In full disclosure, I really hate to say this as someone who absolutely loathes Trump, so much so that I'd vote for DeSantis in a primary as a Biden supporter to eliminate any risk of Trump being POTUS again. But ever since election day 2022, when I bought the conventional wisdom that DeSantis was probably going to beat Trump for the nomination and would have a decent shot to beat Biden in the general election, I've come to regrettably realize that Trump, while not a favorite in a general election, would have a better chance to beat Biden in the general, and here's why:
First, there’s the issue of low propensity/Trump only voters. We’ve seen Trump beat his polls twice, and there are a lot of theories as to why, but I think given the accuracy of polling when Trump’s not on the ballot, it’s pretty clear that there’s a Trump-only vote, and that this “Trumpism without Trump” theory doesn’t work. That may be MAGA diehards who screw with pollsters for fun, or it may be a socially-estranged, low-trust, not-answering-phone kind of person who doesn’t pay attention to the news much and only votes for Trump in a general election because he’s the only candidate who’s in the news enough to draw their attention. It’s probably a bit of both, but there’s not a lot of evidence that non-Trump Republicans have much of this appeal, especially in swing states. I concede that DeSantis beat his polls in Florida twice, but Republicans underperformed their polls in basically every other swing state in 2022 (if Florida counts as a swing state), 2018 had errors in both directions, and Romney underperformed his polls in 2012. If these people exist, and are key to Republicans winning or keeping presidential elections close, then that’s a problem for DeSantis as non-Trump candidates don’t seem to have the ability to turn them out, and DeSantis, by trying to do “Trumpism without Trump” probably increases the odds that he will Blake Masters himself rather than get himself elected POTUS.
Second, people who think DeSantis is more electable need to take a look at the electoral college, and what's driven the key states in the directions that they've been driven in. I would agree that given his inroads in the suburbs and with Hispanics, DeSantis would have better odds than Trump in Georgia and Arizona, and would probably make Biden's odds of winning North Carolina or Texas close to zero. But even if DeSantis wins Georgia and Arizona - which is far from a guarantee, that gets him only to 262 EVs if all other states hold from 2016. DeSantis would then have to flip Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania, which seems doable given their 2020 margins, except for the fact that DeSantis has one major achilles heel in these states, and that is abortion. Republicans lost the governorships in all three states in 2022, in Michigan and Pennsylvania by landslide margins where the losing candidates took very extreme stances on abortion, and we all saw how the Democrats won the Wisconsin Supreme Court seat by 11 points in no small part due to abortion, and DeSantis's 6-week ban is not going to play well in overwhelmingly pro-choice states as the three big Rust Belt states are. And while Trump can be linked to Dobbs given his justice picks, Trump has not staked out extreme positions on abortion for the most part, and he has one big advantage over DeSantis in these states, which is that he actually won them in 2016. Granted, he did lose them in 2020, but not by much, so I wouldn’t say he’s favored in them, certainly not in Michigan or Pennsylvania. But think about the last time these states elected a non-Trump Republican in a general election. Ron Johnson was that in 2022, and that Johnson and Pat Toomey won in 2016, but that’s while Trump was on the ballot. George W. Bush lost all these states, Obama cleaned McCain and Romney’s clocks in all these states, and the most recent cases that you can point to where they elected non-Trump Republicans outside of Ron Johnson (who ran against a disastrous opponent) were when Scott Walker and Rick Snyder won… in 2014, 10 years before 2024. Trump’s not strong or favored to win in these states, but he at least has a record of a fighting chance, whereas DeSantis’s style of politics has a very poor track record in them.
And finally - and I think this is the big one: the electability argument that people have re Trump vs. DeSantis in 2024 get talked about in a similar way to the Biden vs. Sanders one in 2020. And if you could feel relatively certain that whoever loses the primary will throw his support behind the nominee, as you could in the case with Biden and Sanders, that would make sense. If you assumed as a given that if Trump lost the primary, he would endorse DeSantis in the general, give a convention speech, etc. then the case for DeSantis being more electable would make sense. But that's the problem, is that you can't assume that. It's not something you can quantify in a model, and we do have to rely on subjective probability here, but I would dare anybody who thinks DeSantis is the way Republicans beat Biden to answer the question: what about Trump tells you that he's going to be a good sport and throw his support behind the guy who beat him in the primary? The man has no record of being a good sport, and the one argument that I think is somewhat persuasive that he would be in this case - that Trump would need DeSantis to win the presidency in order to get a pardon from his legal issues, that argument is undermined by the fact that Trump's biggest legal threat is in Georgia, not from the feds, and even if DeSantis pardons Trump in the documents and (if they bring charges), the 1/6 investigation, he can't save Trump AT ALL from a likely racketeering case that the Atlanta DA is going to bring. Even if a DeSantis presidency could save Trump from all his legal issues, it's not even clear that Trump would have the self-discipline to support him given his demonstrated lack of self-discipline, and given that it can't, I don't think the "but the pardon" argument holds.
I’m not saying that I think Trump is our next president. He could lose the nomination due to indictments convincing people DeSantis is more electable, and if he wins it, he’s an underdog in a general election given Biden’s incumbency advantage, his tarnished image post-1/6, and the fact that the economy seems to be holding up OK enough to not sink an incumbent (though the last point I’m least sure about). But I just don’t see how the Republicans have much of a shot to win without him.I rest my case here, and want everyone’s agreements/disagreements. This was fun to write!

