savages.’
Cal saw Forley roll his eyes. ‘You know damned well where we were! Tell us about Arolf!’
Albin scowled, opening his mouth to retort, but Godry regained his composure in time to step in.
‘Aerolf, Forley.’ He corrected patiently.
‘Aerolf, then.’ The young shepherd agreed, rolling his eyes. ‘What happened next?’
‘Well, like I was saying, old King Talor’s already met his end, but them Northmen weren’t done yet. That beast Aerolf most of all.’ Godry began, lowering his voice and eyeing his audience conspiratorially. ‘He had a score to settle, see. This weren’t the kind of man to let a woman run from him, you understand.’
‘Serves him right.’ Albin grumbled. ‘Couldn’t keep her in his bed, even with a sword on her.’
The two miners snorted in agreement, and Petr just kept scowling. Cal flinched as Carel drew her rag over a particularly deep cut. He caught her eye reproachfully, and she smiled slyly.
‘Oops.’
She was very close, he realised, and he could feel the heat of her against his cut-thread skin. Another night, he might even have enjoyed it.
‘So there they was, dead King and all. Could of had the throne for hisself, right then.’ The old miner continued gravely. ‘But he was more animal than man. Mad as a beast, they say, big as a bear, covered head to toe in blood, cut up like an old buck. And this beast had a taste for blood.’
The little circle of villagers leaned a little closer in their seats, eyeing Godry eagerly. Cal realised he was listening along with them.
‘So off he goes, bloody magic blade in hand.’ Godry held out his hand like a blade, scowling at them over the fire. ‘He finds that place where old King Talor locked up his pretty young daughter. And what’d’you think he does when he finds it?’
‘Kills her.’ Forley whispered.
‘That’s right, boy.’ Godry nodded, dropping his arm. ‘Heard it said he clawed the tower door open with his bare hands. Dragged her out into that garden, butchered her right there in the grass, threw her off that big rock of theirs like an old ham. This weren’t a man you run from. If he couldn’t have her, no one could.’
‘How’d they kill him, then?’ Albin asked, frowning.
‘Well, see now. Northmen ain’t the only one with monsters.’ Godry said craftily, raising one patchwork brow. ‘Dekar’s a sharp one. He’d realised what was afoot, by now. Rallied the King’s Men, drove the scum back out of the King’s hall. Weren’t a man amongst them left standing, save the ones in the garden. But for Aerolf and them, he saved his best killer.’
‘The Bloodless.’ Forley murmured.
‘The Bloodless.’ Godry agreed. ‘Biggest woman you’ve ever seen. Big as a wagon, skin like blue snow. They say there’s nought but ice in them veins, and if you cut her, she don’t bleed.’
‘And I’ve got rocks for balls.’ Albin snorted.
‘Might as well, for all the good they do you.’ Godry snapped back at him. ‘But the Bloodless finds the traitor. Right there in that garden, all covered in the Princess’s blood. Cuts Aerolf down, throws him from the walls after her, him and his magic sword. Almost killed that Stonesplitter dog, too, whilst she were at it. Weren’t no easy thing though; gets her head cut open like a peach for its trouble. Should’ve died, right there. Would’ve, if not for those… other types Dekar had took up with.’
‘‘Least the traitor was dead.’
‘Aye, that he was. That Heartspire’s taller than a mountain. Say there weren’t nothing left of him but mulch, once he got to the bottom. Him and the princess both.’
‘Makers have mercy.’ Forley murmured, making the sign of the Nine over his breast. Even Albin took another mouthful of ale.
‘Weren’t no mercy. A beast don’t deserve none.’ Godry said soberly, following Forley and drawing a circle over his chest. ‘If he couldn’t ‘ave her, no one could.’
Cal barely heard them. He felt drained, as though the cuts had bled the weight from his bones. He floated just above his chair in a haze, and the roomed blurred and swayed as if through shallow water. Carel went about her work quietly, carefully, and the pain of it washed over him in raw waves, until the pail of water at her feet was stained an ugly pink.
‘Dekar had a plan though!’ Forley whispered excitedly, his reverence forgotten. ‘Tell ‘em, Godry!’
‘That he did, Forley.’ Godry smiled, his scarred face contorting grotesquely. ‘See, that Dekar’s sharp as a carving knife. Took up Taylor’s magic sword, led the King’s Men himself. But that weren’t all. Had some of his men kept back, from down West. Big men. Hard men. Came on the Northmen camp in the dead of night. Surrounded ‘em.’
‘Weren’t just any men, I hears it.’ Albin grumbled.
‘Here we go!’ Forley snorted.
‘Said it yourself, Godry. Dekar took up with them religious types.’ Albin shot back, frowning indignantly. ‘Everyone knows it.’
‘Religious? Masks don’t keep the Makers.’ Forley spat. ‘Ain’t nothing but bandits dressed up like monks.’
Cal blinked.
*‘*Brothers ain’t got no Gods save the Darkness.’ Priss murmured quietly. ‘You say Nine, I say eight.’
‘All the same.’ Albin was saying, folding his arms over his mug. ‘Brothers are useful, and good old Dekar didn’t sniff at them like you do.’
‘That’s enough, Alb.’ Godry interrupted. ‘He’s still our King, even all the way out here.’
Cal opened his mouth, straightening in his seat, but Carel pushed him back down again tutting.
‘Sit still.’
‘But-’
‘Hardly our King anymore, anyways.’ Albin spat. ‘Not like it used to be. Valia’s for the lowlanders.’
‘You sounds like a Northman.’ Forley scowled.
‘Or one of the Elahi.’ Priss added. Albin bristled, and Godry jumped in just in time.
‘Doesn’t matter. All Dekar’s hard men never got to the Northmen camp.’ The grizzled old smelter went on. ‘Seems old Isandur weren’t done yet.
Cal gritted his teeth. His head ached, and his mouth tasted like smoke.
Albin spat at his feet, sneering. ‘Isandur my arse.’
‘Let him be, Alb.’ Forley told him.
There was a moment of uncomfortable silence as the butcher and his son fixed Forley with their most angry of looks. Then Godry cleared his throat noisily, and Petr shoved himself to his feet and stalked off towards the bar, snatching up their empty mugs as he went.
‘But Isandur is a crafty one, and no mistake. Showed up just in time, as always. What he wanted from it, no man can say. Them Chosen are scheming sorts, what ones is left. Us mortals couldn’t guess what they’s thinkin’.’ He paused, nodding knowingly. ‘Storm-tamers, they call ‘em. He spoke the words, and the sky opened. Biggest storm you’ve ever seen. Caught Dekar’s men as they came. Scattered ‘em like wheat in a gale.’
Petr aimed a crooked smile at Carel as he passed, and she lowered her eyes. Cal barely noticed. He no longer heard Godry. The room around him seemed very far away. Was he awake? Or was he dreaming?
‘Northerners took the chance. Fled faster than the wind what chased them. Them that were still on the rock, them what murdered and killed our King?’ Godry went on, shaking his head sadly. ‘Them he called the wind itself for, and carried them away before Dekar could get at them. Aerolf’s brother, among them. King of the North, he goes by now. Couple of other Northmen, too. Stonesplitter cut almost in half by the Bloodless’ blade.’
Albin spat on the floor, and the miners scowled. No right-minded Valian liked this part, magic or not. Cal ground his teeth.
‘That Chosen bastard let the King get his throat slit, then shows up to save his killers.’ Albin cursed.
‘Makers know why. Not been seen since.’ Godry agreed. ‘Back they went, anyway, back to the rest of the savages as they fled like dogs. Storm was so heavy, river banks burst behind them, flooded half the valley.’
Cal’s heart was pounding in his ears, and his skull was ringing. Outside, the wind whined over the thatching, howling at the broken clouds.
‘Don’t matter how many men Dekar had. Or how many Brothers. Ain’t no one swimming in mail.’
Cal forced his eyes shut. Black Ones. A storm. Falling.
‘Cal?’
He opened his eyes, blinking into the firelight, and found Carel looking down at him worriedly.
‘Does it hurt?’ She was asking softly.
‘What… no, I’m fine.’ He told her, blinking again. ‘I need to…’
‘Stay here.’ She told him, lifting up the bloody pail. ‘I need more cloth.’
She turned on her heel and disappeared. Cal’s head spun.
‘… already scared off the new folk with all these tall stories.’ Albin was saying. ‘Storm’s just a storm. Forge boy knows.’
Cal blinked, lurching unsteadily to his feet. Asking questions, the Innkeep had said. His vision blurred unsteadily, and the room stared back at him, wobbling like a top.
‘Cal, you need to sit down.’ Lokk told him, putting a hand on his shoulder.
Cal blinked. His eyes stopped spinning, and the ache in his head had vanished. The wind had moved on overhead, and the air was thick with smoke and heat. The little group of patrons were eyeing him curiously. All save the butcher.
‘Listen to him boy, before you hurt yourself.’ Albin sneered back at him.
‘Come on, Cal. Ignore him.’ Lokk murmured in his ear.
Cal swallowed, meeting the swarthy butcher’s eye for a moment. Then he let himself be steered backward, slumping into his seat like an empty sack.
‘Must have lost more blood than I thought.’ Lokk told him, pulling up a chair beside him and tutting. ‘Want to pick a fight with Albin as well as that storm?’
‘What?’ Cal mumbled, blinking. The butcher had gone back to his drink, and the other villagers had gone with him, grumbling amongst themselves about the practicalities of storm-tamers and treacherous, magical old men. He took a breath. ‘I wasn’t. I-’
‘Sure looked like you were. You know Alb. Just his way. Didn’t mean anything by it.’
‘Lokk, when did the new folk leave?’
‘What? Oh… I told you. Right after you turned up. Spooked ‘em good, you did, all bloody like a fresh ham…’
‘Where did they go?’
‘How should I know? Had my hands full peeling you off the floor. Why d’you care, anyway?’
‘Lokk, I need to…’
‘Oh, no you don’t! You aren’t going anywhere. Need to rest.’ His friend told him, pinning him to his chair by his shoulders. ‘Look like you fell down half the Teeth face first.’
‘I…’ Cal began, lowering his voice. His head was clearing, and the room was no longer spinning like a leaf. Beside the fire, the other patrons were still bickering emptily. The storm had passed, and the ache of it was clearing from his battered skull. ‘I didn’t just fall. Something was chasing me.’
‘What are you talking about? You crack your head, too?’
‘Lokk, listen. There were…’
‘Let go!’
They both looked up at the sudden commotion from beside the bar. Carel had just made it out from behind it with a fresh pail of steaming water before Petr had cornered her, bulky shoulders blocking the way forward like a stubborn bullock. He had one meaty hand curled around Carel’s wrist, and she had her eyes fixed on the floor. Cal was on his feet before Lokk could say anything.
‘Let go of her.’
The big youth let go of Carel’s wrist, and the pail fell abruptly back to her side, spilling steaming water across the floor. She looked at it distantly, frowning.
‘Or what, you little shit?’ The butcher’s son grumbled throatily, turning slowly around to facing Cal, glaring down at him with rheumy-eyes. His words had the imprecise edge of drink to them, and his breath smelled of sour ale. ‘Gonna throw yourself down a fucking hill at me?’
‘Just leave her be, Petr.’ Lokk added from Cal’s shoulder.
‘Mind your own business.’ The big youth snorted, still glaring at Cal darkly. ‘Sit down before you hurt yourself, stray.’
He began to turn back to Carel. Lokk put a hand on Cal’s shoulder, and Cal ignored him.
‘Leave her be.’ He said again.
‘Or what?’ Petr snarled back, lurching around again, wiping spittle from the corner of his mouth. ‘Going to bleed on me?’
‘It’s fine, Cal. No harm done.’ Carel said quietly from beside the bar, eyes still on the ground. ‘Sit down, let me finish with your cuts.’
‘You heard her. Be a good little foundling and sit down like she says.’
Cal swallowed. Petr was nearly a head taller than he was, and his arms were thick, corded with miner’s work. But there would be no avoiding it now, and he didn’t have the patience to let it be, that night. The big youth was drunk, and spoiling for a fight. Cal glanced back over his shoulder, but the other patrons were bickering loudly beside the fire, oblivious, or indifferent, or both. The Innkeep was still in the back somewhere, tapping a new barrel. Strike first. Strike hard. Cal shifted his feet slightly, readying himself. His head had cleared, and his pain was far away. The moment of calm was on him. A blink in time. The room faded away, vibrating with stillness. There was only his breath. In, and out. He waited.
‘Nothing to say? Suppose a dead whore can’t teach her cunt son any manners.’
Cal moved quickly, uncoiling like a bowstring. He burst forward off his hind leg, bunching his fist towards Petr’s slab of a jaw. The butcher’s son had no chance to react. How could he? Cal moved with the ease of a seasoned brawler, hard limbs whipping like clubs. Lokk’s arm slipped from his shoulder. He was already halfway across the distance between them before Petr could even blink.
His boot splashed, skidded, slid. The water. Cal blinked, lost balance, and slid wildly into Petr’s chest. His head thudded into the other boy, and he staggered back, confused, dazed. Petr blinked down at him, cogs turning slowly in his ale-slowed mind. Then a broad grin spread across the big youth’s jaw.
‘Should’ve listened, stray.’
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*
Chapter Twelve - The Blacksmith's Boy (Part Three)
Clouds. Black, moving, twisting like rope. His head ached. His blood was hot as flame. Fire flashed in the clouds, and the old stormtower gleamed. The Old Man stared back at him from the gloom, eyes carving at his skin. You could have warned me. He taunted him. Smoke bled around his shoulders, and his skin melted away. Cal tried to look away, but it was too late. The fire was on him, and the sky filled his eyes with black water, smothering his breath.
*
He gasped, pain searing down his spine, and choked on his own breath, spluttering.
‘Get him up.’
‘I’ve got him.’
Lokk’s voice. Cal felt a hand curling underneath one of his arms, lifting his aching jaw off the floorboards. Pain shot down his back again, and he cried out, eyes spinning. Then there was another hand beneath him, and he was lifted groaning away from the floor. They lowered him carefully into a chair, and he fell against it, skin stinging, panting through gritted teeth.
‘What happened to him?’
‘Had a wolf at ‘im, by the looks of it!’
‘Don’t be a fool! No wolves in these woods.’
‘Believe in magic, but not in wolves?’
Cal groaned again.
‘Shut it, all of you!’
Cal blinked again, and the Innkeep’s rosy cheeks coalesced into the air before his eyes, looking down at him worriedly. Lokk was at his shoulder, wide-eyed, his mop of lank hair hanging loosely over his forehead. Someone had put the door to, and it was suddenly very quiet. Cal took a breath.
‘What happened, boy?’ The Innkeep asked him. Beyond his shoulders, Cal could see the faces of a half-dozen patrons, blinking back at him with wide eyes. All except Old Godry, who looked mildly irritated. Outside, the storm wailed helplessly against the thatching, and thunder rumbled against the hills, more distant, now. Cal held his breath, craning his ears. But the footsteps were gone. He swallowed.
‘There were…’ He hesitated, glancing towards the door. ‘I… fell.’
‘Down half the Teeth by the looks of it!’ Lokk pointed at his arms. ‘What were you doing out in this?’
Cal blinked, looking down. His arms were crisscrossed with dozens of bloody cuts, and his shirt was hanging off him in strings. He frowned, shrugging, and then winced as fire raced over his skin, and fell back against the chair, gasping.
‘Thought… Thought I had time to get back.’
‘Damned fool.’ Carel told him, appearing beside her father. She had a pail of steaming water under one arm, and a bundle of rags in the other. ‘Got to clean those before they rot.’
‘I’m fi-’
‘That’s enough talking.’ The Innkeep told him. ‘Or I’ll want coin for the cloth.’
Cal thought better of arguing.
‘Saw a fair few mugs go over.’ The Innkeep turned towards the rest of the room, smiling reassuringly. ‘I’ll fetch a new barrel. This one’s on the house.’
A few grumbles of approval from the assembled regulars. They were all watching him. He could feel their eyes on him, prying, poking. Sensible boys know better than to go wandering in a storm. They’d always thought the Blacksmith’s stray was cracked. Same as his master. Godry seemed to have let his irritation go at the promise of free ale, but Cal spotted the butcher’s brute of a son, Petr, sneering back at him over the rim of his mug. He lowered his eyes. They thought him mad. Maybe they were right. Behind his eyes, the shadows were still chasing him through endless trees, clawing at his heels. But the door stayed closed, and there was no sound beyond it but the storm. Maybe he was losing his mind.
‘Quite the show, that was.’ Lokk grinned as his father went off to find the barrel. Carel rolled her eyes, pulling up another chair and setting about dampening the cloth. ‘Barely seen you in weeks, then you show up all bloody an’ panting like a wolf that’s got in with the chickens? You always knew how to make an entrance.’
Cal grunted. He didn’t feel like explaining himself. Wasn’t sure he could, even if he did.
‘Scared off the new folk, too.’ Lokk nodded towards an empty table in the far corner of the room, scattered with discarded mugs.
Cal blinked. ‘What?’
‘Had some of Solen’s new hands in tonight.’ Lokk told him offhandedly, scratching his chin. ‘Quiet lot. Must have given them quite the fright. Saw themselves out sharpish.’
‘What did… hnngg.’ Cal clamped his teeth together with a groan as Carel pressed one of the rags against his bloody forearm.
‘Stay still.’ She told him, wiping the cloth slowly across his skin. It felt like someone was stripping his flesh with a wood plane. Cal clenched his jaw, forcing himself not to yelp. Lokk lounged idly against the bar beside him, sweeping his loose hair back from his forehead untidily.
‘Interrupted Godry, too.’ His friend went on, clearly unperturbed by his suffering. ‘Old goat hates being interrupted.’
Cal grunted again. The little clump of patrons seemed to have lost interest in him, now, turning back to their mugs as the Innkeep moved deftly through the tables, a little cask under his arm. Petr and his father were sitting glowering at no one in particular. Forley and his young wife Priss looked taken aback, and not the least bit shaken, by the unexpected turn of events the evening had taken, but the dour-faced miners beside them (whose names Cal did not know) seemed to have paid Cal’s entrance no heed at all. Old Godry was sitting patiently, firelight knotting over his scarred cheeks, waiting for his cue. Soon their mugs were full again, and the foolishness of the Blacksmith’s stray was quite forgotten. The Innkeep set the empty cask down somewhere behind the bar, and went off to find another barrel. Cal gritted his teeth as Carel went on with her work, eyes watering, and watched the villagers blur indifferently by the fire.
‘You weren’t finished, Godry.’ Albin, the butcher began, taking a long swig from his mug. ‘’bout to tell us how the wizard farted out his storm to save the savages.’
Cal saw Forley roll his eyes. ‘You know damned well where we were! Tell us about Arolf!’
Albin scowled, opening his mouth to retort, but Godry regained his composure in time to step in.
‘Aerolf, Forley.’ He corrected patiently.
‘Aerolf, then.’ The young shepherd agreed, rolling his eyes. ‘What happened next?’
‘Well, like I was saying, old King Talor’s already met his end, but them Northmen weren’t done yet. That beast Aerolf most of all.’ Godry began, lowering his voice and eyeing his audience conspiratorially. ‘He had a score to settle, see. This weren’t the kind of man to let a woman run from him, you understand.’
‘Serves him right.’ Albin grumbled. ‘Couldn’t keep her in his bed, even with a sword on her.’
The two miners snorted in agreement, and Petr just kept scowling. Cal flinched as Carel drew her rag over a particularly deep cut. He caught her eye reproachfully, and she smiled slyly.
‘Oops.’
She was very close, he realised, and he could feel the heat of her against his cut-thread skin. Another night, he might even have enjoyed it.
‘So there they was, dead King and all. Could of had the throne for hisself, right then.’ The old miner continued gravely. ‘But he was more animal than man. Mad as a beast, they say, big as a bear, covered head to toe in blood, cut up like an old buck. And this beast had a taste for blood.’
The little circle of villagers leaned a little closer in their seats, eyeing Godry eagerly. Cal realised he was listening along with them.
‘So off he goes, bloody magic blade in hand.’ Godry held out his hand like a blade, scowling at them over the fire. ‘He finds that place where old King Talor locked up his pretty young daughter. And what’d’you think he does when he finds it?’
‘Kills her.’ Forley whispered.
‘That’s right, boy.’ Godry nodded, dropping his arm. ‘Heard it said he clawed the tower door open with his bare hands. Dragged her out into that garden, butchered her right there in the grass, threw her off that big rock of theirs like an old ham. This weren’t a man you run from. If he couldn’t have her, no one could.’
‘How’d they kill him, then?’ Albin asked, frowning.
‘Well, see now. Northmen ain’t the only one with monsters.’ Godry said craftily, raising one patchwork brow. ‘Dekar’s a sharp one. He’d realised what was afoot, by now. Rallied the King’s Men, drove the scum back out of the King’s hall. Weren’t a man amongst them left standing, save the ones in the garden. But for Aerolf and them, he saved his best killer.’
‘The Bloodless.’ Forley murmured.
‘The Bloodless.’ Godry agreed. ‘Biggest woman you’ve ever seen. Big as a wagon, skin like blue snow. They say there’s nought but ice in them veins, and if you cut her, she don’t bleed.’
‘And I’ve got rocks for balls.’ Albin snorted.
‘Might as well, for all the good they do you.’ Godry snapped back at him. ‘But the Bloodless finds the traitor. Right there in that garden, all covered in the Princess’s blood. Cuts Aerolf down, throws him from the walls after her, him and his magic sword. Almost killed that Stonesplitter dog, too, whilst she were at it. Weren’t no easy thing though; gets her head cut open like a peach for its trouble. Should’ve died, right there. Would’ve, if not for those… other types Dekar had took up with.’
‘‘Least the traitor was dead.’
‘Aye, that he was. That Heartspire’s taller than a mountain. Say there weren’t nothing left of him but mulch, once he got to the bottom. Him and the princess both.’
‘Makers have mercy.’ Forley murmured, making the sign of the Nine over his breast. Even Albin took another mouthful of ale.
‘Weren’t no mercy. A beast don’t deserve none.’ Godry said soberly, following Forley and drawing a circle over his chest. ‘If he couldn’t ‘ave her, no one could.’
Cal barely heard them. He felt drained, as though the cuts had bled the weight from his bones. He floated just above his chair in a haze, and the roomed blurred and swayed as if through shallow water. Carel went about her work quietly, carefully, and the pain of it washed over him in raw waves, until the pail of water at her feet was stained an ugly pink.
‘Dekar had a plan though!’ Forley whispered excitedly, his reverence forgotten. ‘Tell ‘em, Godry!’
‘That he did, Forley.’ Godry smiled, his scarred face contorting grotesquely. ‘See, that Dekar’s sharp as a carving knife. Took up Taylor’s magic sword, led the King’s Men himself. But that weren’t all. Had some of his men kept back, from down West. Big men. Hard men. Came on the Northmen camp in the dead of night. Surrounded ‘em.’
‘Weren’t just any men, I hears it.’ Albin grumbled.
‘Here we go!’ Forley snorted.
‘Said it yourself, Godry. Dekar took up with them religious types.’ Albin shot back, frowning indignantly. ‘Everyone knows it.’
‘Religious? Masks don’t keep the Makers.’ Forley spat. ‘Ain’t nothing but bandits dressed up like monks.’
Cal blinked.
*‘*Brothers ain’t got no Gods save the Darkness.’ Priss murmured quietly. ‘You say Nine, I say eight.’
‘All the same.’ Albin was saying, folding his arms over his mug. ‘Brothers are useful, and good old Dekar didn’t sniff at them like you do.’
‘That’s enough, Alb.’ Godry interrupted. ‘He’s still our King, even all the way out here.’
Cal opened his mouth, straightening in his seat, but Carel pushed him back down again tutting.
‘Sit still.’
‘But-’
‘Hardly our King anymore, anyways.’ Albin spat. ‘Not like it used to be. Valia’s for the lowlanders.’
‘You sounds like a Northman.’ Forley scowled.
‘Or one of the Elahi.’ Priss added. Albin bristled, and Godry jumped in just in time.
‘Doesn’t matter. All Dekar’s hard men never got to the Northmen camp.’ The grizzled old smelter went on. ‘Seems old Isandur weren’t done yet.
Cal gritted his teeth. His head ached, and his mouth tasted like smoke.
Albin spat at his feet, sneering. ‘Isandur my arse.’
‘Let him be, Alb.’ Forley told him.
There was a moment of uncomfortable silence as the butcher and his son fixed Forley with their most angry of looks. Then Godry cleared his throat noisily, and Petr shoved himself to his feet and stalked off towards the bar, snatching up their empty mugs as he went.
‘But Isandur is a crafty one, and no mistake. Showed up just in time, as always. What he wanted from it, no man can say. Them Chosen are scheming sorts, what ones is left. Us mortals couldn’t guess what they’s thinkin’.’ He paused, nodding knowingly. ‘Storm-tamers, they call ‘em. He spoke the words, and the sky opened. Biggest storm you’ve ever seen. Caught Dekar’s men as they came. Scattered ‘em like wheat in a gale.’
Petr aimed a crooked smile at Carel as he passed, and she lowered her eyes. Cal barely noticed. He no longer heard Godry. The room around him seemed very far away. Was he awake? Or was he dreaming?
‘Northerners took the chance. Fled faster than the wind what chased them. Them that were still on the rock, them what murdered and killed our King?’ Godry went on, shaking his head sadly. ‘Them he called the wind itself for, and carried them away before Dekar could get at them. Aerolf’s brother, among them. King of the North, he goes by now. Couple of other Northmen, too. Stonesplitter cut almost in half by the Bloodless’ blade.’
Albin spat on the floor, and the miners scowled. No right-minded Valian liked this part, magic or not. Cal ground his teeth.
‘That Chosen bastard let the King get his throat slit, then shows up to save his killers.’ Albin cursed.
‘Makers know why. Not been seen since.’ Godry agreed. ‘Back they went, anyway, back to the rest of the savages as they fled like dogs. Storm was so heavy, river banks burst behind them, flooded half the valley.’
Cal’s heart was pounding in his ears, and his skull was ringing. Outside, the wind whined over the thatching, howling at the broken clouds.
‘Don’t matter how many men Dekar had. Or how many Brothers. Ain’t no one swimming in mail.’
Cal forced his eyes shut. Black Ones. A storm. Falling.
‘Cal?’
He opened his eyes, blinking into the firelight, and found Carel looking down at him worriedly.
‘Does it hurt?’ She was asking softly.
‘What… no, I’m fine.’ He told her, blinking again. ‘I need to…’
‘Stay here.’ She told him, lifting up the bloody pail. ‘I need more cloth.’
She turned on her heel and disappeared. Cal’s head spun.
‘… already scared off the new folk with all these tall stories.’ Albin was saying. ‘Storm’s just a storm. Forge boy knows.’
Cal blinked, lurching unsteadily to his feet. Asking questions, the Innkeep had said. His vision blurred unsteadily, and the room stared back at him, wobbling like a top.
‘Cal, you need to sit down.’ Lokk told him, putting a hand on his shoulder.
Cal blinked. His eyes stopped spinning, and the ache in his head had vanished. The wind had moved on overhead, and the air was thick with smoke and heat. The little group of patrons were eyeing him curiously. All save the butcher.
‘Listen to him boy, before you hurt yourself.’ Albin sneered back at him.
‘Come on, Cal. Ignore him.’ Lokk murmured in his ear.
Cal swallowed, meeting the swarthy butcher’s eye for a moment. Then he let himself be steered backward, slumping into his seat like an empty sack.
‘Must have lost more blood than I thought.’ Lokk told him, pulling up a chair beside him and tutting. ‘Want to pick a fight with Albin as well as that storm?’
‘What?’ Cal mumbled, blinking. The butcher had gone back to his drink, and the other villagers had gone with him, grumbling amongst themselves about the practicalities of storm-tamers and treacherous, magical old men. He took a breath. ‘I wasn’t. I-’
‘Sure looked like you were. You know Alb. Just his way. Didn’t mean anything by it.’
‘Lokk, when did the new folk leave?’
‘What? Oh… I told you. Right after you turned up. Spooked ‘em good, you did, all bloody like a fresh ham…’
‘Where did they go?’
‘How should I know? Had my hands full peeling you off the floor. Why d’you care, anyway?’
‘Lokk, I need to…’
‘Oh, no you don’t! You aren’t going anywhere. Need to rest.’ His friend told him, pinning him to his chair by his shoulders. ‘Look like you fell down half the Teeth face first.’
‘I…’ Cal began, lowering his voice. His head was clearing, and the room was no longer spinning like a leaf. Beside the fire, the other patrons were still bickering emptily. The storm had passed, and the ache of it was clearing from his battered skull. ‘I didn’t just fall. Something was chasing me.’
‘What are you talking about? You crack your head, too?’
‘Lokk, listen. There were…’
‘Let go!’
They both looked up at the sudden commotion from beside the bar. Carel had just made it out from behind it with a fresh pail of steaming water before Petr had cornered her, bulky shoulders blocking the way forward like a stubborn bullock. He had one meaty hand curled around Carel’s wrist, and she had her eyes fixed on the floor. Cal was on his feet before Lokk could say anything.
‘Let go of her.’
The big youth let go of Carel’s wrist, and the pail fell abruptly back to her side, spilling steaming water across the floor. She looked at it distantly, frowning.
‘Or what, you little shit?’ The butcher’s son grumbled throatily, turning slowly around to facing Cal, glaring down at him with rheumy-eyes. His words had the imprecise edge of drink to them, and his breath smelled of sour ale. ‘Gonna throw yourself down a fucking hill at me?’
‘Just leave her be, Petr.’ Lokk added from Cal’s shoulder.
‘Mind your own business.’ The big youth snorted, still glaring at Cal darkly. ‘Sit down before you hurt yourself, stray.’
He began to turn back to Carel. Lokk put a hand on Cal’s shoulder, and Cal ignored him.
‘Leave her be.’ He said again.
‘Or what?’ Petr snarled back, lurching around again, wiping spittle from the corner of his mouth. ‘Going to bleed on me?’
‘It’s fine, Cal. No harm done.’ Carel said quietly from beside the bar, eyes still on the ground. ‘Sit down, let me finish with your cuts.’
‘You heard her. Be a good little foundling and sit down like she says.’
Cal swallowed. Petr was nearly a head taller than he was, and his arms were thick, corded with miner’s work. But there would be no avoiding it now, and he didn’t have the patience to let it be, that night. The big youth was drunk, and spoiling for a fight. Cal glanced back over his shoulder, but the other patrons were bickering loudly beside the fire, oblivious, or indifferent, or both. The Innkeep was still in the back somewhere, tapping a new barrel. Strike first. Strike hard. Cal shifted his feet slightly, readying himself. His head had cleared, and his pain was far away. The moment of calm was on him. A blink in time. The room faded away, vibrating with stillness. There was only his breath. In, and out. He waited.
‘Nothing to say? Suppose a dead whore can’t teach her cunt son any manners.’
Cal moved quickly, uncoiling like a bowstring. He burst forward off his hind leg, bunching his fist towards Petr’s slab of a jaw. The butcher’s son had no chance to react. How could he? Cal moved with the ease of a seasoned brawler, hard limbs whipping like clubs. Lokk’s arm slipped from his shoulder. He was already halfway across the distance between them before Petr could even blink.
His boot splashed, skidded, slid. The water. Cal blinked, lost balance, and slid wildly into Petr’s chest. His head thudded into the other boy, and he staggered back, confused, dazed. Petr blinked down at him, cogs turning slowly in his ale-slowed mind. Then a broad grin spread across the big youth’s jaw.
‘Should’ve listened, stray.’
2023.06.03 16:09 KKshilling The Founder Journey with Brett Adcock ($2.7 Billion IPO)
 | The Founder Journey: Brett AdcockBuilding in PublicIf you spend any time on Twitter, you’ve probably seen some of Brett’s viral threads: https://twitter.com/adcock_brett/status/1618268570928152580?s=20 Plenty of founders “build in public” like this, but Brett may very well be the most successful of them all. So why would a founder who’s experienced massive success multiple times, and is now building a new startup from 0 → 1 (a time when every second is precious), bother writing detailed and tactical threads on Twitter every week? When I asked Brett about this, he emphasized how helpful is can be for fundraising (at any stage). If Figure, his new autonomous humanoid robot startup, is successful then he’s “going to need to raise enormous amounts of capital.” Building in public, or at least building an audience, allows him to get consistent exposure to prospective investors and top-tier talent. In fact, Brett said he’s already hired over a dozen people via Twitter for Figure. Later on in our chat he hinted that driving positive, founder-led PR (something he’s written about before) was also a factor: https://preview.redd.it/j6dd4em88t3b1.png?width=1087&format=png&auto=webp&s=aeceed51cabfa4a5fea8e175e785349d35f85298 The bottom line is that people want to feel like they’re part of the ideas that change the world, and the founders who embrace that are more likely to build successful startups. Tough TimesIf a startup is successful, it’s easy to look at it through rose-colored glasses. But a founder’s day to day life is typically overrun with problems and trying to solve them:https://preview.redd.it/8e2okapa8t3b1.png?width=1087&format=png&auto=webp&s=bd8766ec9bdc01397a082aad4463daf95446a05a When I pressed him on this, Brett shared that his mindset was not to dwell or fixate on any particular problems — instead, he just treats each problem (large or small) as something else to figure out and solve. This is what sets great founders apart. Huge problems don’t phase them. They don’t let their startup get into a “death by a thousand cuts” scenario because they’re aware of and actively fixing even the small problems too. Keeping yourself at an even keel and not letting the ups and downs sidetrack you from your mission is one of the key founder skills that’s not only hard to teach, but also often not emphasized enough to first-time founders before they start building. https://preview.redd.it/ycblxx9g9t3b1.png?width=1087&format=png&auto=webp&s=dbfe7d83f93e8c6d995b4a2b79d2d5b1b54a0691 Naming a CompanyTake a second and think about the startup with the best name you’ve ever come across. What actually makes it a great name?Successful founders almost never talk about this. In fact, most I know hate naming things — it’s one of my least favorite things to do too. But there is a science to it that can help make it easier. Brett shared his framework on Twitter earlier this year: https://twitter.com/adcock_brett/status/1613551076665626628?s=20 You can break his framework down into these rules:
Take every advantage you can — your startup’s name can be one too. Fundraising AdviceBrett has raised over $1 billion in his career. Given the current macro climate, I asked Brett for his best advice for founders while fundraising: https://twitter.com/adcock_brett/status/1589281462242549760?s=20 He advised that founders not neglect the top of their fundraising funnel. Especially early on, before you know what investors will look for from your startup or how they’ll evaluate it (and you, and the market), founders should treat their outreach like “impressions” on social media. Brett advocates for getting “the story you want to tell” in front of as many people as possible. Track the “impressions”, grow your top of funnel, and see how well (and, more importantly, who / what type of investors) they’re converting through the different steps of the funnel. When we were fundraising for my last startup, we tracked the following statuses within our fundraising funnel:
Brett also shared how it is important to understand the mandates and theses that investors have when fundraising. Virtually every fund has verticals and specific sectors that they are looking to invest in. Almost always, your lead investor will be passionate and have a core thesis around your area of focus. Attacking the Impossiblehttps://twitter.com/adcock_brett/status/1604501998660771841?s=20 The number one thing that stands out about Brett’s overarching founder journey across his three companies is that he keeps taking on harder and harder challenges. First, a software-powered hiring marketplace. Then, electric vertical takeoff aircraft and now, autonomous humanoid robots. After he sold his first company, Vettery, for $100 million it would’ve been so easy for him to go relax on beaches for the rest of his life. At the very least, most founders don’t choose harder problems after success. Brett’s styled his career in the vein of two founders I have considerable admiration for in this regard — Elon Musk and Travis Kalanick. When I asked him why he chose this path he said that, for him, being a founder isn’t about money — it’s about making a real difference and better future for the world (but that it’s completely fine if, for someone else, it actually is about the money). He also compared “hard” startups vs. “easy” ones by saying that “hard” startups (aka hard problems to solve) have advantages:
HypergrowthAs startups experience hypergrowth, new challenges emerge at increasingly quick rates. It’s simply impossible to keep up, and relying on the systems you have in place is key.Brett shared that the best way to solve hypergrowth-related issues, though, is through growth. “Growth cures all things” — it’s intoxicating for your team and helps overcome or reduce the impact of problems. He also pointed out that the biggest factor that allowed him to go from 0 employees to 70 in a short time period was the ability to communicate clearly. And that having singular documents, especially around company culture, that are shared clearly with newly joining team members, can make a big difference. Some more resources - http://surl.li/hpmjz |
2023.06.03 14:45 haberdashcollect The Abridged History of Hololive Ver. 2
The Previous Version
While I was writing the regular State of VTuber World post, I wrote a massive tangent detailing Hololive's history, and decided it would be much better done as a separate post.
I was actually going to overwrite the previous version, but the previous version is too... old, so I thought I would just write a new one. Hopefully I'll update this in September, which would be the end of the current period, and then probably put out Ver. 3 a long time after, if that ever happens.
The history of Hololive are split into 9-ish month chunks.
So, Sora did not start with the most fortuitous occasions. But the luck for VTuber and Sora turned around as Kaguya Luna became the new hit star and ushered in a kind of Cambrian Explosion of VTuber at the time. One of the bigger innovations was that Luna frequently mentioned other VTubers, she coined the term Oyabun for Kizuna Ai, and therefore there was a genuine sense of community building around this newfangled tech. Hololive App went online of December 21, 2017.
Sora was one of the bigger beneficiaries as she was redirected by Siro after her Christmas stream failed to work. Sora started to gain subscribers at a pretty good clip at that point. Sora is sometimes mentioned as one of the secondary heavenly kings along with Fuji Aoi, her close friend to this day.
Cover debuted their second talent, Roboco-san, on March 4, 2018. Roboco was the demo model for the Hololive app, similar to the beginnings of Nijisanji with 1st Gen's model also being a demo. Nijisanji was and is and will be a foil to Hololive. They both started as an app but quickly pivoted to the entertainment industry. Nijisanji's 1st Gen was a revolution - and singlehandedly shifted the meta in a way that will never be done before. And Nijisanji were pumping out great talents every month or so, flooding the market, which further threatened the other companies.
Nijisanji prompted fierce response from the competitor. AppLand, the company responsible for Siro, decided to debut 9 new talents that will operate on a strict weekly schedule, and this approach worked very well. Cover had to respond in turn, and so they quickly debuted 6 new talents, first being Yozora Mel who debuted on May 13, 2018.
First Gen of Hololive - Aki Rosenthal, Natsuiro Matsuri, Shirakami Fubuki - debuted on June 1, 2018 with Akai Haato debuting a week later because she had some tech issues. There was one other person but we do not talk about this person, she basically bribed her way into debut, and after that incident Yozora Mel was folded into this 1st Gen. A recent observation - there is a hidden theme in early VTuber groups, for example Re:AcT was originally called Kageyaki Stars and their talents all had a Zodiac theme, Leona being the Leo, of course, and Kyo being... a virgin? Not sure, actually. This Gen also has a theme, reference much later in the title for their song Plasmagic Seasons, which is of course the Seasons - Akai Haato as Spring, Natsuiro Matsuri as Summer, Aki Rosenthal as Fall, and Shirakami Fubuki as Winter. That extra person really did not fit, especially with the above theme.
Second Gen of Hololive quickly followed, the debut was more spaced out this time. Minato Aqua went first on August 8, 2018, followed by Murasaki Shion on August 17, 2018, Nakiri Ayame was next on September 3, 2018, followed by Yuzuki Choco on September 4, 2018, and Oozora Subaru rounding out the crew debuting on September 14, 2018. Around the same time, on August 1, 2018, another Cover Project launched called Sakura Miko project, which was a return of Kizuna Ai style content.
This odd collection signifies the attitudes of this time, no one really knew what they were doing. There were not many collabs, in fact Hololive members tended to collab with Nijisanji members more than their own members, and many kind of considered Hololive to be kind of a sister group to Nijisanji. Again, the contents were kind of halfway between video and streams, there weren't really long streams, those that did famously Kanae and Korone, were seen as odd outliers. There were a lot of odd and interesting VTuber-industry projects - a fun thing is to watch PL's of future talents interacting with their future workmates, which is obscenely entertaining in some respects.
Sakura Miko project immediately crashed and burned and Miko joined Hololive proper on December 25, 2018. On November 15, AZKi debuted as a part of a collaboration with Cover and upd8, another agency that was progenitor of Kizuna Ai. upd8 ran things differently, it was a 'talent' agency and not a creative one, which meant upd8 did not hold onto any assets of livers. upd8 had a hodgepodge of creators, including one half of 774 inc., which meant AZKi, Inaba Haneru, Patra Suou and Kizuna Ai were technically part of the same agency at this point in November 2018. Oh Shibuya Hal and Utai Meika was also part of this group. Yep, upd8 was a mess, had potential though.
On December 12, 2018, Ookami Mio joined Hololive as part of a new project called Hololive GAMERS, and unlike their other projects GAMERS actually grew a few months later.
They still regularly collabed with Nijisanji at that point. One can go through what is now seemingly bizarre combos - Higuchi Kaede and Roboco, Nakiri Ayame and Inui Toko, and so on... although few still persist to this day, Kamioka Family and its extension NASS and Oozora Family being the two...
But this was the time that Hololive kind of found the identity that we were kind of familiar with. This was also the time that idolization was slowly making its way through the company. The well-remember first Hololive Summer (which was, and still is, a Comiket associated project) was the first time Shiny Smily Story was introduced with the full song being released on September 17, 2019, which led to Hololive 1stFes or Nonstop Story on January 28, 2020.
Hololive extended the relationship with upd8 regarding AZKi to be Innoaka Music and they eventually snagged an indie VTuber named Hoshimachi Suisei, who has been active since March 22, 2018, during the height of the First Boom, announcing this new venture on May 19, 2019. Hoshimachi Suisei was frustrated with the arrangement and joined Hololive proper on December 1, 2019. The inclusion date is more mutely celebrated but their growth more closely tracks with the counterparts who debuting around their inclusion - so in some sense, we should think of Miko as an honorary member of GAMERS and Suisei as a honorary member of HoloForce, which considering her early relationship with Kanata and Coco, might as well be true from a different perspective.
Another push regarding this idolization was the opening of a male branch called Holostars. First talents started appearing in June, with Hanasaki Miyabi on June 8, 2019, Kagami Kira on June 9, 2019, Kanade Izuru on June 22, 2019.
Hololive also started to look beyond Japan, which was largely locked by the immense success of Nijisanji, and Hololive looked towards China. Around late winter and early spring of 2019, Hololive member started to stream quite a bit in BiliBili and started to take in a lot of Chinese sponsors, culminating in the Azur Lane event, which was one of the seeds for their future in North America - indeed many of the early English clippers were Chinese...
It was at this point that Hololive went looking for its third Gen, which had a fantasy theme - Usada Pekora debuted on July 17, 2019, Uruha Rushia on July 18, 2019, Shiranui Flare on August 7, 2019, Shirogane Noel on August 8, 2019, and Houshou Marine on August 11, 2019.
Many consider this group to be the miracle group, but they were kind of isolated for the first few months, many of their streams consisting of group Minecraft sessions. It was a friendship forged from pressure, not a loose one like GAMERS, and it gave a different feeling than the rest. Even today, there is an odd break between 3rd Gen and the gens higher up, except for a couple important exceptions like Aqua-Marine, or Marine in general. Subaru-Noel came out much later, and before that it was actually Rushia-Subaru.
Azur Lane event was on November 26, 2019. During this time, Hololive also opened their ill-fated Chinese branch with Yogiri debuting on September 28, 2019, Civia on November 2, 2019, and Spade Echo on January 30, 2020.
There was kind of an add-on group with Takushiji Suzaku debuting on September 7, 2019, and Arurandeisu on September 8, 2019. Suzaku apparently was really fed up with how Holostars worked so he left early on March 6, 2020. Second Gen followed with Rikkaroid debuting on October 20, 2019, and Astel Leda debuting on December 7, 2019, Kishido Temma on December 14, 2019, and Yukoku Roberu on December 24, 2019. Note this division feels wildly off, with the intra-gen gap being larger than the inter-gen gap. Perhaps this is one of the reasons the first three gens are usually grouped into one super group.
This nicely segues to our next section...
Spearheaded by this new leader, Hololive slowly gain prominence right as the pandemic hit and the Second Boom occurred as Western anime fans looked to VTuber as a replacement for all the delayed anime releases. Hololive was well positioned to take on this second boom, as there were more clips from Hololive... even though Nijisanji pursued a Chinese audiences like Hololive, the Nijisanji clippers were usually Japanese students and therefore preferred longer clips, while Hololive clippers were people bred from things like TikTok and they truly clipped like a fame-chasing clipper would, short condensation of the streamer's character. A very easy and addicting introduction.
There was also the fact that Cover knew their western outreach and also saw the success of people like Hana Macchia, and they decided to slowly branch out to Western audiences, starting with Indonesia, which was also a safe second options since the days of AKB48.
Area15 debuted April 10, 2020 for Ayunda Risu, April 11, 2020 for Moona Hoshinova, and April 12, 2020 for Airani Iofifteen. While their growth was paltry compared to their JP counterparts, they were on the higher side compared to their ID peers, so Cover saw the green light to go ahead and continue developing an western EN branch.
Also Hololive China debuted their 2nd Gen with Doris debuting on April 3, 2020, Rosalyn debuting on April 5, 2020, and Artia debuting on April 11, 2020. Holostar 3rd Gen also debut around this time with Tsukishita Kaoru debuting on April 29, 2020, Kageyama Shien on April 30, 2020, and Aragami Oga on May 1, 2020.
Those three groups tended to stick together, which HoloID had a close relationship with Holostars which would turn out to be fruitful much later in the process.
Hololive started to gain its rapid growth, and as with all rapid growth, there were some growing pains, a large numbers of archives had to be taken down due to increase in copyright notices and Hololive increasingly became isolated from the VTuber world as a whole.
Also, pretty much the rest of HoloForce was struggling. Towa's low voice and her boyfriend fracas, happening since the idol concept has been firmly placed and heavily sold to western audiences, meant Towa lost pretty much all momentum. Watame had her infamous kuso internet which she famously did not apologize for, therefore forever becoming blameless. Luna was a controversial choice as she was a former Nijisanji Liver and kind of known as a vagabond, jumping from agency to agency, but thankfully she found her home in Hololive.
Kanata, even though her hearing was going, managed to stand with a budding relationship with Coco and furthered her relationship with Suisei, who she knew from way before.
Except for Coco, this was a quiet time. Many of the talents were on rest, like Mel or Akirose, which is one of the main reasons they are so far behind, and there was less outside appearance as the company simply tried to wade through their newfound fame.
HoloFive eventually appeared - Yukihana Lamy on August 12, 2020, Momosuzu Nene on August 13, 2020, Shishiro Botan on August 14, 2020, Mano Aloe on August 15, 2020, and Omaru Polka on August 16, 2020. Mano Aloe were swept in a huge scandal and prompt graduated at the end of the month. Considering HoloFive had a long gestation period, even this short stint was a shock to many. Truth be told, Aloe was not in a great mental state, she later attempted suicide falling down several stories, only to be saved by a tree.
There are still people who like to imagine a world with Aloe, but I wonder of a world where the person behind Aloe was swapped with someone from HoloX. Aloe would have been fine by late 2021, and many of the talents from HoloX would have been more than adequate in August of 2020. I think the best switch would be with Chloe.
Even though technically in the next era, Haato-Coco Taiwan Incident would be the final of the three major controversies that rocked Cover as they restructured. Taiwan Incident basically killed off all chances of development in China, along with a separate fiasco that led to the closure of HoloCN with all six members quietly disappearing by the end of 2020.
With all these controversies, Hololive could have gone down in flames, but there was a saving grace or really multiple saving grace that effectively created a shift and an opportunity.
The minecraft server, largely dormant since the beginning of 2020, reopened with the introduction of Gen 5 and continued when Area15 were introduced, with Moona Hoshinova pretty much alighting the Company Rivalry Arc which became the basis for the modern dynamic of Hololive as we know today. The fame of Area15 skyrocketed, the combo of Risu's first NNN and her KING cover didn't detract from that fame at all either...
And their newfound dominance in ID was sealed with the debut of HoloRo - Kureiji Ollie on December 4, 2020, Anya Melfissa on December 5, 2020, and Pavolia Reine on December 6, 2020. Once again, they were heavily focused on outreach with Ollie being the breakout star which sapped any remaining momentum NijiID had, leading to their long and terminal decline for the next three years at least.
Those early months of 2021, defined by the time between Hololive 2nd Fes, Beyond the Stage, and Bloom, Hololive's first original concert, was in my humble opinion, the greatest time in Hololive. The development of the Company Rivalry Arc with the first extended interaction of MiComet, one of the most enduring duos in Hololive much to the chagrin of Nousagis and Heimins. The 2021 Mario Kart Tournament, which brought Towa into prominence and showcased that Hololive can pull off a tournament, one of the major strengths of Nijisanji and the Bouquet album's relative success, especially with the opening song Blue Clapper was instrumental in Hololive becoming a reliable music producer, which left Innonaka without an identity leading to AZKi eventually joining Hololive proper in April 1, 2022.
Another development was the introduction of Hololive Alternative, which was marked by two PVs, first of which debuted on May 5, 2021 with a teaser right after Bloom.
Days after Bloom however were colored by one event, which marks the finality in this era. There hasn't a large graduation - Holostars lost two members Tsukishita Kaoru on July 28, 2020 and Kagami Kira on November 30, 2020... but it was a quiet one, most might only recognize those graduations because of the downed spirit of HoloID at the time. But the graduation to come was the big one - probably the biggest one until Kizuna Ai's hiatus and many would argue even still then, as the age of Kiryu Coco came to close.
The announcement was on June 9, but in hindsight the signs were there since the beginnings of the Hololive Summer Festival, which also marks the start of the end of the Company Arc. The later half of this era felt like a barrel racing towards that final moment. Most watched stream in VTuber stream, probably unlikely to be broken for a long time.
Coco was instrumental in steering the talent's directions, especially in turbulent times such as the year and half in which Coco existed on our screens. Without that sail, Cover and their talents had to go on their own and face whatever demons it may raise...
IRyS debuted on July 8, 2021. She was supposed to be part of a JP/EN collab VSinger group that were probably going to debut in Spring if there were enough applicants, but they were only able to fish one, and she came down (three times) to grace our screens and a month later on August 22, 2021, HoloCouncil made their debut - Tsukumo Sana, Ceres Fauna, Ouro Kronii, Nanashi Mumei, and Hakos Baelz. Less perfect than HoloMyth but still good, and very helpful as there was a Minecraft merger happening. As I explained above, Hololive had a hard time integrating their new members. For the longest time, I had a hard time differentiating 5th Gen because they would just hang out together and rarely with senpais, but the merger and the eagerness of HoloMyth to get fresh blood led one of the smoothest integrations.
This continued with HoloX - La+ Darknesss on November 26, 2021, Takane Lui on November 27, 2021, Hakui Koyori on November 28, 2021, Sakamata Chloe on November 29, 2021, and Kazama Iroha on November 30, 2021. My impression of them was shock, as with many, not only were given only a few hours notice, but it happened right after the infamous 3rd Gen Live. The relative failure of that live and the death of her beloved cat started a decline for one Uruha Rushia, whose aberrant behavior will eventually blow up three weeks before 3rdFes.
Rushia's termination also felt like a barrelling moment in hindsight, but I did not end this era on February 24, 2022, but on the 2nd Day of 3rd Fes, because I want to end on a high note and the 3D debuts of Area 15 and HoloMyth more than enough made up for the sudden loss and confusion of Uruha Rushia. While Rushia left on quite a sour note, Rushia still gets fondly remembered, especially by talents like Pekora and Fubuki... it's interesting.
I should also mention taht 3rd Fes, Link Your Wish, was first to be accompanied by an Expo, which was first done by Nijisanji back in early 2020, right before the pandemic.
The focus for these groups was a change, HoloID now looking inwards back towards Indonesia, marking the rise of homegrown groups like AKA Virtual, and Holostar's idolfication including the de-aging of Aruran. This was followed by a quiet but long integration of Hololive and Holostar, an informal but still significant, which culminates in the year-end concert.
There were quite a lot of concerts in this era, 2nd PV which was on June 11, 2022, the return of Hololive Summer along with the regular spate of summer celebration concerts, there was a kind of fatigue and there was no new debut in sight, at least for a while...
Tempus HQ was quite a turning point - Regisa Altare and Magni Dezmond debuted on July 22, 2022 and Axel Syrios and Noir Vesper debuted on July 23, 2022. Not only did it accelerated the interaction between Hololive and Holostars, but also the EN branches of Hololive and Nijisanji as well, which was a long time coming, considering it was over a year since NijiEN debuted.
Along with Tsukumo Sana's graduation on July 31, 2022, things kind of took a back seat in the fall season as the long preparation for 4th Fes was underway. There was a lull that was unfamiliar since the beginning of 2020 - a nice bookend to the EN boom, which was rapidly fading at this point. In hindsight, it was an appreciative one, or so I think at least.
There was one incredibly bright light and that was Kobo Kanaeru, who along with Hyakumantenbara Salome, was the biggest beneficiary of the Third General Boom, caused the end of COVID restrictions for most of the world. The third Boom was less significant than the first two, but it saw the surge of strong local ID and KR groups along with renewed interest in Japan, which benefitted both Hololive and Nijisanji.
Kobo's obstinately Indonesian nature gave me worry as for integration but I wasn't to be worried because Kobo has quite a sharp wit behind her genuinely childish behavior. Kobo will be remembered for her various connections reaching across all branches, pretty much.
This was good grounds for Kobo. After Our Bright Parade, there was both a lull and an uptick. There was a lot happening - a new studio and an amusement park takeover - but a strange lack of debuts from any branches. One of the longest lack of such, I believe ever.
This might change soon, however, and that's where all our story has to end. I will fill in the rest of the story at the end of this period. And hopefully, I can come back to fill in the next era.
submitted by haberdashcollect to u/haberdashcollect [link] [comments]
While I was writing the regular State of VTuber World post, I wrote a massive tangent detailing Hololive's history, and decided it would be much better done as a separate post.
I was actually going to overwrite the previous version, but the previous version is too... old, so I thought I would just write a new one. Hopefully I'll update this in September, which would be the end of the current period, and then probably put out Ver. 3 a long time after, if that ever happens.
The history of Hololive are split into 9-ish month chunks.
Part 1 - Pre-History {17-09-07 - 18-06-01}
When Tokino Sora first went on NicoNico in the auspicious day of September 7, 2017, there were famously 13 viewers unaccounted for in her debut stream. VTuber as a modern concept started ten months ago with the advent of Kizuna Ai on December 1, and at that point VTubers as a concept was seriously considered a dead end. The Ai's initial hype train died down and newcomers such as Siro did not gain the success that people were hoping for. Many suspect this VTuber fad was going to be consigned into the dustbin of history much like disco and leg warmers.So, Sora did not start with the most fortuitous occasions. But the luck for VTuber and Sora turned around as Kaguya Luna became the new hit star and ushered in a kind of Cambrian Explosion of VTuber at the time. One of the bigger innovations was that Luna frequently mentioned other VTubers, she coined the term Oyabun for Kizuna Ai, and therefore there was a genuine sense of community building around this newfangled tech. Hololive App went online of December 21, 2017.
Sora was one of the bigger beneficiaries as she was redirected by Siro after her Christmas stream failed to work. Sora started to gain subscribers at a pretty good clip at that point. Sora is sometimes mentioned as one of the secondary heavenly kings along with Fuji Aoi, her close friend to this day.
Cover debuted their second talent, Roboco-san, on March 4, 2018. Roboco was the demo model for the Hololive app, similar to the beginnings of Nijisanji with 1st Gen's model also being a demo. Nijisanji was and is and will be a foil to Hololive. They both started as an app but quickly pivoted to the entertainment industry. Nijisanji's 1st Gen was a revolution - and singlehandedly shifted the meta in a way that will never be done before. And Nijisanji were pumping out great talents every month or so, flooding the market, which further threatened the other companies.
Nijisanji prompted fierce response from the competitor. AppLand, the company responsible for Siro, decided to debut 9 new talents that will operate on a strict weekly schedule, and this approach worked very well. Cover had to respond in turn, and so they quickly debuted 6 new talents, first being Yozora Mel who debuted on May 13, 2018.
Part 2 - Early Classical Era {18-06-01 - 19-04-01}
Note this version will not be delving too deeply into the individual members, as they are nicely detailed in Version One. If you want to know what the talents in the agency are all about, then check the previous version which is the top link. This version mostly expands and clarifies things.First Gen of Hololive - Aki Rosenthal, Natsuiro Matsuri, Shirakami Fubuki - debuted on June 1, 2018 with Akai Haato debuting a week later because she had some tech issues. There was one other person but we do not talk about this person, she basically bribed her way into debut, and after that incident Yozora Mel was folded into this 1st Gen. A recent observation - there is a hidden theme in early VTuber groups, for example Re:AcT was originally called Kageyaki Stars and their talents all had a Zodiac theme, Leona being the Leo, of course, and Kyo being... a virgin? Not sure, actually. This Gen also has a theme, reference much later in the title for their song Plasmagic Seasons, which is of course the Seasons - Akai Haato as Spring, Natsuiro Matsuri as Summer, Aki Rosenthal as Fall, and Shirakami Fubuki as Winter. That extra person really did not fit, especially with the above theme.
Second Gen of Hololive quickly followed, the debut was more spaced out this time. Minato Aqua went first on August 8, 2018, followed by Murasaki Shion on August 17, 2018, Nakiri Ayame was next on September 3, 2018, followed by Yuzuki Choco on September 4, 2018, and Oozora Subaru rounding out the crew debuting on September 14, 2018. Around the same time, on August 1, 2018, another Cover Project launched called Sakura Miko project, which was a return of Kizuna Ai style content.
This odd collection signifies the attitudes of this time, no one really knew what they were doing. There were not many collabs, in fact Hololive members tended to collab with Nijisanji members more than their own members, and many kind of considered Hololive to be kind of a sister group to Nijisanji. Again, the contents were kind of halfway between video and streams, there weren't really long streams, those that did famously Kanae and Korone, were seen as odd outliers. There were a lot of odd and interesting VTuber-industry projects - a fun thing is to watch PL's of future talents interacting with their future workmates, which is obscenely entertaining in some respects.
Sakura Miko project immediately crashed and burned and Miko joined Hololive proper on December 25, 2018. On November 15, AZKi debuted as a part of a collaboration with Cover and upd8, another agency that was progenitor of Kizuna Ai. upd8 ran things differently, it was a 'talent' agency and not a creative one, which meant upd8 did not hold onto any assets of livers. upd8 had a hodgepodge of creators, including one half of 774 inc., which meant AZKi, Inaba Haneru, Patra Suou and Kizuna Ai were technically part of the same agency at this point in November 2018. Oh Shibuya Hal and Utai Meika was also part of this group. Yep, upd8 was a mess, had potential though.
On December 12, 2018, Ookami Mio joined Hololive as part of a new project called Hololive GAMERS, and unlike their other projects GAMERS actually grew a few months later.
Part 3 - Late Classical Era {19-04-01 - 19-12-27}
Okayu and Korone were announced on April Fools 2019 and subsequently Nekomata Okayu debuted April 6, 2019 and Inugami Korone on April 13, 2019. Korone's stream was so scuffed that it became the anti-basis for future debut streams. But the GAMERS basically set the tone of Hololive as a company. GAMERS were basically scouted as Fubuki's friends, and therefore GAMERS were the first generations that felt like a group of friends. Most, if not all, relationships between people grew from this seed.They still regularly collabed with Nijisanji at that point. One can go through what is now seemingly bizarre combos - Higuchi Kaede and Roboco, Nakiri Ayame and Inui Toko, and so on... although few still persist to this day, Kamioka Family and its extension NASS and Oozora Family being the two...
But this was the time that Hololive kind of found the identity that we were kind of familiar with. This was also the time that idolization was slowly making its way through the company. The well-remember first Hololive Summer (which was, and still is, a Comiket associated project) was the first time Shiny Smily Story was introduced with the full song being released on September 17, 2019, which led to Hololive 1stFes or Nonstop Story on January 28, 2020.
Hololive extended the relationship with upd8 regarding AZKi to be Innoaka Music and they eventually snagged an indie VTuber named Hoshimachi Suisei, who has been active since March 22, 2018, during the height of the First Boom, announcing this new venture on May 19, 2019. Hoshimachi Suisei was frustrated with the arrangement and joined Hololive proper on December 1, 2019. The inclusion date is more mutely celebrated but their growth more closely tracks with the counterparts who debuting around their inclusion - so in some sense, we should think of Miko as an honorary member of GAMERS and Suisei as a honorary member of HoloForce, which considering her early relationship with Kanata and Coco, might as well be true from a different perspective.
Another push regarding this idolization was the opening of a male branch called Holostars. First talents started appearing in June, with Hanasaki Miyabi on June 8, 2019, Kagami Kira on June 9, 2019, Kanade Izuru on June 22, 2019.
Hololive also started to look beyond Japan, which was largely locked by the immense success of Nijisanji, and Hololive looked towards China. Around late winter and early spring of 2019, Hololive member started to stream quite a bit in BiliBili and started to take in a lot of Chinese sponsors, culminating in the Azur Lane event, which was one of the seeds for their future in North America - indeed many of the early English clippers were Chinese...
It was at this point that Hololive went looking for its third Gen, which had a fantasy theme - Usada Pekora debuted on July 17, 2019, Uruha Rushia on July 18, 2019, Shiranui Flare on August 7, 2019, Shirogane Noel on August 8, 2019, and Houshou Marine on August 11, 2019.
Many consider this group to be the miracle group, but they were kind of isolated for the first few months, many of their streams consisting of group Minecraft sessions. It was a friendship forged from pressure, not a loose one like GAMERS, and it gave a different feeling than the rest. Even today, there is an odd break between 3rd Gen and the gens higher up, except for a couple important exceptions like Aqua-Marine, or Marine in general. Subaru-Noel came out much later, and before that it was actually Rushia-Subaru.
Azur Lane event was on November 26, 2019. During this time, Hololive also opened their ill-fated Chinese branch with Yogiri debuting on September 28, 2019, Civia on November 2, 2019, and Spade Echo on January 30, 2020.
There was kind of an add-on group with Takushiji Suzaku debuting on September 7, 2019, and Arurandeisu on September 8, 2019. Suzaku apparently was really fed up with how Holostars worked so he left early on March 6, 2020. Second Gen followed with Rikkaroid debuting on October 20, 2019, and Astel Leda debuting on December 7, 2019, Kishido Temma on December 14, 2019, and Yukoku Roberu on December 24, 2019. Note this division feels wildly off, with the intra-gen gap being larger than the inter-gen gap. Perhaps this is one of the reasons the first three gens are usually grouped into one super group.
This nicely segues to our next section...
Part 3 - Early Golden Era {19-12-27 - 20-09-12}
HoloForce, as they are rarely called, were truly a force. Amane Kanata debuted on December 27, 2019, Kiryu Coco followed on December 28, 2019, Tsunomaki Watame on December 29, 2019, and after new years, Tokoyami Towa on January 3, 2020 and Himemori Luna on January 4, 2020. Kiryu Coco was an instant hit, growing at a rate seldom seen before.Spearheaded by this new leader, Hololive slowly gain prominence right as the pandemic hit and the Second Boom occurred as Western anime fans looked to VTuber as a replacement for all the delayed anime releases. Hololive was well positioned to take on this second boom, as there were more clips from Hololive... even though Nijisanji pursued a Chinese audiences like Hololive, the Nijisanji clippers were usually Japanese students and therefore preferred longer clips, while Hololive clippers were people bred from things like TikTok and they truly clipped like a fame-chasing clipper would, short condensation of the streamer's character. A very easy and addicting introduction.
There was also the fact that Cover knew their western outreach and also saw the success of people like Hana Macchia, and they decided to slowly branch out to Western audiences, starting with Indonesia, which was also a safe second options since the days of AKB48.
Area15 debuted April 10, 2020 for Ayunda Risu, April 11, 2020 for Moona Hoshinova, and April 12, 2020 for Airani Iofifteen. While their growth was paltry compared to their JP counterparts, they were on the higher side compared to their ID peers, so Cover saw the green light to go ahead and continue developing an western EN branch.
Also Hololive China debuted their 2nd Gen with Doris debuting on April 3, 2020, Rosalyn debuting on April 5, 2020, and Artia debuting on April 11, 2020. Holostar 3rd Gen also debut around this time with Tsukishita Kaoru debuting on April 29, 2020, Kageyama Shien on April 30, 2020, and Aragami Oga on May 1, 2020.
Those three groups tended to stick together, which HoloID had a close relationship with Holostars which would turn out to be fruitful much later in the process.
Hololive started to gain its rapid growth, and as with all rapid growth, there were some growing pains, a large numbers of archives had to be taken down due to increase in copyright notices and Hololive increasingly became isolated from the VTuber world as a whole.
Also, pretty much the rest of HoloForce was struggling. Towa's low voice and her boyfriend fracas, happening since the idol concept has been firmly placed and heavily sold to western audiences, meant Towa lost pretty much all momentum. Watame had her infamous kuso internet which she famously did not apologize for, therefore forever becoming blameless. Luna was a controversial choice as she was a former Nijisanji Liver and kind of known as a vagabond, jumping from agency to agency, but thankfully she found her home in Hololive.
Kanata, even though her hearing was going, managed to stand with a budding relationship with Coco and furthered her relationship with Suisei, who she knew from way before.
Except for Coco, this was a quiet time. Many of the talents were on rest, like Mel or Akirose, which is one of the main reasons they are so far behind, and there was less outside appearance as the company simply tried to wade through their newfound fame.
HoloFive eventually appeared - Yukihana Lamy on August 12, 2020, Momosuzu Nene on August 13, 2020, Shishiro Botan on August 14, 2020, Mano Aloe on August 15, 2020, and Omaru Polka on August 16, 2020. Mano Aloe were swept in a huge scandal and prompt graduated at the end of the month. Considering HoloFive had a long gestation period, even this short stint was a shock to many. Truth be told, Aloe was not in a great mental state, she later attempted suicide falling down several stories, only to be saved by a tree.
There are still people who like to imagine a world with Aloe, but I wonder of a world where the person behind Aloe was swapped with someone from HoloX. Aloe would have been fine by late 2021, and many of the talents from HoloX would have been more than adequate in August of 2020. I think the best switch would be with Chloe.
Even though technically in the next era, Haato-Coco Taiwan Incident would be the final of the three major controversies that rocked Cover as they restructured. Taiwan Incident basically killed off all chances of development in China, along with a separate fiasco that led to the closure of HoloCN with all six members quietly disappearing by the end of 2020.
With all these controversies, Hololive could have gone down in flames, but there was a saving grace or really multiple saving grace that effectively created a shift and an opportunity.
Part 4 - Late Golden Era {20-09-12 - 21-07-01}
HoloMyth arrived on September 12, 2020 for Mori Calliope, Takanashi Kiara and September 13, 2020 for Ninomae Ina'ins, Gawr Gura and Amelia Watson. They were another of the 'perfect' groups, a heaven-sent in the time of multiple disasters.The minecraft server, largely dormant since the beginning of 2020, reopened with the introduction of Gen 5 and continued when Area15 were introduced, with Moona Hoshinova pretty much alighting the Company Rivalry Arc which became the basis for the modern dynamic of Hololive as we know today. The fame of Area15 skyrocketed, the combo of Risu's first NNN and her KING cover didn't detract from that fame at all either...
And their newfound dominance in ID was sealed with the debut of HoloRo - Kureiji Ollie on December 4, 2020, Anya Melfissa on December 5, 2020, and Pavolia Reine on December 6, 2020. Once again, they were heavily focused on outreach with Ollie being the breakout star which sapped any remaining momentum NijiID had, leading to their long and terminal decline for the next three years at least.
Those early months of 2021, defined by the time between Hololive 2nd Fes, Beyond the Stage, and Bloom, Hololive's first original concert, was in my humble opinion, the greatest time in Hololive. The development of the Company Rivalry Arc with the first extended interaction of MiComet, one of the most enduring duos in Hololive much to the chagrin of Nousagis and Heimins. The 2021 Mario Kart Tournament, which brought Towa into prominence and showcased that Hololive can pull off a tournament, one of the major strengths of Nijisanji and the Bouquet album's relative success, especially with the opening song Blue Clapper was instrumental in Hololive becoming a reliable music producer, which left Innonaka without an identity leading to AZKi eventually joining Hololive proper in April 1, 2022.
Another development was the introduction of Hololive Alternative, which was marked by two PVs, first of which debuted on May 5, 2021 with a teaser right after Bloom.
Days after Bloom however were colored by one event, which marks the finality in this era. There hasn't a large graduation - Holostars lost two members Tsukishita Kaoru on July 28, 2020 and Kagami Kira on November 30, 2020... but it was a quiet one, most might only recognize those graduations because of the downed spirit of HoloID at the time. But the graduation to come was the big one - probably the biggest one until Kizuna Ai's hiatus and many would argue even still then, as the age of Kiryu Coco came to close.
The announcement was on June 9, but in hindsight the signs were there since the beginnings of the Hololive Summer Festival, which also marks the start of the end of the Company Arc. The later half of this era felt like a barrel racing towards that final moment. Most watched stream in VTuber stream, probably unlikely to be broken for a long time.
Coco was instrumental in steering the talent's directions, especially in turbulent times such as the year and half in which Coco existed on our screens. Without that sail, Cover and their talents had to go on their own and face whatever demons it may raise...
Part 5 - The Transition Era {21-07-01 - 22-03-20}
Hololive was chugging around after the graduation with 3D Live happening almost every other day during August... and also quite a lot of debuts from the EN side.IRyS debuted on July 8, 2021. She was supposed to be part of a JP/EN collab VSinger group that were probably going to debut in Spring if there were enough applicants, but they were only able to fish one, and she came down (three times) to grace our screens and a month later on August 22, 2021, HoloCouncil made their debut - Tsukumo Sana, Ceres Fauna, Ouro Kronii, Nanashi Mumei, and Hakos Baelz. Less perfect than HoloMyth but still good, and very helpful as there was a Minecraft merger happening. As I explained above, Hololive had a hard time integrating their new members. For the longest time, I had a hard time differentiating 5th Gen because they would just hang out together and rarely with senpais, but the merger and the eagerness of HoloMyth to get fresh blood led one of the smoothest integrations.
This continued with HoloX - La+ Darknesss on November 26, 2021, Takane Lui on November 27, 2021, Hakui Koyori on November 28, 2021, Sakamata Chloe on November 29, 2021, and Kazama Iroha on November 30, 2021. My impression of them was shock, as with many, not only were given only a few hours notice, but it happened right after the infamous 3rd Gen Live. The relative failure of that live and the death of her beloved cat started a decline for one Uruha Rushia, whose aberrant behavior will eventually blow up three weeks before 3rdFes.
Rushia's termination also felt like a barrelling moment in hindsight, but I did not end this era on February 24, 2022, but on the 2nd Day of 3rd Fes, because I want to end on a high note and the 3D debuts of Area 15 and HoloMyth more than enough made up for the sudden loss and confusion of Uruha Rushia. While Rushia left on quite a sour note, Rushia still gets fondly remembered, especially by talents like Pekora and Fubuki... it's interesting.
I should also mention taht 3rd Fes, Link Your Wish, was first to be accompanied by an Expo, which was first done by Nijisanji back in early 2020, right before the pandemic.
Part 6 - Early Modern Era {22-03-20 - 22-12-31}
End of 3rd Fes led to two debuts - first HoloH3roes with Vestia Zeta on March 27, 2022, Kaela Kovalskia on March 28, 2022, and Kobo Kanaeru on March 29, 2022, followed by Holostar's UPROAR with Yatogami Fuma and Utsugi Uyu debuting on March 29, 2022 and Hizaki Gamma and Minase Rio debuting on March 30, 2022.The focus for these groups was a change, HoloID now looking inwards back towards Indonesia, marking the rise of homegrown groups like AKA Virtual, and Holostar's idolfication including the de-aging of Aruran. This was followed by a quiet but long integration of Hololive and Holostar, an informal but still significant, which culminates in the year-end concert.
There were quite a lot of concerts in this era, 2nd PV which was on June 11, 2022, the return of Hololive Summer along with the regular spate of summer celebration concerts, there was a kind of fatigue and there was no new debut in sight, at least for a while...
Tempus HQ was quite a turning point - Regisa Altare and Magni Dezmond debuted on July 22, 2022 and Axel Syrios and Noir Vesper debuted on July 23, 2022. Not only did it accelerated the interaction between Hololive and Holostars, but also the EN branches of Hololive and Nijisanji as well, which was a long time coming, considering it was over a year since NijiEN debuted.
Along with Tsukumo Sana's graduation on July 31, 2022, things kind of took a back seat in the fall season as the long preparation for 4th Fes was underway. There was a lull that was unfamiliar since the beginning of 2020 - a nice bookend to the EN boom, which was rapidly fading at this point. In hindsight, it was an appreciative one, or so I think at least.
There was one incredibly bright light and that was Kobo Kanaeru, who along with Hyakumantenbara Salome, was the biggest beneficiary of the Third General Boom, caused the end of COVID restrictions for most of the world. The third Boom was less significant than the first two, but it saw the surge of strong local ID and KR groups along with renewed interest in Japan, which benefitted both Hololive and Nijisanji.
Kobo's obstinately Indonesian nature gave me worry as for integration but I wasn't to be worried because Kobo has quite a sharp wit behind her genuinely childish behavior. Kobo will be remembered for her various connections reaching across all branches, pretty much.
Part 7 - Late Modern Era {22-12-31 - 23-09-??}
The year-end concert served as a teaser for Our Bright Parade, which happened on March 18 and March 19, 2023. There was also an extension for Hololive Tempus, with its VG division - Gavis Bettel and Machina X Flayon debuting on January 7, 2023 and Banzoin Hakka and Josuiji Shinri debuting January 8, 2023. It was an understandable yet odd debut and I think VG was one of the most 'Nijisanji' groups in Hololive I have ever seen.This was good grounds for Kobo. After Our Bright Parade, there was both a lull and an uptick. There was a lot happening - a new studio and an amusement park takeover - but a strange lack of debuts from any branches. One of the longest lack of such, I believe ever.
This might change soon, however, and that's where all our story has to end. I will fill in the rest of the story at the end of this period. And hopefully, I can come back to fill in the next era.
2023.06.03 11:54 speroc BTS, mistranslation, and our responsibility as consumers of foreign media. Any examples of commonly perpetuated mistranslation/misunderstanding?
 | DISCLAIMER: I was born to Korean parents, and lived there for about a year or so when I was young, but I was raised in an English-speaking country. My Korean is nowhere near perfect (it's pretty tragic, actually. My reading and writing skill, especially) but I'm exposed to it enough that I have rough understanding of the spoken language. I also have a mild interest in languages, linguistics, and grammar in general :) But please call me out if I make any mistakes here, and I'll edit my post. submitted by speroc to bangtan [link] [comments] I'm writing this because I want to help re-emphasise the dangers of irresponsibly consuming foreign media, and how mistranslations or cultural misunderstandings can misrepresent reality. Especially for such high-profile celebrities such as BTS or other idols with such massive fanbases! I was watching kpop videos just now, and pointed out some misinterpretations that I came across. EXAMPLE 1: mistranslation, or language-based misinterpretation^ it's so easy to wrongly project our own assumptions on others if we're relying on mistranslations. I noticed a lot of commenters were commenting on SUGA's \"savageness\" based on something he said that was mistranslated, when in the actual korean, he never said that at all. The stereotype or assumption that he is \"savage\"/direct/cold, while definitely true sometimes, can wrongly influence our interpretation of something he does.https://preview.redd.it/22vrd6v0gr3b1.png?width=1576&format=png&auto=webp&s=f27554e2354b838c6da9e750871091202af29df7 ^ this was a yoongi calling jin \"hyung\" compilation somewhere, where a lot of comments were commenting how cute it was that he said \"hyungie\" (^not me, but another youtube user) Of course, if you don't speak a certain language, it's almost impossible to be aware of these nuances. I don't want to blame anyone for things they can't help because they just simply don't know. In the second case regarding "hyungie", there's basically no way a non-korean speaker would be able to differentiate between adding -ie as an ending to a proper noun to make it sound cute "jiminie~", vs. -i as a normal noun ending "But [I thought]* jimin already did that?"/"jimini beolsseo hetnendae?"/지민이 벌써 했는데? *doesn't actually exist in the korean, added to make the english more idiomatic and translate the general feeling [if anyone actually knows how to grammatically define -i/-이, please do... all I can describe it as is a noun ending, lol, kind of similar to -은 or -는, that has the vibe of "so and so DID this/SAID this/etc." in the past tense??? idk] 형이 or "hyungie" in the cute sense rather than as a noun ending, as far as I know, doesn't exist, or it's very uncommon at the very least. It's an English misinterpretation of Korean syntax (see the last screenshot). It sounds cute if you look at Korean though English-coloured glasses, basically. My point is that it's so easy for things to be misunderstood without even being aware of it! Even seemingly harmless or small mistakes can escalate into complete misrepresentations. It's our responsibility as consumers of media to fact-check, avoid jumping to conclusions, avoid blindly following popular opinion, and avoid unfounded speculation, but as consumers of FOREIGN media, it's especially important. Linguistic differences, cultural differences, and mistranslations can distort the original tone or meaning of something. EXAMPLE 2: cultural misinterpretationIt's very common and normalised for Koreans (and I believe in other Asian countries) to comment on appearance and weight. "hey, you gained weight/lost weight!" While it could be meant negatively, it can also carry a positive connotation, especially if you're close with them: "you look healthy, you must be eating well/feeling better!" < you would hear this from older relatives, "You're too skinny, you need to take better care of yourself! Are you sick? Are you stressed?" It all depends on the context. In Western countries it would be absolutely taboo and shocking to comment on weight, however. (not that i'm defending the cultural obsession with appearance in Korea. It's bad. I know firsthand how this has affected some people that I know. I'm not saying that it's good, just that it's very normalised, not taboo, and usually not meant to be offensive.)https://youtube.com/shorts/J_mGvqVqzTk?feature=share 🐰: 쫌 뽀송뽀송 한데~ 찜빵같아! you're a little fluffy/soft~ like a steamed bun! 🐱: 왜 이렇게 뚱뚱하냐, 그때? why was I so fat* back then? *I chose to translate 뚱뚱하다 as "fat" because I think it's the most accurate. You could use 뚱뚱하다 in an offensive way, same as "fat" in English. Chubby also works, but I wanted to translate it in a way that's more likely to be construed as negative in English to illustrate my point. ^in korean, this reads as affectionate and normal. Yoongi's comment about himself is a little self-derogatory, but it's very normal. Nobody would bat an eye at this in Korea. Through a Western lens, however, this could be read as incredibly offensive and problematic. You could read into it as BTS perpetuating unhealthy/toxic weight culture, fatshaming, etc. which may be true to some extent, but it's a CULTURAL issue, not a problem with the individuals themselves. This reads as a perfectly normal exchange in Korean, but in English, it already sounds kind of jarring and offensive. It's not that something is completely wrong/right, it's how something can be interpreted according to very different cultural norms. also see: https://www.reddit.com/koreanvariety/comments/kel655/is_it_more_acceptable_to_comment_on_a_womans/) TRANSLATORS HAVE IMMENSE RESPONSIBILITY!!International army are always subject to translation. Accurate, nuanced, and respectful translation is so, so important, because for a lot of people, the translated representation is the only representation we have access to. If you make youtube edits, or videos, or translate songs, your version of events might be the only version someone sees.- We have a responsibility to be aware that mistranslations and misinterpretations exist. Often, multiple translations/edits of the same event exist. Does one stick out as feeling off compared to the others? (see the second screenshot). Or do all the different translations seem to match up with one another? cross-check sources! Is this an official translation or a fan translation? - If you're a native speaker or know some of the language, it's important to call out these errors or possible misinterpretations whenever we can, in a respectful way. - but also know when you have the authority to challenge something! If you've learned a language for... like... a week, and know nothing about the culture, blindly trying to correct stuff is also misinterpretation. Nobody's perfect, but we owe it to BTS, idols, and other foreign celebrities to do our best to be well-informed and respectful. It's often pointed out how much richer the meaning of some of BTS' songs become if you understand the cultural nuances behind what they say or write, whether it be clever wordplay or clever references or just an untranslatable ~vibe~ to their words. RM especially is the king of this! His lyrics in wild flowe들꽃놀이 straight up read like poetry, dear god. BTS - DDAENG Explained by a Korean BTS - IDOL Explained by a Korean But we have to be aware that it goes the other way, too. Excellent translation/analysis can be the gateway to seeing the same words in a completely new light. Other times, mistranslation can make it so you only have access to a sliver of the whole picture. Sorry for the ramble :) if anyone has any other examples of common mistranslations or misunderstandings that are popular in the fandom it would be cool to try and debunk them! Thanks for reading, and I hope my broken Korean pulled through, lmao. you don't wanna know how wrong my spelling was before I triple-checked stuff on google translate ;~; shame to my ancestors |
2023.06.03 09:56 IronReep3r [Program Review] Super Squat
Since I have been asked several times about the program Super Squat, as well as pushing it pretty hard to trainees struggling to gain weight and size; So here is a write-up of my run of Super Squats earlier this year. Enjoy my torture.
I just finished up 6 weeks of Super Squat, as a part of Gainit's Program Party, as well as my mass-block of training. Previously I have done 9 weeks of 531 Beefcake and 9 weeks of Building the Monolith.This post is a summary of my results and lessons learned from my run of Super Squat (SS). I am (still) a 32-year-old male, with a full-time job in the Navy and a family including two kids. Having a family means I cant afford to train for hours on end, so I afford no more than around 1 hour in the gym at a time.
The program
Super squat is a mass-building program written by Randal J. Strossen in his book Super Squat. The basic of the program is you make a weight you'd normally squat for 10 reps, and do 20 reps with it, by taking at least three deep breaths between each reps. This causes you to be under the bar for >2 minutes and signals your body to grow. He also suggest several other high rep compound movements to be used in conjunction with the breathing squats, but these movements are secondary to the breathing-squats.
I LP all exercises, increasing with 2.5 kg each session. I increased the weight if i at least managed 2/3 sets at the prescribed weight.
To try to keep time in the gym to under 1 hour, I employed the same tactics as during my 531 cycles, which is superset everything. My general layout became (warm-up sets not included):
Conditioning and Recovery
The author recommends that the trainee does nothing in between the sessions, except for eating. My experience from BtM told me that easy conditioning in between heavy sessions are key for recovery. I stuck to easy conditioning like airdyne, walking and cycling (not the fun anabolic type). I did some stretching and foam-rolling, but to be honest: 20 minutes on the airdyne is ten times better then 20 minutes rolling on a foam-roller. Other than that, see “diet”.
Diet
I continued following the diet from my run of Building the Monolith during Super Squat, only adding more milk, fruit and nuts every time I had issues recovering and/or gaining weight.
Meal 1: 6 eggs on toast, with ham.
Meal 2: Overnight oats with protein powder, Greek yogurt, berries, nuts, chia-seeds and honey.
Meal 3: 300 grams of meat (chicken, beef, etc.), rice/pasta and vegetables.
Snack: Protein-shake
Meal 4: Family dinner (approx 300 grams of meat, potatoes and vegetables)
Snack: Fruit and milk
Meal 5: 6 eggs on toast, with ham, cottage cheese and milk
How it went and Lessons learned
Week 1
My goal was getting 140 kg for 20 reps, but missed this goal by 5 kg. But regardless, these are my starting weights and what my best set were:
Last successful session, 20x135kg (20x300 freedom-units)
I have gained a significantly amount of muscle, especially in the legs and back. I now have few pants that actually fit me, and I am "wider" over the back, my arms grew as well. Of the three bulking programs I have ran these last months, SS has been the most effective, especially at butting size on the legs. I will run this again, aiming for that elusive 20x140 kg, but next time I will stay true to the books diet recommendations.
I would wholeheartedly recommend this program to all trainees looking to challenge themselves , both mental and physical, and especially to trainees struggling to gain weight and size. If you follow the book AS WRITTEN, you will gain weight, size and muscle.
submitted by IronReep3r to workout [link] [comments]
I just finished up 6 weeks of Super Squat, as a part of Gainit's Program Party, as well as my mass-block of training. Previously I have done 9 weeks of 531 Beefcake and 9 weeks of Building the Monolith.This post is a summary of my results and lessons learned from my run of Super Squat (SS). I am (still) a 32-year-old male, with a full-time job in the Navy and a family including two kids. Having a family means I cant afford to train for hours on end, so I afford no more than around 1 hour in the gym at a time.
The program
Super squat is a mass-building program written by Randal J. Strossen in his book Super Squat. The basic of the program is you make a weight you'd normally squat for 10 reps, and do 20 reps with it, by taking at least three deep breaths between each reps. This causes you to be under the bar for >2 minutes and signals your body to grow. He also suggest several other high rep compound movements to be used in conjunction with the breathing squats, but these movements are secondary to the breathing-squats.
I LP all exercises, increasing with 2.5 kg each session. I increased the weight if i at least managed 2/3 sets at the prescribed weight.
To try to keep time in the gym to under 1 hour, I employed the same tactics as during my 531 cycles, which is superset everything. My general layout became (warm-up sets not included):
- 3x10 Behind the Neck Press (seated) – 2x15 Barbell rows – 25 Crunches 3x12
- Bench Press – 2x10 Barbell curl 1x20
- Breathing Squats – 1x20 Pullover 1x15
- Straight Leg Deadlift – 1x20 Pullover – 3x20 Barbell Calf Raise
Conditioning and Recovery
The author recommends that the trainee does nothing in between the sessions, except for eating. My experience from BtM told me that easy conditioning in between heavy sessions are key for recovery. I stuck to easy conditioning like airdyne, walking and cycling (not the fun anabolic type). I did some stretching and foam-rolling, but to be honest: 20 minutes on the airdyne is ten times better then 20 minutes rolling on a foam-roller. Other than that, see “diet”.
Diet
I continued following the diet from my run of Building the Monolith during Super Squat, only adding more milk, fruit and nuts every time I had issues recovering and/or gaining weight.
Meal 1: 6 eggs on toast, with ham.
Meal 2: Overnight oats with protein powder, Greek yogurt, berries, nuts, chia-seeds and honey.
Meal 3: 300 grams of meat (chicken, beef, etc.), rice/pasta and vegetables.
Snack: Protein-shake
Meal 4: Family dinner (approx 300 grams of meat, potatoes and vegetables)
Snack: Fruit and milk
Meal 5: 6 eggs on toast, with ham, cottage cheese and milk
How it went and Lessons learned
Week 1
- The first week of SS I had do “dial” in the breathing squats. My first session I started out way to eager, eg. only breathing between every 2 reps, and trying to get the 20 rep set done quickly. The point is that time under the bar is what makes you grow, and you want the set to be agonizing.