Best Picture

1. Past Lives (Winner)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Dune: Part Two
4. Anatomy of a Fall
5. Rustin
6. Poor Things
7. The Killer
8. The Color Purple
9. Strangers
10. Oppenheimer

Alt: Air, Barbie, La Chimera, How Do You Live?, The Iron Claw, Maestro, The Zone of Interest
​
Best Director

1. Martin Scorsese - Killers of the Flower Moon (Winner)
2. Denis Villeneuve - Dune: Part Two
3. David Fincher - The Killer
4. Celine Song - Past Lives
5. Justine Trier - Anatomy of a Fall

Alt: Greta Gerwig - Barbie, Alice Rohrwacher - La Chimera, Miyazaki Hayao - How Do You Live?, Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer, Jonathan Glazer - The Zone of Interest
​
Best Actress

1. Annette Bening - Nyad (Winner)
2. Fantasia - The Color Purple
3. Greta Lee - Past Lives
4. Emma Stone - Poor Things
5. Sandra Hüller - Anatomy of a Fall

Alt: Regina King - Shirley, Carey Mulligan - Maestro, Margot Robbie - Barbie, Natalie Portman - May December, Sandra Hüller - The Zone of Interest
​
Best Actor

1. Colman Domingo - Rustin (Winner)
2. Leonardo DiCaprio - Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Bradley Cooper - Maestro
4. Michael Fassbender - The Killer
5. Ben Whishaw - Limonov: The Ballad of Eddie (NGNG)

Alt: André Holland - The Actor, Barry Keoghan - Saltburn, Yakusho Kōji - Perfect Days, Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer, Yoo Teo - Past Lives
​
Best Supporting Actress

1. Lilly Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon (Winner)
2. Audra McDonald - Rustin
3. Danielle Brooks - The Color Purple
4. Julianne Moore - May December
5. Maura Tierney - The Iron Claw

Alt: Tantoo Cardinal - Killers of the Flower Moon, Taraji P. Henson - The Color Purple, Kaimana - Next Goal Wins, Rosamund Pike - Saltburn, Tilda Swinton - The Killer
​
Best Supporting Actor

1. John Magaro - Past Lives (Winner)
2. Robert De Niro - Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Mark Ruffalo - Poor Things
4. Jesse Plemons - Killers of the Flower Moon
5. Jeremy Allen White - The Iron Claw

Alt: Willem Dafoe - Poor Things, Colman Domingo - The Color Purple, Ryan Gosling - Barbie, Charles Melton - May December, Paul Mescal - Strangers
​
Best Original Screenplay

1. Celine Song - Past Lives (Winner)
2. Dustin Lance Black and George C. Wolfe - Rustin
3. Samy Burch and Alex Mechanik - May December
4. Justine Trier - Anatomy of a Fall
5. Sean Durkin - The Iron Claw

Alt: Alex Convery - Air, Alice Rohrwacher - La Chimera, Pawel Pawlikowski, Ben Hopkins and Kirill Serebrennikov - Limonov: The Ballad of Eddie, Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer - Maestro, Emerald Fennell - Saltburn
​
Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Andrew Haigh - Strangers (Winner)
2. Tony McNamara - Poor Things
3. Eric Roth - Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Jonathan Grazer - The Zone of Interest
5. Kelly Fremon Craig - Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret.