- My second week, the breathing squats were dialed in and I did 2-3 deep breaths between each of the first ten reps, and after that I was basically breathing like a steam engine the last 10.
- Last session of week 2 was the first time I was nervous before the Squats, which were a really weird feeling. I knew that I was capable of squatting the weight for 20 reps, but I still had this lump in my throat.
- The way I get around the nervousness of getting under the bar is convincing myself that “this is something that has to be done”, like everything depends on me getting done with this set. It might be weird, but its what worked for me.
- The agony of 20 rep breathing squats continue. For me, its probably rep 10-15 which are the most mentally taxing. I was only half way at number 10, and now I still have 10 more (no end in sight). This is where you have to shut out everything else and just squat.
- Finding a “mantra” helps a lot when dealing with the last 10 reps. I found Jon Anderssons “burn the ships” from Deep Water to be great (Its an Alexander the Great quote... Look it up).
- After rep 15-16 on the squat, I could not feel my arms anymore. It is normal, just deal with it.
- Last session of the week (20x120 kg) I got one serious case of headache after completing the set.. My head was pounding several hours after the workout. This would continue on and of for the rest of the program, but a banana and some salts imidiatly after the squats did help.
- One of the “fun” things about working in the navy is the short notice 2-week exercises they trow at you. This meant I had to put SS on hold for two weeks, since there were no squat-racks in sight...
- Returning to SS two weeks later, I decided to just jump strait back in, and my first day back (20x125 kg) was by far the most mentally and physically taxing set by far. I started regretting all my life choices by rep 6...
- This week was also the first week I needed “help” keeping count. In my garage gym, I have 5 garage door-hinges, and I used them to keep count by moving my eyes to the next one each set. This was also a great way to push yourself, by always thinking: “I can at least get to the next hinge”.
- The injuries started to pile up by this week. Both my knees were hurting a lot, and shoulders had started “locking” up.
- Missed my first weight this week as well. Started off great, with a huge milestone of 20x130, but I just wouldn't seem to recover for the next session, missing 132.5 kg.
- This was probably due to under eating, which in turn made me doubt my ability to continue. Super Squat is as much a mental program as a physical one, and when you start doubting yourself, you start missing.
- This week continued in the same rut as week 5. I made an ugly 20x135 kg for my first session, but missed 140 kg twice, ending my Super Squat run on a sour note.
My goal was getting 140 kg for 20 reps, but missed this goal by 5 kg. But regardless, these are my starting weights and what my best set were:
| Start | End | |
|---|---|---|
| WeightSquatBehind the Neck PressRowBench PressCurlsRDLStanding Calf Raise | 99.5 kg20x100 kg10x30 kg15x60 kg12x60 kg10x30 kg15x50 kg20x40 kg | 105.1 kg20x135 kg, 13x140 kg10x47.5 kg12x80 kg12x80 kg10x47.5 kg15x120 kg20x65 kg |
I have gained a significantly amount of muscle, especially in the legs and back. I now have few pants that actually fit me, and I am "wider" over the back, my arms grew as well. Of the three bulking programs I have ran these last months, SS has been the most effective, especially at butting size on the legs. I will run this again, aiming for that elusive 20x140 kg, but next time I will stay true to the books diet recommendations.
I would wholeheartedly recommend this program to all trainees looking to challenge themselves , both mental and physical, and especially to trainees struggling to gain weight and size. If you follow the book AS WRITTEN, you will gain weight, size and muscle.
2023.06.03 09:28 BrownTown427 Booking Asuka's Current Raw Women's Title Reign
At Royal Rumble 2023, Asuka returned after a brief hiatus, sporting a deranged look reminiscent of her days as Kana. And since that point, the Empress of Tomorrow has solidified her powerful aura, winning the Elimination Chamber match and avenging her disappointing loss to Bianca at WrestleMania 39 by dethroning the EST at Night Of Champions. And while Asuka has been Raw Women’s Champion before, this time feels…different…
Monday Night Raw (5/29/23):
Following Night of Champions with the crowning of Asuka, it would appear the landscape of the women’s division has changed. While some individuals are surely eager to go after singles gold, this isn’t initially the case for the Way. In a backstage interview with Byron Saxton, Candice LeRae and Indi Hartwell express their desire to go after the Women’s Tag Team Titles, only to be interrupted by the lunatic duo of Chelsea Green and Sonya Deville. Deville tries to get under the skin of the pairing, particularly LeRae, mocking her struggles to get victories as of late. However, Candice retorts that Sonya and Chelsea haven’t done anything either, their only actual success as a duo being making Adam Pearce question his own sanity. After a few more moments of bickering, Green tries to slap LeRae, but Hartwell blocks it for her, shoving Chelsea to the ground. Sonya shoves Indi back, and Candice in-turn attacks Deville, forcing several officials to have to separate things.
This results in a singles match later in the evening between Deville and LeRae, with Sonya trying to make an example out of the “Poison Pixie”. It’s a fairly back-and-forth encounter, with LeRae starting the match off hot, but Sonya is able to adapt, using her MMA background to her advantage with increasingly strong shots. However, as Sonya gains control, her emotions also start to fluctuate a bit. Rather than just go for the win at points, she decides to inflict further damage, regularly targeting the right arm in particular with a combination of stomps and armbars. However, the turning point of the match comes when Deville kneels down, once again looking to apply some type of submission hold…only for LeRae to transition it into the Garga-No Escape! While Sonya doesn’t submit, it gives her enough breathing room to mount a comeback, eventually hitting her signature springboard moonsault to finish things.
Candice LeRae def. Sonya Deville via pinfall
After the match, Candice and Indi take a moment to celebrate the win…BUT HERE COMES ASUKA! The Raw Women’s Champion is in the building, and she looks as maniacal as ever. She makes her way towards LeRae…and offers a handshake? Candice is definitely hesitant to accept, and for good reason, as when she starts moving her hand out…ASUKA HITS HER WITH A ROUNDHOUSE KICK! Indi tries to avenge her downed partner, but Asuka takes her out with a spinning backfist. The Empress moves back towards LeRae, staring at the injured right arm…AND SHE APPLIES A VICIOUS ARMBAR, SNAPPING IT IN THE PROCESS! Asuka eventually lets go, with Johnny Gargano and a medical official coming out to tend to LeRae while Adam Pearce wants to know what’s wrong with Asuka…to which she merely replies with a sinister smile…
Monday Night Raw (6/5/23):
About half-way through the show, Johnny Gargano comes to the ring, ready to give an update on his wife Candice LeRae. He says that while LeRae is unable to compete, it’s only for a short period of time, and the fracture to her arm was small enough as to where she won’t require surgery. However, Gargano also says that LeRae wanted him to pass along a message…which is why he’s calling out Asuka to the ring! On cue, the Empress comes out, looking at Johnny Wrestling with a curious look. Gargano says that once upon a time, he and his wife both had respect for Asuka’s accomplishments, especially her record-setting run in NXT. However, with the actions of last week, they no longer have those sentiments, and when LeRae returns from this set-back, she’s challenging you for that Raw Women’s Title! As Gargano says this, Asuka just begins giving a deranged laugh. No one in the arena knows what to make of this…until Asuka picks up a mic…to simply say…bye bye…
As Asuka makes her way to the ring apron, Gargano is left staring in confusion at what transpired…but suddenly, the lights go out! When they turn back on…a trio of masked men are destroying Johnny Wrestling! He tries to fight back, but he’s just overpowered, and left to be stomped on as Asuka just watches on from ringside, enjoying the carnage. The biggest of the three hits Gargano with a top rope splash, before what appears to be the leader hits…a wheelbarrow neckbreaker. As the individual hits this, Asuka comes back into the ring, standing alongside the figures. She whispers something to them, and they move their hand to the top of the masks, pulling them off to reveal…IT’S SAnitY! Eric Young, Alexander Wolfe, and Killian Dain are all back in WWE, and it appears they’ve aligned themselves with the Empress of Tomorrow. But the question left to be answered… Where is Nikki Cross in all of this?
Monday Night Raw (6/12/23):
In a backstage segment early in the show, the camera shows Nikki Cross backstage, alone and looking down, drowning in her own crazed thoughts…until Eric Young enters the shot. Cross raises her head, looking expressionless while a smile slowly creeps across the face of Young. He asks her…
“Won’t you join us?”
However, before Nikki can answer…HERE COMES JOHNNY GARGANO! He dives at Eric, looking to get revenge on one of the men who decimated him the week prior. He’s successful initially, but soon enough, Wolfe and Dain rush in, prying Johnny off Young and starting to beat him down. Luckily for Gargano, he came prepared, as he too has backup in the form of Dexter Lumis! SAnitY backs off as Dexter comes in with a steel chair, but not before Young mouths the words…This isn’t over…
Monday Night Raw (6/19/23): Johnny Gargano and Dexter Lumis vs. Eric Young and Killian Dain
With the tensions continuing to rise between the Way and SAnitY, it was inevitable they’d have to square off at some point, and Adam Pearce decides to see if a tag match can resolve this. The match starts off with Gargano and Young, Johnny Wrestling anxious to annihilate him while Young is more amused than scared. Johnny is able to get the upper hand initially, a superkick giving him the brief opportunity to then apply a Garga-No Escape. However, Killian Dain breaks up the hold by just hitting a Senton on Gargano’s back, a tactical maneuver to give Young the chance to gain control. However, Lumis enters the ring as well, grabbing Dain and trying to set him up for a side slam. However, Killian avoids it, and the pair move to the outside of the ring to brawl. By the end of the match, Gargano is weakened, but he’s still got the power of adrenaline on his side. He’s able to tag in for Lumis, getting in a flurry of offense against the big man Dain, including a pair of superkicks to knock him off his feet. However, as he goes for the One Final Beat, Young grabs his foot by the ring apron, preventing him from springboarding into the ring. Gargano’s able to kick him away, but when Johnny does go for the maneuver, Dain catches him, planting him in the center of the ring. He follows up on it with a splash from the top rope, with Young tagging in as he does so. And with Killian shoving Lumis off the apron, Young is able to hit the Wheelbarrow Neckbreaker to finish the match.
SAnitY def. Johnny Gargano and Dexter Lumis
After the match, Asuka makes her way to the ring, standing alongside SAnitY once again. She looks at the downed Gargano, now with a disgusted look on her face rather than an evil grin. She turns to Young, who nods and motions for Dain and Wolfe to pick Johnny up. But right before Asuka can seemingly hit him with the Mist…Here comes Nikki Cross! She rushes to the ring, sliding in and looking right at Asuka as she does so. Young walks up to her, asking her the question…
“Are you with us, Nikki?”
Cross stares at Young for a moment…then to Wolfe…then to Dain…then to Asuka. It’s to the Raw Women’s Champion that she gives the longest stare, Nikki’s eyes slowly growing wider and her expression becoming more intense. And with that, she mutters just a few words…
“You hurt my friends…she hurt my best friend… now she will pay.”
And with that, Cross dives onto Asuka, unleashing a flurry of strikes and catching everyone in the ring by surprise. However, Young pries Nikki off of the Empress, to which Cross responds by starting to attack him! However, it’s short lived, as Asuka runs up behind Nikki and drops her with a roundhouse kick. She quickly gets her locked in a crossface chickenwing as well, Nikki unable to escape and ultimately passing out. Before she fades, she’s left to only see the disappointed looks on the face of the SAnitY members…”You made the wrong choice Nikki”. But the attention soon shifts back to Gargano and Lumis now. They’ve slowly risen to their feet, and Gargano, looking directly at Young, demands another fight! Young sighs, seemingly bored at the prospect of SAnitY having to dismantle those two again…but it shall be done. However, before they can move in for the kill, we suddenly hear crashes echo throughout the arena. They happen for a few seconds, before the lights dim slightly. An unfamiliar melodic theme starts playing, sounding slightly reminiscent of that of a final boss, but as the lights turn back on, it changes back into the more recognizable song…
…NO ONE WILL SURVIVE! IT’S TOMMASO CIAMPA! After being on the shelf for months, he’s finally back, and as he gets into the ring, he looks at Johnny Gargano…there’s no shortage of history here. And while there’s a momentary tension as to what he’s gonna do, he sides with his former DIY partner, making it a more fair fight! Unfortunately, he doesn’t get the chance to lay into any of SAnitY, as they decide to make their exit, already having made a statement with the victory and assault on Asuka, nothing more needed to be done…tonight, at least.
Monday Night Raw (6/26/23): Indi Hartwell vs. Asuka - Non-Title Match
In her first match since beating Bianca at Night of Champions, Asuka looks to prove why she’s the champion. She starts off the match well, not letting Indi get any momentum by just rocking her with a series of kicks to the chest. After dragging Hartwell to the outside, Asuka begins going after the arm, slamming it several times into the ring post before deciding to inflict some pain to the skull with a tiger suplex. This momentarily causes the ref to check on her, potentially looking to end the match…but Asuka isn’t willing to let that happen. She gets Indi back in the ring, lining her up for a running hip attack…BUT HARTWELL TRANSITIONS IT INTO A GERMAN SUPLEX! Despite having just been on the ropes, Indi managed to use what she had left in the tank to take down Asuka, and as she gets to her feet, she feels the crowd surging behind her. She starts taking it to the Empress, getting her backed into the corner and landing a few solid chops. However, she gets a bit overzealous, trying to get Asuka on the top rope for a potential suplex attempt, only for the former Kana to kick her away and land a knee directly to the back of Indi’s neck. And with that, Asuka remains in the power position, eventually locking on the same Armbar that injured Candice LeRae and forcing Hartwell to tap or get snapped.
Asuka def. Indi Hartwell via submission
But before Asuka really has a chance to even get up…HERE COMES NIKKI CROSS! She runs out with a kendo stick, furious as to what transpired the week prior, and gets in a few shots on Asuka before Alexander Wolfe attempts to pry the weapon away. In response, Nikki shoves it into his gut, before hitting him with a swinging neckbreaker and sending a message to Asuka that she’s just as much of a force to be reckoned with. And it’s later announced that this match has been declared official for Money In the Bank: let’s see if these two dangerous competitors can live up to their classic from NXT…
Money In The Bank (7/1/23): Nikki Cross vs. Asuka (c) - Raw Women’s Championship
Despite not having a stipulation like their Last Woman Standing Match in 2017, the match is still intense from start-to-finish. Cross runs at Asuka immediately, getting in some shots with the elbow to the side of the face. Asuka is forced to a sitting position, allowing Nikki to gather some steam from running along the ropes before landing a kick to Asuka’s jaw! Unfortunately for Cross, her frenzied nature ends up backfiring, as when the action shifts to the outside, Asuka dodges a running attack and sends Nikki nearly head first into the barricade! With Nikki instinctively grabbing her head after the missed maneuver, Asuka sees what to target, dragging Cross to the ring apron and repeatedly crushing her skull into the ring post. And as the action shifts back into the ring, it’s just more of the same, Asuka being momentarily hit by mini-bursts of offense, but the damage inflicted on the skull clearly affecting her. This is evidenced when Cross has Asuka lined up for the swinging neckbreaker, potentially able to get her the win…only to collapse before she can properly hit it. With that, Asuka is able to apply the Asuka Lock, and as happened a couple of weeks ago, Cross passes out in the hold.
Asuka def. Nikki Cross via submission pass-out to retain the Raw Women’s Championship
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On the Raw after Money in the Bank, Candice LeRae would make her return from injury, calling out Asuka for a match…only to learn she isn’t in the building. But she decides to still issue a challenge, saying that while she wanted the Raw Women’s Title initially…now it’s about more than that. Asuka took out Candice’s friends and family, and left her away from the ring for too long…now, she wants to beat Asuka for vengeance first, gold later. And later on, it’s confirmed that the match will be taking place when Asuka returns…except it’ll be for the title as well! Pearce claims that the decision is due to Asuka’s recent actions, as after all, letting someone try to break someone’s limb after a match with no repercussions is a pretty bad look. But while this choice of action would normally upset some superstars…it might just put a smile on Asuka’s face…
Monday Night Raw (7/10/23): Candice LeRae vs. Asuka
Before making her entrance, Candice LeRae gets herself prepared with the rest of the Way, with Nikki Cross sitting in a corner nearby as well. Indi tells her to be cautious…Asuka’s a very dangerous competitor. LeRae of course knows this, but she’s caught off-guard by some words of wisdom from Nikki several feet away:
“Destroy her.”
Candice looks at Nikki, who’s staring back at her with something in her eyes…A look of needing something… wanting Candice to kill the Empress. LeRae nods, and she heads out to the ring, more confident than ever…And she truly gives it her all. LeRae’s strategy is simple: prevent Asuka from using her signature kicks. And for most of the match, she executes on her plan, moving herself back whenever she senses a roundhouse coming and catching Asuka off-balance. However, this was never going to last, and once Asuka lands a kick to the gut, she’s able to gather steam. And while this doesn’t finish LeRae, the “Poison Pixie” even managing to hit a springboard moonsault AND lock in a Garga-No Escape at various points, Asuka eventually locks in an Armbar on the previously-injured limb that Candice can’t overcome.
Asuka def. Candice LeRae via submission to retain the Raw Women’s Championship
After the match, the rest of the Way comes out, helping Candice to her feet. As they do so, Asuka stares at them, and then begins…counting them? The Way and the commentary team are confused, but as Asuka only counts four people…a maniacal expression overtakes her. She starts walking quickly to the back, and a few moments later, it becomes clear what her intentions were…
As the Way walks backstage, they’re horrified to discover a brutalized Nikki Cross! They rush over to her, asking who did this…and to no one’s surprise, she says it was Asuka. However, it soon becomes clear to Gargano…Ciampa might be next! While Indi and Candice stay with Nikki, Johnny (and Dexter to a lesser extent) start rushing through the halls, trying to get to the right locker room…but it’s too late, as SAnitY and Asuka are seen moving away from it! While Lumis stands guard, Gargano rushes inside, and finds Ciampa not just taken out…but also sprayed by Asuka’s mist! Johnny rushes over, giving Tommaso a towel, but as Tommaso wipes the mist off his face…there appears to be a dark look in his eyes, something not seen in him since when he destroyed DIY…
Remaining Build To SummerSlam:
While Ciampa, Gargano, and Lumis keep their attention towards SAnitY for a bit, Asuka shifts away from LeRae, Hartwell, and Cross, having beaten all three after all. With an open mic, she begins giving one of her standard energetic promos, seemingly wanting to know who her next challenger is gonna be…even though no one is ready for Asuka. It’s not long before someone interrupts though…and it’s someone who Asuka has grown familiar with in 2023…It’s Bianca Belair! The EST remained off television for several weeks following Night of Champions, but now, she’s back and angrier than ever. Bianca grabs the mic straight out of Asuka’s hand, and cuts a quick promo:
“Asuka… you say no one’s ready for you. But you’re wrong… because I’ve ALWAYS been ready for you. I proved that at WrestleMania 39, when I beat you clean in the center of this ring. And what did you do? You had to use that mist, that cursed, blinding mist. And you know what? Congratulations, it got you the title, but not for long. Because I say we have ONE MORE MATCH. But I think it’s time to have a match where no excuses can be made, and there are no rules to be broken. Asuka… At SummerSlam…I challenge you to HELL… IN A CELL!”
The crowd are clearly in favor of this stipulation…And it appears Asuka is too! She starts nodding repeatedly, and Bianca just stares on with a prepared look, perhaps fazed in the past by Asuka’s personality traits but now just ready to finally vanquish her and get the Raw Women’s Title back in her possession. In the remaining weeks, Bianca competes multiple times, getting the ring rust off with multiple victories, while Asuka is content with sitting at ringside for both contests…studying her competition…
SummerSlam (8/5/23): Bianca Belair vs. Asuka (c) - Hell in a Cell Match for the Raw Women’s Championship
We’ve finally made it to the Biggest Party of the Summer, and what better of a place to host it than in Detroit at Ford Field (definitely no bias as a Lions fan)! Once both Asuka and Belair are locked in the cage, the match starts at a feverish place, Bianca hitting a strong shoulder tackle only for Asuka to respond with a spinning backfist a few moments later! As the dust settles on the first fifteen seconds, the competitors look at each other, giving a momentary smirk and scoff apiece before continuing with the action. Bianca showcases her power, getting the Empress lifted in the Gorilla Press position and just hurling her at the cell wall! The several-foot fall to the floor certainly adds to the blow, and Bianca continues the assault outside the ring, slamming Asuka’s head repeatedly into the cage! However, she decides to look under the ring for a weapon, a table quickly catching her eye. She pushes it into the ring, but makes the mistake of turning her back to Asuka while doing so, the former Kana grabbing her from behind and hitting a Tiger Suplex onto the floor!
With Asuka now the lone woman standing, she follows up Bianca’s decision to look under the ring, pulling out a kendo stick. She feels it around in her grasp, getting a good feel for the damage she’s about to inflict. Once Bianca groggily gets to her feet, Asuka just decimates her back, hitting the stick ten times in immediate succession! However, Bianca’s able to dodge an eleventh shot targeted towards the throat, pulling the kendo stick to her and snapping it in half! Asuka looks briefly stunned, but not before she gives a condescending set of claps. In response, Belair grabs her, picking her up for a powerbomb and sending Asuka’s back to connect with the ring apron! Bianca then drags Asuka into the ring, proceeding to set up a table and initially primed to hit a K.O.D. through it. However, Asuka grabs Bianca’s hair, weakening her grip momentarily and presenting an opportunity to escape. Upon doing so, Asuka roundhouse kicks Belair, before getting her positioned on the table, climbing to the top rope…AND HITS A SPLASH ON BIANCA RIGHT THROUGH IT! 1-2-KICKOUT!
Despite the table spot being unable to put away Bianca, Asuka appears unfazed. She exits the ring, bringing a pair of steel steps back into the squared circle. Asuka picks Belair up, seemingly trying to hit a brainbuster on it…But Belair dodges, landing backwards on the steps before turning around and hitting a mini-elevated Spear! This leaves both women down for a few moments, but Bianca rises to her feet first. She gets in some of her signature offense, including a spinebuster on the steel steps! However, her attempt at a K.O.D. on the steps doesn’t work in her favor, with Asuka once again avoiding it. And unfortunately for Belair, Asuka is able to hit her with a suplex on the steps, this being the key factor for the rest of the match-up. With Bianca’s power lessened a bit AND Asuka’s submission hold targeting the back, she faces a tall task, and is ultimately unable to overcome it, the Asuka Lock resulting in a pass-out.
Asuka def. Bianca Belair via submission pass-out to retain the Raw Women’s Championship
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After an impressive victory at SummerSlam, Asuka has definitely proven that she’s going to be difficult to beat. But soon enough, she finds herself confronted by a potentially harmful numbers game…
Monday Night Raw (8/7/23): Damage CTRL Promo
Despite recent events not going so well for Damage CTRL, with Dakota Kai tearing her ACL and neither Iyo Sky nor Bayley able to capture the Money in the Bank briefcase, they’re still determined to get momentum back on their side. Bayley makes the bold decision to call out Asuka, saying that if she were actually a fighting champion, she’d consider accepting a match for the title. Asuka comes out, grinning at Bayley trying to goad her into a title opportunity. Asuka looks at Bayley as just another poor soul to be destroyed, but Iyo…Iyo has potential. Asuka even tells Sky…”Bayley isn’t your friend…but I am…”
This seems to get in Iyo’s head, as she begins looking questioningly at Bayley, who attempts to diffuse the situation by just pointing out Asuka being a freak who gets in people’s heads. In response, Asuka kicks Bayley square in the gut, and when Iyo instinctively goes to fight, Asuka shakes her head…I don’t want to fight you… You don’t need to be part of this…
Remaining Build To Extreme Rules:
Over the coming weeks, Bayley becomes a little more sympathetic, her intentions appearing less out of pure arrogance and more about striving to win championship gold back and improve her honor. She goes on a winning streak, but when confronting Adam Pearce about getting a confirmed title shot, he says there’s one more person she has to beat…Iyo Sky.
At this same time, Iyo looks perturbed whenever she’s on television, still at Bayley’s side but signs pointing to her being less convinced than when Damage CTRL began. And after Bayley does defeat Iyo to earn the #1 Contendership, Sky is just left sitting in the ring, staring down at the mat whilst utterly disappointed. Bayley offers her a handshake, but Asuka stands at ringside, motioning her to come roll out of the ring and stand tall with her. In response, Iyo moves in neither woman’s direction, rolling out to the entrance ramp and walking away alone, uncertain of what her future holds.
But with Extreme Rules approaching, there must also be a stipulation, and after a set of assaults from Asuka leave Bayley staring at the lights, Bayley decides it’s in both of their best interest to settle on…A Last Woman Standing Match! Asuka can try to keep putting her down, but she’s gotten back up each time, and come the PPV…The reign of the Empress will be history.
Extreme Rules: Bayley vs. Asuka (c) - Last Woman Standing Match for the Raw Women’s Championship
In a rematch of their TakeOver: Dallas encounter, the feel of the match is similar to what it was several years ago. Bayley, despite having been around in WWE longer, is the underdog, looking to prove herself against a terrorizing monster who we’re unsure can truly be beaten. The action quickly spills out of the ring, with Bayley even managing to hit a quick Bayley-To-Belly Suplex. Unfortunately, Asuka gets up before even a count of 5, disturbing Bayley. The action spills into the crowd for a while, with Asuka suplexing Bayley on the staircase and the former “Hugger” sent tumbling down for a solid five seconds. But eventually, Bayley recaptures the momentum, finding a trash can with weapons and using a kendo stick to start wailing on Asuka. And as the action approaches a set-up table, Bayley is able to not just prop her up on it, but successfully hit an Elbow Drop from a ledge through it as well! Bayley gets up at a count of three, and while Asuka is left stunned by the move, she recovers at a count of 8, continuing the match-up.
From there, the match spills back closer to the ring, with Bayley putting Asuka in the ring before grabbing a table. She sets it up, but Asuka manages to recover in time to avoid a Bayley-To-Belly through it, instead tossing Bayley to the side momentarily before going at her with a running hip attack. Asuka keeps control for a bit, but as she looks to put Bayley through the table…Here comes Iyo Sky! She slowly walks to the ring, not attacking Asuka initially, but giving Bayley enough time to send Asuka off the top rope and to the floor. However, with the action back on the outside, Asuka looks to be a bit desperate, using her signature Mist to blind Bayley! After this happens, Iyo rushes over to Bayley to try and help…But Bayley shoves her down hard to the floor, thinking it was Asuka! Meanwhile, the real Asuka appears behind Bayley, dragging her back into the ring. Asuka decides to lock on the crossface chickenwing, attempting to pass out Bayley, but this seems to only increase the fire in her spirit, Bayley able to back her into a corner to break the hold. Bayley rubs her eyes, improving her vision, and she drags Asuka to the table, seemingly able to hit the Bayley-To-Belly through the table this time…
…BUT IYO HITS BAYLEY IN THE BACK WITH A STEEL CHAIR FROM OUT OF NOWHERE! Bayley falls to her knees, slowly turning around with a look of heartbreak and pain on her face. Iyo returns the look with an icy cold stare, before Asuka pops-up behind Bayley, applying the Asuka Lock to pass the former “Role Model” out. But given this requires a ten count for Bayley to be down, and Asuka wanting to see what Iyo can do…she motions to the table. Iyo nods, getting Bayley set-up, climbing to the top rope, and hitting a Moonsault, crushing Bayley’s ribs, her friendship, and her hopes of winning the match in one fell swoop.
Asuka def. Bayley via KO to retain the Raw Women’s Championship
After the match, Sky raises Asuka’s hand, signifying the start of an absolutely lethal new duo in WWE…
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With Iyo Sky now having made her allegiance clear, Asuka would appear set-up to remain dominating moving forward. However, the enemies she’s made over the past several months aren’t so quick to forget what transpired, which could potentially create problems…
Build To Survivor Series:
Despite having already made an impact to this point, Asuka and Iyo Sky aren’t just going to put away challengers…it’s time to take out everyone. After a singles win on Raw, Becky Lynch would be blindsided by Iyo, being laid out with several shots of the Steel Chair before a Moonsault to cap things off. The following week, Bayley expresses her dismay at being left alone, to which Asuka and Iyo interrupt, immediately kickstarting a brawl that would seem to favor them once again…Until out comes Becky Lynch! Despite having been bitter rivals earlier in the year, Becky makes the save for Bayley, the pair nodding at each other afterwards to signify a slight respect…We don’t have to like each other… but there’s a bigger threat to be stopped…
But soon enough, this action spills past just being a two-on-two situation. Zoey Stark, the former tag team partner of Iyo Sky in NXT, decides that Becky didn’t suffer enough during their rivalry after helping Trish at Night of Champions, and that it’s worth it for these veterans like her and Bayley to be ousted. Along with that, Asuka’s power and general craziness draws the interest of the Unholy Union known as Alba Fyre and Isla Dawn, the pair pledging loyalty to The Empress and perfectly willing to destroy Becky and Bayley. However, there are several other competitors backstage sick of seeing Asuka gaining an army, with Bianca Belair and the Way coming to the save to help even the odds. And of course, after a brawl featuring all of these competitors, William Regal comes out briefly to make his patented announcement:
“WAR GAMES!”
To determine which team gets the advantage leading into Survivor Series, we get ourselves a strong match in Iyo Sky vs. Becky Lynch, really the catalyst of what’s led into a two-on-one situation into an upcoming 5v5 match inside a destructive steel structure. Becky more than holds their own, but Iyo Sky shines even brighter, a cheap shot by Stark eventually allowing Iyo to hit the Moonsault and give the “heels” the advantage.
Survivor Series: Bianca Belair, Bayley, Becky Lynch, Nikki Cross, and Candice LeRae vs. Asuka, Iyo Sky, Zoey Stark, Alba Fyre, and Isla Dawn - War Games Match
Kicking off the match is Zoey Stark and Becky Lynch, with Becky initially successful in getting Zoey downed, but Isla Dawn coming in presents a problem. She’s initially able to hold her off, but a chop block by Zoey Stark and a subsequent attack of the leg leaves Becky in a rough spot. She’s able to get some assistance, with Nikki Cross coming in with a trash can lid and just whacking Zoey and Isla around with ease. However, Alba Fyre is next to come out, and upon seeing Cross staring her down from inside the cage, she grabs a kendo stick, ready to defend herself. While Nikki initially gets the advantage, Stark and Dawn are able to pull Nikki back, sending her into the steel cage repeatedly. Bianca coming in next is a game changer however, the EST taking control of the match-up and getting a slight breather while awaiting the fourth competitor…which is Asuka!
But as the rest of the field comes in, with Asuka being the last entrant for her team and Bayley for the opposite side, the action starts to get more and more intense. With all of the competitors brawling in one ring, Iyo sees the chance to hit a Moonsault from the top of the cage, wiping out everybody (including herself)! However, a table being brought into the mix benefits the bayfaces, Bayley hitting Fyre with a Bayley-To-Belly through it (she finally got to hit it… just not on Asuka). However, the ending sequence comes down to Asuka and Iyo on their feet against Bayley and Becky, back where it essentially first started…AND IT ENDS WITH IO HITTING A MOONSAULT ON BAYLEY! 1-2-3!
Team Asuka def. Team Becky via pinfall
Just like that, Iyo Sky has once again proved her worth, defeating her former stablemate to win the match for her team and cementing herself as a force to be moving forward. And though a fairly small shot, we can see Asuka glance over at Iyo, a slight frown on her face for a moment before moving back to stand with the rest of her team. What could that mean…
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Build To Royal Rumble:
Despite the result of the War Games Match, Becky Lynch isn’t through with either Asuka nor Iyo by a long shot. She fights off both of them over the coming weeks, along with picking up several singles victory, establishing herself as the next #1 Contender. And as Lynch points out, she and Asuka have history at Royal Rumble. Asuka beat her in singles action in 2019…before Lynch went on to win the Royal Rumble and headline Mania. But this isn’t about the Rumble match now…it’s time to put away the Empress.
As for Iyo, she also has a run of singles success, carrying a lot of momentum heading into the Royal Rumble Match. And soon, we learn that she requested training from one of the most respected female competitors in the locker room, a former NXT UK Champion…Meiko Satomura! While Satomura doesn’t intend to compete right away, she’s more than willing to help Iyo, with vignettes being shown of them together and Satomura even being at ringside for her matches. However, as this keeps happening, Asuka’s looks towards Iyo become more and more strained. Sky is abandoning me… after all I did for her… something’s going to change soon enough…
Royal Rumble: Becky Lynch vs. Asuka (c) - Raw Women’s Championship
Earlier in the night, Iyo Sky does indeed win the Royal Rumble match, punching her ticket to WrestleMania. This doesn’t seem to affect Asuka’s thoughts however, the Empress looking as ruthless and as calculated as ever en route to using an Armbar to submit Becky after a pretty back-and-forth encounter. And while Asuka proved herself the master of the Armbar between the pairing, Iyo Sky coming out with Meiko Satomura to acknowledge the title win seems to aggravate something in Asuka. Her grin has become a definite frown, and she stares an icy dagger through the pairing. Something isn’t right here…
Asuka def. Becky Lynch via submission to retain the Raw Women’s Title
Build To WrestleMania:
In a conversation between Meiko Satomura and Iyo Sky on an episode of Raw, Satomura asks if Sky would be willing to use her Rumble Victory position to challenge Asuka. Sky doesn’t look too convinced about doing that, which Satomura says is fine, but it’s advisable to weigh all her options. However, in the background, Asuka can be seen, carefully listening to the conversation.
A week later, Satomura addresses the WWE Universe. She’s made the announcement that she wants to have one last run before she retires, and wants to face some of the best names this women’s division has to offer…which is why she’s challenging Asuka for Elimination Chamber! Asuka comes out, her face paint being more red than usual…but while it looks like she’s having to contain herself, she shakes Satomura’s hand, seemingly paying respect to a legend.
Elimination Chamber: Meiko Satomura vs. Asuka (c) - Raw Women’s Championship
Unfortunately for Satomura, this retirement run of sorts looked to hit the ground before it could even get going. While she catches the Empress off guard at the beginning of the encounter, as time moves on, Asuka appears to be getting more and more angry. This comes to a boiling point when after one Tiger Suplex, Asuka hits another…then another…then another…then another! The ref pleads for Asuka to quit the assault, which she does…only to pull a Bryan Danielson and just start repeatedly kicking Satomura in the face! This goes on for disturbingly long, and when it’s become clear that Satomura is passed out, the ref calls for the bell, him having made the discretion for the match to end.
Asuka def. Meiko Satomura via ref stoppage
After the match, Iyo Sky rushes to the ring, checking on the woman who’s helped her out tremendously over the past couple of months. Asuka looks down at Iyo, a look of disgust on her face, before demanding to know who Sky is facing at WrestleMania. And it better be a specific answer…
Iyo Sky: “I… CHALLENGE… YOU!”
The crowd roar in approval, Asuka somehow shocked initially…until a smile comes across her face. I’m not surprised you made that choice…but unfortunately, it’s the wrong one...it’s a shame this has to happen Iyo…so much potential…
WrestleMania 40: Iyo Sky vs. Asuka (c) - Raw Women’s Championship
Despite that inner monologue running through Asuka’s head at Elimination Chamber, Sky proves why she’s not to be taken lightly. On the Grandest Stage of them All, Iyo just looks…better. Having been around Asuka for several months, she knows the mechanics of her offense, doing a good job at avoiding those signature kicks while also having the speed advantage. And at the end of the match, Sky proves herself superior over The Empress of Tomorrow, hitting the second Moonsault of the match to pin Asuka, and end a spectacular title run while opening a new chapter for another one.
Iyo Sky def. Asuka via pinfall to win the Raw Women’s Championship
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Monday Night Raw (5/29/23):
Following Night of Champions with the crowning of Asuka, it would appear the landscape of the women’s division has changed. While some individuals are surely eager to go after singles gold, this isn’t initially the case for the Way. In a backstage interview with Byron Saxton, Candice LeRae and Indi Hartwell express their desire to go after the Women’s Tag Team Titles, only to be interrupted by the lunatic duo of Chelsea Green and Sonya Deville. Deville tries to get under the skin of the pairing, particularly LeRae, mocking her struggles to get victories as of late. However, Candice retorts that Sonya and Chelsea haven’t done anything either, their only actual success as a duo being making Adam Pearce question his own sanity. After a few more moments of bickering, Green tries to slap LeRae, but Hartwell blocks it for her, shoving Chelsea to the ground. Sonya shoves Indi back, and Candice in-turn attacks Deville, forcing several officials to have to separate things.
This results in a singles match later in the evening between Deville and LeRae, with Sonya trying to make an example out of the “Poison Pixie”. It’s a fairly back-and-forth encounter, with LeRae starting the match off hot, but Sonya is able to adapt, using her MMA background to her advantage with increasingly strong shots. However, as Sonya gains control, her emotions also start to fluctuate a bit. Rather than just go for the win at points, she decides to inflict further damage, regularly targeting the right arm in particular with a combination of stomps and armbars. However, the turning point of the match comes when Deville kneels down, once again looking to apply some type of submission hold…only for LeRae to transition it into the Garga-No Escape! While Sonya doesn’t submit, it gives her enough breathing room to mount a comeback, eventually hitting her signature springboard moonsault to finish things.
Candice LeRae def. Sonya Deville via pinfall
After the match, Candice and Indi take a moment to celebrate the win…BUT HERE COMES ASUKA! The Raw Women’s Champion is in the building, and she looks as maniacal as ever. She makes her way towards LeRae…and offers a handshake? Candice is definitely hesitant to accept, and for good reason, as when she starts moving her hand out…ASUKA HITS HER WITH A ROUNDHOUSE KICK! Indi tries to avenge her downed partner, but Asuka takes her out with a spinning backfist. The Empress moves back towards LeRae, staring at the injured right arm…AND SHE APPLIES A VICIOUS ARMBAR, SNAPPING IT IN THE PROCESS! Asuka eventually lets go, with Johnny Gargano and a medical official coming out to tend to LeRae while Adam Pearce wants to know what’s wrong with Asuka…to which she merely replies with a sinister smile…
Monday Night Raw (6/5/23):
About half-way through the show, Johnny Gargano comes to the ring, ready to give an update on his wife Candice LeRae. He says that while LeRae is unable to compete, it’s only for a short period of time, and the fracture to her arm was small enough as to where she won’t require surgery. However, Gargano also says that LeRae wanted him to pass along a message…which is why he’s calling out Asuka to the ring! On cue, the Empress comes out, looking at Johnny Wrestling with a curious look. Gargano says that once upon a time, he and his wife both had respect for Asuka’s accomplishments, especially her record-setting run in NXT. However, with the actions of last week, they no longer have those sentiments, and when LeRae returns from this set-back, she’s challenging you for that Raw Women’s Title! As Gargano says this, Asuka just begins giving a deranged laugh. No one in the arena knows what to make of this…until Asuka picks up a mic…to simply say…bye bye…
As Asuka makes her way to the ring apron, Gargano is left staring in confusion at what transpired…but suddenly, the lights go out! When they turn back on…a trio of masked men are destroying Johnny Wrestling! He tries to fight back, but he’s just overpowered, and left to be stomped on as Asuka just watches on from ringside, enjoying the carnage. The biggest of the three hits Gargano with a top rope splash, before what appears to be the leader hits…a wheelbarrow neckbreaker. As the individual hits this, Asuka comes back into the ring, standing alongside the figures. She whispers something to them, and they move their hand to the top of the masks, pulling them off to reveal…IT’S SAnitY! Eric Young, Alexander Wolfe, and Killian Dain are all back in WWE, and it appears they’ve aligned themselves with the Empress of Tomorrow. But the question left to be answered… Where is Nikki Cross in all of this?
Monday Night Raw (6/12/23):
In a backstage segment early in the show, the camera shows Nikki Cross backstage, alone and looking down, drowning in her own crazed thoughts…until Eric Young enters the shot. Cross raises her head, looking expressionless while a smile slowly creeps across the face of Young. He asks her…
“Won’t you join us?”
However, before Nikki can answer…HERE COMES JOHNNY GARGANO! He dives at Eric, looking to get revenge on one of the men who decimated him the week prior. He’s successful initially, but soon enough, Wolfe and Dain rush in, prying Johnny off Young and starting to beat him down. Luckily for Gargano, he came prepared, as he too has backup in the form of Dexter Lumis! SAnitY backs off as Dexter comes in with a steel chair, but not before Young mouths the words…This isn’t over…
Monday Night Raw (6/19/23): Johnny Gargano and Dexter Lumis vs. Eric Young and Killian Dain
With the tensions continuing to rise between the Way and SAnitY, it was inevitable they’d have to square off at some point, and Adam Pearce decides to see if a tag match can resolve this. The match starts off with Gargano and Young, Johnny Wrestling anxious to annihilate him while Young is more amused than scared. Johnny is able to get the upper hand initially, a superkick giving him the brief opportunity to then apply a Garga-No Escape. However, Killian Dain breaks up the hold by just hitting a Senton on Gargano’s back, a tactical maneuver to give Young the chance to gain control. However, Lumis enters the ring as well, grabbing Dain and trying to set him up for a side slam. However, Killian avoids it, and the pair move to the outside of the ring to brawl. By the end of the match, Gargano is weakened, but he’s still got the power of adrenaline on his side. He’s able to tag in for Lumis, getting in a flurry of offense against the big man Dain, including a pair of superkicks to knock him off his feet. However, as he goes for the One Final Beat, Young grabs his foot by the ring apron, preventing him from springboarding into the ring. Gargano’s able to kick him away, but when Johnny does go for the maneuver, Dain catches him, planting him in the center of the ring. He follows up on it with a splash from the top rope, with Young tagging in as he does so. And with Killian shoving Lumis off the apron, Young is able to hit the Wheelbarrow Neckbreaker to finish the match.
SAnitY def. Johnny Gargano and Dexter Lumis
After the match, Asuka makes her way to the ring, standing alongside SAnitY once again. She looks at the downed Gargano, now with a disgusted look on her face rather than an evil grin. She turns to Young, who nods and motions for Dain and Wolfe to pick Johnny up. But right before Asuka can seemingly hit him with the Mist…Here comes Nikki Cross! She rushes to the ring, sliding in and looking right at Asuka as she does so. Young walks up to her, asking her the question…
“Are you with us, Nikki?”
Cross stares at Young for a moment…then to Wolfe…then to Dain…then to Asuka. It’s to the Raw Women’s Champion that she gives the longest stare, Nikki’s eyes slowly growing wider and her expression becoming more intense. And with that, she mutters just a few words…
“You hurt my friends…she hurt my best friend… now she will pay.”
And with that, Cross dives onto Asuka, unleashing a flurry of strikes and catching everyone in the ring by surprise. However, Young pries Nikki off of the Empress, to which Cross responds by starting to attack him! However, it’s short lived, as Asuka runs up behind Nikki and drops her with a roundhouse kick. She quickly gets her locked in a crossface chickenwing as well, Nikki unable to escape and ultimately passing out. Before she fades, she’s left to only see the disappointed looks on the face of the SAnitY members…”You made the wrong choice Nikki”. But the attention soon shifts back to Gargano and Lumis now. They’ve slowly risen to their feet, and Gargano, looking directly at Young, demands another fight! Young sighs, seemingly bored at the prospect of SAnitY having to dismantle those two again…but it shall be done. However, before they can move in for the kill, we suddenly hear crashes echo throughout the arena. They happen for a few seconds, before the lights dim slightly. An unfamiliar melodic theme starts playing, sounding slightly reminiscent of that of a final boss, but as the lights turn back on, it changes back into the more recognizable song…
…NO ONE WILL SURVIVE! IT’S TOMMASO CIAMPA! After being on the shelf for months, he’s finally back, and as he gets into the ring, he looks at Johnny Gargano…there’s no shortage of history here. And while there’s a momentary tension as to what he’s gonna do, he sides with his former DIY partner, making it a more fair fight! Unfortunately, he doesn’t get the chance to lay into any of SAnitY, as they decide to make their exit, already having made a statement with the victory and assault on Asuka, nothing more needed to be done…tonight, at least.