Alt: Noah Baumbach and Greta Gerwig - Barbie, Jon Spaihts, and Denis Villeneuve - Dune: Part Two, Miyazaki Hayao - How Do You Live?, Taika Waititi and Iain Morris - Next Goal Wins, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller and David Callaham - Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
​
Best International Feature

1. Anatomy of a Fall / Anatomie d'une chute (FRANCE, Justine Trier) (Winner)
2. The Zone of Interest / Strefa interesów (POLAND, Jonathan Glazer)
3. How Do You Live? / 君たちはどう生きるか (JAPAN, Miyazaki Hayao)
4. El Conde (CHILE, Pablo Larraín)
5. Next Sohee / 다음 소희 (SOUTH KOREA, Jung July)

Alt: About Dry Grasses / Kuru Otlar Üstüne (TURKEY, Nuri Bilge Ceylan), La Chimera (ITALY, Alice Rohrwacher), Dead Leaves / Kuolleet lehdet (FINLAND, Aki Kaurismäki), Housekeeping For Beginners / Домаќинство за почетници (NORTH MACEDONIA, Goran Stolevski), Monster / 怪物 (JAPAN, Koreeda Hirokazu)
​
Best Documentary Feature

1. Stamped from the Beginning (Winner)
2. Beyond Utopia
3. The Orwell
4. The Echo
5. The Stroll

Alt: Another Body, The Disappearance of Shere Hite, The Eternal Memory, Occepied City, 20 Days in Mariupol
​
Best Animated Feature

1. How Do You Live? (Winner)
2. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
3. Elemental
4. Wish
5. Nimona

Alt: Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget, High in the Clouds, Spellbound, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Suzume
​
Best Cinematography

1. Rodrigo Prieto - Killers of the Flower Moon (Winner)
2. Hoyte van Hoytema - Oppenheimer
3. Erik Messerschmidt - The Killer
4. Łukasz Żal - The Zone of Interest
5. Jamie D. Ramsay - Strangers

Alt: Cevahir Sahin and Kürsat Üresin - About Dry Grasses, Graig Fraser - Dune: Part Two, Christopher Blauvelt - May December, Claudio Miranda - Nyad, Robbie Ryan - Poor Things
​
Best Original Score

1. Hans Zimmer - Dune: Part Two (Winner)
2. Ludwig Göransson - Oppenheimer
3. John Williams - Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
4. Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross - The Killer
5. Mica Levi - The Zone of Interest

Alt: Alexandre Desplat - Barbie, Thomas Newman - Elemental, Hisaishi Joe - How Do You Live?, Robbie Robertson - Killers of the Flower Moon, Christopher Bear and Daniel Rossen - Past Lives
​
Best Editing

1. Thelma Schoonmaker - Killers of the Flower Moon (Winner)
2. Joe Walker - Dune: Part Two
3. Keith Fraase - Past Lives
4. Kirk Baxter - The Killer
5. Matthew Hannam - The Iron Claw

Alt: Jon Poll - The Color Purple, Michelle Tosoro - Maestro, Tom Eagles, Yana Gorskaya, Nicholas Monsour and Nat Sanders - Next Goal Wins, Jannifer Lame - Oppenheimer, Paul Watts - The Zone of Interest
​
Best Costume Design

1. Jacqueline Durran - Barbie (Winner)
2. Holly Waddington - Poor Things
3. Jacqueline West - Dune: Part Two
4. Oliver Garcia - Chevalier
5. Francine Jamison-Tanchuck - The Color Purple

Alt: Jacqueline West - Killers of the Flower Moon, Colleen Atwood - The Little Mermaid, Mark Bridges - Maestro, Janty Yates - Napoleon, Lindy Hemming - Wonka
​
Best Production Design

1. Barbie (Winner)
2. Poor Things
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Dune: Part Two
5. The Color Purple

Alt: Asteroid City, The Killer, Oppenheimer, Spaceman, The Zone of Interest
​
Best Makeup & Hairstyling

1. Maestro (Winner)
2. Nyad
3. Poor Things
4. Dune: Part Two
5. Barbie

Alt: Chevalier, The Color Purple, Ferrari, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Shirley
​
Best Sound

1. Dune: Part Two (Winner)
2. Oppenheimer
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. The Killer
5. Ferrari

Alt: The Color Purple, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, John Wick: Chapter 4, Nyad, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
​
Best Visual Effects