Monday Night Raw (6/26/23): Indi Hartwell vs. Asuka - Non-Title Match
In her first match since beating Bianca at Night of Champions, Asuka looks to prove why she’s the champion. She starts off the match well, not letting Indi get any momentum by just rocking her with a series of kicks to the chest. After dragging Hartwell to the outside, Asuka begins going after the arm, slamming it several times into the ring post before deciding to inflict some pain to the skull with a tiger suplex. This momentarily causes the ref to check on her, potentially looking to end the match…but Asuka isn’t willing to let that happen. She gets Indi back in the ring, lining her up for a running hip attack…BUT HARTWELL TRANSITIONS IT INTO A GERMAN SUPLEX! Despite having just been on the ropes, Indi managed to use what she had left in the tank to take down Asuka, and as she gets to her feet, she feels the crowd surging behind her. She starts taking it to the Empress, getting her backed into the corner and landing a few solid chops. However, she gets a bit overzealous, trying to get Asuka on the top rope for a potential suplex attempt, only for the former Kana to kick her away and land a knee directly to the back of Indi’s neck. And with that, Asuka remains in the power position, eventually locking on the same Armbar that injured Candice LeRae and forcing Hartwell to tap or get snapped.
Asuka def. Indi Hartwell via submission
But before Asuka really has a chance to even get up…HERE COMES NIKKI CROSS! She runs out with a kendo stick, furious as to what transpired the week prior, and gets in a few shots on Asuka before Alexander Wolfe attempts to pry the weapon away. In response, Nikki shoves it into his gut, before hitting him with a swinging neckbreaker and sending a message to Asuka that she’s just as much of a force to be reckoned with. And it’s later announced that this match has been declared official for Money In the Bank: let’s see if these two dangerous competitors can live up to their classic from NXT…
Money In The Bank (7/1/23): Nikki Cross vs. Asuka (c) - Raw Women’s Championship
Despite not having a stipulation like their Last Woman Standing Match in 2017, the match is still intense from start-to-finish. Cross runs at Asuka immediately, getting in some shots with the elbow to the side of the face. Asuka is forced to a sitting position, allowing Nikki to gather some steam from running along the ropes before landing a kick to Asuka’s jaw! Unfortunately for Cross, her frenzied nature ends up backfiring, as when the action shifts to the outside, Asuka dodges a running attack and sends Nikki nearly head first into the barricade! With Nikki instinctively grabbing her head after the missed maneuver, Asuka sees what to target, dragging Cross to the ring apron and repeatedly crushing her skull into the ring post. And as the action shifts back into the ring, it’s just more of the same, Asuka being momentarily hit by mini-bursts of offense, but the damage inflicted on the skull clearly affecting her. This is evidenced when Cross has Asuka lined up for the swinging neckbreaker, potentially able to get her the win…only to collapse before she can properly hit it. With that, Asuka is able to apply the Asuka Lock, and as happened a couple of weeks ago, Cross passes out in the hold.
Asuka def. Nikki Cross via submission pass-out to retain the Raw Women’s Championship
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On the Raw after Money in the Bank, Candice LeRae would make her return from injury, calling out Asuka for a match…only to learn she isn’t in the building. But she decides to still issue a challenge, saying that while she wanted the Raw Women’s Title initially…now it’s about more than that. Asuka took out Candice’s friends and family, and left her away from the ring for too long…now, she wants to beat Asuka for vengeance first, gold later. And later on, it’s confirmed that the match will be taking place when Asuka returns…except it’ll be for the title as well! Pearce claims that the decision is due to Asuka’s recent actions, as after all, letting someone try to break someone’s limb after a match with no repercussions is a pretty bad look. But while this choice of action would normally upset some superstars…it might just put a smile on Asuka’s face…
Monday Night Raw (7/10/23): Candice LeRae vs. Asuka
Before making her entrance, Candice LeRae gets herself prepared with the rest of the Way, with Nikki Cross sitting in a corner nearby as well. Indi tells her to be cautious…Asuka’s a very dangerous competitor. LeRae of course knows this, but she’s caught off-guard by some words of wisdom from Nikki several feet away:
“Destroy her.”
Candice looks at Nikki, who’s staring back at her with something in her eyes…A look of needing something… wanting Candice to kill the Empress. LeRae nods, and she heads out to the ring, more confident than ever…And she truly gives it her all. LeRae’s strategy is simple: prevent Asuka from using her signature kicks. And for most of the match, she executes on her plan, moving herself back whenever she senses a roundhouse coming and catching Asuka off-balance. However, this was never going to last, and once Asuka lands a kick to the gut, she’s able to gather steam. And while this doesn’t finish LeRae, the “Poison Pixie” even managing to hit a springboard moonsault AND lock in a Garga-No Escape at various points, Asuka eventually locks in an Armbar on the previously-injured limb that Candice can’t overcome.
Asuka def. Candice LeRae via submission to retain the Raw Women’s Championship
After the match, the rest of the Way comes out, helping Candice to her feet. As they do so, Asuka stares at them, and then begins…counting them? The Way and the commentary team are confused, but as Asuka only counts four people…a maniacal expression overtakes her. She starts walking quickly to the back, and a few moments later, it becomes clear what her intentions were…
As the Way walks backstage, they’re horrified to discover a brutalized Nikki Cross! They rush over to her, asking who did this…and to no one’s surprise, she says it was Asuka. However, it soon becomes clear to Gargano…Ciampa might be next! While Indi and Candice stay with Nikki, Johnny (and Dexter to a lesser extent) start rushing through the halls, trying to get to the right locker room…but it’s too late, as SAnitY and Asuka are seen moving away from it! While Lumis stands guard, Gargano rushes inside, and finds Ciampa not just taken out…but also sprayed by Asuka’s mist! Johnny rushes over, giving Tommaso a towel, but as Tommaso wipes the mist off his face…there appears to be a dark look in his eyes, something not seen in him since when he destroyed DIY…
Remaining Build To SummerSlam:
While Ciampa, Gargano, and Lumis keep their attention towards SAnitY for a bit, Asuka shifts away from LeRae, Hartwell, and Cross, having beaten all three after all. With an open mic, she begins giving one of her standard energetic promos, seemingly wanting to know who her next challenger is gonna be…even though no one is ready for Asuka. It’s not long before someone interrupts though…and it’s someone who Asuka has grown familiar with in 2023…It’s Bianca Belair! The EST remained off television for several weeks following Night of Champions, but now, she’s back and angrier than ever. Bianca grabs the mic straight out of Asuka’s hand, and cuts a quick promo:
“Asuka… you say no one’s ready for you. But you’re wrong… because I’ve ALWAYS been ready for you. I proved that at WrestleMania 39, when I beat you clean in the center of this ring. And what did you do? You had to use that mist, that cursed, blinding mist. And you know what? Congratulations, it got you the title, but not for long. Because I say we have ONE MORE MATCH. But I think it’s time to have a match where no excuses can be made, and there are no rules to be broken. Asuka… At SummerSlam…I challenge you to HELL… IN A CELL!”
The crowd are clearly in favor of this stipulation…And it appears Asuka is too! She starts nodding repeatedly, and Bianca just stares on with a prepared look, perhaps fazed in the past by Asuka’s personality traits but now just ready to finally vanquish her and get the Raw Women’s Title back in her possession. In the remaining weeks, Bianca competes multiple times, getting the ring rust off with multiple victories, while Asuka is content with sitting at ringside for both contests…studying her competition…
SummerSlam (8/5/23): Bianca Belair vs. Asuka (c) - Hell in a Cell Match for the Raw Women’s Championship
We’ve finally made it to the Biggest Party of the Summer, and what better of a place to host it than in Detroit at Ford Field (definitely no bias as a Lions fan)! Once both Asuka and Belair are locked in the cage, the match starts at a feverish place, Bianca hitting a strong shoulder tackle only for Asuka to respond with a spinning backfist a few moments later! As the dust settles on the first fifteen seconds, the competitors look at each other, giving a momentary smirk and scoff apiece before continuing with the action. Bianca showcases her power, getting the Empress lifted in the Gorilla Press position and just hurling her at the cell wall! The several-foot fall to the floor certainly adds to the blow, and Bianca continues the assault outside the ring, slamming Asuka’s head repeatedly into the cage! However, she decides to look under the ring for a weapon, a table quickly catching her eye. She pushes it into the ring, but makes the mistake of turning her back to Asuka while doing so, the former Kana grabbing her from behind and hitting a Tiger Suplex onto the floor!
With Asuka now the lone woman standing, she follows up Bianca’s decision to look under the ring, pulling out a kendo stick. She feels it around in her grasp, getting a good feel for the damage she’s about to inflict. Once Bianca groggily gets to her feet, Asuka just decimates her back, hitting the stick ten times in immediate succession! However, Bianca’s able to dodge an eleventh shot targeted towards the throat, pulling the kendo stick to her and snapping it in half! Asuka looks briefly stunned, but not before she gives a condescending set of claps. In response, Belair grabs her, picking her up for a powerbomb and sending Asuka’s back to connect with the ring apron! Bianca then drags Asuka into the ring, proceeding to set up a table and initially primed to hit a K.O.D. through it. However, Asuka grabs Bianca’s hair, weakening her grip momentarily and presenting an opportunity to escape. Upon doing so, Asuka roundhouse kicks Belair, before getting her positioned on the table, climbing to the top rope…AND HITS A SPLASH ON BIANCA RIGHT THROUGH IT! 1-2-KICKOUT!
Despite the table spot being unable to put away Bianca, Asuka appears unfazed. She exits the ring, bringing a pair of steel steps back into the squared circle. Asuka picks Belair up, seemingly trying to hit a brainbuster on it…But Belair dodges, landing backwards on the steps before turning around and hitting a mini-elevated Spear! This leaves both women down for a few moments, but Bianca rises to her feet first. She gets in some of her signature offense, including a spinebuster on the steel steps! However, her attempt at a K.O.D. on the steps doesn’t work in her favor, with Asuka once again avoiding it. And unfortunately for Belair, Asuka is able to hit her with a suplex on the steps, this being the key factor for the rest of the match-up. With Bianca’s power lessened a bit AND Asuka’s submission hold targeting the back, she faces a tall task, and is ultimately unable to overcome it, the Asuka Lock resulting in a pass-out.
Asuka def. Bianca Belair via submission pass-out to retain the Raw Women’s Championship
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After an impressive victory at SummerSlam, Asuka has definitely proven that she’s going to be difficult to beat. But soon enough, she finds herself confronted by a potentially harmful numbers game…
Monday Night Raw (8/7/23): Damage CTRL Promo
Despite recent events not going so well for Damage CTRL, with Dakota Kai tearing her ACL and neither Iyo Sky nor Bayley able to capture the Money in the Bank briefcase, they’re still determined to get momentum back on their side. Bayley makes the bold decision to call out Asuka, saying that if she were actually a fighting champion, she’d consider accepting a match for the title. Asuka comes out, grinning at Bayley trying to goad her into a title opportunity. Asuka looks at Bayley as just another poor soul to be destroyed, but Iyo…Iyo has potential. Asuka even tells Sky…”Bayley isn’t your friend…but I am…”
This seems to get in Iyo’s head, as she begins looking questioningly at Bayley, who attempts to diffuse the situation by just pointing out Asuka being a freak who gets in people’s heads. In response, Asuka kicks Bayley square in the gut, and when Iyo instinctively goes to fight, Asuka shakes her head…I don’t want to fight you… You don’t need to be part of this…
Remaining Build To Extreme Rules:
Over the coming weeks, Bayley becomes a little more sympathetic, her intentions appearing less out of pure arrogance and more about striving to win championship gold back and improve her honor. She goes on a winning streak, but when confronting Adam Pearce about getting a confirmed title shot, he says there’s one more person she has to beat…Iyo Sky.
At this same time, Iyo looks perturbed whenever she’s on television, still at Bayley’s side but signs pointing to her being less convinced than when Damage CTRL began. And after Bayley does defeat Iyo to earn the #1 Contendership, Sky is just left sitting in the ring, staring down at the mat whilst utterly disappointed. Bayley offers her a handshake, but Asuka stands at ringside, motioning her to come roll out of the ring and stand tall with her. In response, Iyo moves in neither woman’s direction, rolling out to the entrance ramp and walking away alone, uncertain of what her future holds.
But with Extreme Rules approaching, there must also be a stipulation, and after a set of assaults from Asuka leave Bayley staring at the lights, Bayley decides it’s in both of their best interest to settle on…A Last Woman Standing Match! Asuka can try to keep putting her down, but she’s gotten back up each time, and come the PPV…The reign of the Empress will be history.
Extreme Rules: Bayley vs. Asuka (c) - Last Woman Standing Match for the Raw Women’s Championship
In a rematch of their TakeOver: Dallas encounter, the feel of the match is similar to what it was several years ago. Bayley, despite having been around in WWE longer, is the underdog, looking to prove herself against a terrorizing monster who we’re unsure can truly be beaten. The action quickly spills out of the ring, with Bayley even managing to hit a quick Bayley-To-Belly Suplex. Unfortunately, Asuka gets up before even a count of 5, disturbing Bayley. The action spills into the crowd for a while, with Asuka suplexing Bayley on the staircase and the former “Hugger” sent tumbling down for a solid five seconds. But eventually, Bayley recaptures the momentum, finding a trash can with weapons and using a kendo stick to start wailing on Asuka. And as the action approaches a set-up table, Bayley is able to not just prop her up on it, but successfully hit an Elbow Drop from a ledge through it as well! Bayley gets up at a count of three, and while Asuka is left stunned by the move, she recovers at a count of 8, continuing the match-up.
From there, the match spills back closer to the ring, with Bayley putting Asuka in the ring before grabbing a table. She sets it up, but Asuka manages to recover in time to avoid a Bayley-To-Belly through it, instead tossing Bayley to the side momentarily before going at her with a running hip attack. Asuka keeps control for a bit, but as she looks to put Bayley through the table…Here comes Iyo Sky! She slowly walks to the ring, not attacking Asuka initially, but giving Bayley enough time to send Asuka off the top rope and to the floor. However, with the action back on the outside, Asuka looks to be a bit desperate, using her signature Mist to blind Bayley! After this happens, Iyo rushes over to Bayley to try and help…But Bayley shoves her down hard to the floor, thinking it was Asuka! Meanwhile, the real Asuka appears behind Bayley, dragging her back into the ring. Asuka decides to lock on the crossface chickenwing, attempting to pass out Bayley, but this seems to only increase the fire in her spirit, Bayley able to back her into a corner to break the hold. Bayley rubs her eyes, improving her vision, and she drags Asuka to the table, seemingly able to hit the Bayley-To-Belly through the table this time…
…BUT IYO HITS BAYLEY IN THE BACK WITH A STEEL CHAIR FROM OUT OF NOWHERE! Bayley falls to her knees, slowly turning around with a look of heartbreak and pain on her face. Iyo returns the look with an icy cold stare, before Asuka pops-up behind Bayley, applying the Asuka Lock to pass the former “Role Model” out. But given this requires a ten count for Bayley to be down, and Asuka wanting to see what Iyo can do…she motions to the table. Iyo nods, getting Bayley set-up, climbing to the top rope, and hitting a Moonsault, crushing Bayley’s ribs, her friendship, and her hopes of winning the match in one fell swoop.
Asuka def. Bayley via KO to retain the Raw Women’s Championship
After the match, Sky raises Asuka’s hand, signifying the start of an absolutely lethal new duo in WWE…
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
With Iyo Sky now having made her allegiance clear, Asuka would appear set-up to remain dominating moving forward. However, the enemies she’s made over the past several months aren’t so quick to forget what transpired, which could potentially create problems…
Build To Survivor Series:
Despite having already made an impact to this point, Asuka and Iyo Sky aren’t just going to put away challengers…it’s time to take out everyone. After a singles win on Raw, Becky Lynch would be blindsided by Iyo, being laid out with several shots of the Steel Chair before a Moonsault to cap things off. The following week, Bayley expresses her dismay at being left alone, to which Asuka and Iyo interrupt, immediately kickstarting a brawl that would seem to favor them once again…Until out comes Becky Lynch! Despite having been bitter rivals earlier in the year, Becky makes the save for Bayley, the pair nodding at each other afterwards to signify a slight respect…We don’t have to like each other… but there’s a bigger threat to be stopped…
But soon enough, this action spills past just being a two-on-two situation. Zoey Stark, the former tag team partner of Iyo Sky in NXT, decides that Becky didn’t suffer enough during their rivalry after helping Trish at Night of Champions, and that it’s worth it for these veterans like her and Bayley to be ousted. Along with that, Asuka’s power and general craziness draws the interest of the Unholy Union known as Alba Fyre and Isla Dawn, the pair pledging loyalty to The Empress and perfectly willing to destroy Becky and Bayley. However, there are several other competitors backstage sick of seeing Asuka gaining an army, with Bianca Belair and the Way coming to the save to help even the odds. And of course, after a brawl featuring all of these competitors, William Regal comes out briefly to make his patented announcement:
“WAR GAMES!”
To determine which team gets the advantage leading into Survivor Series, we get ourselves a strong match in Iyo Sky vs. Becky Lynch, really the catalyst of what’s led into a two-on-one situation into an upcoming 5v5 match inside a destructive steel structure. Becky more than holds their own, but Iyo Sky shines even brighter, a cheap shot by Stark eventually allowing Iyo to hit the Moonsault and give the “heels” the advantage.
Survivor Series: Bianca Belair, Bayley, Becky Lynch, Nikki Cross, and Candice LeRae vs. Asuka, Iyo Sky, Zoey Stark, Alba Fyre, and Isla Dawn - War Games Match
Kicking off the match is Zoey Stark and Becky Lynch, with Becky initially successful in getting Zoey downed, but Isla Dawn coming in presents a problem. She’s initially able to hold her off, but a chop block by Zoey Stark and a subsequent attack of the leg leaves Becky in a rough spot. She’s able to get some assistance, with Nikki Cross coming in with a trash can lid and just whacking Zoey and Isla around with ease. However, Alba Fyre is next to come out, and upon seeing Cross staring her down from inside the cage, she grabs a kendo stick, ready to defend herself. While Nikki initially gets the advantage, Stark and Dawn are able to pull Nikki back, sending her into the steel cage repeatedly. Bianca coming in next is a game changer however, the EST taking control of the match-up and getting a slight breather while awaiting the fourth competitor…which is Asuka!
But as the rest of the field comes in, with Asuka being the last entrant for her team and Bayley for the opposite side, the action starts to get more and more intense. With all of the competitors brawling in one ring, Iyo sees the chance to hit a Moonsault from the top of the cage, wiping out everybody (including herself)! However, a table being brought into the mix benefits the bayfaces, Bayley hitting Fyre with a Bayley-To-Belly through it (she finally got to hit it… just not on Asuka). However, the ending sequence comes down to Asuka and Iyo on their feet against Bayley and Becky, back where it essentially first started…AND IT ENDS WITH IO HITTING A MOONSAULT ON BAYLEY! 1-2-3!
Team Asuka def. Team Becky via pinfall
Just like that, Iyo Sky has once again proved her worth, defeating her former stablemate to win the match for her team and cementing herself as a force to be moving forward. And though a fairly small shot, we can see Asuka glance over at Iyo, a slight frown on her face for a moment before moving back to stand with the rest of her team. What could that mean…
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
Build To Royal Rumble:
Despite the result of the War Games Match, Becky Lynch isn’t through with either Asuka nor Iyo by a long shot. She fights off both of them over the coming weeks, along with picking up several singles victory, establishing herself as the next #1 Contender. And as Lynch points out, she and Asuka have history at Royal Rumble. Asuka beat her in singles action in 2019…before Lynch went on to win the Royal Rumble and headline Mania. But this isn’t about the Rumble match now…it’s time to put away the Empress.
As for Iyo, she also has a run of singles success, carrying a lot of momentum heading into the Royal Rumble Match. And soon, we learn that she requested training from one of the most respected female competitors in the locker room, a former NXT UK Champion…Meiko Satomura! While Satomura doesn’t intend to compete right away, she’s more than willing to help Iyo, with vignettes being shown of them together and Satomura even being at ringside for her matches. However, as this keeps happening, Asuka’s looks towards Iyo become more and more strained. Sky is abandoning me… after all I did for her… something’s going to change soon enough…
Royal Rumble: Becky Lynch vs. Asuka (c) - Raw Women’s Championship
Earlier in the night, Iyo Sky does indeed win the Royal Rumble match, punching her ticket to WrestleMania. This doesn’t seem to affect Asuka’s thoughts however, the Empress looking as ruthless and as calculated as ever en route to using an Armbar to submit Becky after a pretty back-and-forth encounter. And while Asuka proved herself the master of the Armbar between the pairing, Iyo Sky coming out with Meiko Satomura to acknowledge the title win seems to aggravate something in Asuka. Her grin has become a definite frown, and she stares an icy dagger through the pairing. Something isn’t right here…
Asuka def. Becky Lynch via submission to retain the Raw Women’s Title
Build To WrestleMania:
In a conversation between Meiko Satomura and Iyo Sky on an episode of Raw, Satomura asks if Sky would be willing to use her Rumble Victory position to challenge Asuka. Sky doesn’t look too convinced about doing that, which Satomura says is fine, but it’s advisable to weigh all her options. However, in the background, Asuka can be seen, carefully listening to the conversation.
A week later, Satomura addresses the WWE Universe. She’s made the announcement that she wants to have one last run before she retires, and wants to face some of the best names this women’s division has to offer…which is why she’s challenging Asuka for Elimination Chamber! Asuka comes out, her face paint being more red than usual…but while it looks like she’s having to contain herself, she shakes Satomura’s hand, seemingly paying respect to a legend.
Elimination Chamber: Meiko Satomura vs. Asuka (c) - Raw Women’s Championship
Unfortunately for Satomura, this retirement run of sorts looked to hit the ground before it could even get going. While she catches the Empress off guard at the beginning of the encounter, as time moves on, Asuka appears to be getting more and more angry. This comes to a boiling point when after one Tiger Suplex, Asuka hits another…then another…then another…then another! The ref pleads for Asuka to quit the assault, which she does…only to pull a Bryan Danielson and just start repeatedly kicking Satomura in the face! This goes on for disturbingly long, and when it’s become clear that Satomura is passed out, the ref calls for the bell, him having made the discretion for the match to end.
Asuka def. Meiko Satomura via ref stoppage
After the match, Iyo Sky rushes to the ring, checking on the woman who’s helped her out tremendously over the past couple of months. Asuka looks down at Iyo, a look of disgust on her face, before demanding to know who Sky is facing at WrestleMania. And it better be a specific answer…
Iyo Sky: “I… CHALLENGE… YOU!”
The crowd roar in approval, Asuka somehow shocked initially…until a smile comes across her face. I’m not surprised you made that choice…but unfortunately, it’s the wrong one...it’s a shame this has to happen Iyo…so much potential…
WrestleMania 40: Iyo Sky vs. Asuka (c) - Raw Women’s Championship
Despite that inner monologue running through Asuka’s head at Elimination Chamber, Sky proves why she’s not to be taken lightly. On the Grandest Stage of them All, Iyo just looks…better. Having been around Asuka for several months, she knows the mechanics of her offense, doing a good job at avoiding those signature kicks while also having the speed advantage. And at the end of the match, Sky proves herself superior over The Empress of Tomorrow, hitting the second Moonsault of the match to pin Asuka, and end a spectacular title run while opening a new chapter for another one.
Iyo Sky def. Asuka via pinfall to win the Raw Women’s Championship
2023.06.03 07:58 Academic_Bed786 Workout split I made. What do you guys think?
Upperbody (Chest, back, Bicep, Tricep, Front delt)
Barbell benchpress 3x8-10
Shoulderpress 3x8-12
Ez-Bar Curls 3x12-15
Lat Pulldown 3x10-12
Cable chest flies 2x10-12
Tricep Pulldown 4x12-15
Legs 1 (Quads, Glutes, Hamstrings, Calves(Soleus))
Romanian Deadlifts 3x8-10
Hig-Bar Squat 3x8-10
Leg Extensions 3x10-12
Leg Curl 3x8-10
Calf raise 3x25
Push (Chest, Tricep, Lateral delt)
Incline bench press 4x6-8
Dumbbell benchpress 3x10-12
Sitting Lateral raises 3x10-15
Tricep Pulldown 4x10-12
Pull (Back, Bicep, Traps, Rear delt)
Lat Pulldown 3x10-12
Cable Rows 3x10-12
T-Bar Rows 4x10-12
Barbell Shrugs 2x6-8
Ez Bar Curls 4x8-12
Legs 2 (Quads, Glutes, Hamstrings, Calves(gastrocnemius),)
Low-Bar Squat 5x5
Leg Extensions 2x8-10
Leg Curls 2x8-10
Calf Raise 4x8-10
submitted by Academic_Bed786 to WorkoutRoutines [link] [comments]
Barbell benchpress 3x8-10
Shoulderpress 3x8-12
Ez-Bar Curls 3x12-15
Lat Pulldown 3x10-12
Cable chest flies 2x10-12
Tricep Pulldown 4x12-15
Legs 1 (Quads, Glutes, Hamstrings, Calves(Soleus))
Romanian Deadlifts 3x8-10
Hig-Bar Squat 3x8-10
Leg Extensions 3x10-12
Leg Curl 3x8-10
Calf raise 3x25
Push (Chest, Tricep, Lateral delt)
Incline bench press 4x6-8
Dumbbell benchpress 3x10-12
Sitting Lateral raises 3x10-15
Tricep Pulldown 4x10-12
Pull (Back, Bicep, Traps, Rear delt)
Lat Pulldown 3x10-12
Cable Rows 3x10-12
T-Bar Rows 4x10-12
Barbell Shrugs 2x6-8
Ez Bar Curls 4x8-12
Legs 2 (Quads, Glutes, Hamstrings, Calves(gastrocnemius),)
Low-Bar Squat 5x5
Leg Extensions 2x8-10
Leg Curls 2x8-10
Calf Raise 4x8-10
2023.06.03 05:29 KoanicSoul Ukraine has allegedly sabotaged Zaporizhia like Chernobyl, to stop Russia and draw NATO in. Biden can't afford another Kabul.
Table of Contents
- Russo-China rejects Biden
- ZNPP as potential Chernobyl
- Biden's Ukraine is desperate enough for scorched-earth tactics
- Battle of the Bulge at Bakhmut
- Fresh meat
- Teixeira leaks
- BRICS vs NATO
- ZNPP's weak point is diesel fuel
- Ukrainian saboteurs caught by ZNPP
- BB / Red Skull / Inb4source / Q
- BB sent Q
- BB warns Zaporizhia is pivotal
- RS gives ZNPP sabotage warning
- Ukraine HVT: Nuclear tit for tat
- Inb4source / Red Skull 4chan posting history
Summary
Ukraine has allegedly sabotaged Zaporizhia to melt down like Chernobyl, to stop the Russian invasion and justify NATO peacekeepers.Here's Biden's plan to avoid another Kabul:
- NATO operators sabotaged the ZNPP backup diesel generator fuel storage, causing it to leak.
- NATO is targeting diesel fuel shipments. See captured Ukro saboteurs with NLAWs.
- When diesel reaches zero, Ukros will shell the lone power line, breaking it for the 8th time.
- Up to 6x Chernobyl meltdown ensues. Territory Russia captured is ruined.
- NATO establishes "no-fly zone" and sends "peacekeepers".
Russo-China rejects Biden
"Don’t underestimate Joe’s ability to fuck things up." – Barack ObamaClearly we underestimated him. Americans can hardly believe that Biden blew up Nord Stream 2, essentially attacking our
Normally Russia endeavors to cooperate with the sitting US president. However, Russian state media has begun airing the Hunter Biden laptop images, of Hunter engaged in drugs and pedophilia with preteen girls. This is retaliation for Biden crossing Russia's red line by repeatedly trying to sabotage Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP). That's why Russia is willing to assist in the impeachment of a sitting US president, which is obviously an extreme step to take between two countries with enough nukes to blot out the Sun.
Rumor has it that China has also turned on Biden, which would make sense: China's economic backing allows Russia to survive US sanctions. China wants Taiwan, and Russia wants East Ukraine. They would be stupid not to cooperate.
- SHOWTIME FORMOSA; SMART MONEY IS SELLING TAIWAN EDITION pol BB May 17
- China Calls Biden a Fake President and Lloyd Austin a Fake Defense Secretary Michael Baxter May 30
- China declines US request for a meeting between defense chiefs Reuters May 30
- Xi Jinping tells China’s national security chiefs to prepare for ‘worst case’ scenarios CNN June 1
ZNPP as potential Chernobyl
A Redditor explains:Kawaii-Gopnik Russia really needs that powerplant without any leak, to provide industry of surrounding regions with energy, but very few people understand contexts of the current situation: Soviets built complicated and very well ballanced energy system, including not only NPP, but also cascade of hydro power plants. Donetsk, Dnepr, Zaporozhe and Kharkov regions are just one big power hungry plant. NPP itself is reliant on hydropower and quality of water in Dnepr river. In case of really bad "accident" Russia will forget about development of the newly accuired regions, lack of energy produced by NPP is significant, nearly 30-40%. Accident will affect south of Ukraine with russian majority. It will also be also disaster for ecology of the WHOLE Black Sea. Rose of winds will spread nuclear dust to the West - Poland, Romania, Czechia and further. Nuclear zone will stop russian army from further territorial expansion. This will be border formed by Dnepr and nuclear zones.The basic facts are documented by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Even while shut down, ZNPP needs external power grid or diesel to prevent its reactors from overheating.
Russia controls ZNPP. A nuclear "accident" would give NATO pretext to intervene, so Ukraine keeps trying to cause one.
How bad is this? Well, Chernobyl is in Ukraine. That was a 1k MW reactor. ZNPP has six. It is the 9th largest NPP in the world.
Hopefully the containment response would be much better than Chernobyl's, but that's hardly something to count on during WW3. Russia's nuclear doctrine includes pre-emptive strikes; who knows what they'd do. The USSR nearly launched twice during the Cold War.
Imagine if China assisted Texas in seceding from the USA to rejoin Mexico, and then caused a reactor meltdown at Comanche Peak Nuclear Power Plant when the USA retook it. A lot of Southerners would want to lob a few nukes back at China. They might demand it.
It is foolish to assume WW3 will not happen because it hasn't happened yet. One should look instead at the historical record of continual warfare, and the difficulties in preventing WW3 so far:
- List of nuclear close calls Wikipedia
- WW3: Historical close calls Wikipedia
Even if there is a major radiation leak, it will occur in Russian-annexed separatist territory, and help Ukraine defend her new border. Scorched earth is a valid tactic, whether the fire is conventional or nuclear. Ukraine survived Chernobyl and knows it can survive ZNPP too.
Biden's Ukraine is desperate enough for scorched-earth tactics
Battle of the Bulge at Bakhmut
"We have been working on the counter-offensive with Ukraine for 4-5 months." – Victoria NulandWhy is Ukraine so desperate?
Ukraine depends on NATO aid to fight Russia. NATO aid depends on Democrat willingness. Democrat willingness depends on US public support. Therefore the illusion must be maintained to the American public that Ukraine is winning. For this reason, Ukraine has committed its reserves to a costly failed counter-offensive. Bakhmut fell regardless.
James A. Donald summarizes the strategic picture:
So, bright new plan. "The Greatest Ukrainian Offensive". The Ukraine would build up a big reserve of fresh troops, then suddenly hurl large chunks of them at particular points on the front. They would, the Americans planned, cut through a point in the front lines, penetrate to Russian rear areas, wreak havoc on those areas, and force Russian troops in danger of being encircled to hastily retreat from territory that had been slowly gained at enormous cost in grinding attritive warfare. I do not know how big the Ukrainian strategic reserve was, but if it was two hundred fifty thousand, they have now committed most of them to grinding attritive warfare, and cupboard is looking as bare of men as it is of artillery and rockets.The USA expected to break Russia economically; China's economic support prevented that. Despite PMC Wagner's heartfelt complaints, Russia is unlikely to run out of convicts anytime soon. Russia is rotating divisions through Ukraine, seasoning reservists for a looming WW3. Russia's historical appetite for losses is much higher than its current losses. This is essentially a civil war, and the Russia bear considers being carved up an existential threat. By underestimating Russia's resolve, NATO is repeating the error of Napoleon and Hitler.
Despite having plenty of weapons, Ukraine's military manpower is exhausted and demoralized. Raw conscripts are thrown at the front lines with minimal training. Medvedev predicts that the Ukraine will cease to exist; half its people have already fled.
Anonymous Sat 27 May 2023 04:59:49 No.428438077 Report 428437208 Yeah, the killing has been excessive since they pretty much destroyed 95% of Azov fags and assorted true believers in the first 200k dead, now they overshot it by 100%. About 12% of the non-Russian speaking population's prime military aged men in Ukraine are dead or crippled. 12-20% of the same demographic has fled the country. It's over, desu. They are seeing much more of the polish and romanian mercs now, since they literally lack the manpower.Western mass media wrongly assumes that Russia is losing because it does not take the entirety of Ukraine in a blitz, as the USA did to Iraq. However, Russia does not want West Ukraine; the people there do not like Russians. Russia has captured the territory it wants, and is now using the rest of Ukraine as a kettle or cauldron, in which to conveniently destroy whatever NATO wishes to send. This is a good way for Russia to gradually learn how to fight NATO armies in a low-risk environment.
The Spartans had a rule never to war too often against the same enemy, lest they train up a nemesis. It was foolish of NATO to believe that Russia had forgotten the lessons of attrition warfare that it learned so recently in Afghanistan.
Nehming Names 9h Russia's prudent caution in directly engaging the West is bringing dividends in perhaps unexpected ways. Russia is gaining strategic knowledge of the actual capabilities and weaknesses of our weapon systems and military tactics, with our supply of munitions draining to militarily unsustainable levels, as it engages allied forces in Ukraine. Russia is aware of the continuing progress of the Great Awakening in the West, that is, the knowledge that Western governments, military, and institutions are run by an elite hostile to their heritage populations, and therefore expects to see declining support of Western governments by their citizens. Russia can also see the precipitous decrease in every societal metric in the West: social cohesiveness, general morality, public health, financial stability, military readiness, etc.With these three degradative processes in play, the most strategic thing Russia and China can do is to bide their time, as time itself will act to sap the strength of the West to militarily engage their foes.
Fresh meat
Russian conquest of Kiev would air Biden's dirty laundry to the world, from Burisma kickbacks to pedophilic field trips and worse. This would result in US "regime change". A distant Chernobyl is a small price to pay, for top Democrats to avoid the hangman's noose.Poland is itching to invade. Victoria Nuland is scheduling NATO air exercises. USAF propaganda asserts that Russia's air force is a joke. The question is, do Americans still believe Biden's false prophets of victory?
If not, they just need a little "encouragement": 9/11, Gulf of Tonkin, Pearl Harbor, Lusitania, Remember the Maine… Keep those rural Whites busy lest they make trouble at home!
Most Americans cannot find Ukraine on a map. (To be fair, it hasn't been on the map very long.) However, the architects of Biden's Ukraine policy, such as Victoria Nuland, Jake Sullivan, Antony Blinken and George Soros, tend to have grandparents of Eastern European origin. I am sure for them it feels important. There's no place like home.
A Redditor explains:
tinglevibestoo I listened to a former CIA agent talk about Ukraine the other day. He said that Ukraine is running out of time. It's not that they don't have the weapons. We've sent them a ton of weapons. It's that they don't have enough troops and they're running low on troops. That's how Russia will win. Ukraine can't sustain the manpower. It totally makes sense to use a nuclear false flag as a reason to bring in the extra manpower. Everyone would deem it justified too because it's a threat to the neighboring nations and it'd be an environmental (climate change) catastrophe.
Teixeira leaks
Some will bring up the US intelligence leaks by Jack Teixeira to support the idea that Russia rather than Ukraine is desperate. Unlike Snowden, Teixeiera was obviously a major security risk for patriotically-motivated leaking, with numerous red flags in his previous and ongoing behavior. Therefore Teixeira was probably a deliberate leak by US intelligence, using a patsy to generate the initial leak and then add whatever extra info they wanted released in the resulting confusion.- Jack Teixeira Wikipedia
- Discord member details how documents leaked from closed chat group Washington Post
- Allowed the mainstream media to walk back their false forecasts of Ukrainian victory.
- Provided a right-wing scapegoat for Ukraine's defeat.
- Justified increased social media monitoring and censorship.
The 4chan leaker BB/Inb4source asserts Teixeira was a patsy.
BRICS vs NATO
The foundation of the US empire is the petrodollar, which allows the USA to tax the world via digital debt seignorage. This is why the creation of BRICS as an independent financial and trading system rendered war between NATO and BRICS inevitable, as Kim Dotcom predicted. The US republic is a thalassocratic empire as arrogant as democratic Athens, and it is addicted to financial plunder. The Empire cannot afford to lose the USD's reserve currency status.Reserve currencies and empires both have lifespans, and the USA has reached the end of both. It is at the stage where hubristic foreign misadventures prove fatal, and Ukraine and Taiwan will prove too much for the American eagle to handle. This is no longer WW2; the USA cannot win a two-front war against BRICS.
- Gold Reserve Fiat Currencies Monetary Gold
- World Reserve Currencies last on average 100 years. The US dollar has been the reserve currency for 76 years. Satoshi Chris
The fact that none of this is common knowledge speaks volumes about who controls public schools and owns mass media corporations.
ZNPP's weak point is diesel fuel
The situation at ZNPP is tenuous and grim, workers report:Europe’s largest nuclear power station is on the frontline of the Ukraine war. SkyNews Twitter
The fact that the backup diesel reactors have not been maintained is particularly concerning, considering they have already been used 7 times.
UN nuclear chief raises alarm over Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia plant Al Jazeera
Ukraine keeps trying to force a crisis at ZNPP to justify NATO intervention. In other words, Ukraine keeps shelling ZNPP to cut the one power line that still connects it to the grid.
AtlasThis is extremely dangerous, external power is required for reliable cooling of the reactors and pools containing spent nuclear waste. Western media spent months last year pretending Kiev wasn’t shelling ZNPP.
Notice that the Russian side keeps ZNPP connected to the power grid, while the Ukrainian side pretends it cannot until the Russian invasion ends:
- Update 153 – IAEA Director General Statement on Situation in Ukraine 2023 April 13
- Update 159 – IAEA Director General Statement on Situation in Ukraine 2023 May 22
- Russian nuclear terrorism in action: ZNPP switches to emergency generators for the 7th time Ukrainian World Congress
- Kiev blocked all IAEA’s initiatives on ZNPP security — Russian Foreign Ministry
- Grossi says Zaporizhzhia principles 'step in right direction' IAEA
(This is how perverse incentives work. A little ally with nothing to lose can start a world war. It's almost like dividing the world into two hostile nuclear alliances is a bad idea.)
When ZNPP loses external power, huge diesel generators automatically switch on to keep the reactors cool. How much diesel does this consume? Truckloads per day:
Anonymous Sat 27 May 2023 05:18:50 No.428439721 Report Quoted By: >>428463646 428436425 Still easy to transport diesel enough to keep them going In what? If NATO ops and Mercs are sabotaging trucks coming in, what do you think they are gonna carry diesel in to the plant? Is Russia gonna pack in rotopack Jerry cans on their back. Fill a truck up with 5 gallon cans and hope they make it past the snipers and sabotage? Do you have any clue how much fuel those big generators suck down in a day? Those generators to run the plants during shut down or failures are huge 500kw or bigger they are the size of whole 18 wheeler trailers. Those things will drink 50 gallons an hour. You gonna haul in 2.5 gallon rotopacks one at a time to keep it going?Nuclear power plants have tough shielding. Allegedly the diesel generators are hidden underground. However, the diesel fuel supply is still vulnerable.
Normally the diesel generators have enough fuel for 10 days. However, ZNPP's diesel stockpile recently dipped to 4 days, according to 4chan leaker Inb4source.
Ukrainian saboteurs caught by ZNPP
On May 27, Ukraine accused Russian of planning to cause a leak at ZNPP:OSINTdefender The Main Directorate of Intelligence for Ukraine has announced that the Russian Military is preparing for Large-Scale Provocation in the coming hours at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in Southern Ukraine that will reportedly Simulate an “Accident” at the Plant causing the Emergency Leak of Radioactive Substances which will be Blamed on Ukrainian Forces.Then Russia announced it had caught saboteurs (presumably Ukrainian) in ZNPP's city:
Saboteurs who were preparing terrorist attacks on the NPP were detained in Energodar. They had with them maps and schematics of the nuclear power plant with marks for strikes that could lead to a nuclear catastrophe. The suspects are involved in collecting and transmitting information about the facilities of the Zaporozhye NPP on the instructions of the Ukrainian authorities. To communicate with the curators, they used foreign satellite systems, as well as foreign weapons for strikes and equipment for conducting reconnaissance and sabotage activities.
- Translated source message is from Telegram group Slavyangrad Chat.
- Original source message is in Russian from Telegram group WarDonbass, sent May 28 at 23:12.
Some object that the footage is "staged". Of course it is staged. The primary consumer of the helmet-cam footage is Russian military intelligence. The evidence shot was staged for their benefit. The short edited video that was released to the public has distorted voices, and avoids showing any faces. Thus even if the footage is authentic, it is still "staged".
The ZNPP maps displayed in the video don't appear to match the announcement text. The maps could simply show where diesel fuel trucks need to go. Russia does not wish to advertise the specific nature of ZNPP's vulnerability.
The saboteurs appear to be 3-man team, equipped with 3 rifles and 3 NLAW missile launchers.
The saboteurs had 5 frag grenades. Normally soldiers carry 2 or 3 grenades, but heavy weapons soldiers don't have to. The three smooth grenades are RGD-5s, a cheap outdated Russian model. The Russian troops removed the fuses from the grenades on the evidence table to avoid unpleasant surprises.
Some object that Ukrainian saboteurs wouldn't be so careless as to have printouts of the reactor map. However, the saboteurs' presence in Enerhodar already makes their target obvious. Presumably multiple teams were sent to intercept Russian diesel shipments.
The Enerhodar saboteurs would've been notified when satellites spotted their target. Until then, they should hide in the safehouse behind blackout curtains to avoid detection. The fact that these saboteurs were caught napping suggests a degree of incompetence, compared to other teams who presumably either avoided detection or fought back. One can assume that Ukrainian specops have suffered extreme casualties.
BB / Red Skull / Inb4source / Q
BB sent Q
Qanon has lost a tremendous amount of popularity, as patriots grew disillusioned with the slow pace of the promised Great Awakening. They did not understand that Q is subordinate to a higher power with an agenda that does not necessarily include their survival.Q aimed to help Trump save the USA. Q was sent by "Burning Bush", whose agenda is judging humanity, on the eve of WW3 and runaway de-terraforming. BB's personas started posting to 4chan's pol by 2016, whereas Q started in October 2017. (4chan is like the wild west of the Web: The world's spooks congregate there to exchange intelligence.)
BB goes by several nicknames; he began posting anonymously as "Inb4source" in 2016. A recent message implies the USA/Israel is Babylon the Great, and God (meaning him) has returned to judge her:
The world has turned it's back on *od now *od Is turning His back on the world. He Who Lets has been REMOVED. THE ANGEL OF DEATH HAS COME THE HARVEST OF THE TARES HAS BEGUN. And after these things I saw another angel come down from heaven, having great power; and the earth was lightened with his glory. (Earthquake Lights) And he cried mightily with a strong voice, saying, Babylon the great is fallen, is fallen, and is become the habitation of devils, and the hold of every foul spirit, and a cage of every unclean and hateful bird. For all nations have drunk of the wine of the wrath of her fornication, and the kings of the earth have committed fornication with her, and the merchants of the earth are waxed rich through the abundance of her delicacies. And I heard another voice from heaven, saying, Come out of her, my people, that ye be not partakers of her sins, and that ye receive not of her plagues. For her sins have reached unto heaven, and God hath remembered her iniquities. Reward her even as she rewarded you, and double unto her double according to her works: in the cup which she hath filled fill to her double. How much she hath glorified herself, and lived deliciously, so much torment and sorrow give her: for she saith in her heart, I sit a queen, and am no widow, and shall see no sorrow. (nothing ever happens) Therefore shall her plagues come in one day, death, and mourning, and famine; and she shall be utterly burned with fire: for strong is the Lord God who judgeth her. And the kings of the earth, who have committed fornication and lived deliciously with her, shall bewail her, and lament for her, when they shall see the smoke of her burning, inb4sourceBB claims responsibility for the historical pendulum swinging rightward, via figures such as Elon Musk. His method of influence is the butterfly effect.
"Burning Bush" claims to be God. One can think of him as the God of the Old Testament, or as a pagan god like Zeus, or as merely a transcendent extraterrestrial. However, he also claims to inhabit a human-looking body, lives on a ranch in the USA, has children, caught COVID19, etc.
Whatever one's theology, the relevant portion of BB's message is that the USA did not sufficiently embrace the opportunity offered by Q. Anyone who has read the Old Testament knows what happens next: Ignore the prophet, reap the consequences. Thus Q's slogan "Nothing Can Stop What Is Coming" should be understood in the Biblical sense, like Noah's flood: The Ark is optional.
(As far as I know, Q is still posting to Truth Social. I don't follow that site.)
Paul Furber is the chief priest of BB. Before that, he was a major early proponent of Q. See Furber's book for many verifiable examples of fulfilled predictions and proven scoops.
BB normally identifies himself by the unique image hash of his burning bush picture. (Nobody can generate that hash unless they possess the original image.) However, BB also posts as an anon users nickname "Red Skull", for his signature images of red skulls. As Red Skull, BB avoids the extravagant Biblical claims of BB, but the style and modus operandi and interests are obviously the same – as are his implied godlike powers.
I recommend focusing on facts and trying to prevent nuclear WW3, rather than getting hung up on theology. BB is not asking anyone to worship him or sacrifice chickens. He does prescribe prayer and a life of action governed by virtue.
I certainly do not recommend taking everything anonymous spooks say at face value. If you are, like most people, unable to think in shades of gray between binary true and false, this essay is above your reading level.
BB warns Zaporizhia is pivotal
BB has repeatedly warned that keeping Zaporizhia intact is critical to the survival of NATO citizenry:the Ukrainians attacking the Nuclear Power station in the hands of the Russians spewing radiation over enough territory that the Russians will turn Kiev into a furnace.– BB 2022-9-24
Find other warnings by searching for keyword "nuclear".
Those who find it difficult to believe that nuclear weapons would be used in WW3 as in WW2 should note that COVID19 is already a bioweapon WMD deployed for WW3.
RS gives ZNPP sabotage warning
On the morning of May 27, BB's persona Red Skull leaked that NATO specops had sabotaged external power to ZNPP.His scenario is plausible and severe enough to warrant investigation.
Here are relevant posts, datestamped 2023 May 27 0300-0500:
it's a little less than ten days… Until Nato SpecOps melt down the Uke Nuke plant and blames it on you.He continues:
Nato SpecOps have sabotaged power to the nuke plant. As of this posting, 6 days of diesel fuel remain to provide power to pumps to cool the plant and spent fuel pool. Diesel shipments are being targeted and terminated.He adds:
So now I need to tell you Russia intends a pre emptive strike if nuclear capable F16's are delivered.On the evening of May 27, Red Skull updated:
Doesn't look good at Nuke Plant. Russia has 4 days to get more fuel to the generators. They are working on clearing a flight path. Ukraine will try to stop them on orders of U.S. Uniparty.Sounds like a severe leak, to lose 2 days of fuel in under 24 hours.
Ukraine HVT: Nuclear tit for tat
On 28 May Red Skull asserted that:- Ukraine just did an underground nuclear bomb test in a borehole, to contain the radiation.
- Russia may retaliate with a pre-emptive strike at any time, against 1-2 high-value targets.
- West Ukraine may be reduced to the stone-age.
Nuclear warheads that USA/UK sent. Specifically for the purpose of being exploded in Ukraine. The false flags will never stop until all out WW3 is declared, or until you root out the pedophile demon cult that is running the show and sending you monkeys to war. War for really no good reason at this point. The cities are destroyed, just withdraw. Ukraine is a kettle right now, a kill box. Do you understand what that means? And it was created on purpose.On May 30, Putin announced that Russia had destroyed the Ukrainian military intelligence headquarters. Photos confirm the damage.
- Putin confirms strike on Ukrainian military intelligence HQ RT
- Putin Strikes Back - Destroys GUR Bunker? Simplicius
Inb4source / Red Skull 4chan posting history
Inb4source has posted on 4chan since 2016, but he doesn't always use an image hash identifier, making it impossible to verify the identity of all of his early posts. As his popularity grew, others began adopting his catchphrase ">inb4source".18016 posts on pol contain ">inb4source".
The first page of results suggests Inb4source is a pro-Trump military intelligence officer. He began posting in Aug 2016, before Trump's inauguration.
Another early Inb4source catchphrase is "I AM The Source." This has a double meaning, both theological and journalistic.
The catchphrase doesn't appear in every Inb4source post. Searching for it yields 437 results, too many of which are irrelevant results.
Searching for both phrases together yields 50 results that look to be mostly legitimate. One could then search for additional posts by each unique ID from a session.
Searching for image hashes is a reliable method of ID verification, assuming no one else has the image. I know of two such images that Inb4source/BB uses: both are red skulls, giving him the nickname RS.
- 325 results
- 314 results
When evaluating his warnings and predictions, remember that publishing info about ongoing events can affect the outcome, and is often intended to do so. Unlike the concept of Biblical prophecy, the future is mostly probabilistic. However, he is certainly good at scooping the news.
Someone else can do an in-depth Q-proof style analysis of his accuracy; my focus here is Zaporizhia.
Read original with links here.
2023.06.03 04:37 123android How do you develop effectively with a rate limited API?
 | Are ya'll just paying for your calls? submitted by 123android to OpenAI [link] [comments] I've realized I'm going to run out of free calls to ChatGPT real quick, I'm out right now after a few minutes of playing around. I haven't even gotten a successful call the API yet it seems but it is returning: "RateLimitError: You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details." It's possible there is just an issue with my code? I've hardly used the API but seem to be getting this response back. I have just begun setting up a local dev environment in VS Code with Juypiter extension. Previously I was going through the course at https://learn.deeplearning.ai/chatgpt-prompt-eng. Is it possible I used an allotment of my quota by taking that course? I did not have to use my own API key for that course, however I was signed in to the same account (I use Google SSO for both, but I think they are independent sites?). If I wanted to do any sort of development with this I'd have to pay lots of $$ based on my current understanding. The usage stats are very hard to understand. What does this mean? I was allotted $18, used a fraction of it and then the rest of it expired? https://preview.redd.it/oywwa9lttp3b1.png?width=825&format=png&auto=webp&s=18410afce98cde457bb01892b6f61d840fd511c6 Is there any option for me if I want to develop something at no (possibly low) cost? |
2023.06.03 02:12 Omansurver The second part of the fourth section of a certain super well-made-like-oh-my-god-this-is-so-good literary piece of media that was inspired by a animated piece of media, or the second part of the fourth chapter.
So yeah, second part. I forgot to say the page count last time of this chapter last time, so I'll say it now. Chapter four is about fifty pages long, so it fits the bill when it comes to these things. Not much else to say, so enjoy.
* * *
Jacob pondered.
On what exactly? Oh fine, I’ll tell you.
Jacob had just received what was, hopefully, a relatively unfiltered version of the recent events and situation on the planet. After about an hour of explanation, A had finished on the arrival of the disassembly drones, and the subsequent widespread assault on the worker drones. When Jacob had asked for the specific story of A’s squad, A had skirted around it, only lightly touching upon the subject. It was slightly suspicious, but Jacob didn’t plan on doing anything about it.
However, if it was the truth, it only raised more questions than answers. The fact that a company was willing to exterminate the entirety of what was probably a massive investment was just baffling. Jacob could only come up with two explanations, one of which was rather worrying to think about. The first was that of changing times; perhaps the company was so rich, and technology so advanced, that the worker drones could be replaced with the ease of buying another shipload of tissues. If you threw away an entire box of tissues, it would be annoying to say the least, but it wouldn’t cost a lot to just get another one.
But, it just didn’t make sense to Jacob that that would be the case. The United States military in the time of Jacob had heaps, thousands of missiles, and could afford to replace them as they were used. But if they all disappeared at once? It would take lots of time, money, and effort to replace each and every single last one of the lost payloads, and not to mention the logistical nightmare it would be.
So, that led Jacob to his other solution, one that insinuated a scenario far more confusing and sinister. If the company decided to just annihilate every worker drone, which is a very radical and illogical decision by a galaxy-spanning megacorporation, then it would line up with certain other decisions made by other people in the past.
During the Second World War, the U.S. government was fearful of a potential Japanese invasion. They believed that, if they did land boots on American soil, that the Japanese-Americans would rise up, taking the side of the invaders. And so, Roosevelt made the Executive Order 9066, ordering over one hundred and twenty thousand Japanese-Americans to be interned in concentration camps, where they would remain until near the end of the war.
This was an apt example for how even the most level-headed of individuals could make bad decisions under the influence of fear. If Jacob assumed that the same was true for this day and age, then perhaps the administration at the company had sent machines to kill the entire worker drone populace due some or maybe even all of them being much more dangerous than what was being let on. It was a bit far-fetched, but was the one of the only viable solutions at the moment, aside from his theory that nothing was real and they were all figments of the imagination of a being so complex they were nothing but fiction to it, but the chances of that were little to none.
Right?
Jacob’s pondering was interrupted by someone waving their hand in front of his face.
“Ugh, hello?” A snapped his fingers twice. “You there?”
Jacob blinked, refocusing on his present company. “Uh yeah, just processing.”
A scoffed. “Processing what? I thought humans were superior or something?”
Jacob smacked A’s hand out of his face. “Me too.”
A raised an LED eyebrow.
“Doesn’t matter.” Jacob waved hand in a dismissive way. “What now?”
“I dunno. That's all I had.” A shrugged.
“Nothing else you’re hiding?” Jacob questioned.
“No. There isn’t.” A glared at Jacob. “Now drop it.”
Jacob held up his hands in surrender. “Okay, jeez man, calm down. I just don’t wanna be bored for however long I’m stuck here.”
“Yeah well, that's not really my problem.” A stated.
Jacob didn’t reply, only sighing, before standing and getting up out of his seat.
A startled. “Wait, where are you going?”
“Out.” Jacob simply replied.
“Why?” A inquired.
Jacob shrugged. “Bored.”
A got to his feet as well. “Fine then. I guess I’m going as well.”
“You’re coming with?” Jacob asked incredulously.
“Yeah. I can’t have you running off and getting yourself killed.” A reasoned.
“They kept saying that too.” Jacob grumbled.
“Who said that?” A tilted his head.
“K and X.” Jacob answered. “Also, why don’t y’all have normal names? Why just letters?”
“I dunno.” A non-committedly replied.
“Huh.” Jacob took that as a cue to leave, turning to the ladder.
A followed closely behind, waiting until Jacob had gone through the small exit to ascend himself.
Jacob didn’t bother to use the ladder on the way down, buckling his knees and dropping the last few feet, hearing the snow crunch beneath him. He had been prepared to absorb the impact, but it seemed like whatever advanced mechanics his suit possessed had done the job all by itself, which was pretty nice. He made a mental note to test out the capabilities later on, just to get a general sense of the limits and what would be a danger to him.
Jacob heard a similar crunching noise behind him, causing him to look backwards, seeing A just awkwardly standing there.
“Just gonna follow me? Really?” Jacob was slightly annoyed.
“Yeah. I’ve gotta keep you safe until someone else takes you off my hands, or else I’ll-” A cut himself off.
Jacob took note of that, inferring what he might have been about to say. It only served to confirm his notion that he was sort of a VIP on the planet. He was to be protected at all costs, which was pretty nice for Jacob.
“So, you gonna do anything?” A asked.
* * *
The sound of snow crunching filled the empty room as the pair walked into it.
“Can we go back already?” X complained.
“No, and be quiet.” K scolded him. “It’s too echoey in this room, it’s annoying.”
X scoffed. “Pff, it’s fine. Nobody’s around for miles, we’re all good. Now when can we go back?”
K rolled her eyes. “We can go back when we find something, You heard what he said.”
“What who said?” X inquired.
“You idiot, our squad leader!? Our boss that we’ve spent who knows how long with!?” K cried out.
“Calm down, just messing around.” X leaned against the wall.
“Whatever, you know what A said. We can’t come back until we’ve found water.” K reminded X.
“Why do we even need it? I’m sure he’ll be fine.” X waved off the issue.
“He’ll die.” K deadpanned.
“He can walk it off.” X waved off the issue again.
“I don’t care, just get off the wall, we’ve gotta search every building.” K gestured for X to follow.
“How can we even find anything in here? Everywhere else we’ve checked has been empty.” X took his place next to K.
“You never know, now get to it.” K kicked over a rock, exposing a small marble.
X trotted over to a dented metal counter on one side of the room, peering underneath it.
“Nothing here, this is useless.” X whined.
“Shut up.” K called out.
X surprisingly obliged, kneeling down and searching the small cabinets that were connected to the counter. After finding nothing but a small skeleton huddled inside one of them, X sighed heavily, before making his way over to a large metal box. It might’ve been taller than him if it wasn’t tipped over on its side, with an assortment of power cords snaking out from an outlet on the back of it. Seeing a small handle on the front, X tugged on it, the slight rust giving way to superior strength.
However, X’s eyes went wide with shock, which changed to glee.
“Hey, look what I’ve found!” X called out to K.
K’s head whipped up, staring at the prize that X was brandishing. “You found- what is that?”
If the two had any idea what warm food was, they would’ve recognized the lumpy frozen good that X had in his hands as a perfectly preserved rotisserie chicken. If they had any sort of reheating device, and if they had proper taste buds, they might have been able to enjoy the sweet experience of a Thanksgiving dinner. However, they were ignorant robots who were about as smart as a middle schooler, so the only reaction that they, or at least one of them had, was confusion.
“I dunno, but it says chicken on the side!” X proudly exclaimed.
“What’s chicken?” K questioned.
“I’m . . . not sure . . . but I’m pretty sure it's food.” X’s LED eyebrows furrowed in thought.
“How do you know that?” K asked.
“Uh, I don't?” X seemed more confused than ecstatic now.
K shook her head. “Did you find anything useful?”
“Well I found this clear thing, but it only says something called ‘Dasani’ on the side.” X held up a clear plastic bottle, putting his finger in quotation marks when he said it.
“Give me that!” K dashed across the room, snatching the item out of X’s hands.
“Wha- hey!” X tried to grab at it, but K held it out of his reach.
“Back up!” K swatted X in the face, inciting a squawk of surprise.
“I found it first, give it back!” X shot back, tackling K, causing the bottle to roll across the ground.
The two began slugging at each other, scrabbling across the ground for dominance over a goddamn bottle, like a gang of the aforementioned middle schoolers. Nearly crushing the contested item multiple times, the two spent a good thirty seconds duking it out. And after K finally managed to curl into a ball around the bottle, X tried to no avail to recapture his former possession.
“You motherfu-” X was cut off by a noise from the door that led deeper into the building
The two highly professional disassembly drones shot to their feet, their gazes snapping to the origin of the sound. Standing there was a figure, about the same height as K and X, with familiar black plating and armor, kneeling down to grab a small blue marble that was on the floor. It appears as though the idiot had been trying to be sneaky to avoid capturing the attention of the killer robots, which clearly didn’t go as planned.
“Uh, hi.” The drone said after a moment of silence.
Even more silence.
The military drone took that as a cue to scoop up the marble, before dashing out of the room.
K and X instantly took chase, with K pocketing the small bottle for later. The military drone wasn’t quite fast, but it did make use of its head start well. The unnamed drone disappeared behind the corner, with the pair of disassembly drones right on his heels. However, when K turned around the edge, a bullet tore through the air, finding its home in her head. Completely unprepared, she fell to the ground.
X, contrary to what some might do, didn’t stop to assist her, instead just simply vaulting over her body, speeding onward. He was rapidly closing the distance between him and the military drone, when his prey suddenly whipped around with a pistol in its hand. X, unlike his comrade, was prepared for this inevitability, turning to the side and out of the path of the trio of bullets as they flew by him. X followed up on this by diving down onto the hapless drone, trying to skewer it on gleaming metal claws.
The drone didn’t have a chance to fight, but unknown to X, he did have time to press the small panic button on its jawline, or where the jawline would be if it was a human. If anyone on this planet was familiar with standard police or even military practice, they would recognize the small button as the useful yet annoying panic button.
For a bit of context, the panic button is usually represented as a small and easy-to-access device that, when activated, sends out an emergency distress signal that would notify the proper authorities of the panic button’s location and a dire situation. The panic button is common in the military, police personnel, elderly homes, schools, corporate buildings, apartment buildings, and basically everywhere else that isn’t a ghetto.
The drone, however, proved to be much smarter than his predecessors, much to the dismay of X. It dove to the side, dropping down and through a weakened rusty grate. As X’s claws scraped against the wall, the fleeing drone tossed a metal panel that was blocking the way out to his side, before dashing through the door. X jumped down to the lower floor, before continuing his chase.
A flurry of bullets ripped towards him, but X brought his arm up, letting his forearm absorb the projectiles that hit, and most missed. The drone ran down a comically long flight of stairs, taking three steps at a time. The stairs continued downward, eventually opening up to a basement with a gaping hole in the wall, which led straight into darkness. The drone nearly fell into the hole from the momentum of jumping down the stairs. But, it just managed to skid to a stop at the edge.
X landed at the foot of the stairs, crouching to absorb the impact. X’s gaze focused on the drone that was pointing the pistol at X, sights drawing a solid bead on his head. However, when it pulled the trigger, it was only met with a slight clicking sound. The drone gaze jerked down to the pistol, then straight back up to X, who was now diving towards it, claws outstretched.
The drone jumped backwards, losing his balance. Its foot slipped off the edge, and while the sudden space between it and X saved its life for the time being, it did have to contend with gravity, which was now pulling on the drone by a considerable amount.
X watched as the drone tumbled down the pit, hitting the sides. However, the sides of the pit were both sloped and slick with a thin sheet of ice, causing the drone to slide down to the bottom. The drone slammed against a large rusty metal pipe, which was a solid indicator of the pit’s identity as a sewer.
The drone scrambled to its feet, caving the skull in of a skeleton that appeared to have been a former inspector when one took into account the corpse’s clipboard and tattered clothes. X slammed down onto the large pipe, causing it to resonate like a gong. The drone snatched up a small length of rusty metal rebar that had impaled itself on the ground, the edge of the steel surprisingly sharp. The drone adopted a fighting stance, pointing the business end towards X.
The robotic predator didn’t care, however, just simply stabbing his prey with his own pointy stick, the sharp end of his nanite acid tail. The sharp tool stuck itself in the drone’s shoulder, causing it to drop the bar and curse. X took the opportunity to grip the drone by the head, while digging the claws of his other hand in its chest. X then looked into the opaque black visor of the military drone, before pulling in two opposite directions.
The effects were made known quickly, with the head of the military drone migrating away from its home connected to the body. Oil splashed down onto X, who took the opportunity to feed. X dropped the head, letting it hit the ground with a clang, dropping the body as well.
X stood over the fallen corpse, claws gleaming with oil. K landed next to him, retracting her wings.
“So you got it?” K asked.
“No I didn’t, he got away. This body right here is just a random pigeon, and you’re just hallucinating.” X replied sarcastically. “Also, how the hell did you get here so fast?”
K rolled her eyes. “Oh, be quiet. I’m just making sure, because knowing you, you would probably let him go for the funny.” She ignored his latter question.
“Well now that you mention it . . .” X looked sorrowfully at the body.
K punched him in the arm. “Whatever, we gotta go. I seriously doubt that he was alone-”
She was cut off yet again by a loud crash that originated from the hole up on the wall. The duo whipped around, only to see several guns pointed straight at them.
“Sup.” X nodded at the intruders.
* * *
The sound of conversation could be audibly heard from the lit tent.
The tent had been designated as the de facto headquarters for the former facility personnel, with a smaller offshoot serving as a meeting room for the leadership. The offshoot tent in question was currently being used for its purpose, with an emergency meeting being called. Not because of the discovery of a dead body, but for a different matter entirely.
“Can anyone at least tell me how this happened?” The Lead Engineer leaned on the table.
One of the data officers stepped forward. “We believe that when we were evacuating the facility, an error occurred that declassified the file.” They answered.
“An error did this.” The General wasn’t convinced.
“Well, yes. The computers had been degrading for a while now, and we had noticed that several of our autonomous programs were misbehaving, or just outright not working at all.” The data officer replied.
“And we did nothing about this?” The General glared at the trio of data officers that had joined them.
“We actually were doing all we could, but we didn’t have the materials to make a complete fix.” The Lead Engineer interjected.
“Why didn’t you tell me then!?” The General exclaimed.
“I did. You probably just forgot again.” The Lead Engineer suggested.
“What? I have the best memory here.” The General puffed out his chest proudly.
“Alright then, what were we just talking about?” The Lead Engineer inquired.
The General frowned. “We were talking?”
The Lead Engineer facepalmed. “Goddamn idiot.”
One of the data officers stepped up. “Uh, sir? There is still the matter of the ones who discovered the information.”
“Oh yeah, uh, dump them off the eastern bridge.” The Lead Engineer waved off the issue.
With a simple nod, the data officers left, accompanied by a few guards as well. The Lead Engineer sat back in his chair, before steepling his fingers on the desk. He looked back and forth between the assembled leadership, before the General spoke up.
“So, are we gonna continue or what?” He crossed his arms.
“Yes, sorry.” The Lead Engineer motioned to one of his ministers. “You take the lead, Kane.”
Kane got up, walking to the front of the tent, dragging a projector on a cart with him. When he arrived, he pulled down the white screen, securing the hook on a latch on the bottom. He then adjusted the cart, facing the lens towards the screen. He then attached a laptop to the projector, pressing a few buttons and fiddling with a few switches, cursing once. Finally, the projector flickered to life, shining an image onto the screen.
Kane cleared his throat. “Ahem, so. What you are seeing here is the first page of the document in question. As you can see here, it appears to be warning against a drone viewing whatever the contents of this file is.” Kane flicked to the next slide. “It continues to vehemently express this multiple times, not really differing in its warning at all.”
One of the military ministers, Alicia, raised her hand. “Uh, question?”
Kane paused. “What is it?”
“Its warning against drones? She asked.
“Yes, it is. I’ll explain this later on, so save your questions for the end please.” Kane looked back to the projection, skipping through the slides until he landed on the first one without a warning.
“Ah, here we go. So, as you can see here, this appears to be a logo for JCJenson-'' Kane was interrupted by a faint, “In Spaaaaacee!” from an unknown source. “Uh, anyway, as all of you know, JCJenson was the company that owned this planet, and the one that provided the drones that the government were using in their facility, which was us.” Kane flicked to the next slide.
“Here we can see a title for a project, along with several bits of accompanying information, like locations, associates, page number, references, you get the picture.” Kane then produced a long ruler from what seemed like thin air, before pointing the end at one of the words. “Pay attention to this one here ‘AbsoSolv’ as it’ll come up several times later on.” Going to the next slide, Kane cleared his throat yet again.
“This page is more confusing, as it appears to be mentioning several unit serial numbers that don’t match up with standard format, which are mixed in with several other ones that are in different format, like this one here,” Kane pointed his stick at a random one from the line. “This one says, S-010011X01, which I believe has a main identifying letter instead of a string of numbers based on time of construction.”
“Additionally, while some of these feature the normal serial numbers that worker drones use, they have another identifier after it, separated by a dash.” Kane flipped to the next slide.
“This one is more straightforward, as it appears to be featuring a set of technical designs of a modified worker drone with the serial number and other associated information listed at the top. The notes on the side are observations on the modifications that can be seen in the designs. Some of the original worker drone parts can be seen, but a majority of the inner and outer mass seem to have been altered or replaced with a substance that is described as ‘fleshy’. You can see at the very bottom a signature of an unknown human administrator, and a notice that marks the drone for ‘disassembly’ as an addendum can be seen that marks whatever this is as a failure, and a recommendation to request more data from their source.”
Kane took a breath, before going to the next slide. “This is essentially the same as the last one, and this continues for a few slides. Nothing of note can be found in them, save for a few different serial numbers that were listed in one of the prior slides.”
Kane flicked to the next slide. “This one has two addendums, which I will say in a moment. The image is different as well, with noticeably less random mutations and more of a form taking place. This one was supposedly much more successful than the others, and while it was still marked as a failure, the first addendum said that the team working on the project should strip the data from the drone in as best a condition as they could. The second one simply noted they were naming the specific strain of code they were using to ‘Absolute Solver’. The addendum does not mention any reason or motive behind the name, only noting the fact that their shareholders would be pleased.”
“The next one is the first apparent success in the line of experiments that JCJenson seemed to be doing. A single growth can be seen protruding from the back of the spinal transmitter, and several other growths have sprouted inside. However, it is noted that the drone survived the process, and remained somewhat coherent for a period of time afterwards, which seems to be an outlier when considering the others. There isn’t an addendum on this one, only a request from the team for more extensive data from their source to compare to this experiment.”
“This trend continues for a good while, so I’ll just summarize the important bits for all of you.” Kane stated. “Each version continued to show more and more productive attributes and traits, as is par the standard course. Throughout the notes, requests, and addendums, whoever was typing up the document repeatedly noted some things that I will review later, such as Absolute Solver, the ‘source’, Camp 98.7, Cabin Fever Labs, and disassembly drones.”
Kane flicked to the final slide. “This is the final page, with some items to note. It appears to be a reiteration of the specifics of the agreement between the government and JCJenson, with a few additional key things. It includes the standard formalities and the usual junk that we all know, but something else as well. When mentioning the exchange of data that came from the asset-” Kane paused as the room underwent an uncomfortable shuffle in their seats. “They mention a clear correlation between this project that JCJenson is, or was, working on, and the asset. They also instructed the government contacts that any unauthorized personnel, which included government agents, were now barred from entering Camp 98.7 due to ‘hazardous environmental conditions’ and that this was nonnegotiable.”
Kane turned away from the projector, clasping his hands in front of himself. “And now to explain.”
“From what me and the team I assigned could gather, we deduced the meanings and purposes behind several items that were mentioned in this file. The first and most obvious, the ‘source’ that is mentioned. They are receiving data from this source, which seems to be essential to the development of what they were working on. Based on their words, we figured that the source is likely the asset, and yes, the same asset that we are all familiar with.” Kane paused, seemingly to let his words sink in.
“Continuing on, we began to dissect what Camp 98.7 was. It was very clearly a location of sorts, but where it was and what it was used for was more complicated. While we never arrived at a solid conclusion, we believed that the most likely avenue was that Camp 98.7 might have been an outpost of sorts, perhaps used in conjunction with these Cabin Fever Labs.”
“On the matter of the Cabin Fever Labs, we can clearly assume that research and development of this Absolute Solver was being conducted there, and perhaps Camp 98.7 was a sort of staging ground or other type of location related to the lab. We believe that the location of one or both of these sites are hidden within another file.”
“And perhaps the most intriguing and complex matter of them all, Absolute Solver. We figured that it was likely that this Absolute Solver was instrumental in whatever experiments they were doing, or even being one of the subjects of the experiments themselves. From what we gather, Absolute Solver is something, maybe a piece of alien machinery, some sort of unknown lifeform, an experimental strain of cutting-edge code, one of those things, but whatever it is, it is not something that is ‘normal’. It appears to have a unique effect on those it hosts or comes into contact with, rapidly generating new organic material, with sometimes uncontrolled effects. While the file only shows the experiments that used drones, we don’t know if any humans or other organic lifeforms were included either. Likely not, considering the legality of the situation, but it's open to discussion.”
Kane took a large breath, before continuing.
“And finally, the disassembly drones. They seem simple, but my team believed it to be heavily related to our current situation. They aren’t mentioned very often, but they appear to be a direct result of their experiments or related to one. From what we could gather, they are meant to, well, disassemble. Drones on par with military-grade ones that are capable of a variety of things, like bullet fire, rocket launching, melee combat, flight, digital warfare, and regeneration.” Kane watched as his words dawned upon his audience, expressions filling with shock.
“Yes, those drones. The disassembly drones that we read about are likely some variant of the unknown assailants that attacked the facility, and stole the asset in the process.”
The General sputtered. “B-but that would be a severe political incident! If those drones were under the command of JCJenson, and they stole GOVERNMENT property, then they would be liable for retaliation!”
Kane tried to calm the room. “Now, hold on, I’m not done-”
The Lead Engineer also appeared to be shocked. “Why didn’t you tell me this earlier!?”
“You told me to wait for the meeting!” Kane exclaimed.
The room erupted into disarray.
“We need to mobilize, hunt down those damn traitors!”
“What's their last known location!?”
“Where is the nearest transmitter, send out a request for retaliatory action!”
Suddenly, a drone burst into the room, knocking over the projector cart in the process. Everyone turned to look at him, ceasing the chaos for a moment.
“Er, uh, sirs?” The drone asked.
“Yes?” The General and the Lead Engineer stood up at the same time.
“I, uh,” The drone looked back and forth between the two administrators. “Well, we received a panic signal from one of our scouts.”
The General scoffed. “Why would that be enough to warrant our intervention? He probably just tripped on a conveniently placed banana peel.”
The messenger fidgeted nervously. “Well, his partner reported moments before the signal came in that he heard gunshots.”
The administrative drones shared a collective uneasy look.
“What did you do?” The General asked slowly.
“The officers who received the signal first sent in two of the patrol squads that were nearby at the time.” The messenger answered.
The drones in assembly all either looked down in disappointment or facepalmed.
The General spoke up after a moment. “Send in a squad as fast as you can to their last known location. Only veterans, and outfit them with heavy weaponry and explosive ordnance.” The General paused, before adding an afterthought. “And give them some cutting equipment too.”
The messenger blinked in surprise. “Wait, sir, are you sure-”
“Just tell the officers already!” The General slammed his fist down onto the cheap plastic table, which formed a crack.
The messenger saluted quickly, before dashing out of the room.
The Lead Engineer took a cursory look at the assembled drones, before he sighed.
“We’re screwed.”
* * *
“Are you going back anytime soon?”
Jacob looked back at his unwanted companion.
“No.” He answered simply, before resuming his casual trot.
“We’re getting too far away from the spire, and the sun is coming up in an hour or two. I for one don’t want to get caught out.” A insisted.
“Well I don’t die from a bit of sunlight, so too bad.” Jacob stepped over a tire rim.
“I’m not sure that’s your choice.” A stated.
Jacob paused and looked backward. “Oh, so you’re bossing me around now?”
“Maybe, if you keep on making dumb decisions like this.” A stopped as well.
“Pff, I’ll be fine.” Jacob waved his hand in the air to emphasize his point.
“You won’t last ten minutes.” A dead-panned.
“Nah, I’ll speedrun this stuff, I’ll be off-planet in an hour.” Jacob proudly said.
A shook his head and sighed. “Whatever you say.”
Jacob didn’t answer.
Jacob then looked around. “Wait, where are we? I wasn’t keeping track.”
“And you said that you would- whatever, we’re like, three miles away from the base.” A replied.
“Huh, went that far?” Jacob asked.
A frowned. “Three miles isn’t that far-”
A was interrupted by a rather loud crack that resonated through the landscape.
Jacob blinked. “Uh, ok then-”
Jacob was also interrupted by a trio of cracks and bangs, sounding slightly familiar.
“Are those-” Jacob was, yet again, interrupted by even more bangs.
“-gunshots?” He finished.
“I wouldn’t worry, those idiots are probably either messing around, or they found a worker drone to kill.” A nonchalantly answered.
“Shouldn’t we go check it out though?” Jacob inquired.
“It isn’t a problem.” A said, annoyed.
“Well it would give me something to do.” Jacob insisted.
A checked the time, before looking at the horizon for signs of sunlight.
“Eh, fine. Wouldn’t hurt, I guess.” A shrugged.
“Nice.” Jacob grinned underneath his ballistic visor.
* * *
K sliced through the head of the last desperate drone, before spitting out a bullet.
“You done?” K called out to X.
“Yeah, I guess. By the way, do you still have my Dasani thing?” X looked at K hopefully.
“Yes, I do. And besides, it isn’t yours, it's for Jacob.” K answered.
“What? Why is he getting it? Why not me?” X exclaimed.
“Because it's water, idiot. An uncontaminated source, like A told us, remember?” K glared at X.
“I guess, but that's water?” X asked.
“Yes, it is. It matches the description.” K replied
“Description?” X questioned.
“Yeah, the description. You know what description means, right?” K seemed even more annoyed.
“I know what it means.” X snapped. “But how do you know what water looks like?”
K just shrugged, before turning towards the exit.
“Come on, we gotta get back soon.” She flew upwards, landing on the ledge.
X followed suit, tracing their steps back through the building. X looked back up at the rusty grate that the drone had fallen through, which he now identified as being part of a weirdly placed catwalk. Scanning the environment, X found that the only entrance to the small alcove would be the hole in the catwalk. The basement that the small room was connected to didn’t have an entrance either, only having the gaping hole in the side of the room, which likely wasn't intended. That would mean that a person would have to chop through the sewer wall to get into the basement and adjoining alcove, or jump off the catwalk. Both of those options didn’t make any sort of sense at all. In fact, the catwalk wasn’t even needed, someone could have just removed the entire basement-and-alcove plan entirely, which also removed the necessity for a catwalk. All in all, whoever designed the building was either high off of some crazy drugs, an idiot, or both.
But, none of these thoughts went through X’s head, as he was only thinking about the devastating loss of his cool plastic bottle.
K hefted herself up onto the rusty catwalk, with X following close behind. K went through the doorway, only for a rather eventful event to stop her momentarily.
A rocket screamed through the air, smacking K straight in the chest. The resulting explosion blew X backwards and K apart, with oil splashing onto the ground in the process. With a clatter, X hit the ground, slightly dazed. He looked to his left to see what looked like the arm of K, twitching slightly. X tried to get up, only to fall again, after he put his weight on a hand that wasn’t there.
X, seeing the failure of Operation: GTFU, adjusted his position so that he could get up with his other hand only, which was thankfully still there. Investigating his left arm, he could see that everything down from the elbow had been separated from himself in the blast. He didn’t have time to look for it or go get it, so he simply let the matter go.
Standing up, X stared through the smoke, before diving back down onto the ground when another rocket came streaking past him. It scratched his face, sending small sparks up, before heading down the other hallway. X pointed his own rocket launcher into the fog, before firing off a flurry of shots. He heard explosions, but wasn’t rewarded with screams or grunts of pain. Problematic, to say the least.
X took the opportunity to kick K’s assorted dismembered body parts down into the lower alcove, where she should eventually reassemble herself. She was really taking a beating recently, and she would probably be frustrated about that when X was all done, but that wasn’t his problem-
X nearly met the same fate as K when another rocket flew from the open doorway, the fog starting to clear up. X jumped up and over the RPG, letting it fly into the unexplored depths of the building. He couldn’t do this dance forever, so he made the executive decision to charge into the unknown.
* * *
Anyway, I'll be posting the next part tomorrow, so hang on tight for the singular person that made it to the end. No need to like, this is purely for my own benefit. See ya.
submitted by Omansurver to MurderDrones [link] [comments]
* * *
Jacob pondered.
On what exactly? Oh fine, I’ll tell you.
Jacob had just received what was, hopefully, a relatively unfiltered version of the recent events and situation on the planet. After about an hour of explanation, A had finished on the arrival of the disassembly drones, and the subsequent widespread assault on the worker drones. When Jacob had asked for the specific story of A’s squad, A had skirted around it, only lightly touching upon the subject. It was slightly suspicious, but Jacob didn’t plan on doing anything about it.
However, if it was the truth, it only raised more questions than answers. The fact that a company was willing to exterminate the entirety of what was probably a massive investment was just baffling. Jacob could only come up with two explanations, one of which was rather worrying to think about. The first was that of changing times; perhaps the company was so rich, and technology so advanced, that the worker drones could be replaced with the ease of buying another shipload of tissues. If you threw away an entire box of tissues, it would be annoying to say the least, but it wouldn’t cost a lot to just get another one.
But, it just didn’t make sense to Jacob that that would be the case. The United States military in the time of Jacob had heaps, thousands of missiles, and could afford to replace them as they were used. But if they all disappeared at once? It would take lots of time, money, and effort to replace each and every single last one of the lost payloads, and not to mention the logistical nightmare it would be.
So, that led Jacob to his other solution, one that insinuated a scenario far more confusing and sinister. If the company decided to just annihilate every worker drone, which is a very radical and illogical decision by a galaxy-spanning megacorporation, then it would line up with certain other decisions made by other people in the past.
During the Second World War, the U.S. government was fearful of a potential Japanese invasion. They believed that, if they did land boots on American soil, that the Japanese-Americans would rise up, taking the side of the invaders. And so, Roosevelt made the Executive Order 9066, ordering over one hundred and twenty thousand Japanese-Americans to be interned in concentration camps, where they would remain until near the end of the war.
This was an apt example for how even the most level-headed of individuals could make bad decisions under the influence of fear. If Jacob assumed that the same was true for this day and age, then perhaps the administration at the company had sent machines to kill the entire worker drone populace due some or maybe even all of them being much more dangerous than what was being let on. It was a bit far-fetched, but was the one of the only viable solutions at the moment, aside from his theory that nothing was real and they were all figments of the imagination of a being so complex they were nothing but fiction to it, but the chances of that were little to none.
Right?
Jacob’s pondering was interrupted by someone waving their hand in front of his face.
“Ugh, hello?” A snapped his fingers twice. “You there?”
Jacob blinked, refocusing on his present company. “Uh yeah, just processing.”
A scoffed. “Processing what? I thought humans were superior or something?”
Jacob smacked A’s hand out of his face. “Me too.”
A raised an LED eyebrow.
“Doesn’t matter.” Jacob waved hand in a dismissive way. “What now?”
“I dunno. That's all I had.” A shrugged.
“Nothing else you’re hiding?” Jacob questioned.
“No. There isn’t.” A glared at Jacob. “Now drop it.”
Jacob held up his hands in surrender. “Okay, jeez man, calm down. I just don’t wanna be bored for however long I’m stuck here.”
“Yeah well, that's not really my problem.” A stated.
Jacob didn’t reply, only sighing, before standing and getting up out of his seat.
A startled. “Wait, where are you going?”
“Out.” Jacob simply replied.
“Why?” A inquired.
Jacob shrugged. “Bored.”
A got to his feet as well. “Fine then. I guess I’m going as well.”
“You’re coming with?” Jacob asked incredulously.
“Yeah. I can’t have you running off and getting yourself killed.” A reasoned.
“They kept saying that too.” Jacob grumbled.
“Who said that?” A tilted his head.
“K and X.” Jacob answered. “Also, why don’t y’all have normal names? Why just letters?”
“I dunno.” A non-committedly replied.
“Huh.” Jacob took that as a cue to leave, turning to the ladder.
A followed closely behind, waiting until Jacob had gone through the small exit to ascend himself.
Jacob didn’t bother to use the ladder on the way down, buckling his knees and dropping the last few feet, hearing the snow crunch beneath him. He had been prepared to absorb the impact, but it seemed like whatever advanced mechanics his suit possessed had done the job all by itself, which was pretty nice. He made a mental note to test out the capabilities later on, just to get a general sense of the limits and what would be a danger to him.
Jacob heard a similar crunching noise behind him, causing him to look backwards, seeing A just awkwardly standing there.
“Just gonna follow me? Really?” Jacob was slightly annoyed.
“Yeah. I’ve gotta keep you safe until someone else takes you off my hands, or else I’ll-” A cut himself off.
Jacob took note of that, inferring what he might have been about to say. It only served to confirm his notion that he was sort of a VIP on the planet. He was to be protected at all costs, which was pretty nice for Jacob.
“So, you gonna do anything?” A asked.
* * *
The sound of snow crunching filled the empty room as the pair walked into it.
“Can we go back already?” X complained.
“No, and be quiet.” K scolded him. “It’s too echoey in this room, it’s annoying.”
X scoffed. “Pff, it’s fine. Nobody’s around for miles, we’re all good. Now when can we go back?”
K rolled her eyes. “We can go back when we find something, You heard what he said.”
“What who said?” X inquired.
“You idiot, our squad leader!? Our boss that we’ve spent who knows how long with!?” K cried out.
“Calm down, just messing around.” X leaned against the wall.
“Whatever, you know what A said. We can’t come back until we’ve found water.” K reminded X.
“Why do we even need it? I’m sure he’ll be fine.” X waved off the issue.
“He’ll die.” K deadpanned.
“He can walk it off.” X waved off the issue again.
“I don’t care, just get off the wall, we’ve gotta search every building.” K gestured for X to follow.
“How can we even find anything in here? Everywhere else we’ve checked has been empty.” X took his place next to K.
“You never know, now get to it.” K kicked over a rock, exposing a small marble.
X trotted over to a dented metal counter on one side of the room, peering underneath it.
“Nothing here, this is useless.” X whined.
“Shut up.” K called out.
X surprisingly obliged, kneeling down and searching the small cabinets that were connected to the counter. After finding nothing but a small skeleton huddled inside one of them, X sighed heavily, before making his way over to a large metal box. It might’ve been taller than him if it wasn’t tipped over on its side, with an assortment of power cords snaking out from an outlet on the back of it. Seeing a small handle on the front, X tugged on it, the slight rust giving way to superior strength.
However, X’s eyes went wide with shock, which changed to glee.
“Hey, look what I’ve found!” X called out to K.
K’s head whipped up, staring at the prize that X was brandishing. “You found- what is that?”
If the two had any idea what warm food was, they would’ve recognized the lumpy frozen good that X had in his hands as a perfectly preserved rotisserie chicken. If they had any sort of reheating device, and if they had proper taste buds, they might have been able to enjoy the sweet experience of a Thanksgiving dinner. However, they were ignorant robots who were about as smart as a middle schooler, so the only reaction that they, or at least one of them had, was confusion.
“I dunno, but it says chicken on the side!” X proudly exclaimed.
“What’s chicken?” K questioned.
“I’m . . . not sure . . . but I’m pretty sure it's food.” X’s LED eyebrows furrowed in thought.
“How do you know that?” K asked.
“Uh, I don't?” X seemed more confused than ecstatic now.
K shook her head. “Did you find anything useful?”
“Well I found this clear thing, but it only says something called ‘Dasani’ on the side.” X held up a clear plastic bottle, putting his finger in quotation marks when he said it.