1. Dune: Part Two (Winner)
2. Oppenheimer
3. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
5. The Killer

Alt: Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom, John Wick: Chapter 4, The Little Mermaid, The Marvels, Spaceman

This is the best tl;dr I could make, original reduced by 70%. (I'm a bot)

ANKARA, June 3 - President Tayyip Erdogan called on Turks to put aside their differences and focus on the future as he assumed office for a new five-year term on Saturday.
Erdogan was sworn in at a ceremony at the parliament in Ankara and is will later name a new cabinet whose make-up is expected to signal a possible change of direction in economic policy including an end to an era of low interest rates.
At an inauguration ceremony at the presidential palace, Erdogan struck a conciliatory tone.
His new mandate will allow Erdogan to pursue the increasingly authoritarian policies that have polarised the country, a NATO member, but strengthened its position as a regional military power.
7/7] Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan greets his supporters following early exit poll results for the second round of the presidential election in Istanbul, Turkey May 28, 2023.
The May 14 presidential election and May 28 runoff were pivotal given that the opposition had been confident of ousting Erdogan and reversing many of his policies, including proposing sharp interest rate hikes to counter inflation, running at 44% in April.

Summary Source FAQ Feedback Top keywords: Erdogan^#1 new^#2 election^#3 Turkey^#4 Minister^#5
Post found in /worldnews.
NOTICE: This thread is for discussing the submission topic. Please do not discuss the concept of the autotldr bot here.

When Everything You Touch Turns to Crime
Picking Donald Trump’s worst week is a mug’s game—there are so many from which to choose, and compelling arguments for several—but simply because they encompass so many parts of the Trump experience, the last few days are emblematic.
On Saturday, the former president called for the United States Constitution to be “terminate[d]” in response to his own fake claims of election fraud in 2020. On Monday, he lied about what he’d said and blamed the media. On Tuesday, his handpicked candidate for U.S. Senate in the once reliably ruby state of Georgia lost to the Democratic incumbent Raphael Warnock, concluding a midterm cycle in which Democrats defied precedent, thanks in large part to the president’s presence and primary meddling. And then there are Trump’s problems with the law.
Together, these two news items show the sweep of Trump’s lawlessness, from the mundane to the unique. The business crimes are a classic small-time offense. The only remarkable thing about that case is that it happens to involve the former president’s company. Meanwhile, in the case of classified documents, the evidence suggests he committed a crime that nearly no person other than a former president could commit.
More at the link at the top of this post, including the omitted paragraphs...
And more and more crimes will be added to this alright unprecedented police blotter...

​
This is the 7th post in a series going over the bowl seasons from 1974-1997. Each year I'm examining the bowls with national title implications and the teams competing for the #1 ranking. If you want to catch up on prior seasons, check out the link to the master post as well!
https://www.reddit.com/CFB/comments/13rssrf/bowls\_and\_the\_race\_for\_the\_mythical\_national/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3

Setting the Stage

Final Regular Season Polls

Team	Record	AP	Coaches
Georgia	11-0	1	1 (37)
Florida St	10-1	2	2 (1)
Pittsburgh	10-1	3	3 (1)

• September 27th: Florida St lost to Miami, 9-10. The Canes finished the year 9-3.
• October 11th: Florida St beat Pittsburgh 36-22
• December 6th: #2 Notre Dame lost to USC 20-3

Another season where college footballs top teams didn't play each other. #1 Georgia was tied to the Sugar Bowl, which extended an invite to then #2 Notre Dame in mid November, creating a would be de facto national title.. But there was one problem . . . the Irish hadn't played their last game, which they lost handily to USC. Had the bowls waited til everyone's regular season was over, its possible the Sugar would've taken Florida St instead. Given FSU's regular season win over #3 Pitt, college football ironically would've had it's de facto national title had they taken FSU. This is absolutely ridiculous and I love it.
​