“Give me that!” K dashed across the room, snatching the item out of X’s hands.
“Wha- hey!” X tried to grab at it, but K held it out of his reach.
“Back up!” K swatted X in the face, inciting a squawk of surprise.
“I found it first, give it back!” X shot back, tackling K, causing the bottle to roll across the ground.
The two began slugging at each other, scrabbling across the ground for dominance over a goddamn bottle, like a gang of the aforementioned middle schoolers. Nearly crushing the contested item multiple times, the two spent a good thirty seconds duking it out. And after K finally managed to curl into a ball around the bottle, X tried to no avail to recapture his former possession.
“You motherfu-” X was cut off by a noise from the door that led deeper into the building
The two highly professional disassembly drones shot to their feet, their gazes snapping to the origin of the sound. Standing there was a figure, about the same height as K and X, with familiar black plating and armor, kneeling down to grab a small blue marble that was on the floor. It appears as though the idiot had been trying to be sneaky to avoid capturing the attention of the killer robots, which clearly didn’t go as planned.
“Uh, hi.” The drone said after a moment of silence.
Even more silence.
The military drone took that as a cue to scoop up the marble, before dashing out of the room.
K and X instantly took chase, with K pocketing the small bottle for later. The military drone wasn’t quite fast, but it did make use of its head start well. The unnamed drone disappeared behind the corner, with the pair of disassembly drones right on his heels. However, when K turned around the edge, a bullet tore through the air, finding its home in her head. Completely unprepared, she fell to the ground.
X, contrary to what some might do, didn’t stop to assist her, instead just simply vaulting over her body, speeding onward. He was rapidly closing the distance between him and the military drone, when his prey suddenly whipped around with a pistol in its hand. X, unlike his comrade, was prepared for this inevitability, turning to the side and out of the path of the trio of bullets as they flew by him. X followed up on this by diving down onto the hapless drone, trying to skewer it on gleaming metal claws.
The drone didn’t have a chance to fight, but unknown to X, he did have time to press the small panic button on its jawline, or where the jawline would be if it was a human. If anyone on this planet was familiar with standard police or even military practice, they would recognize the small button as the useful yet annoying panic button.
For a bit of context, the panic button is usually represented as a small and easy-to-access device that, when activated, sends out an emergency distress signal that would notify the proper authorities of the panic button’s location and a dire situation. The panic button is common in the military, police personnel, elderly homes, schools, corporate buildings, apartment buildings, and basically everywhere else that isn’t a ghetto.
The drone, however, proved to be much smarter than his predecessors, much to the dismay of X. It dove to the side, dropping down and through a weakened rusty grate. As X’s claws scraped against the wall, the fleeing drone tossed a metal panel that was blocking the way out to his side, before dashing through the door. X jumped down to the lower floor, before continuing his chase.
A flurry of bullets ripped towards him, but X brought his arm up, letting his forearm absorb the projectiles that hit, and most missed. The drone ran down a comically long flight of stairs, taking three steps at a time. The stairs continued downward, eventually opening up to a basement with a gaping hole in the wall, which led straight into darkness. The drone nearly fell into the hole from the momentum of jumping down the stairs. But, it just managed to skid to a stop at the edge.
X landed at the foot of the stairs, crouching to absorb the impact. X’s gaze focused on the drone that was pointing the pistol at X, sights drawing a solid bead on his head. However, when it pulled the trigger, it was only met with a slight clicking sound. The drone gaze jerked down to the pistol, then straight back up to X, who was now diving towards it, claws outstretched.
The drone jumped backwards, losing his balance. Its foot slipped off the edge, and while the sudden space between it and X saved its life for the time being, it did have to contend with gravity, which was now pulling on the drone by a considerable amount.
X watched as the drone tumbled down the pit, hitting the sides. However, the sides of the pit were both sloped and slick with a thin sheet of ice, causing the drone to slide down to the bottom. The drone slammed against a large rusty metal pipe, which was a solid indicator of the pit’s identity as a sewer.
The drone scrambled to its feet, caving the skull in of a skeleton that appeared to have been a former inspector when one took into account the corpse’s clipboard and tattered clothes. X slammed down onto the large pipe, causing it to resonate like a gong. The drone snatched up a small length of rusty metal rebar that had impaled itself on the ground, the edge of the steel surprisingly sharp. The drone adopted a fighting stance, pointing the business end towards X.
The robotic predator didn’t care, however, just simply stabbing his prey with his own pointy stick, the sharp end of his nanite acid tail. The sharp tool stuck itself in the drone’s shoulder, causing it to drop the bar and curse. X took the opportunity to grip the drone by the head, while digging the claws of his other hand in its chest. X then looked into the opaque black visor of the military drone, before pulling in two opposite directions.
The effects were made known quickly, with the head of the military drone migrating away from its home connected to the body. Oil splashed down onto X, who took the opportunity to feed. X dropped the head, letting it hit the ground with a clang, dropping the body as well.
X stood over the fallen corpse, claws gleaming with oil. K landed next to him, retracting her wings.
“So you got it?” K asked.
“No I didn’t, he got away. This body right here is just a random pigeon, and you’re just hallucinating.” X replied sarcastically. “Also, how the hell did you get here so fast?”
K rolled her eyes. “Oh, be quiet. I’m just making sure, because knowing you, you would probably let him go for the funny.” She ignored his latter question.
“Well now that you mention it . . .” X looked sorrowfully at the body.
K punched him in the arm. “Whatever, we gotta go. I seriously doubt that he was alone-”
She was cut off yet again by a loud crash that originated from the hole up on the wall. The duo whipped around, only to see several guns pointed straight at them.
“Sup.” X nodded at the intruders.
* * *
The sound of conversation could be audibly heard from the lit tent.
The tent had been designated as the de facto headquarters for the former facility personnel, with a smaller offshoot serving as a meeting room for the leadership. The offshoot tent in question was currently being used for its purpose, with an emergency meeting being called. Not because of the discovery of a dead body, but for a different matter entirely.
“Can anyone at least tell me how this happened?” The Lead Engineer leaned on the table.
One of the data officers stepped forward. “We believe that when we were evacuating the facility, an error occurred that declassified the file.” They answered.
“An error did this.” The General wasn’t convinced.
“Well, yes. The computers had been degrading for a while now, and we had noticed that several of our autonomous programs were misbehaving, or just outright not working at all.” The data officer replied.
“And we did nothing about this?” The General glared at the trio of data officers that had joined them.
“We actually were doing all we could, but we didn’t have the materials to make a complete fix.” The Lead Engineer interjected.
“Why didn’t you tell me then!?” The General exclaimed.
“I did. You probably just forgot again.” The Lead Engineer suggested.
“What? I have the best memory here.” The General puffed out his chest proudly.
“Alright then, what were we just talking about?” The Lead Engineer inquired.
The General frowned. “We were talking?”
The Lead Engineer facepalmed. “Goddamn idiot.”
One of the data officers stepped up. “Uh, sir? There is still the matter of the ones who discovered the information.”
“Oh yeah, uh, dump them off the eastern bridge.” The Lead Engineer waved off the issue.
With a simple nod, the data officers left, accompanied by a few guards as well. The Lead Engineer sat back in his chair, before steepling his fingers on the desk. He looked back and forth between the assembled leadership, before the General spoke up.
“So, are we gonna continue or what?” He crossed his arms.
“Yes, sorry.” The Lead Engineer motioned to one of his ministers. “You take the lead, Kane.”
Kane got up, walking to the front of the tent, dragging a projector on a cart with him. When he arrived, he pulled down the white screen, securing the hook on a latch on the bottom. He then adjusted the cart, facing the lens towards the screen. He then attached a laptop to the projector, pressing a few buttons and fiddling with a few switches, cursing once. Finally, the projector flickered to life, shining an image onto the screen.
Kane cleared his throat. “Ahem, so. What you are seeing here is the first page of the document in question. As you can see here, it appears to be warning against a drone viewing whatever the contents of this file is.” Kane flicked to the next slide. “It continues to vehemently express this multiple times, not really differing in its warning at all.”
One of the military ministers, Alicia, raised her hand. “Uh, question?”
Kane paused. “What is it?”
“Its warning against drones? She asked.
“Yes, it is. I’ll explain this later on, so save your questions for the end please.” Kane looked back to the projection, skipping through the slides until he landed on the first one without a warning.
“Ah, here we go. So, as you can see here, this appears to be a logo for JCJenson-'' Kane was interrupted by a faint, “In Spaaaaacee!” from an unknown source. “Uh, anyway, as all of you know, JCJenson was the company that owned this planet, and the one that provided the drones that the government were using in their facility, which was us.” Kane flicked to the next slide.
“Here we can see a title for a project, along with several bits of accompanying information, like locations, associates, page number, references, you get the picture.” Kane then produced a long ruler from what seemed like thin air, before pointing the end at one of the words. “Pay attention to this one here ‘AbsoSolv’ as it’ll come up several times later on.” Going to the next slide, Kane cleared his throat yet again.
“This page is more confusing, as it appears to be mentioning several unit serial numbers that don’t match up with standard format, which are mixed in with several other ones that are in different format, like this one here,” Kane pointed his stick at a random one from the line. “This one says, S-010011X01, which I believe has a main identifying letter instead of a string of numbers based on time of construction.”
“Additionally, while some of these feature the normal serial numbers that worker drones use, they have another identifier after it, separated by a dash.” Kane flipped to the next slide.
“This one is more straightforward, as it appears to be featuring a set of technical designs of a modified worker drone with the serial number and other associated information listed at the top. The notes on the side are observations on the modifications that can be seen in the designs. Some of the original worker drone parts can be seen, but a majority of the inner and outer mass seem to have been altered or replaced with a substance that is described as ‘fleshy’. You can see at the very bottom a signature of an unknown human administrator, and a notice that marks the drone for ‘disassembly’ as an addendum can be seen that marks whatever this is as a failure, and a recommendation to request more data from their source.”
Kane took a breath, before going to the next slide. “This is essentially the same as the last one, and this continues for a few slides. Nothing of note can be found in them, save for a few different serial numbers that were listed in one of the prior slides.”
Kane flicked to the next slide. “This one has two addendums, which I will say in a moment. The image is different as well, with noticeably less random mutations and more of a form taking place. This one was supposedly much more successful than the others, and while it was still marked as a failure, the first addendum said that the team working on the project should strip the data from the drone in as best a condition as they could. The second one simply noted they were naming the specific strain of code they were using to ‘Absolute Solver’. The addendum does not mention any reason or motive behind the name, only noting the fact that their shareholders would be pleased.”
“The next one is the first apparent success in the line of experiments that JCJenson seemed to be doing. A single growth can be seen protruding from the back of the spinal transmitter, and several other growths have sprouted inside. However, it is noted that the drone survived the process, and remained somewhat coherent for a period of time afterwards, which seems to be an outlier when considering the others. There isn’t an addendum on this one, only a request from the team for more extensive data from their source to compare to this experiment.”
“This trend continues for a good while, so I’ll just summarize the important bits for all of you.” Kane stated. “Each version continued to show more and more productive attributes and traits, as is par the standard course. Throughout the notes, requests, and addendums, whoever was typing up the document repeatedly noted some things that I will review later, such as Absolute Solver, the ‘source’, Camp 98.7, Cabin Fever Labs, and disassembly drones.”
Kane flicked to the final slide. “This is the final page, with some items to note. It appears to be a reiteration of the specifics of the agreement between the government and JCJenson, with a few additional key things. It includes the standard formalities and the usual junk that we all know, but something else as well. When mentioning the exchange of data that came from the asset-” Kane paused as the room underwent an uncomfortable shuffle in their seats. “They mention a clear correlation between this project that JCJenson is, or was, working on, and the asset. They also instructed the government contacts that any unauthorized personnel, which included government agents, were now barred from entering Camp 98.7 due to ‘hazardous environmental conditions’ and that this was nonnegotiable.”
Kane turned away from the projector, clasping his hands in front of himself. “And now to explain.”
“From what me and the team I assigned could gather, we deduced the meanings and purposes behind several items that were mentioned in this file. The first and most obvious, the ‘source’ that is mentioned. They are receiving data from this source, which seems to be essential to the development of what they were working on. Based on their words, we figured that the source is likely the asset, and yes, the same asset that we are all familiar with.” Kane paused, seemingly to let his words sink in.
“Continuing on, we began to dissect what Camp 98.7 was. It was very clearly a location of sorts, but where it was and what it was used for was more complicated. While we never arrived at a solid conclusion, we believed that the most likely avenue was that Camp 98.7 might have been an outpost of sorts, perhaps used in conjunction with these Cabin Fever Labs.”
“On the matter of the Cabin Fever Labs, we can clearly assume that research and development of this Absolute Solver was being conducted there, and perhaps Camp 98.7 was a sort of staging ground or other type of location related to the lab. We believe that the location of one or both of these sites are hidden within another file.”
“And perhaps the most intriguing and complex matter of them all, Absolute Solver. We figured that it was likely that this Absolute Solver was instrumental in whatever experiments they were doing, or even being one of the subjects of the experiments themselves. From what we gather, Absolute Solver is something, maybe a piece of alien machinery, some sort of unknown lifeform, an experimental strain of cutting-edge code, one of those things, but whatever it is, it is not something that is ‘normal’. It appears to have a unique effect on those it hosts or comes into contact with, rapidly generating new organic material, with sometimes uncontrolled effects. While the file only shows the experiments that used drones, we don’t know if any humans or other organic lifeforms were included either. Likely not, considering the legality of the situation, but it's open to discussion.”
Kane took a large breath, before continuing.
“And finally, the disassembly drones. They seem simple, but my team believed it to be heavily related to our current situation. They aren’t mentioned very often, but they appear to be a direct result of their experiments or related to one. From what we could gather, they are meant to, well, disassemble. Drones on par with military-grade ones that are capable of a variety of things, like bullet fire, rocket launching, melee combat, flight, digital warfare, and regeneration.” Kane watched as his words dawned upon his audience, expressions filling with shock.
“Yes, those drones. The disassembly drones that we read about are likely some variant of the unknown assailants that attacked the facility, and stole the asset in the process.”
The General sputtered. “B-but that would be a severe political incident! If those drones were under the command of JCJenson, and they stole GOVERNMENT property, then they would be liable for retaliation!”
Kane tried to calm the room. “Now, hold on, I’m not done-”
The Lead Engineer also appeared to be shocked. “Why didn’t you tell me this earlier!?”
“You told me to wait for the meeting!” Kane exclaimed.
The room erupted into disarray.
“We need to mobilize, hunt down those damn traitors!”
“What's their last known location!?”
“Where is the nearest transmitter, send out a request for retaliatory action!”
Suddenly, a drone burst into the room, knocking over the projector cart in the process. Everyone turned to look at him, ceasing the chaos for a moment.
“Er, uh, sirs?” The drone asked.
“Yes?” The General and the Lead Engineer stood up at the same time.
“I, uh,” The drone looked back and forth between the two administrators. “Well, we received a panic signal from one of our scouts.”
The General scoffed. “Why would that be enough to warrant our intervention? He probably just tripped on a conveniently placed banana peel.”
The messenger fidgeted nervously. “Well, his partner reported moments before the signal came in that he heard gunshots.”
The administrative drones shared a collective uneasy look.
“What did you do?” The General asked slowly.
“The officers who received the signal first sent in two of the patrol squads that were nearby at the time.” The messenger answered.
The drones in assembly all either looked down in disappointment or facepalmed.
The General spoke up after a moment. “Send in a squad as fast as you can to their last known location. Only veterans, and outfit them with heavy weaponry and explosive ordnance.” The General paused, before adding an afterthought. “And give them some cutting equipment too.”
The messenger blinked in surprise. “Wait, sir, are you sure-”
“Just tell the officers already!” The General slammed his fist down onto the cheap plastic table, which formed a crack.
The messenger saluted quickly, before dashing out of the room.
The Lead Engineer took a cursory look at the assembled drones, before he sighed.
“We’re screwed.”
* * *
“Are you going back anytime soon?”
Jacob looked back at his unwanted companion.
“No.” He answered simply, before resuming his casual trot.
“We’re getting too far away from the spire, and the sun is coming up in an hour or two. I for one don’t want to get caught out.” A insisted.
“Well I don’t die from a bit of sunlight, so too bad.” Jacob stepped over a tire rim.
“I’m not sure that’s your choice.” A stated.
Jacob paused and looked backward. “Oh, so you’re bossing me around now?”
“Maybe, if you keep on making dumb decisions like this.” A stopped as well.
“Pff, I’ll be fine.” Jacob waved his hand in the air to emphasize his point.
“You won’t last ten minutes.” A dead-panned.
“Nah, I’ll speedrun this stuff, I’ll be off-planet in an hour.” Jacob proudly said.
A shook his head and sighed. “Whatever you say.”
Jacob didn’t answer.
Jacob then looked around. “Wait, where are we? I wasn’t keeping track.”
“And you said that you would- whatever, we’re like, three miles away from the base.” A replied.
“Huh, went that far?” Jacob asked.
A frowned. “Three miles isn’t that far-”
A was interrupted by a rather loud crack that resonated through the landscape.
Jacob blinked. “Uh, ok then-”
Jacob was also interrupted by a trio of cracks and bangs, sounding slightly familiar.
“Are those-” Jacob was, yet again, interrupted by even more bangs.
“-gunshots?” He finished.
“I wouldn’t worry, those idiots are probably either messing around, or they found a worker drone to kill.” A nonchalantly answered.
“Shouldn’t we go check it out though?” Jacob inquired.
“It isn’t a problem.” A said, annoyed.
“Well it would give me something to do.” Jacob insisted.
A checked the time, before looking at the horizon for signs of sunlight.
“Eh, fine. Wouldn’t hurt, I guess.” A shrugged.
“Nice.” Jacob grinned underneath his ballistic visor.
* * *
K sliced through the head of the last desperate drone, before spitting out a bullet.
“You done?” K called out to X.
“Yeah, I guess. By the way, do you still have my Dasani thing?” X looked at K hopefully.
“Yes, I do. And besides, it isn’t yours, it's for Jacob.” K answered.
“What? Why is he getting it? Why not me?” X exclaimed.
“Because it's water, idiot. An uncontaminated source, like A told us, remember?” K glared at X.
“I guess, but that's water?” X asked.
“Yes, it is. It matches the description.” K replied
“Description?” X questioned.
“Yeah, the description. You know what description means, right?” K seemed even more annoyed.
“I know what it means.” X snapped. “But how do you know what water looks like?”
K just shrugged, before turning towards the exit.
“Come on, we gotta get back soon.” She flew upwards, landing on the ledge.
X followed suit, tracing their steps back through the building. X looked back up at the rusty grate that the drone had fallen through, which he now identified as being part of a weirdly placed catwalk. Scanning the environment, X found that the only entrance to the small alcove would be the hole in the catwalk. The basement that the small room was connected to didn’t have an entrance either, only having the gaping hole in the side of the room, which likely wasn't intended. That would mean that a person would have to chop through the sewer wall to get into the basement and adjoining alcove, or jump off the catwalk. Both of those options didn’t make any sort of sense at all. In fact, the catwalk wasn’t even needed, someone could have just removed the entire basement-and-alcove plan entirely, which also removed the necessity for a catwalk. All in all, whoever designed the building was either high off of some crazy drugs, an idiot, or both.
But, none of these thoughts went through X’s head, as he was only thinking about the devastating loss of his cool plastic bottle.
K hefted herself up onto the rusty catwalk, with X following close behind. K went through the doorway, only for a rather eventful event to stop her momentarily.
A rocket screamed through the air, smacking K straight in the chest. The resulting explosion blew X backwards and K apart, with oil splashing onto the ground in the process. With a clatter, X hit the ground, slightly dazed. He looked to his left to see what looked like the arm of K, twitching slightly. X tried to get up, only to fall again, after he put his weight on a hand that wasn’t there.
X, seeing the failure of Operation: GTFU, adjusted his position so that he could get up with his other hand only, which was thankfully still there. Investigating his left arm, he could see that everything down from the elbow had been separated from himself in the blast. He didn’t have time to look for it or go get it, so he simply let the matter go.
Standing up, X stared through the smoke, before diving back down onto the ground when another rocket came streaking past him. It scratched his face, sending small sparks up, before heading down the other hallway. X pointed his own rocket launcher into the fog, before firing off a flurry of shots. He heard explosions, but wasn’t rewarded with screams or grunts of pain. Problematic, to say the least.
X took the opportunity to kick K’s assorted dismembered body parts down into the lower alcove, where she should eventually reassemble herself. She was really taking a beating recently, and she would probably be frustrated about that when X was all done, but that wasn’t his problem-
X nearly met the same fate as K when another rocket flew from the open doorway, the fog starting to clear up. X jumped up and over the RPG, letting it fly into the unexplored depths of the building. He couldn’t do this dance forever, so he made the executive decision to charge into the unknown.
* * *
Anyway, I'll be posting the next part tomorrow, so hang on tight for the singular person that made it to the end. No need to like, this is purely for my own benefit. See ya.
2023.06.03 01:56 Dismal-Jellyfish ‘Shadow Banks’ Account for Half of the World’s Assets—and Pose Growing Risks: 'no one seems to have a firm handle on the risks that nonbank financial entities could pose if numerous trades and investments sour.'
 | Source: https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/shadow-banks-account-for-half-of-the-worlds-assetsand-pose-growing-risks-8f4b5961 submitted by Dismal-Jellyfish to Superstonk [link] [comments] The sudden failure this year of three sizable American banks demonstrated one way in which the financial system can “break” as the Federal Reserve and other central banks press a campaign to normalize interest rates.https://preview.redd.it/cgymd43tvo3b1.png?width=1050&format=png&auto=webp&s=bcacf11db745f213831425f72b9c0030210d287f The nonbank financial system now controls $239 trillion, or almost half of the world’s financial assets, according to the Financial Stability Board. That’s up from 42% in 2008, and has doubled since the 2008-09 financial crisis. Postcrisis regulations helped shore up the nation’s biggest banks, but the restrictions that were imposed, coupled with years of ultralow interest rates, fueled the explosive growth of nonbank finance.https://preview.redd.it/47cnlnpewo3b1.png?width=1030&format=png&auto=webp&s=8fc71b7cf09f7ba1523db038e13efd6354640deb To be sure, these financial intermediaries play an important role in the economy, lending to many businesses too small or indebted to tap institutional markets. Moreover, while talk is rife on Wall Street about problems brewing in shadow banking, few have surfaced since the Fed began tightening monetary policy in the first quarter of 2022. To the contrary, disruptions caused by rising interest rates have been most evident so far in the regulated banking sector. And any turmoil in the nonbank arena could prove relatively benign, especially if the economy avoids a severe recession.https://preview.redd.it/vxfirsbuwo3b1.png?width=1042&format=png&auto=webp&s=d7e6505de660463394cd513dd7dce78326151fdb While many nonbank entities are regulated in some way, no regulator has attempted to assess the overall financial stability of the nonbank world. The Financial Stability Oversight Council, or FSOC, is now seeking comments on designating some nonbank institutions as systemic and subjecting some to Federal Reserve supervision. That would reverse some of the changes made during the last administration. Private CreditRapid growth in the world of finance tends to draw attention, and few business segments have grown since the financial crisis as much as private credit. Private-credit providers typically lend directly to midsize, privately owned businesses that generate from $10 million to $1 billion of revenue and can’t get funding in the institutional market.https://preview.redd.it/ywxrglx0xo3b1.png?width=1031&format=png&auto=webp&s=2f37c7b40949d458cabeb5beab46227134bea781 As banks retreated after the crisis and each minicrisis that followed, these financial intermediaries stepped in. Private-credit assets have mushroomed to nearly $1.5 trillion from $230 billion in 2008**,** putting the private-credit market in the league of the leveraged-loan and high-yield markets.https://preview.redd.it/8kxrl8eexo3b1.png?width=396&format=png&auto=webp&s=a0fc605506d01955897874827fecff078f2e73ba Bond FundsUnlike private-credit funds, which lock up investors’ money for a set period, most mutual funds allow investors to buy and sell whenever they want, offering daily liquidity. But that could turn problematic for bond funds under certain conditions, as some corporate bonds change hands only once a month—and less frequently in times of stress. If credit losses pile up or markets become stressed, some policy makers fear that bond funds could face demands to liquidate holdings at fire-sale prices, as investors scramble to sell funds with assets that have become illiquid.https://preview.redd.it/4dj15yznxo3b1.png?width=1017&format=png&auto=webp&s=14d2e757c94a8a0d3a63cc276dff2b214821e715 Bid/ask spreads, a common gauge of a market’s liquidity, have widened in areas such as high-yield and emerging market debt to levels last seen in the spring of 2020, according to the IMF.https://preview.redd.it/kxm1xjgrxo3b1.png?width=1016&format=png&auto=webp&s=eea6c6ccea84a93126edda215efa99bb98300c2e Nonbank Mortgage LendersThe mortgage market has seen dramatic changes in the years since the global financial crisis. The business of originating and servicing loans has migrated steadily away from banks, with nonbank lenders accounting for more than two-thirds of all originations. Rocket Cos. ’ [ticker: RKT] Rocket Mortgage unit and UWM Holdings ’ [UWMC] United Wholesale Mortgage top the list of the biggest lenders.https://preview.redd.it/5p3dewayxo3b1.png?width=1051&format=png&auto=webp&s=b398b224d9378bc4159a61405d55fd616238b93d Nancy Wallace, a finance and real estate professor at the University of California, Berkeley Haas School of Business, has been warning for years about these nonbank lenders’ business model. She fears that a rise in defaults could lead to disruptions in the mortgage and housing markets. TLDRS:Shorter Version:
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2023.06.03 01:24 Late_Builder6990 Behemoth, Strange Beast
“Behold, Behemoth,
which I made as I made you;
He eats grass like an ox.
16 Behold, his strength in his loins,
and his power in the muscles of his belly.
17 He makes his tail stiff like a cedar;
the sinews of his thighs are knit together.
18 His bones are tubes of bronze,
His limbs like bars of iron.
19 “He is the first of the works of God;
let him who made him bring near his sword!
20 For the mountains yield food for him
where all the wild beasts play.
21 Under the lotus plants he lies,
in the shelter of the reeds and in the marsh.
22 For his shade the lotus trees cover him;
the willows of the brook surround him.
23 Behold, if the river is turbulent he is not frightened;
he is confident though Jordan rushes against his mouth.
24 Can one take him by his eyes,
or pierce his nose with a snare?” Job 40:15-24
Many Kaiju, and many large animals are given the title of Behemoth to describe their large size. And going as far back as the Biblical records, it was unclear as to what the Behemoth was in the scripture. That was until one Kaiju was given this name. However, Behemoth wasn't found in the Middle East, but deep in the Amazon. Xenotherium amazonensis “Strange Beast from the Amazon”.
Among the Mammalian Kaiju, Behemoth at first was hard to pin down where he fits until analysis of shed fur & genetics testing revealed that his closest relatives are ground sloths, being part of the Tribe Lestodontini. This is due to his massive tusks being similar to Lestodon & Thinobadistes. However, the strange clawed hands are convergently similar to Eremotherium & Megatherium.
Like other ground sloths, he has plates of bony skin, osteoderms that cover his back along with a larger dome cap of solid bone at the top of the head. Lastly, regarding Xenarthans in general, Behemoth has a low metabolism & poor color vision. The former results in him having a lower body temperature compared to a similarly sized mammalian Kaiju.
Behemoth might be the last of his kind. Extensive tunnels found in the Amazon that could only have been created by other members of his species and contained sub-fossil remains belonging to Xenotherium.
These reveal individuals of all ages with much longer trunks than what Behemoth has. Analysis of the area shows the tip is riddled with scar tissue, as if the majority of Behemoth’s trunk was either bitten or clawed off. By what is unknown. Much like other mammals with trunks such as Proboscideans & Tapirs who rely on their trunks for feeding, the reduced length would have negative consequences. . . if Behemoth also didn’t have a long muscular tongue to assist in foraging.
A final point of discussion is how Behemoth’s body has incorporated plant life growing on his body. Much like the diminutive Three-toed sloth, Behemoth’s fur is covered in plants, the main one being mats of moss on his limbs & torso. His tusks & arms also contain large hanging vines. This plant life is used as a temporary energy boost to support Behemoth in leaner times, but also can be used for offense.
Prior to being sealed away in the Kaiju Gems, Behemoth was seen hibernating deep in the Amazon Basin, not far from Fordlândia.
During the 2nd Kaiju War, Behemoth would be used by Dalton Goldenrod, and as such under command by Anguirus. The two are close friends, each bonding over how they maintain care of the land.
submitted by Late_Builder6990 to Monsterverse [link] [comments]
which I made as I made you;
He eats grass like an ox.
16 Behold, his strength in his loins,
and his power in the muscles of his belly.
17 He makes his tail stiff like a cedar;
the sinews of his thighs are knit together.
18 His bones are tubes of bronze,
His limbs like bars of iron.
19 “He is the first of the works of God;
let him who made him bring near his sword!
20 For the mountains yield food for him
where all the wild beasts play.
21 Under the lotus plants he lies,
in the shelter of the reeds and in the marsh.
22 For his shade the lotus trees cover him;
the willows of the brook surround him.
23 Behold, if the river is turbulent he is not frightened;
he is confident though Jordan rushes against his mouth.
24 Can one take him by his eyes,
or pierce his nose with a snare?” Job 40:15-24
Many Kaiju, and many large animals are given the title of Behemoth to describe their large size. And going as far back as the Biblical records, it was unclear as to what the Behemoth was in the scripture. That was until one Kaiju was given this name. However, Behemoth wasn't found in the Middle East, but deep in the Amazon. Xenotherium amazonensis “Strange Beast from the Amazon”.
Among the Mammalian Kaiju, Behemoth at first was hard to pin down where he fits until analysis of shed fur & genetics testing revealed that his closest relatives are ground sloths, being part of the Tribe Lestodontini. This is due to his massive tusks being similar to Lestodon & Thinobadistes. However, the strange clawed hands are convergently similar to Eremotherium & Megatherium.
Like other ground sloths, he has plates of bony skin, osteoderms that cover his back along with a larger dome cap of solid bone at the top of the head. Lastly, regarding Xenarthans in general, Behemoth has a low metabolism & poor color vision. The former results in him having a lower body temperature compared to a similarly sized mammalian Kaiju.
Behemoth might be the last of his kind. Extensive tunnels found in the Amazon that could only have been created by other members of his species and contained sub-fossil remains belonging to Xenotherium.
These reveal individuals of all ages with much longer trunks than what Behemoth has. Analysis of the area shows the tip is riddled with scar tissue, as if the majority of Behemoth’s trunk was either bitten or clawed off. By what is unknown. Much like other mammals with trunks such as Proboscideans & Tapirs who rely on their trunks for feeding, the reduced length would have negative consequences. . . if Behemoth also didn’t have a long muscular tongue to assist in foraging.
A final point of discussion is how Behemoth’s body has incorporated plant life growing on his body. Much like the diminutive Three-toed sloth, Behemoth’s fur is covered in plants, the main one being mats of moss on his limbs & torso. His tusks & arms also contain large hanging vines. This plant life is used as a temporary energy boost to support Behemoth in leaner times, but also can be used for offense.
Prior to being sealed away in the Kaiju Gems, Behemoth was seen hibernating deep in the Amazon Basin, not far from Fordlândia.
During the 2nd Kaiju War, Behemoth would be used by Dalton Goldenrod, and as such under command by Anguirus. The two are close friends, each bonding over how they maintain care of the land.
- Behemoth, Strange Beast
- Appearance: Not unlike his appearance in KOTM. Though the tusks are asymmetrical- left one is shorter & pointed forward while the right one is longer & curving. Raised osteoderms cover his back like some retro paleo-art of Ground sloths. Walks on knuckles and side of his back feet. Coat of fur varies based on climate- woolly in colder regions & shorter in warmer regions. A short tail is a fat reserve and counterweight for his large tusks.
- Origin: Fordlandia, Northern Brazil
- Species: Lestodont (Xenotherium amazonensis)
- Quote: “He’s not fat! He’s just poofy!”- Dalton defending Behemoth’s appearance
- Roar: KOTM mixed with low-frequency elephant rumbles & trumpets
- Category: 4
- Faction: Earth Defender
- Height: 107 meters tall (quadruped) 152 meters (biped)
- Length: 54 meters (Tusks) 108 meters long (body)
- Weight: 54,000 tons
- Land Speed: Slow
- Burrowing Speed: Slow
- Swimming Speed: Slow
- Damage Type: Edged & Impact
- Physical Attacks: Headbutt, tusks, punches, body-checks, stomps
- Abilities:
- Immune to conventional weaponry
- Durability aided by fatty skin & osteoderms covering his back, resulting in his hide being moderately resilient against energy attacks. Osteoderms are infused with metals & other minerals, aiding his defense against intense heat.
- Huge tusks used for combat for bludgeoning & goring.
- Powerful arms capable of carving through stone & steel, & rending flesh with ease.
- Any plant spores he leaves behind will take root, helping restore ecosystems.
- Body covered in moss and vines crisscross his arms & tusks.
- Able to pick up low-frequency ultrasounds for communication but also able to detect hidden opponents, even those underground.
- Some level of regenerative power, able to regrow damaged or broken tusks.
- Fur coat changes based on the climate- shaggy fur for colder climates and less fur in hotter climates.
- Poo serves as excellent fertilizer.
- Superpowers:
- Phytokinesis: Behemoth’s plants are for more than just storing energy. They can also be used for offense & defense. This includes forming extra armor on his torso in the form of osteoderm/tough bark and the vines on his arms & tusks can be extended into long thorny whips for his main use of long range attack that isn’t throwing debris. Behemoth’s arms & tusks can sprout spiky thorns to add extra sharp points in physical combat and deter grappling.
- Seismic Stomps: Behemoth’s other ranged attack is less focused. By focusing much of his weight into a single fist or his tusks, and slamming downwards, this Tusked sloth can generate localized earthquakes to knock opponents over or destabilize the ground.
- Cactus Wall: Behemoth’s trump card combines both his Phytokinesis & Seismic stomps to create a veritable bramble wall of cacti. (Essentially a wall of Rhodocactus trees). This wall is easily taller than Behemoth and is used as a last resort of defense and primarily a way to buy time. This wall, while impressive, does have flaws. Depending on location, the bramble wall can be walked around, flown over, or dug under. The wall can also be set ablaze or hacked apart which will take time.
- Weaknesses:
- Lacking in beam projectiles
- Extremely sharp blades, such as Gigan’s Rotary Cutter or Multi-Blades, can cut deep into his hide.
- Slow speed
- Limited use Mana
2023.06.03 00:58 ToastTurtle Transcript from the May 31st, 2023, Q3 Webinar Update for those who like to read rather than watch.
Reliq Health Technologies Inc. (RHT:TSXV) (OTCPK:RQHTF) Q3 2023 Earnings Call May 31, 2023 12:00 PM ET
Company Participants
Lisa Crossley - Chief Executive Officer
Lisa Crossley
Thank you for joining us. Today is May 31, 2023. Its 12 noon Eastern Time and 9:00 a.m. Pacific Time. This is Reliq Health Technologies’ Corporate Update. I am Lisa Crossley, the CEO. And, this will be an overview of our Q3 financials as well as outlook forward.
Please review the forward-looking statements disclaimer at your leisure and interpret any remarks from today's presentation in that context. For today's webinar, I'm going to provide a brief overview of the Q3 fiscal year 2023 financials, for the period ending March 31, 2023. I'll provide an outlook for the remainder of the calendar year, and then go through some very quick shareholder FAQs and the upcoming webinar dates subsequent to this one.
Overall, what I except to cover during this webinar is fairly brief. As you all know, we made some substantive changes to our business model beginning in January of this year, and the quarter that we're reporting on here, which was two months ago, it ended was really the quarter where we first started to implement those changes. So, not a lot of the progress that we made is reflected in these financials, but will certainly be reflected in future financials.
Let's jump into the Q3 results. So, the highlights for the quarter ending March 31, were an increase in revenue of over 88% to roughly $4.7 million. We also increased our revenue from the higher margin software and services sales by 69% to about $1.8 million. You will definitely see much more significant increases in software sales going forward. This quarter, we were a little bit hampered by the hardware orders that we'll talk about a little more in a little more detail in subsequent slides, but because we had some large hardware orders that were deferred, the software revenues associated with those hardware orders, were also deferred.
As I've disclosed before. And, but you will certainly begin to see much more significant growth on the software side over the rest of this year and beyond. This was our first profitable quarter, and I think that definitely does reflect some of the changes that we've made to the business model. We had a net gain of $731,000 and our adjusted EBITDA has improved by over 2000% relative to the same period last year, and that's primarily just adjusting for non-cash expenses. They're very small, non-recurring expenses in that adjustment.
During the last three months, we certainly made some significant progress on the business development front. We continue to expand the skilled nursing facility space, adding over a 120 new skilled nursing facilities over the last five months, actually, the quarter ending March 31 and subsequent. And we also signed new contracts with some very significant large healthcare organizations, one of which was a large U.S. Healthcare System that operates over 1,200 care centers across seven U.S. states, including the skilled nursing facilities, hospitals, home health agencies, hospice agencies, and primary care clinics. And they have over 10 million patient encounters a year across their network, and they and the other large clients we've signed, do very extensive due diligence before they select a company to be their partner for remote patient monitoring, behavioral health integration, chronic care management, transitional care management, etcetera.
So, it is really a testament to our unique value proposition in this space and to the future potential for this Company. We’ve also signed a new contract with a large U.S. Health Plan that operates accountable care organizations in five U.S. states with over 3,000 doctors and more than a million patients, and this client, in particular, it's our first health plan, but they are also subsidiary of one of the nation's largest providers of hospital and healthcare services, who is also a Fortune 500 company.
So, we really are getting into some of the blue chip clients. And I think it's important to remember that with these very large clients, they like to start out with a phase deployment, I’ve talked about that a lot over the years, and that's very typical in healthcare for healthcare software deployments that they will start small rollout to a specific geography or a specific type of facility or even to a subset of patients from a given facility, and then expand from there.
So, the initial deployments that we've announced with these large clients are relatively small compared to their patient population overall, but they are the first step in phase deployments. So as we have more details, more established implementation plans with these larger clients, we’ll be able to provide updates, but certainly our expectation is that we will see significant growth from these new clients beyond the initial phase. So, what we've announced today is really effectively the tip of the iceberg.
The outlook for the remainder of the year and beyond, as you all know, historically, the Company has been very focused on new business development and capturing market share that real estate grab that we talk about. But as of the beginning of this year, we really expanded our focus to include real significant efforts towards improving profitability and cash flows. I think you can see the improvement in profitability very clearly in these financials.
The cash flows are going to come as collections pickup and certainly so are the topline revenues associated with improved adherence, but I'll discuss that a little bit further in subsequent slides.
As we've disclosed on previous webinars, the Company has $15 million in contracted hardware sales. So we've received orders from clients for $15 million worth of hardware, and we've started shipping the hardware, which is the point at which we can recognize revenue, but the majority of the orders are expected to be fulfilled by the end of the fiscal year. So we'd started shipping in the quarter ending March 31, but the bulk of that revenue will land in the current quarter, which ends June 30.
As you know, hardware sold on 12 month to 24 month payment plans, so we've had some of the initial scheduled payments for the hardware that's already been shipped come in, but we'll see those payments ramp up significantly in the second half of the calendar year, once we've been able to ship all of that hardware in the current fiscal year. And then all of those hardware orders will translate to subsequent software revenue. So, it is a very meaningful order for the Company not just in terms of the hardware revenue, but in terms of the software and services revenue that will follow behind.
Since January 1, Company has been very focused on improving patient adherence by taking over adherence management from clients. And I want to address this particular topic in some detail, because I think there's an expectation in some quarters that when we say we're taking over managing adherence, that we flip a switch and that happens overnight. And that's certainly not the case. We made some good progress in Q1 getting percentage of our patient’s population or client population moved over to Reliq handling the adherence management. But even once we get those patients, it does take a month or two, but most three for us to get those patients on-boarded and, well they're already on-boarded, but comfortable with us managing the adherence and actually start to improve.
So, we do see dramatic improvements in adherence in these patients, once we've taken over managing that piece from their clinicians, but it's not an instantaneous or overnight change. So you aren't going to see much of an impact on topline revenues in the quarter ending March 31, that our results of improving the adherence. You will start to see the impact of the improvements in adherence management in the quarter ending June 30, but where you'll really start to see the significant increases, and the impact on revenues will be in the second half of the year.
So, certainly, it'll be a much more significant impact. It'll have much more significant impact on the quarter that will report or that is ending June 30, but it will continue to improve beyond that. So, the average adherence is expected to exceed 70% by the end of the calendar year.
Adherence levels interestingly appear to be consistently higher with the patients from the larger healthcare organizations than from the individual physician practices. So historically, we have had a customer base that was primarily individual physician practices and home health agencies beginning late last year 2022, we started to acquire more and more of these larger healthcare clients, skilled nursing facilities, accountable care organizations, and other health plans, etcetera. And we find with those groups that they have resources, for example, with the skilled nursing facility, where they will have these patients trained in using the system before they even are discharged, which really helps with adherence levels, but also their performance metrics are so well aligned with what we do as a business that we see more, I'll call it motivation from the larger clients to really work with patients and to commit whatever is necessary in order to ensure that their patient population is adherent.
It's a little bit different from the way that the individual physician practices in the home health agencies approach, RPM and CCM. So, that's to our benefit because going forward, we expect that the majority of our clients will be these larger health care organizations, certainly the majority of patients that we have on our platform will come from the large clients. So, that's going to make it easier for us to improve adherence levels even beyond the 70% level as we move into 2024 and beyond.
Collections, again, I want to emphasize it's something that we put a lot of effort into and that is improving dramatically, but we really didn't start to see the impact of our efforts, the account manager's efforts, until March. So, there's not a lot of collections that are reflected in the financials ending March 31, but you will certainly see a significant impact of our efforts in accelerating collections in the quarter ending June 30. And by the time we get to the end of June, we should have all of our clients caught up on all of their receivable, all of our receivables, their payables. And then going forward, we will be able to keep all of our clients on a regular payment schedule so that they, we don't have that same issue where we have these aging receivables.
Remind everyone that there will always be a portion of our receivables that will relate to hardware that's on 12 month to 24 month payment plans. So, there will always be a fairly large receivable number on our books, but there will be essentially no stale receivables, and/or these very aging receivables that we see around the software and services revenue where clients have needed a little bit of nagging in order pay. And because we are going to be receiving or collecting or have started to collect all of the receivables that are expected by the end of June. We will be in a much better cash position going forward, for the second half of the year and beyond.
Just some very brief shareholder FAQs, we have been getting a lot of questions about Accountable Care Organizations, with ACOs. These are groups of physicians and sometimes other healthcare providers, who aren't necessarily located in the same facility or even in the same city, but they've effectively banded together on a back office basis, to form Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services approved entity that is compensated based on value.
Now for CMS, value means patients have better health outcomes, and therefore lower health care costs. So, CMS financially incents the ACOs to reduce health care costs by using a shared savings model. So, the ACO members will receive a portion of the cost savings that they achieve for patients. And the best way to reduce costs for these patients is by reducing hospitalizations. That's really where the bulk of the costs for the chronic disease patients come from, these exacerbations that translate to a hospital stay.
Our platform, iUGO Care platform has been proven to reduce hospitalizations and the associated health care costs by over 80%. So, our solutions are perfectly aligned with the ACO's performance metrics, as they are also very well aligned with skilled nursing facilities and many of these other large healthcare organizations.
So, we expect that we will start to see increasing traction with the ACOs now that we've landed our first really very large and multistate ACO. This is not raised. This next point has a question, but it is something that we are asked consistently. So I just want to repeat that we don't expect to need to raise capital or take on debt to fund operations. And we expect to initiate a share buyback program later this year. So, soon as we have sufficient free cash flow, we will pull the trigger on that, because obviously we want to initiate the share buyback at a compelling price point for the Company.
Upcoming webinar, so as I've said repeatedly, I think there will be a lot more meaningful data that will demonstrate the improvements in adherence and collections, but when we close out the quarter that ends June 30, now obviously that's our fiscal yearend. So, we will be issuing the Annual Audited Financials or filing them in October of this year, but we will hold an interim webinar on well, in the middle of July, the exact date will be determined in June, and we'll announce that date in probably early July.
And at that point, I think we'll be able to get a lot more granular with our reporting and sharing the various metrics with all of you, so that it's easier to build your models. I know it's been a bit frustrating, but the Company has been very focused on making the necessary changes, so that the business model going forward really supports and not just the really strong revenue growth, but profitability and strong cash flows.
So, we've needed do that work, and I think we'll be at a point where we have all of the clients moved over to us managing adherence and that will allow us, I think, going forward to provide more details in our reporting [interim] (ph), probably help some of you construct the models that you, I know, like to work on.
And so as I say, we are filing the Annual Audited Financials in October, we'll do this interim progress update webinar in July, but we'll also do a second update webinar in early September, and again exact date is to be determined, but that will provide another touch point between now and when we do file the Annual Audited Financials, so that we can share the meaningful progress that we'll be able to show from here going forward and without having to wait months, and months, and months to file that those Annual Audited Statements.
Thank you very much for joining us. We greatly appreciate your time. The webinar will be available on our website later today, as soon as we are able to get it up which is sometimes in our control and sometimes not depending on the webinar provider, but we will get that up as soon as we can.
So, again, thank you very much for joining us.
Link to the webinar: https://www.reliqhealth.com/investors/#single/0
submitted by ToastTurtle to ReliqhealthStock [link] [comments]
Company Participants
Lisa Crossley - Chief Executive Officer
Lisa Crossley
Thank you for joining us. Today is May 31, 2023. Its 12 noon Eastern Time and 9:00 a.m. Pacific Time. This is Reliq Health Technologies’ Corporate Update. I am Lisa Crossley, the CEO. And, this will be an overview of our Q3 financials as well as outlook forward.
Please review the forward-looking statements disclaimer at your leisure and interpret any remarks from today's presentation in that context. For today's webinar, I'm going to provide a brief overview of the Q3 fiscal year 2023 financials, for the period ending March 31, 2023. I'll provide an outlook for the remainder of the calendar year, and then go through some very quick shareholder FAQs and the upcoming webinar dates subsequent to this one.
Overall, what I except to cover during this webinar is fairly brief. As you all know, we made some substantive changes to our business model beginning in January of this year, and the quarter that we're reporting on here, which was two months ago, it ended was really the quarter where we first started to implement those changes. So, not a lot of the progress that we made is reflected in these financials, but will certainly be reflected in future financials.
Let's jump into the Q3 results. So, the highlights for the quarter ending March 31, were an increase in revenue of over 88% to roughly $4.7 million. We also increased our revenue from the higher margin software and services sales by 69% to about $1.8 million. You will definitely see much more significant increases in software sales going forward. This quarter, we were a little bit hampered by the hardware orders that we'll talk about a little more in a little more detail in subsequent slides, but because we had some large hardware orders that were deferred, the software revenues associated with those hardware orders, were also deferred.
As I've disclosed before. And, but you will certainly begin to see much more significant growth on the software side over the rest of this year and beyond. This was our first profitable quarter, and I think that definitely does reflect some of the changes that we've made to the business model. We had a net gain of $731,000 and our adjusted EBITDA has improved by over 2000% relative to the same period last year, and that's primarily just adjusting for non-cash expenses. They're very small, non-recurring expenses in that adjustment.
During the last three months, we certainly made some significant progress on the business development front. We continue to expand the skilled nursing facility space, adding over a 120 new skilled nursing facilities over the last five months, actually, the quarter ending March 31 and subsequent. And we also signed new contracts with some very significant large healthcare organizations, one of which was a large U.S. Healthcare System that operates over 1,200 care centers across seven U.S. states, including the skilled nursing facilities, hospitals, home health agencies, hospice agencies, and primary care clinics. And they have over 10 million patient encounters a year across their network, and they and the other large clients we've signed, do very extensive due diligence before they select a company to be their partner for remote patient monitoring, behavioral health integration, chronic care management, transitional care management, etcetera.
So, it is really a testament to our unique value proposition in this space and to the future potential for this Company. We’ve also signed a new contract with a large U.S. Health Plan that operates accountable care organizations in five U.S. states with over 3,000 doctors and more than a million patients, and this client, in particular, it's our first health plan, but they are also subsidiary of one of the nation's largest providers of hospital and healthcare services, who is also a Fortune 500 company.
So, we really are getting into some of the blue chip clients. And I think it's important to remember that with these very large clients, they like to start out with a phase deployment, I’ve talked about that a lot over the years, and that's very typical in healthcare for healthcare software deployments that they will start small rollout to a specific geography or a specific type of facility or even to a subset of patients from a given facility, and then expand from there.
So, the initial deployments that we've announced with these large clients are relatively small compared to their patient population overall, but they are the first step in phase deployments. So as we have more details, more established implementation plans with these larger clients, we’ll be able to provide updates, but certainly our expectation is that we will see significant growth from these new clients beyond the initial phase. So, what we've announced today is really effectively the tip of the iceberg.
The outlook for the remainder of the year and beyond, as you all know, historically, the Company has been very focused on new business development and capturing market share that real estate grab that we talk about. But as of the beginning of this year, we really expanded our focus to include real significant efforts towards improving profitability and cash flows. I think you can see the improvement in profitability very clearly in these financials.
The cash flows are going to come as collections pickup and certainly so are the topline revenues associated with improved adherence, but I'll discuss that a little bit further in subsequent slides.
As we've disclosed on previous webinars, the Company has $15 million in contracted hardware sales. So we've received orders from clients for $15 million worth of hardware, and we've started shipping the hardware, which is the point at which we can recognize revenue, but the majority of the orders are expected to be fulfilled by the end of the fiscal year. So we'd started shipping in the quarter ending March 31, but the bulk of that revenue will land in the current quarter, which ends June 30.
As you know, hardware sold on 12 month to 24 month payment plans, so we've had some of the initial scheduled payments for the hardware that's already been shipped come in, but we'll see those payments ramp up significantly in the second half of the calendar year, once we've been able to ship all of that hardware in the current fiscal year. And then all of those hardware orders will translate to subsequent software revenue. So, it is a very meaningful order for the Company not just in terms of the hardware revenue, but in terms of the software and services revenue that will follow behind.
Since January 1, Company has been very focused on improving patient adherence by taking over adherence management from clients. And I want to address this particular topic in some detail, because I think there's an expectation in some quarters that when we say we're taking over managing adherence, that we flip a switch and that happens overnight. And that's certainly not the case. We made some good progress in Q1 getting percentage of our patient’s population or client population moved over to Reliq handling the adherence management. But even once we get those patients, it does take a month or two, but most three for us to get those patients on-boarded and, well they're already on-boarded, but comfortable with us managing the adherence and actually start to improve.
So, we do see dramatic improvements in adherence in these patients, once we've taken over managing that piece from their clinicians, but it's not an instantaneous or overnight change. So you aren't going to see much of an impact on topline revenues in the quarter ending March 31, that our results of improving the adherence. You will start to see the impact of the improvements in adherence management in the quarter ending June 30, but where you'll really start to see the significant increases, and the impact on revenues will be in the second half of the year.
So, certainly, it'll be a much more significant impact. It'll have much more significant impact on the quarter that will report or that is ending June 30, but it will continue to improve beyond that. So, the average adherence is expected to exceed 70% by the end of the calendar year.
Adherence levels interestingly appear to be consistently higher with the patients from the larger healthcare organizations than from the individual physician practices. So historically, we have had a customer base that was primarily individual physician practices and home health agencies beginning late last year 2022, we started to acquire more and more of these larger healthcare clients, skilled nursing facilities, accountable care organizations, and other health plans, etcetera. And we find with those groups that they have resources, for example, with the skilled nursing facility, where they will have these patients trained in using the system before they even are discharged, which really helps with adherence levels, but also their performance metrics are so well aligned with what we do as a business that we see more, I'll call it motivation from the larger clients to really work with patients and to commit whatever is necessary in order to ensure that their patient population is adherent.
It's a little bit different from the way that the individual physician practices in the home health agencies approach, RPM and CCM. So, that's to our benefit because going forward, we expect that the majority of our clients will be these larger health care organizations, certainly the majority of patients that we have on our platform will come from the large clients. So, that's going to make it easier for us to improve adherence levels even beyond the 70% level as we move into 2024 and beyond.
Collections, again, I want to emphasize it's something that we put a lot of effort into and that is improving dramatically, but we really didn't start to see the impact of our efforts, the account manager's efforts, until March. So, there's not a lot of collections that are reflected in the financials ending March 31, but you will certainly see a significant impact of our efforts in accelerating collections in the quarter ending June 30. And by the time we get to the end of June, we should have all of our clients caught up on all of their receivable, all of our receivables, their payables. And then going forward, we will be able to keep all of our clients on a regular payment schedule so that they, we don't have that same issue where we have these aging receivables.
Remind everyone that there will always be a portion of our receivables that will relate to hardware that's on 12 month to 24 month payment plans. So, there will always be a fairly large receivable number on our books, but there will be essentially no stale receivables, and/or these very aging receivables that we see around the software and services revenue where clients have needed a little bit of nagging in order pay. And because we are going to be receiving or collecting or have started to collect all of the receivables that are expected by the end of June. We will be in a much better cash position going forward, for the second half of the year and beyond.
Just some very brief shareholder FAQs, we have been getting a lot of questions about Accountable Care Organizations, with ACOs. These are groups of physicians and sometimes other healthcare providers, who aren't necessarily located in the same facility or even in the same city, but they've effectively banded together on a back office basis, to form Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services approved entity that is compensated based on value.
Now for CMS, value means patients have better health outcomes, and therefore lower health care costs. So, CMS financially incents the ACOs to reduce health care costs by using a shared savings model. So, the ACO members will receive a portion of the cost savings that they achieve for patients. And the best way to reduce costs for these patients is by reducing hospitalizations. That's really where the bulk of the costs for the chronic disease patients come from, these exacerbations that translate to a hospital stay.
Our platform, iUGO Care platform has been proven to reduce hospitalizations and the associated health care costs by over 80%. So, our solutions are perfectly aligned with the ACO's performance metrics, as they are also very well aligned with skilled nursing facilities and many of these other large healthcare organizations.
So, we expect that we will start to see increasing traction with the ACOs now that we've landed our first really very large and multistate ACO. This is not raised. This next point has a question, but it is something that we are asked consistently. So I just want to repeat that we don't expect to need to raise capital or take on debt to fund operations. And we expect to initiate a share buyback program later this year. So, soon as we have sufficient free cash flow, we will pull the trigger on that, because obviously we want to initiate the share buyback at a compelling price point for the Company.
Upcoming webinar, so as I've said repeatedly, I think there will be a lot more meaningful data that will demonstrate the improvements in adherence and collections, but when we close out the quarter that ends June 30, now obviously that's our fiscal yearend. So, we will be issuing the Annual Audited Financials or filing them in October of this year, but we will hold an interim webinar on well, in the middle of July, the exact date will be determined in June, and we'll announce that date in probably early July.
And at that point, I think we'll be able to get a lot more granular with our reporting and sharing the various metrics with all of you, so that it's easier to build your models. I know it's been a bit frustrating, but the Company has been very focused on making the necessary changes, so that the business model going forward really supports and not just the really strong revenue growth, but profitability and strong cash flows.
So, we've needed do that work, and I think we'll be at a point where we have all of the clients moved over to us managing adherence and that will allow us, I think, going forward to provide more details in our reporting [interim] (ph), probably help some of you construct the models that you, I know, like to work on.
And so as I say, we are filing the Annual Audited Financials in October, we'll do this interim progress update webinar in July, but we'll also do a second update webinar in early September, and again exact date is to be determined, but that will provide another touch point between now and when we do file the Annual Audited Financials, so that we can share the meaningful progress that we'll be able to show from here going forward and without having to wait months, and months, and months to file that those Annual Audited Statements.
Thank you very much for joining us. We greatly appreciate your time. The webinar will be available on our website later today, as soon as we are able to get it up which is sometimes in our control and sometimes not depending on the webinar provider, but we will get that up as soon as we can.
So, again, thank you very much for joining us.
Link to the webinar: https://www.reliqhealth.com/investors/#single/0
2023.06.03 00:01 BigFarmerJoe Preparing For The Coming Battle
So this is a long story but I need some advice from men who have successfully gotten sole custody, preferably in KS.
Found out around 2 mo ago that my stbxw had been cheating on me for close to a year with a coworker I had highly suspected. Found months of pictures and texts, including texts detailing how "honored" her AP felt when my son wanted to cuddle with him in my bed after his intercourse with my wife. Including discussion of giving him "the best blowjob of his life" if they can "get my son to play on his tablet" in the next room for a while.
Near the end I was putting our son to sleep most nights as she was out partying with her boyfriend. Needless to say, all trust is now gone and reconciliation is a non possibility.
The texts I uncovered show that she has been neglectful of our son (he is 2 and can't be left alone.) Also, clearly prioritizing herself over her family, over her son or her son's father. Also, emotionally abusive for confusing him and having him cuddle with a shirtless stranger in my bed.
My son tried to tell me about it, at one point, and she covered it up, later texting her boyfriend that they were going to have to start being more "careful" because my son was telling me about "mommy's English.
The incident bothered me enough to start getting suspicious. In retrospect I can tell that even at his age he felt like something was wrong and was trying to tell me in his baby talk broken english.
I was a SAHD for a year and a half while my son was crawling, it was at this time her affair began. She makes like 55k a year. After her affair started, she started complaining to me about "money issues" as if she was struggling to pay for food, which was odd, because my small business paid all the utilities and rent on our marital home, and her only expenses were food and cahealth insurance and her phone bill.
I had been out of the workforce for a while, but was able to fairly quickly secure a job at a food processing manufacturing facility doing 12 hour days euther 3 or 4 days a week so as to be able to provide childcare on the remaining 3-4 days. The rest of the time she was either "watching" him with her boyfriend at my house or her mom was watching him because she would drive 30 mins to her "mom's house" most days when she wasn't working.
I switched jobs in January after saving up almost 10k from the factory to a job I enjoy more, but pays less. I was tired from the factory and wanted better work/life balance and to spend more time with my family and to work on my marriage, which due to not knowing about the cheating, I was under the impression could still be saved. She was angry about making less $$$, and also because I had more flexibility in my schedule so that made her cheating harder.My current part time job pays 15-20k, but remember, my utilities and housing are all taken care of by my other part time job, without it being taxable income on a payroll, so that's really just insurance/gas/food money.
So my lawyers told me that sole custody to start isn't going to be possible in KS, despite the mountain of evidence of being an unfit parent described above.
We have a temp plan in place and I have my 2 1/2 yr old son 7:30am sunday-7:30pm Wednesday. I got her to agree to this by pointing out that even though I would have him during the day most days, she would still have him for an equal number of hours. She took the bait. I now have my son the majority of the time he is awake.
She has moved back in with her parents who now watch my son 2-3 days a week for her as she is at work. They also watch him when she isn't at work, so she can run errands and go on dates without our son. She claims she has rearranged her work schedule to spend time with him, but I don't believe her due to her social media that I observed prior to finally blocking her forever.
In the last week, she declined to spend memorial day with him despite not working and it having been previously arranged because she had "plans" to do "yard work and housework" with her parents. She had me drop him off at dinnertime and pick him up the next morning. In addition, she had me keep him an extra night on top of that because she needed to "work late" on Wednesday night and wouldn't be able to pick him up.
I now know what "working late" means. She had a scheduled night with her boyfriend and I was acting as her free babysitter.
So far, she really is turning out to be a deadbeat. Hasn't given me a dime despite the fact that I now buy the majority of the food her son eats, spend vastly more time with him than she does, and am struggling to afford my life and am having to greatly adjust my lifestyle to support a child on 15k a year. I'm sure the thought hasn't even crossed her mind.
What's worse, my lawyer wrote up the amount that I contributed to the family finances, which was the entirety of housing and utilities (I manage a business and in exchange recieve housing and utilities, but no cash.) And when he adds that to my income, I might end up STILL being required to pay child support to her despite spending way more time with my son.
So, she's going ti get her babysitter and I might have to write her a check for the privilege of being cheated on in my own bed and finding pictures of it, despite having been a SAHD, despite making way less money than her, despite spending way more time with my son. If that happens, the only way to not be so financially crippled that I have to either go back to the factory or go on food stamps and welfare would be to try for sole custody.
But the real reason I want sole custody is simply because it would be best for my son. It would be better for my son to see his dad doing a job that doesn't make him miserable and not financially crippled due to his mother's selfish actions.
I hope she wants to remain present in some fashion, but I'm starting to think the likelihood of that is low.
The way she seems to be fading back from his life, I don't think she's going to fight very hard. It's clear to me exactly where her priorities are, and my son isn't above herself or her boyfriend. Oh sorry, "fiance." Yes, they have been ENGAGED since at least January. I found out about the infidelity in late march. We're not fully divorced, yet.
Her time with our son while we were married was limited to an hour or so in the morning after doing her makeup for an hour and a half while I watched my son in the next room so he wouldn't mess with her makeup stuff. Then an hour or 2 in the evening, if he was lucky, before he would fall asleep. Near the end I was often getting him to bed on my own.
She does have him more nights than I do right now, and I'm worried the courts won't care that most of the time she spends with him, he is asleep or she is working and not actually spending the time with him. I think she is spending maximum 1.5 days with him during the day, likely less because she gets easily "overwhelmed" and always needed constant breaks from my son. It wasn't odd or uncommon for me to watch him on days I was working as soon as I got home for basically the whole night. I am watching my son solo for 4 full days a week.
Then there's a pesky thought in the back of my head about the odd fact that she brought up my will 3-4 times in the last year, a few of them during arguments. She was worried that my parents would deprive her of my inheritance if I died. Why would I die? There were texts between her boyfriend and her about how much she was going to get in the divorce. At one time her boyfriendcsaid "Wouldn't it be nice if we could skip all this not-fun stuff and go straight to you, me, and (insert son's name)...?"
I don't have any more direct proof than that, but I am of the impression that they were at least in the early stages of planning my murder. Maybe not seriously planning it, but discussing it, hopefully in jest. I've asked my lawyer and don't think I could get a DA to issue subpoenas of their phones without better evidence than a strong suspicion.
So, a woman capable of treating me in this way, of considering my murder, should probably have very little contact with my son. I know that she is an objectively bad person and I'm starting to feel like her involvement might harm him more than it ends up helping him.
My goal is now to have my son Sunday morning - Friday evening so that he goes to school in my town, not hers, which is 30 mins away. I want his time to be spent with the person who always puts him first, I don't want him being second fiddle to her boyfriend or to her, I don't want to see him neglected like I know she will do.
3 of the last 4 times I have picked him up, he has has new injuries. For some reason he never seems to get scraped knees or facial wounds or a bruised ass when he spends 4 days with me. I don't suspect physical abuse at thus time, I just think he's being allowed to run around and nobody is watching him.
I just need to say yes every time she decides to prioritize herself over her son, which will happen frequently, I am starting to infer. My hope is that over a long enough time period I will be able to establish a pattern of spending so much more time with him that a judge might be persuaded that I am the primary parent and award me sole custody.
I really am not doing this to "win" vs her or to "beat" her. I became a parent expecting to have some help raising my child. But she won't even spend holidays with him. She can't even pick him up, she does her best to convince me to do it. If it means more time with my son, I can spend the gas $$$.
But I am bleeding cash. My close to 10k in savings from the factory has dwindled to an emergency fund of 1500. I'm skipping meals to lose weight but also to save the food I have for my son. He hasn't ever gone hungry once and he won't, now. Maybe I should apply for food stamps, but I'm worried that could effect my likelihood of getting custody because it would make it look like I can't afford to have him for more meals. This is NOT a request for a handout, don't need one. I have plenty of family and friends who would help me if my cupboards were bare, and thankfully they are helping me afford my lawyer.
It's just really infuriating how much she has screwed me and my son over, both emotionally and financially. The thought that I might be cutting her a check when she makes more than 3X my income would be adding insult to injury. She has actually financially profited from this, so far, not counting her legal fees. I'm sure her parents are now buying most of her food and she still doesn't pay rent or utilities. Now she doesn't have to pay for my health insurance or car insurance or cell phone, so she's saving hundreds monthly and I'm going uninsured health wise and only have basic liability for my car.
I like my lawyers so far, but they said child support is all determined by a "worksheet" and haven't yet shown me what that worksheet is. Either way, I would want sole custody even if it didn't alter CS. Any advice would be appreciated.
submitted by BigFarmerJoe to SingleDads [link] [comments]
Found out around 2 mo ago that my stbxw had been cheating on me for close to a year with a coworker I had highly suspected. Found months of pictures and texts, including texts detailing how "honored" her AP felt when my son wanted to cuddle with him in my bed after his intercourse with my wife. Including discussion of giving him "the best blowjob of his life" if they can "get my son to play on his tablet" in the next room for a while.
Near the end I was putting our son to sleep most nights as she was out partying with her boyfriend. Needless to say, all trust is now gone and reconciliation is a non possibility.
The texts I uncovered show that she has been neglectful of our son (he is 2 and can't be left alone.) Also, clearly prioritizing herself over her family, over her son or her son's father. Also, emotionally abusive for confusing him and having him cuddle with a shirtless stranger in my bed.
My son tried to tell me about it, at one point, and she covered it up, later texting her boyfriend that they were going to have to start being more "careful" because my son was telling me about "mommy's English.
The incident bothered me enough to start getting suspicious. In retrospect I can tell that even at his age he felt like something was wrong and was trying to tell me in his baby talk broken english.
I was a SAHD for a year and a half while my son was crawling, it was at this time her affair began. She makes like 55k a year. After her affair started, she started complaining to me about "money issues" as if she was struggling to pay for food, which was odd, because my small business paid all the utilities and rent on our marital home, and her only expenses were food and cahealth insurance and her phone bill.
I had been out of the workforce for a while, but was able to fairly quickly secure a job at a food processing manufacturing facility doing 12 hour days euther 3 or 4 days a week so as to be able to provide childcare on the remaining 3-4 days. The rest of the time she was either "watching" him with her boyfriend at my house or her mom was watching him because she would drive 30 mins to her "mom's house" most days when she wasn't working.
I switched jobs in January after saving up almost 10k from the factory to a job I enjoy more, but pays less. I was tired from the factory and wanted better work/life balance and to spend more time with my family and to work on my marriage, which due to not knowing about the cheating, I was under the impression could still be saved. She was angry about making less $$$, and also because I had more flexibility in my schedule so that made her cheating harder.My current part time job pays 15-20k, but remember, my utilities and housing are all taken care of by my other part time job, without it being taxable income on a payroll, so that's really just insurance/gas/food money.
So my lawyers told me that sole custody to start isn't going to be possible in KS, despite the mountain of evidence of being an unfit parent described above.
We have a temp plan in place and I have my 2 1/2 yr old son 7:30am sunday-7:30pm Wednesday. I got her to agree to this by pointing out that even though I would have him during the day most days, she would still have him for an equal number of hours. She took the bait. I now have my son the majority of the time he is awake.
She has moved back in with her parents who now watch my son 2-3 days a week for her as she is at work. They also watch him when she isn't at work, so she can run errands and go on dates without our son. She claims she has rearranged her work schedule to spend time with him, but I don't believe her due to her social media that I observed prior to finally blocking her forever.
In the last week, she declined to spend memorial day with him despite not working and it having been previously arranged because she had "plans" to do "yard work and housework" with her parents. She had me drop him off at dinnertime and pick him up the next morning. In addition, she had me keep him an extra night on top of that because she needed to "work late" on Wednesday night and wouldn't be able to pick him up.
I now know what "working late" means. She had a scheduled night with her boyfriend and I was acting as her free babysitter.
So far, she really is turning out to be a deadbeat. Hasn't given me a dime despite the fact that I now buy the majority of the food her son eats, spend vastly more time with him than she does, and am struggling to afford my life and am having to greatly adjust my lifestyle to support a child on 15k a year. I'm sure the thought hasn't even crossed her mind.
What's worse, my lawyer wrote up the amount that I contributed to the family finances, which was the entirety of housing and utilities (I manage a business and in exchange recieve housing and utilities, but no cash.) And when he adds that to my income, I might end up STILL being required to pay child support to her despite spending way more time with my son.
So, she's going ti get her babysitter and I might have to write her a check for the privilege of being cheated on in my own bed and finding pictures of it, despite having been a SAHD, despite making way less money than her, despite spending way more time with my son. If that happens, the only way to not be so financially crippled that I have to either go back to the factory or go on food stamps and welfare would be to try for sole custody.
But the real reason I want sole custody is simply because it would be best for my son. It would be better for my son to see his dad doing a job that doesn't make him miserable and not financially crippled due to his mother's selfish actions.
I hope she wants to remain present in some fashion, but I'm starting to think the likelihood of that is low.
The way she seems to be fading back from his life, I don't think she's going to fight very hard. It's clear to me exactly where her priorities are, and my son isn't above herself or her boyfriend. Oh sorry, "fiance." Yes, they have been ENGAGED since at least January. I found out about the infidelity in late march. We're not fully divorced, yet.
Her time with our son while we were married was limited to an hour or so in the morning after doing her makeup for an hour and a half while I watched my son in the next room so he wouldn't mess with her makeup stuff. Then an hour or 2 in the evening, if he was lucky, before he would fall asleep. Near the end I was often getting him to bed on my own.
She does have him more nights than I do right now, and I'm worried the courts won't care that most of the time she spends with him, he is asleep or she is working and not actually spending the time with him. I think she is spending maximum 1.5 days with him during the day, likely less because she gets easily "overwhelmed" and always needed constant breaks from my son. It wasn't odd or uncommon for me to watch him on days I was working as soon as I got home for basically the whole night. I am watching my son solo for 4 full days a week.
Then there's a pesky thought in the back of my head about the odd fact that she brought up my will 3-4 times in the last year, a few of them during arguments. She was worried that my parents would deprive her of my inheritance if I died. Why would I die? There were texts between her boyfriend and her about how much she was going to get in the divorce. At one time her boyfriendcsaid "Wouldn't it be nice if we could skip all this not-fun stuff and go straight to you, me, and (insert son's name)...?"
I don't have any more direct proof than that, but I am of the impression that they were at least in the early stages of planning my murder. Maybe not seriously planning it, but discussing it, hopefully in jest. I've asked my lawyer and don't think I could get a DA to issue subpoenas of their phones without better evidence than a strong suspicion.
So, a woman capable of treating me in this way, of considering my murder, should probably have very little contact with my son. I know that she is an objectively bad person and I'm starting to feel like her involvement might harm him more than it ends up helping him.
My goal is now to have my son Sunday morning - Friday evening so that he goes to school in my town, not hers, which is 30 mins away. I want his time to be spent with the person who always puts him first, I don't want him being second fiddle to her boyfriend or to her, I don't want to see him neglected like I know she will do.
3 of the last 4 times I have picked him up, he has has new injuries. For some reason he never seems to get scraped knees or facial wounds or a bruised ass when he spends 4 days with me. I don't suspect physical abuse at thus time, I just think he's being allowed to run around and nobody is watching him.
I just need to say yes every time she decides to prioritize herself over her son, which will happen frequently, I am starting to infer. My hope is that over a long enough time period I will be able to establish a pattern of spending so much more time with him that a judge might be persuaded that I am the primary parent and award me sole custody.
I really am not doing this to "win" vs her or to "beat" her. I became a parent expecting to have some help raising my child. But she won't even spend holidays with him. She can't even pick him up, she does her best to convince me to do it. If it means more time with my son, I can spend the gas $$$.
But I am bleeding cash. My close to 10k in savings from the factory has dwindled to an emergency fund of 1500. I'm skipping meals to lose weight but also to save the food I have for my son. He hasn't ever gone hungry once and he won't, now. Maybe I should apply for food stamps, but I'm worried that could effect my likelihood of getting custody because it would make it look like I can't afford to have him for more meals. This is NOT a request for a handout, don't need one. I have plenty of family and friends who would help me if my cupboards were bare, and thankfully they are helping me afford my lawyer.
It's just really infuriating how much she has screwed me and my son over, both emotionally and financially. The thought that I might be cutting her a check when she makes more than 3X my income would be adding insult to injury. She has actually financially profited from this, so far, not counting her legal fees. I'm sure her parents are now buying most of her food and she still doesn't pay rent or utilities. Now she doesn't have to pay for my health insurance or car insurance or cell phone, so she's saving hundreds monthly and I'm going uninsured health wise and only have basic liability for my car.
I like my lawyers so far, but they said child support is all determined by a "worksheet" and haven't yet shown me what that worksheet is. Either way, I would want sole custody even if it didn't alter CS. Any advice would be appreciated.
2023.06.02 23:59 CazOnReddit Alright, Let's Talk About the 3rd Pick & a Potential Siakam Trade With Portland
 | So have you heard that the Blazers are looking to shop around the 3rd pick and Anfernee Simons for a star forward? Yeah, let's finally get into this. submitted by CazOnReddit to torontoraptors [link] [comments] The Blazers lucked themselves into a rather unique position, both with the pick they got - having jumped from 5th to 3rd in the draft - and with the team who managed to get the 2nd pick being the Charlotte Hornets who are likely to draft forward Brandon Miller over G League Ignite guard Scoot Henderson, with Scoot seemingly falling to 3. This would make Scoot the 2nd young guard the Blazers recently drafted and their 3rd under 25 guard to play next to Dame...if they weren't trying to shop the pick around. They have a perfect opportunity to finally do a rebuild...and yet, here we are with yet another rumor about the Blazers trying to build around Dame and get him the help they've left him without for...what, 8 seasons and counting? Like the Rockets who are alleged to be interested in moving the 4th pick, I don't think the Blazers really should be trying to do a two timelines, pseudo rebuild while contending around Lillard. I also don't think the package they can put together is as great as it's often hyped up to be. As we'll get into, a package around Anfernee and the 3rd pick plus a player or pick or two is quite decent in a vacuum but it certainly isn't good enough to get to get you that Top 10-15 player in the league who can singlehandedly win you a series - if not, a championship. It certainly isn't enough to outbid the likes of the Jazz or, more significantly, the Thunder who may opt for a splash in the offseason as their core develops into a young, hungry playoff team with some greater veteran presence around them. I'm just going to say it: If Portland really is saying "time's up" and putting together one last effort to compete against Dame, they need to do more than get Siakam, O.G., Karl-Anthony Towns or whichever star's name pops up in rumors leading up to the draft. Not to say those players won't improve the team, but none of them - and yes i'm including Siakam - are good enough to elevate a former lottery team like the Blazers over the past 2 seasons to a Top 3 seed, let alone guarantee a championship. A duo of Siakam and Dame, Dame and KAT, etc. can be part of one's core championship team but they need the right supporting pieces around them in order to win. To put it mildly, the Blazers...do not have that. Jusuf Nurkic has seen significant regression as a defender and the bench is one of the few to make the Raptors bench look like a bastion of basketball greatness. It shows on the floor and statistically, and it's a large reason why the Blazers have been one of the worst defensive teams in the league over the past, one of the worst when it comes to rebounding and in general being near the bottom of the Western Conference before they pulled the plug on their most recent season in an attempt to tank for a Top 4 pick. If the Blazers are actually going to commit to Dame, they need to engage in a paradigm shift this offseason. Rework the starting 5, the bench and go all-in getting Loyalty McLoyal the team he should have had around him for years instead of endlessly running it back with minor tweaks to who his #2 is. That means either getting your pick back from the Bulls and shopping the 4 firsts/3 swaps you can or removing the protections and dealing out the 3/3 you would have to improve the roster. Don't just get Siakam, KAT or whoever and set them up to fail with Damian because it's not fair to either player to put them in that situation. Go after Buddy Hield, see if Myles Turner or Clint Capela are going to be available, or if the Wolves are desperate enough to sign and trade Naz Reid to recoup some assets after the costly Gobert trade - if not, try signing him with the full MLE. And you don't stop there! However they plan to shake up the roster in this hypothetical scenario, they need to significantly improve the center position/rotation and their bench to give Dame an actual chance of winning a ring with what few years left they have in his prime. Also fire Chauncey Billups, he's a bottom 3 coach and the only reason I can't say he is not the worst is because I can't say the Raptors coach will be objectively worse/better without knowing who will head either team. He isn't 3rd, that's for sure. But anyway that's the Blazers prerogative. What exactly could the Raptors see in a potential pick that, presumably, revolves around Pascal Siakam? Since I can be a bit of a wordy writer, i'm going to add some TL;DR sections for each playepick discussed in this little piece for those that want a quick breakdown. Note: This is not a trade proposal; this is a compilation of the assets and players who could be included in a trade for Pascal Siakam. Additionally, this is not an endorsement of trading Pascal Siakam, etc. in a deal with the Portland Trailblazers. Anfernee Simons https://preview.redd.it/eon5unll7d3b1.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=2873b3d89092d0e0c221ee9817335918489f2e7e The main player who's been the subject of a contentious discussion between Blazers fans and Raptors fans. Whether you think he's overrated, underrated or somewhere inbetween, it is undeniable that Anfernee Simons would have to be included in the trade at minimum. I can't speak for the Blazers and I won't pretend to speak for all Raptors fans so let me just say this: I like Anfernee Simons. He's one of the more exciting players in the league under 25 even if he doesn't have the same ceiling as a guy like Zion or fellow player nicknamed "Ant" Anthony Edwards. A borderline All-Star guard with a combination of shooting prowess and explosiveness, he had a breakout season in 2021/22 when Dame went down due to an injury and thus became the Blazers lead point guard in his absence. He's a genuine 3-level scorer who can splash from outside, pressure the rim for a high-flying dunk and he's effective in the midrange too. If nothing else, it cannot be overstated how nice it would be for this team to have another player who's a reliable, 38.7% from 3 volume shooter on a roster so thoroughly lacking in outside shooting And before you say it, yes, Anfernee Simons is a point guard. This isn't a case like CJ where his skillset is that of a 2 who can do some playmaking but shouldn't run your offense, Simons does have some issues with dribbling the air out of the ball before making a pass, but he is a point guard. He isn't a typical point, operating more as a shoot-first point like Lillard, but he's still capable of cracking out a notable number of assists while getting buckets; he dished out 6 dimes a game with nearly 28 points in the games he's played without Dame as the lead point. All 11 of them last year. https://preview.redd.it/nwhosg3d8d3b1.png?width=1945&format=png&auto=webp&s=8d01cd6a71d032cf5e3bab941c00fc942148991c Yeah, you might have seen some posts or stats online of what Simons has done without Damian Lillard; in his breakout season of 2021/22, the Anferno was putting up a similar number of assists and cracked 20 points per game, albeit over a more significant sample size of 30 games. And in 2022/23, Anfernee Simons put up 27.9/2.9/5.7 (2.4 turnovers so an AST/TO of 2.38:1 which is solid) while shooting a staggering 41% from 3 on 11 3s. Those numbers are impressive in a vacuum; his true shooting of 62% is especially notable. However, they require some context and should be taken with an enormous grain of salt. For one, it's a very small sample size over a lengthy period of the season where teams haven't had to plan for Simons to be the main guard to focus their defense on. He's still the 2nd option so it's not like there's no film watching or the like, but if Anfernee Simons permanently becomes the lead point guard of a team, opposing teams will gameplan around him and his weaknesses more significantly than the very few times where he's asked to be the lead ballhandler in Dame's absence. His 2021/22 stats, while still a limited overall sample size, do suggest he'll be able to dish out a similar number of dimes as the lead guard (Dame had been ruled out due to injury during the season so teams did have to gameplan around the Ant for a large portion of the season instead of a handful of games scattered throughout the season) and he still has room to grow as a playmaker but once again, it was only a sample size of 30 games so it is hard to draw much out from the games he played. Speaking of drawing conclusions from said sample size: Yes the Blazers went 4-7 within that 11 game sample size - and bear in mind this sample included games where the Blazers were still trying to contend while facing a variety of teams i.e. not every team was a playoff or contender. That isn't great, however, Ant was generally not the main reason they lost since the 2022/23 Blazers as a whole were pretty terrible all year, even before they blatantly tanked. The same is also true of his breakout year when the Blazers lost Lillard due to injury, they just weren't a good team. If there is a point of contention around Simons that one can draw from his past 2 seasons, it's his defense which...it's bad. It's really bad. He's improved this season on that end to the point where i'd say he's a better defender than Dame - even if his overall defensive rating doesn't support this, the eye test does - but that's like saying Spencer Dinwiddie is a better defender than Trae Young. While Chauncey Billups hasn't been doing either one of Portland's guard any favors, it doesn't change the fact that being better than one of the worst defenders in the league is not an accomplishment to be proud of. All coaching issues aside, Simons is still a notable negative on that end of the floor. He has a propensity for losing his man via ball watching, he's not great at closing out on the perimeter and he's not a lane disruptor by any means. It's not impossible for him to improve as a defender - he's 6'3 with a 6'9 wingspan and much of his defensive weaknesses come from a lack of discipline - but as of right now when his shots aren't falling he's a major liability on the court and his flaws on defense were not well hidden when paired next to another notably poor defender in Dame. There are a couple of other habits that Simons needs to address - he could stand to be less trigger happy as a scorer and work more on his playmaking given all the promise he's shown in that area - but that's the main issue with Simons. He's a very skilled guard with a similar approach to the game as Dame on both ends of the floor. And we all know Dame isn't locking down the opposing team's point. Does Anfernee Simons seem like he'll become a guard on the level of Dame? No but that's a ridiculously high bar to hold him to, especially with the limited opportunities he had and will continue to have when he's behind Dame in the guard pecking order. Anfernee is a good player who often shows glimmers of true greatness on offense but whose defense (or lack thereof) is going to require very careful teambuilding to limit exploiting said defense in the playoffs. Perhaps he'll need to be the full-time point to fully achieve his potential as a playmaker but while he doesn't scream All-NBA caliber, he's someone you can easily see eking out a couple of All-Star nods at his peak and is, at worst, a staring-caliber guard. As for whether he can be the lead of a championship contender...we'll get to that when we talk about the pick he'd come with. TL;DR - Anfernee Simons is an intriguing young player with upside as an explosive, shoot-first PG but one whose poor defense does mean the team's starting lineup/bench has to be built around carefully to account for his current (and likely ongoing throughout his career) weaknesses. 3rd Pick https://preview.redd.it/96pocramhi3b1.png?width=1000&format=png&auto=webp&s=3ee450641a298a5b1dee0da9fce0c7f652c60665 It's whomever is left from Scoot Henderson or Brandon Miller. Maybe you trade down to 4 for some more assets if you're a believer in Amen Thompson, maybe you take Amen if you think he's the best player available and the Rockets won't negotiate for Scoot/Miller but yeah, it's one of those three via the 3rd overall pick. Before we get into the players, I do want to briefly mention that I actually did a post a while ago on a different sub going over trades involving the 3rd pick and to put it bluntly: The 3rd pick has good value but it doesn't have as much value on its own and trades involving the 3rd pick for an All-Star or even All-NBA caliber player are very rare. The closest trade to what the Blazers would want in return was in 2000 where the Atlanta Hawks traded the 3rd overall pick to the Vancouver Grizzlies along with Brevin Knight and Lorenzen Wright for Shareef Abdur-Rahim and the 27th overall pick. That 3rd pick turned out to be future HoFer Pau Gasol but no one knew he'd become that at the time. As for what the Grizzlies gave up for the pick, Shareef Abdur-Rahim was not a perennial All-Star nor was he an All-NBA level player. He was a solid player that became an All-Star in his debut season for the Hawks...and that was his only All-Star appearance. With that in mind, it is a bit wild that it's so commonly suggested that Simons and the 3rd pick alone should be enough to acquire an All-NBA talent like Siakam, especially with how much inflation we've seen in trades for players of that caliber of late or even players who are a step below. Concerns about his contract expiring lowering his value are baffling, as if a team's front office wouldn't talk to him about an extension before making such a trade. Moreover, it's not like the Raptors need to deal him out when they can simply re-sign him in 2024. Now this year, when Scoot Henderson or Brandon Miller could be up for grabs, the 3rd pick has a lot more value given how highly praised those players are, so let's put aside the debate on what is fair for Siakam for a moment and talk about the presumed 3rd overall pick, Scoot Henderson. The 2nd best player in a draft class containing the best prospect since LeBron James. He's projected to go 3rd because Charlotte is allegedly interested in taking Brandon Miller at 2nd but we'll touch on that later. For now, let's talk Scoot:
Losing Siakam would obviously hurt the team in the short term but as far as what Scoot brings, there is a lot of upside to him that would raise the ceiling of the team in the long run. His ability to get to the rim, combined with his athleticism would make him the perfect guard for a team that thrives in transition like the Raptors. He would also have chemistry with another player the Raptors have been rumored to be interested in/may take at 13 in Leonard Miller as they played on the same team but we'll talk about the 13th pick's potential prospects another time. For now, let's go over one of the problems with trading for Scoot Henderson if he is still on the board, besides the obvious hypothetical of "he might never become a player as good as the one you're giving up" or "what do you do with Fred when you brought in Scoot and Simons" because what you're really asking is this: Is a backcourt of Scoot/Simons the team's guard duo of the future? This brings me to my big problem with a “trade for Simons + 3” trade if the 3rd pick does end up being Scoot: A backcourt of two undersized guards, one of whom is unproven against NBA competition on defense and the other of whom has been one of the worst guard defenders in the league is not a duo of guards you can build a contender around in the long-term unless both of them become significantly improved defenders. Or at the very least, it's a duo that has historically not led to notable championship contention. Blazers fans would know this well given their team has only had one year where they weren’t the in the NBA’s basement as far as defensive ratings go, be it with CJ or Anfernee as Lillard’s sidekick; the furthest they ever got with either was the Western Conference Finals and the best their defense has even been was 10th. Every other season, the Trailblazers defense has been amongst the worst in the NBA. Part of those Blazers teams' failures can be attributed to bad coaching, but a more significant portion of the blame be laid at the feet of Dame being a bad defender and undersized who has been paired with bad, undersized guards throughout much of his career. You can get away with one bad defender or a starter who’s undersized for their position on a championship-caliber team which, if you’re rebuilding by trading away Siakam, that is what you’re hoping to take a step back for. As an example, Dirk Nowitzki wasn’t known for being a lockdown defender and yet the Mavericks won their first and only championship to date with Dirk as the weak link on defense. He was also a phenomenal offensive talent whose weaknesses on defense were mitigated by how much momentum he was able to generate for his team but I digress. You can get away with running several smaller players for a limited time to force mismatches on offense with the right lineup. The Warriors dynasty comes to mind, where Golden State would close games using their “Death Lineup”. However, that lineup revolved around 4 Hall of Famers (Klay, Dray, Steph, Igoudala) where Steph is the lineup’s weakest link on defense, and this is before we acknowledge that they were able to include yet another HoFer in Kevin Durant to replace Harrison Barnes in a different incarnation of the Death Lineup from 2017 onward. For that matter, it's not wholly impossible to win a championship with a duo of small guards - the Pistons repeated in the 89/90-90/91 with 6'3 Joe Dumars and 6'1 Isiah Thomas and the Bad Boy Pistons were contenders throughout the 90s - but it is damn near impossible if your lead guards are bad defenders. Whatever can be said about Thomas' various off-court controversies, notably with him being found liable for sexual misconduct during his stint heading a woman's basketball team a la the New York Liberty, he was a phenomenal defender, as was Dumars. Hell, the Raptors won in 2019 while having Fred VanVleet and Kyle Lowry share the floor a fair amount of time in the Finals though it is once again worth noting that both were terrific defenders at the time. Even if one wouldn't call their efforts All-Defense caliber, they were both positives on that end of the floor. Historically speaking, you cannot be a championship-caliber team with two of your starters being undersized negatives on the defensive end barring them being surrounded by generational defenders or said starters being generational offensive players who can make up for how many points you’re giving up on the other end of the floor. Simons is a gifted scorer with good playmaking but is a truly sorry defender. Scoot Henderson is a talented passer but is undersized for the position and how he fares defensively with teams hunting him as the smallest player on the court will remain to be seen. But with neither of them likely to be a Dumars/Thomas-level defender and the offensive capabilities for one of them being the main question mark as to how good a player they could become, having both of them as the foundation to your team's backcourt seems to cement the duo's future as a non-contending entity. Let's put this into perspective with some statistics: Of the past 40 years, the only championship to ever be won by a team with what could be considered a bad regular season defensive rating was the 2000/01 Lakers. That team had two generational talents in Shaq and Kobe, and that season is itself an outlier when compared to the rest of the Shaq/Kobe Lakers era that it shouldn't even count. All other championship teams were at least 12th or higher for their season with most championship teams being in the Top 5 in defensive rating. By the by, in case you're wondering: That team who had 12th in defensive rating was the 1995 Rockets led by the generational talent in Hakeem Olajuwon and said rating had a lot to do with untimely injuries to the 95 Rockets core. That team they still managed to have the 7th best offensive rating in the league despite Drexler's absence for much of the season is a testament to Future Raptors Retiree Hakeem's skills as the best big man of the late 80s, early-to-mid 90s. Are we noticing a pattern here? Even if we ignore the question about what to do with Fred, the question of what the Raptors backcourt looks like is far more pertinent if it is going to involve some combination of Scoot Henderson and Anfernee Simons with, presumably, Gary Trent Jr. and another guard coming off the bench for relief. Is a backcourt of Anfernee Simons and Scoot going to turn this team into a Top 3-6 offense for the season without plummeting this team's defense off of a cliff? And if you don't think so, when do you move one of them to open up the 1 or the 2 for another player? This is a question the team will likely have to answer once they've seen how Simons and Scoot fit togethefit with the rest of the roster; I don't see a 3-team draft day deal where Simons or the 3rd pick are moved elsewhere barring that aforementioned moving down to 4th and I don't see this team without Siakam/with Scoot and Simons being a serious contender for several years even if they do pan out. But it is a question that has me concerned in regards to how this team will function when it's developing a dynamic duo of players who will be picked apart in the playoffs barring one of them turning into a terrific defender. Whatever else one can say about Point Scottie or even Scottie Barnes when he was crammed into the starting Shooting Guard position for much of the year, it is hard to argue that having either Scottie or Trent & Simons/Scoot as your backcourt makes way more sense defensively even if having both Scottie and Scoot complicates matters on the offensive end since neither are great shooters and Trent's defense is a touch overrated at time due to is propensity to gamble for steals. All this being said, it's not out of the realm of possibility that Henderson becomes an All-Defense-caliber player or for Simons to a climb out from the deep hole he's dug for himself as one of the worst defenders in the league, and Scoot is still a phenomenal talent. These concerns should be noted, but they shouldn't serve to deter from selecting him 3rd if such a trade were to go down. As a prospect, there's very few players in this draft class who could serve to singlehandedly raise the floor and the ceiling of this team in the long run. Speaking of other players, however, it should be acknowledged that Scoot isn't the only potentially available player at 3; while all accounts suggest the Hornets prefer Brandon Miller at 3, Scoot is the best player available at 2 and there's no guarantee the Hornets draft for fit. So here's a quick rundown of Miller and a player the Blazers have recently worked out, Amen Thompson:
TL;DR - Scoot is an amazing prospect but his pairing with Simons could be a major problem in the future if both don't improve defensively. Ironically, the 3rd pick becomes simultaneously more valuable for other teams/less valuable for the Raptors if it's Scoot and vice-versa if it's Miller due to those concerns. Thompson is a wildcard at 3 depending on who has the pick/how willing the Rockets are to trade up to 3rd. Nassir Little Portland is reluctant to deal out Sharpe. We can debate on whether or not it's fair value for an All-NBA caliber player like Siakam, how much his contract being expiring should affect a deal (we'll ignore the fact that he can be extended by Portland and that any front office making a trade like this should be doing their due diligence by speaking to Pascal Siakam beforehand) or how good Sharpe actually was as a rookie overall instead of solely focusing on that stretch where the Blazers let him do whatever because they were tanking but regardless, the Blazers seem intent on keeping him. Fair enough, Masai is likely aiming for more than Anfernee and 3 - especially for the reasons listed above if it is Scoot Henderson - but Sharpe is likely a hard sell for the front office even if they are going all-in i.e. they want to keep at least one young guy on the roster for the long-term. That being said, there's still the matter of salary matching, and that's where one of Nassir Little or Sharpe has to come in (They're not going to move Nurkic in the deal for Siakam unless they have something lined up for their center situation i.e. tampering for Naz Reid); the only way for the Blazers to neatly absorb Siakam into their cap with just Simons is by renouncing their rights to Jerami Grant and they need to re-sign him/move him to the 3 (Grant is a really bad rebounder for a PF; the man is a career 4 RPG) if they are serious about competing with Dame. So...yeah, Nassir Little. Little is what people think O.G. is: A good defender who is often injured, Little is a solid 3 & D wing who, unlike Anunoby, has never played more than 55 games for a given season. Granted, 2019/20 and 2020/21 were shorted to 72 seasons but regardless, injuries have hampered the 23 year-old in the same way that Otto Porter Jr.'s potential was sapped due to a career-long battle with injuries. Still, when considering his age and production, his newest contract ($28M/4 years) is amazing value when he's healthy. But much like Otto (who I think technically could be sent in such a deal due to the rules around incoming/outgoing salaries), the question of when he's available is a common one. Little is a good young player but one whom you shouldn't get your hopes up about changing the team's direction. TL;DR - A little salary (sorry) is needed for the deal to happen on draft night & Nassir would be a decent choice for forward depth off the bench. One will have to carefully factor in injury concerns when evaluating the team's depth. Keon Johnson So like I said, Sharpe is likely to be ruled out. I debated if I should cover him at all but i'm honestly not sold on Shaedon as a prospect and we've already met the quota for rants with the "Simons/Scoot frontcourt will be exploited" talks. That said, I don't think the Raptors would settle for just Simons and the 3rd pick or the 3rd pick plus assets from a 3rd team were Anfernee moved due to the aforementioned backcourt issues with Simons and Scoot. For now we have Keon Johnson. Fun fact: When the Raptors were expected to draft 7th in the 2021 draft, Johnson was a common player mocked for the 7th pick. He wound up going in the 20 to the Clippers (via the Knicks in a trade) who eventually fleeced the Blazers in a deal including him for Norman Powell. Keon Johnson...hasn't really done a whole lot thus far. He was noted for having an impressive vertical of 48" at the 2021 combine which broke a previous record, he's a terrific athlete and he's about the same age as Scottie so he lines up with a rebuild or retool around Barnes... ...and that's where the positives end. Like I said, Keon hasn't demonstrated all that much on either team he's been on. For a guard, he's not a great ball handler, he isn't a good shooter, he's got decent size and the speed to be a good defender from 1-3 but his potential on that end does not All-Defense caliber. He'd be a throw-in that you'd hope can develop over time, likely spending a lot of time in the G-League because as of right now, he isn't going to be a significant contributor on either end. TL;DR - Keon is on a rookie deal so you'd be taking a flier on him/betting on your development bringing out the best in him if he were included. Other pick(s): As far as immediate draft capital goes, the Blazers have the 23rd pick in this draft, which is around the range where players the Raptors have been rumored to be interested in/interviewed (Bilal Couliby, GG Jackson) would likely be available. There's been some speculation that the Blazers could send this pick to the Bulls so they can get their owed pick back from Chicago but nothing concrete has come out regarding whether the Bulls would settle for that vs. hoping the Blazers make the 1st round and lose so they can get a pick in the 16-20 range. That said, the future pick owed to the Bulls is where things get tricky if the Raptors did want a future 1st: The Blazers pick is protected until 2028. It is technically possible for them to offer a swap in 2029 but without the protections being removed on the Bulls-bound 2024 1st (The 2029 pick cannot be moved due to the Stepien Rule), any future draft capital would need to come in the form of the 2023 trade deadline's currency of choice: Second round picks. Some of the notable 2nds include:
TL;DR - There is some interesting draft capital here beyond their own 1sts, especially if the 23rd pick is available in a deep draft like this, but ideally one would want a future 1st from the Blazers rather than a handful of 2nds given Dame's limited window. Conclusion I was originally going to talk about the 4th overall pick too but this got a bit lengthy so I made that into a separate post. As far as the 3rd pick package, in some ways it's better than one surrounding the 4th pick because Simons is a flatout better player than any one the Rockets would send back but it's also worse when you factor in Simons or Scoot's respective ceilings vs some of the potential prospects that could come in a 4th pick package? You're getting significant depth at the guard position if it is Scoot/Simons but there's a huge question mark as to how good the defense will hold up with two undersized guards, one of whom is a bad defender, will hold up in the playoffs. |
2023.06.02 23:41 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023
Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarketChat! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead StockMarketChat. :)
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Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.
Dow leaps 700 points on hot jobs report, Nasdaq notches sixth straight winning week: Live updates - (Source)
The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged Friday as traders cheered a strong jobs report and the passage of a debt ceiling bill that averts a U.S. default.
The 30-stock Dow jumped 701.19 points, or 2.12%, to end at 33,762.76 — its best day since January. The S&P 500 climbed 1.45% to close at 4,282.37. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.07% to 13,240.77, reaching its highest level since April 2022 during the session.
With Friday’s gains, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished the holiday-shortened trading week about 1.8% and 2% higher, respectively. The Dow’s Friday advance pushed it into positive territory for the week, finishing up around 2%. The Nasdaq notched its sixth straight week higher, a streak length not seen for the technology-heavy index since 2020.
Nonfarm payrolls grew much more than expected in May, rising 339,000. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a relatively modest 190,000 increase. It marked the 29th straight month of positive job growth.
Recently strong employment data had been pressuring stocks on the notion it would keep the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. But Friday data also showed average hourly earnings rose less than economists expected year over year, while the unemployment rate was higher than anticipated.
Both data points have given investors hope that the Fed could pause its interest rate hike campaign at the policy meeting later this month, according to Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management.
“The so-called Goldilocks has entered the house,” Sandven said. “Clearly, on the bullish side, there are signs that inflation is starting to wane, speculation that the Fed is going to move into pause mode, increasing the likelihood of a soft landing.”
Easing concerns around the U.S. debt ceiling also helped sentiment. The Senate passed a bill to raise the debt ceiling late Thursday night, sending the bill to President Joe Biden’s desk. That comes after the House passed the Fiscal Responsibility Act on Wednesday, just days before the June 5 deadline set by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
Lululemon shares popped more than 11% on strong results and a guidance boost, while MongoDB surged 28% on a blowout forecast.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
S&P Sectors for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Indices for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
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S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
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Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
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Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
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Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
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Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
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Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
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A Resilient Labor Market = A Resilient Economy
Another month, another employment surprise. Should we be surprised anymore?
Economists expected payrolls to grow by about 187,000 in May. That’s still a solid job growth number, but a stepdown from what we’ve seen this year through April. However, actual payroll growth beat expectations for the 14th straight month.
The economy created 339,000 jobs in May, close to double expectations. Better still, payroll growth in March and April were revised higher by a total of 93,000!
- March payrolls were revised up by 52,000, from 165,000 to 217,000
- April payroll were revised up by 41,000, from 253,000 to 294,000
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
We’ve got two months of payroll data since the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March, and nothing suggests weakness arising from that banking crisis.
Over the first five months of the year, the economy’s added 1.5 million jobs. That in a nutshell tells you how the economy is doing. For perspective, the average annual payroll growth between 1940 and 2022 was 1.5 million. During the last expansion, 2010-2019, average annual payroll growth was 2.2 million per year.
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But what about the unemployment rate?
The unemployment rate did rise from a 50-year low of 3.4% to 3.7%. This does raise some cause for concern but digging through the data suggests it may be noise more than anything else.
It probably helps to understand that the job growth and unemployment rate data come from different sources. The former comes from asking about 120,000+ businesses how many people they hired. The latter comes from asking about 60,000 households about their employment status. No surprise, the latter is noisier.
A big reason for the weak household survey (and rising unemployment rate) is that more than 400,000 people who were self-employed said they were no longer employed. As you can see in the following chart this is very noisy data, but the recent trend seems to be toward lower self-employment. It’s basically reversing the surge we saw in 2021, when self-employment surged. So, what we’re seeing now may simply be normalization of the labor market as more workers move from self-employment to W2 jobs with an employer.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Also, the unemployment rate can be impacted by people leaving the labor force (technically defined as those “not looking for work”) and an aging population. I’ve discussed in prior blogs how we can get around this by looking at the employment-population ratio for prime age workers, i.e. workers aged 25-54 years. This measures the number of people working as a percent of the civilian population. Think of it as the opposite of the unemployment rate, and because we use prime age, you also get around the demographic issue.
The good news is that the prime-age employment-population ratio dropped only a tick, from 80.8% to 80.7%. This still leaves it higher than at any point between 2002 and 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the labor market remains strong and resilient, despite all the recession calls. Perhaps its not as strong as the headline payroll growth number of 339,000 suggests, but any number above 150,000 would be good at this point. And we’re certainly well above that.
In fact, looking at the job growth and employment-population data, this labor market is probably the strongest we’ve seen since the late 1990’s. Our view since the end of last year has been that the economy can avoid a recession this year, and nothing we’ve seen to date suggests we need to reverse that view. Far from it.
June Better in Pre-Election Years
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Since 1971 June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks as a rule ranking eighth best with an 0.8% average gain, up 29 of 52 years. This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best 8 Months” which ends in June. Small caps also fare well in June. Russell 2000 has averaged 0.6% in June since 1979 advancing 63.6% of the time.
June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.2%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking ninth, but essentially flat (0.02% average gain).
Despite being much stronger S&P 500 pre-election year June ranks fifth best. For the rest it is just sixth best. Average monthly gains in pre-election year June range from DJIA 1.1% to a respectable 2.4% for NASDAQ. Russell 2000 has been the most consistently bullish in pre-election years, up 8 of the last 11 (72.7% of the time).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The June Swoon?
Stocks did it again, as the S&P 500 gained 0.2% in the month of May, making it now 10 of the past 11 years that stocks finished green in May. Of course, it gained only 0.01% last year and only 0.25% this year, so the recent returns weren’t off the charts by any measure.
Looking specifically at this year, tech added more than 9% in May, thanks to excitement over AI and Nvidia, with communication services and consumer discretionary also in the green, while the other eight sectors were lower.
Specifically, turning to the month of June, stocks historically have hit a bit of trouble here. Since 1950, up 0.03% on average, the fourth worst month of the year. Over the past 20 years, only January and September have been worse and in the past decade, it is again the fourth worst month. The one bit of good news is during a pre-election year is it up 1.5%, the fifth-best month of the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s another chart we’ve shared before, but years that gained big in January (like 2023) tend to see some periods of consolidation in late May/early June, but eventually experience a surge higher into July. Given the flattish overall May, this could be playing out again.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
What if stocks were having a good year heading into June? Since 1950, if the S&P 500 was up more than 8% for the year going into June (like this year), the month of June was up an impressive 1.2% on average versus the average June return of 0.03%, while in a pre-election year the returns jumped to 1.8%. The percent of the time where returns were higher gets better as well, from 54.8% in your average June to nearly 74% if up 8% or more for the year heading into June, to 80% of the time higher if up 8% for the year in a pre-election year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Overall, it has been a very nice run for stocks this year and we remain overweight stocks in the Carson Investment Research House Views. June could potentially cause some volatility, but when all is said and done, we wouldn’t bet against more strength and higher prices in June.
NASDAQ and Russell 2000 Lead June Pre-Election Strength
Over the last 21 years, June has been a rather lackluster month. DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 have all recorded average losses in the month. Russell 2000 has fared better with a modest average gain. Historically the month has opened respectably, advancing on the first and second trading days.
From there the market then drifted sideways and lower into negative territory just ahead of mid-month. Here the market rallied to create a nice mid-month bulge that quickly evaporated and returned to losses. The brisk, post, mid-month drop is typically followed by a month end rally led by technology and small caps.
Historical performance in pre-election years has been much stronger with all five indexes finishing with average gains. June’s overall pattern in pre-election is similar to the last 21-years pattern with a brief, shallow pullback after a solid start.
In pre-election years the mid-month rally has been much more robust beginning around the sixth trading day and lasting until the fifteenth. Followed by another modest retreat and rally into the end of Q2.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
May and YTD 2023 Asset Class Performance
May 2023 is now behind us, and below is a look at how various asset classes performed during the month using US-listed exchange-traded products as proxies. We also include YTD and YoY total returns.
May was a month of divergence where Tech/AI soared, and the rest of the market fell. Notably, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) gained 7.88% in May while the Dow Jones Dividend ETF (DVY) fell 7.7%. That's a 15 percentage-point spread!
At the sector level, it was a similar story. While the Tech sector (XLK) rose 8.9%, sectors like Energy (XLE), Consumer Staples (XLP), Materials (XLB), and Utilities (XLU) fell more than 5%. In total, 8 of 11 sectors were in the red for the month.
Outside the US, we saw pullbacks in most areas of the world other than Brazil, India, and Japan. China, Hong Kong, France, Canada, Italy, Spain, and the UK all fell more than 5%.
All of the commodity-related ETFs/ETNs were in the red for May, with oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) falling the most at more than 10% each.
Finally, fixed-income ETFs also fell in May as interest rates bounced back. The aggregate bond market ETF (AGG) was down 1.14% in May, leaving it up just 2.6% YTD and down 2.2% year-over-year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
How Worried Should We Be About Consumer Debt?
A very common question we get these days is whether we’re concerned about the massive increase in consumer debt.
Short answer: No. Well, not yet anyway. But let’s walk through it in 6 charts.
The New York Federal Reserve (NY Fed) releases a quarterly report on household debt and credit, and the latest one that was released last week came with the headline:
“Household Debt Hits $17.05 Trillion in First Quarter.” But let’s look at the details. Household debt increased by $148 billion in Q1. That translates to a 0.9% increase, which is the slowest quarterly increase in two years. Most of the increase in debt was from mortgage originations ($121 billion) – mortgage debt makes up $12 trillion of the total $17 trillion in debt. The rest was auto loan and student loan balances.
Here’s something interesting: credit card balances were flat in Q1, at $986 billion. The fact that overall balances are higher than where they were in 2019 ($927 billion) should not be surprising given we just experienced a lot of inflation. Prices rose at the fastest pace in 40 years, and so you should expect card balances to increase. However, incomes rose as well.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
When you think debt, the key question is whether households are able to service that debt. A good measure of that is to look at debt service costs as a percent of disposable income. As of Q4 2022, that’s at 9.7%, slightly lower than what it was before the pandemic and well below the historical average.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
There’s even better news: disposable income grew 2.9% in the first quarter of 2023. Significantly higher than the 0.9% increase in total household debt, let alone interest costs!
Part of that includes the large boost to social security income due to inflation adjustments in January. Also, tax brackets were adjusted higher, resulting in more money in household wallets.
But even if you exclude these one-off increases, disposable income growth has been strong between February and April, rising at a 5% annualized pace. In fact, employee compensation by itself has risen at a 3.9% annualized pace over the past three months. Meanwhile, inflation is running just about 3% – which means households are seeing real income gains (adjusted for inflation).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
This is why consumers don’t feel the need to borrow to the extent they did before the pandemic. Credit utilization rates measure credit card balances as a percent of available credit. As you can see in the following chart, utilization rates for both credit cards and home equity lines of credit are well below pre-pandemic averages.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lack of stress showing in delinquency data as well
Another way to look for signs of consumer stress is to look at the debt delinquency data. As of the first quarter, the NY Fed survey showed that the percent of loan balances that were more than 90 days delinquent was stable around 1.5%. That’s down from 1.9% a year ago, and quite a bit below the 3% average in 2019.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Even third-party collections are at record lows, with just over 5% of consumers having collections against them as of the first quarter. This is down from 6% a year ago and below the 2019 average of 9.2%. The average collection amount per person is $1,316, which is lower than the $1,452 average in late 2019. This is surprising because just with inflation you’d have thought the amount would be higher.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the data on consumer finances is not showing much cause for concern. So, count us in the “not worried” camp. At least, not yet.
Some Good Inflation News
While the market prices in a much higher likelihood of a rate hike at the June meeting, there was actually some decent news on the inflation front today. Starting with the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence report, in this month's update, the inflation expectations component fell to 6.1% from a peak of 7.9% fifteen months ago in March 2022 (first time reading touched 7.9%). Looking at the chart below, this reading was also at 6.1% fifteen months before that first peak. In other words, for all the talk about how inflation has been stickier, the pace of decline in this indicator on the way down has been the same as the pace of increase on the way up.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Another notable report was today's release of the Dallas Fed Manufacturing report. The Prices Paid component of that report showed a decline from 19.5 down to 13.8 which was the lowest reading since July 2020. For the month of May, two of the five components (Empire and Philadelphia) showed modest m/m increases from multi-month lows, and three showed significant declines to multi-month lows. The chart below shows a composite of the Prices Paid component using the z-scores for each of the five individual components going back to 2010. The peak for this component was 19 months ago in November 2021. Unlike the inflation expectations of the Conference Board survey, this reading hasn't declined quite as fast as it increased in the 19 months leading up to the peak, but at -0.2, it is still below its historical average dating back to 2010 and back down to levels it was at right before the COVID shock hit the economy in early 2020.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Home Prices Bounce in Hardest Hit Areas
March data on home prices across the country were released today with updated S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller numbers. Case Shiller home prices had been falling rapidly in many of the twenty cities tracked, but in March we actually saw a pretty big month-over-month bounce in some of the hardest-hit areas like San Diego, San Francisco, LA, Denver, and Phoenix. Some cities still saw declines, however. Las Vegas saw a m/m drop of 0.93%, while Miami fell 0.41%, and Seattle fell 0.28%.
On a year-over-year basis, Miami is still up the most with a gain of 10.86%. As shown in the table below, Miami home prices are up 59.87% from pre-COVID levels in February 2020, and they're only down 2.9% from post-COVID highs. Only Tampa is up more than Miami from pre-COVID levels (+61.04%), but Tampa prices are down more from their post-COVID highs (-4.70%) than Miami (-2.90%).
Four cities are down more than 10% from their post-COVID highs: San Diego (-10.12%), Las Vegas (-10.95%), San Francisco (-16.35%), and Seattle (-16.50%). New York is down the least from post-COVID highs of any city tracked at just -2.9%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Below we include charts of home price levels across all 20 cities tracked by Case Shiller along with the three composite indices. We've included a vertical red line on each chart to highlight pre-COVID levels. When looking through the charts, you can see this month's small bounce back in most cities after a 6-9 month pullback in prices from peaks seen early last year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
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(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
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STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 5th, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/2/23
([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)($NIO $GTLB $GME $CIEN $DOCU $SAIC $ASO $SJM $CXM $THO $OLLI $MOMO $CBRL $FERG $TTC $HQY $CPB $PLAY $QMCO $FCEL $LOVE $ABM $CNM $HTOO $TCOM $JOAN $UNFI $SFIX $CHS $GIII $SIG $SMAR $PL $ZFOX $HYZN $VRA $CASY $MTN $SMTC $ALYA $DBI $SCWX $JILL $OESX $BSE $REVG $VBNK $VRNT $RENT $HCP)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(N/A.)
Monday 6.5.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Monday 6.5.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 6.6.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 6.6.23 After Market Close:
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Wednesday 6.7.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.7.23 After Market Close:
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Thursday 6.8.23 Before Market Open:
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Thursday 6.8.23 After Market Close:
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Friday 6.9.23 Before Market Open:
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Friday 6.9.23 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
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DISCUSS!
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2023.06.02 23:40 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023
Good Friday evening to all of you here on WallStreetStockMarket! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.
Here is the list of notable tickers reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
Here is the full list of companies report earnings for this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great new trading week ahead WallStreetStockMarket. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to WallStreetStockMarket [link] [comments]
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 5th, 2023.
Dow leaps 700 points on hot jobs report, Nasdaq notches sixth straight winning week: Live updates - (Source)
The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged Friday as traders cheered a strong jobs report and the passage of a debt ceiling bill that averts a U.S. default.
The 30-stock Dow jumped 701.19 points, or 2.12%, to end at 33,762.76 — its best day since January. The S&P 500 climbed 1.45% to close at 4,282.37. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.07% to 13,240.77, reaching its highest level since April 2022 during the session.
With Friday’s gains, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished the holiday-shortened trading week about 1.8% and 2% higher, respectively. The Dow’s Friday advance pushed it into positive territory for the week, finishing up around 2%. The Nasdaq notched its sixth straight week higher, a streak length not seen for the technology-heavy index since 2020.
Nonfarm payrolls grew much more than expected in May, rising 339,000. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected a relatively modest 190,000 increase. It marked the 29th straight month of positive job growth.
Recently strong employment data had been pressuring stocks on the notion it would keep the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. But Friday data also showed average hourly earnings rose less than economists expected year over year, while the unemployment rate was higher than anticipated.
Both data points have given investors hope that the Fed could pause its interest rate hike campaign at the policy meeting later this month, according to Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management.
“The so-called Goldilocks has entered the house,” Sandven said. “Clearly, on the bullish side, there are signs that inflation is starting to wane, speculation that the Fed is going to move into pause mode, increasing the likelihood of a soft landing.”
Easing concerns around the U.S. debt ceiling also helped sentiment. The Senate passed a bill to raise the debt ceiling late Thursday night, sending the bill to President Joe Biden’s desk. That comes after the House passed the Fiscal Responsibility Act on Wednesday, just days before the June 5 deadline set by U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
Lululemon shares popped more than 11% on strong results and a guidance boost, while MongoDB surged 28% on a blowout forecast.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
S&P Sectors for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Indices for this past week:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
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S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
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Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
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Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
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Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
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Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
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Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
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A Resilient Labor Market = A Resilient Economy
Another month, another employment surprise. Should we be surprised anymore?
Economists expected payrolls to grow by about 187,000 in May. That’s still a solid job growth number, but a stepdown from what we’ve seen this year through April. However, actual payroll growth beat expectations for the 14th straight month.
The economy created 339,000 jobs in May, close to double expectations. Better still, payroll growth in March and April were revised higher by a total of 93,000!
- March payrolls were revised up by 52,000, from 165,000 to 217,000
- April payroll were revised up by 41,000, from 253,000 to 294,000
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
We’ve got two months of payroll data since the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March, and nothing suggests weakness arising from that banking crisis.
Over the first five months of the year, the economy’s added 1.5 million jobs. That in a nutshell tells you how the economy is doing. For perspective, the average annual payroll growth between 1940 and 2022 was 1.5 million. During the last expansion, 2010-2019, average annual payroll growth was 2.2 million per year.
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But what about the unemployment rate?
The unemployment rate did rise from a 50-year low of 3.4% to 3.7%. This does raise some cause for concern but digging through the data suggests it may be noise more than anything else.
It probably helps to understand that the job growth and unemployment rate data come from different sources. The former comes from asking about 120,000+ businesses how many people they hired. The latter comes from asking about 60,000 households about their employment status. No surprise, the latter is noisier.
A big reason for the weak household survey (and rising unemployment rate) is that more than 400,000 people who were self-employed said they were no longer employed. As you can see in the following chart this is very noisy data, but the recent trend seems to be toward lower self-employment. It’s basically reversing the surge we saw in 2021, when self-employment surged. So, what we’re seeing now may simply be normalization of the labor market as more workers move from self-employment to W2 jobs with an employer.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Also, the unemployment rate can be impacted by people leaving the labor force (technically defined as those “not looking for work”) and an aging population. I’ve discussed in prior blogs how we can get around this by looking at the employment-population ratio for prime age workers, i.e. workers aged 25-54 years. This measures the number of people working as a percent of the civilian population. Think of it as the opposite of the unemployment rate, and because we use prime age, you also get around the demographic issue.
The good news is that the prime-age employment-population ratio dropped only a tick, from 80.8% to 80.7%. This still leaves it higher than at any point between 2002 and 2022.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the labor market remains strong and resilient, despite all the recession calls. Perhaps its not as strong as the headline payroll growth number of 339,000 suggests, but any number above 150,000 would be good at this point. And we’re certainly well above that.
In fact, looking at the job growth and employment-population data, this labor market is probably the strongest we’ve seen since the late 1990’s. Our view since the end of last year has been that the economy can avoid a recession this year, and nothing we’ve seen to date suggests we need to reverse that view. Far from it.
June Better in Pre-Election Years
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Since 1971 June has shone brighter on NASDAQ stocks as a rule ranking eighth best with an 0.8% average gain, up 29 of 52 years. This contributes to NASDAQ’s “Best 8 Months” which ends in June. Small caps also fare well in June. Russell 2000 has averaged 0.6% in June since 1979 advancing 63.6% of the time.
June ranks near the bottom on the Dow Jones Industrials just above September since 1950 with an average loss of 0.2%. S&P 500 performs similarly poorly, ranking ninth, but essentially flat (0.02% average gain).
Despite being much stronger S&P 500 pre-election year June ranks fifth best. For the rest it is just sixth best. Average monthly gains in pre-election year June range from DJIA 1.1% to a respectable 2.4% for NASDAQ. Russell 2000 has been the most consistently bullish in pre-election years, up 8 of the last 11 (72.7% of the time).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The June Swoon?
Stocks did it again, as the S&P 500 gained 0.2% in the month of May, making it now 10 of the past 11 years that stocks finished green in May. Of course, it gained only 0.01% last year and only 0.25% this year, so the recent returns weren’t off the charts by any measure.
Looking specifically at this year, tech added more than 9% in May, thanks to excitement over AI and Nvidia, with communication services and consumer discretionary also in the green, while the other eight sectors were lower.
Specifically, turning to the month of June, stocks historically have hit a bit of trouble here. Since 1950, up 0.03% on average, the fourth worst month of the year. Over the past 20 years, only January and September have been worse and in the past decade, it is again the fourth worst month. The one bit of good news is during a pre-election year is it up 1.5%, the fifth-best month of the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here’s another chart we’ve shared before, but years that gained big in January (like 2023) tend to see some periods of consolidation in late May/early June, but eventually experience a surge higher into July. Given the flattish overall May, this could be playing out again.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
What if stocks were having a good year heading into June? Since 1950, if the S&P 500 was up more than 8% for the year going into June (like this year), the month of June was up an impressive 1.2% on average versus the average June return of 0.03%, while in a pre-election year the returns jumped to 1.8%. The percent of the time where returns were higher gets better as well, from 54.8% in your average June to nearly 74% if up 8% or more for the year heading into June, to 80% of the time higher if up 8% for the year in a pre-election year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Overall, it has been a very nice run for stocks this year and we remain overweight stocks in the Carson Investment Research House Views. June could potentially cause some volatility, but when all is said and done, we wouldn’t bet against more strength and higher prices in June.
NASDAQ and Russell 2000 Lead June Pre-Election Strength
Over the last 21 years, June has been a rather lackluster month. DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000 have all recorded average losses in the month. Russell 2000 has fared better with a modest average gain. Historically the month has opened respectably, advancing on the first and second trading days.
From there the market then drifted sideways and lower into negative territory just ahead of mid-month. Here the market rallied to create a nice mid-month bulge that quickly evaporated and returned to losses. The brisk, post, mid-month drop is typically followed by a month end rally led by technology and small caps.
Historical performance in pre-election years has been much stronger with all five indexes finishing with average gains. June’s overall pattern in pre-election is similar to the last 21-years pattern with a brief, shallow pullback after a solid start.
In pre-election years the mid-month rally has been much more robust beginning around the sixth trading day and lasting until the fifteenth. Followed by another modest retreat and rally into the end of Q2.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
May and YTD 2023 Asset Class Performance
May 2023 is now behind us, and below is a look at how various asset classes performed during the month using US-listed exchange-traded products as proxies. We also include YTD and YoY total returns.
May was a month of divergence where Tech/AI soared, and the rest of the market fell. Notably, the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) gained 7.88% in May while the Dow Jones Dividend ETF (DVY) fell 7.7%. That's a 15 percentage-point spread!
At the sector level, it was a similar story. While the Tech sector (XLK) rose 8.9%, sectors like Energy (XLE), Consumer Staples (XLP), Materials (XLB), and Utilities (XLU) fell more than 5%. In total, 8 of 11 sectors were in the red for the month.
Outside the US, we saw pullbacks in most areas of the world other than Brazil, India, and Japan. China, Hong Kong, France, Canada, Italy, Spain, and the UK all fell more than 5%.
All of the commodity-related ETFs/ETNs were in the red for May, with oil (USO) and natural gas (UNG) falling the most at more than 10% each.
Finally, fixed-income ETFs also fell in May as interest rates bounced back. The aggregate bond market ETF (AGG) was down 1.14% in May, leaving it up just 2.6% YTD and down 2.2% year-over-year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
How Worried Should We Be About Consumer Debt?
A very common question we get these days is whether we’re concerned about the massive increase in consumer debt.
Short answer: No. Well, not yet anyway. But let’s walk through it in 6 charts.
The New York Federal Reserve (NY Fed) releases a quarterly report on household debt and credit, and the latest one that was released last week came with the headline:
“Household Debt Hits $17.05 Trillion in First Quarter.” But let’s look at the details. Household debt increased by $148 billion in Q1. That translates to a 0.9% increase, which is the slowest quarterly increase in two years. Most of the increase in debt was from mortgage originations ($121 billion) – mortgage debt makes up $12 trillion of the total $17 trillion in debt. The rest was auto loan and student loan balances.
Here’s something interesting: credit card balances were flat in Q1, at $986 billion. The fact that overall balances are higher than where they were in 2019 ($927 billion) should not be surprising given we just experienced a lot of inflation. Prices rose at the fastest pace in 40 years, and so you should expect card balances to increase. However, incomes rose as well.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
When you think debt, the key question is whether households are able to service that debt. A good measure of that is to look at debt service costs as a percent of disposable income. As of Q4 2022, that’s at 9.7%, slightly lower than what it was before the pandemic and well below the historical average.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
There’s even better news: disposable income grew 2.9% in the first quarter of 2023. Significantly higher than the 0.9% increase in total household debt, let alone interest costs!
Part of that includes the large boost to social security income due to inflation adjustments in January. Also, tax brackets were adjusted higher, resulting in more money in household wallets.
But even if you exclude these one-off increases, disposable income growth has been strong between February and April, rising at a 5% annualized pace. In fact, employee compensation by itself has risen at a 3.9% annualized pace over the past three months. Meanwhile, inflation is running just about 3% – which means households are seeing real income gains (adjusted for inflation).
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This is why consumers don’t feel the need to borrow to the extent they did before the pandemic. Credit utilization rates measure credit card balances as a percent of available credit. As you can see in the following chart, utilization rates for both credit cards and home equity lines of credit are well below pre-pandemic averages.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Lack of stress showing in delinquency data as well
Another way to look for signs of consumer stress is to look at the debt delinquency data. As of the first quarter, the NY Fed survey showed that the percent of loan balances that were more than 90 days delinquent was stable around 1.5%. That’s down from 1.9% a year ago, and quite a bit below the 3% average in 2019.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Even third-party collections are at record lows, with just over 5% of consumers having collections against them as of the first quarter. This is down from 6% a year ago and below the 2019 average of 9.2%. The average collection amount per person is $1,316, which is lower than the $1,452 average in late 2019. This is surprising because just with inflation you’d have thought the amount would be higher.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
All in all, the data on consumer finances is not showing much cause for concern. So, count us in the “not worried” camp. At least, not yet.
Some Good Inflation News
While the market prices in a much higher likelihood of a rate hike at the June meeting, there was actually some decent news on the inflation front today. Starting with the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence report, in this month's update, the inflation expectations component fell to 6.1% from a peak of 7.9% fifteen months ago in March 2022 (first time reading touched 7.9%). Looking at the chart below, this reading was also at 6.1% fifteen months before that first peak. In other words, for all the talk about how inflation has been stickier, the pace of decline in this indicator on the way down has been the same as the pace of increase on the way up.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Another notable report was today's release of the Dallas Fed Manufacturing report. The Prices Paid component of that report showed a decline from 19.5 down to 13.8 which was the lowest reading since July 2020. For the month of May, two of the five components (Empire and Philadelphia) showed modest m/m increases from multi-month lows, and three showed significant declines to multi-month lows. The chart below shows a composite of the Prices Paid component using the z-scores for each of the five individual components going back to 2010. The peak for this component was 19 months ago in November 2021. Unlike the inflation expectations of the Conference Board survey, this reading hasn't declined quite as fast as it increased in the 19 months leading up to the peak, but at -0.2, it is still below its historical average dating back to 2010 and back down to levels it was at right before the COVID shock hit the economy in early 2020.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Home Prices Bounce in Hardest Hit Areas
March data on home prices across the country were released today with updated S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller numbers. Case Shiller home prices had been falling rapidly in many of the twenty cities tracked, but in March we actually saw a pretty big month-over-month bounce in some of the hardest-hit areas like San Diego, San Francisco, LA, Denver, and Phoenix. Some cities still saw declines, however. Las Vegas saw a m/m drop of 0.93%, while Miami fell 0.41%, and Seattle fell 0.28%.
On a year-over-year basis, Miami is still up the most with a gain of 10.86%. As shown in the table below, Miami home prices are up 59.87% from pre-COVID levels in February 2020, and they're only down 2.9% from post-COVID highs. Only Tampa is up more than Miami from pre-COVID levels (+61.04%), but Tampa prices are down more from their post-COVID highs (-4.70%) than Miami (-2.90%).
Four cities are down more than 10% from their post-COVID highs: San Diego (-10.12%), Las Vegas (-10.95%), San Francisco (-16.35%), and Seattle (-16.50%). New York is down the least from post-COVID highs of any city tracked at just -2.9%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
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Below we include charts of home price levels across all 20 cities tracked by Case Shiller along with the three composite indices. We've included a vertical red line on each chart to highlight pre-COVID levels. When looking through the charts, you can see this month's small bounce back in most cities after a 6-9 month pullback in prices from peaks seen early last year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
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STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending June 5th, 2023
(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 6/2/23
([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)($NIO $GTLB $GME $CIEN $DOCU $SAIC $ASO $SJM $CXM $THO $OLLI $MOMO $CBRL $FERG $TTC $HQY $CPB $PLAY $QMCO $FCEL $LOVE $ABM $CNM $HTOO $TCOM $JOAN $UNFI $SFIX $CHS $GIII $SIG $SMAR $PL $ZFOX $HYZN $VRA $CASY $MTN $SMTC $ALYA $DBI $SCWX $JILL $OESX $BSE $REVG $VBNK $VRNT $RENT $HCP)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
([CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!]())
(N/A.)
Monday 6.5.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Monday 6.5.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 6.6.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Tuesday 6.6.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.7.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 6.7.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.8.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Thursday 6.8.23 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Friday 6.9.23 Before Market Open:
(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES LINK!)
Friday 6.9.23 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
DISCUSS!
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2023.06.02 23:39 diamondeyes7 I (mid-30s) am looking to move to a new city next year. I still want marriage and kids, should I move to the area that I'd prefer to live in alone first, and then move to the city I want to raise kids in? Or just move to the city I'd want to raise kids in?
I'll be 36 at the time of this move, and I want to have kids in the next 5 years. I think I've settled between Denver, Las Vegas and Phoenix (moving from Austin).
I actually lived in Denver 10 years ago, and thought it would be a great area to raise kids. Great schools, great healthcare and taxes help the community. Not a fan of the snow, but it's around 250 days of sun/year so I could probably deal. This would probably be the best city to find someone to settle down with.
I visited Las Vegas las August and didn't find the heat unbearable. I really liked the Summerlin and Henderson areas. However, it's a transient city so dating might be hard. Education is also not great, and neither is healthcare. But I would feel safer being pregnant in NV than TX due to the progressive laws (safe abortions in case of a miscarriage or emergency). The Las Vegas area also recycles water and seems to be "green" conscious. About 8 years I had a slight interest in moving to Vegas, but it wasn't that serious at the time.
I also keep coming back to Phoenix. I visited there a few years ago in the fall and loved it. I was actually planning on moving there last year, but Roe was overturned so I held off. Education doesn't seem the best, but it's better than NV, so I wouldn't be completely opposed to raising kids there. Healthcare seems decent, abortions are legal up to 15 (I think) weeks, so I'd feel safer being pregnant there vs. Austin. The water situation is also concerning, Vegas seems to have a better handle on it than AZ.
I think if I were a few years younger, I'd be more inclined to move to Las Vegas for a bit, but since I'll be 36 and want a family, Denver (or Phoenix) might be the better option for now. Or I could go to Las Vegas, and move to Denver once my kids are in school? Or I could sign a 6 month lease in Denver, and decide from there? I could also visit Phoenix and Las Vegas again this summer, to double-check on how I feel about the heat. As I've already lived in Denver, I would rather check out the other cities again.
I'd appreciate any advice, or any tips on how to figure out what I want lol
Help I'm indecisive 😬
submitted by diamondeyes7 to AskWomenOver30 [link] [comments]
I actually lived in Denver 10 years ago, and thought it would be a great area to raise kids. Great schools, great healthcare and taxes help the community. Not a fan of the snow, but it's around 250 days of sun/year so I could probably deal. This would probably be the best city to find someone to settle down with.
I visited Las Vegas las August and didn't find the heat unbearable. I really liked the Summerlin and Henderson areas. However, it's a transient city so dating might be hard. Education is also not great, and neither is healthcare. But I would feel safer being pregnant in NV than TX due to the progressive laws (safe abortions in case of a miscarriage or emergency). The Las Vegas area also recycles water and seems to be "green" conscious. About 8 years I had a slight interest in moving to Vegas, but it wasn't that serious at the time.
I also keep coming back to Phoenix. I visited there a few years ago in the fall and loved it. I was actually planning on moving there last year, but Roe was overturned so I held off. Education doesn't seem the best, but it's better than NV, so I wouldn't be completely opposed to raising kids there. Healthcare seems decent, abortions are legal up to 15 (I think) weeks, so I'd feel safer being pregnant there vs. Austin. The water situation is also concerning, Vegas seems to have a better handle on it than AZ.
I think if I were a few years younger, I'd be more inclined to move to Las Vegas for a bit, but since I'll be 36 and want a family, Denver (or Phoenix) might be the better option for now. Or I could go to Las Vegas, and move to Denver once my kids are in school? Or I could sign a 6 month lease in Denver, and decide from there? I could also visit Phoenix and Las Vegas again this summer, to double-check on how I feel about the heat. As I've already lived in Denver, I would rather check out the other cities again.
I'd appreciate any advice, or any tips on how to figure out what I want lol
Help I'm indecisive 😬