The Bowls

Gator Bowl #3 Pitt vs #18 South Carolina (December 29th)
Pitt had a chance to claim a title, but would need a lot of help. In addition to a win, they would need both #1 Georgia and #2 Florida St (the only team they lost too) to lose their bowls. This wasn't as far fetched as one would think as Georgia and FSU were 1 and 5 1/2 point dogs in their respective games. Pitt did their part to keep things interesting, dominating the Gamecocks from start to finish in a 37-9 route.
​
Sugar Bowl #1 Georgia vs #7 Notre Dame (Jan 1st, 2pm EST)
Notre Dame didn't do their part to make this a de facto championship game, but for Georgia #1 was still on the line. As the consensus #1 team, they just needed to simply win and the Orange Bowl later that evening wouldn't matter. Lose and the national title would likely come down to Pitt or Florida St. Notre Dame drew first blood with a field goal in the 1st. Georgia, led by true freshman Herschel Walker, responded with 17 unanswered to lead 17-3 at the half. The Irish countered with a 3rd quarter TD, to make it a one score game, but that was all the Dawgs D would allow. Georgia won 17-10 and was well on the way to a consensus national title.
​
Orange Bowl #2 Florida St vs #4 Oklahoma (Jan 1st, 8pm EST)
The Seminoles never got their chance to challenge Georgia head to head, but still had a chance to claim their 1st national title if the Dawgs slipped up earlier in the day. Unfortunately by kickoff, their title hopes were dashed. The game still turned out to be a classic. The teams were tied at 10 entering the 4th quarter. With just over 3 minutes to go, the Seminoles recovered a Sooner fumble in the end zone to take a 17-10 lead. The Sooners kept their composure and countered with a 78 yard TD drive and successfully converted a 2 point conversion to lead 18-17. Florida St missed a desperation 62 yard field goal at the gun.
​

Final Results

*Only includes teams receiving 1st place votes in either poll

Team	record	AP	Coaches
Georgia	12-0	1 (58 1/2)	1 (36)
Pittsburgh	11-1	2 (3 1/2)	2 (3)
Florida St	10-2	5 (1)	5
Michigan	10-2	4	4 (1)

For a 2nd straight year, things worked out pretty cleanly. Although a few rogue voters went their own way, Georgia, the only unbeaten team in the nation, was overwhelmingly voted #1 in each poll. As for the half vote, one AP voter declared both Georgia and Pitt #1, which I guess is allowed? This would be Georgia's last National title until 2021.

2012: R+31 2016: R+19 2020: R+7
I heard Warnock only lost the county by 500 votes in his 2022 runoff, though Kemp won it by 12 in 2022.
View Poll

This was posted in the AngryObservation subreddit (that I stumbled on two seconds ago)
Essay posted by u/dcmetro7
https://www.reddit.com/usedcmetro7/
Democrats have a branding problem : AngryObservation (reddit.com)

Democrats have a branding problem

😴 Long Observation 😴
I was inspired by u/Randomuser1520 's post about the Democratic Party's seemingly weak bench of future potential presidential nominees.
A lot of the problems trace back to 2016, but I'd argue the Democrats' branding woes go back even further. Think all the way back to the last time the Democrats had a consistently strong electoral record as a party -- the 90s, where the only truly bad year for Ds was 1994. Bill Clinton had successfully rebranded the party under the 'Third Way' label that Dems at any level could embrace and benefit from, and he had a clear successor in Al Gore. But Gore loses narrowly in 2000, and the problems for the Dems' brand begin.
'Yes We Can'
After 9/11, the electorate supports Bush and they support war. Dems' brand takes a hit and they lose the 2002 midterms. In 2004, John Kerry is successfully painted as an out-of-touch Ivy League liberal, disengaged from 'real America.' Dems lose and their brand suffers further.
But by the end of Bush's term, most Americans are disillusioned with Dubyaism. They wanted change, and one man promises to lead them to it with posters that proclaim 'HOPE' and cries of 'Yes We Can,' heralding in a new age of politics. Barack Obama and the Democrats are swept into a trifecta in Washington.
And we certainly got a new age of politics. When Obama was inaugurated, pundits speculated about the 'emerging Democratic majority', and how the GOP may literally go extinct in ten years. By the end of Obama's second term, those same pundits are surveying the absolutely decimated state of the Democratic party at all levels of power. Dems had lost the Senate, the House, most governorships, and most state legislatures. Control of the state legislatures makes the GOP's hold on the House even stronger. Control of the Senate effectively leads to control of the Supreme Court.
While Obama certainly can't be blamed for everything the GOP threw at him, I feel like it's safe to say his rebranding of the Democratic party failed in the long run. The 'Party of Hope' was sunk into the quagmire of a slow economic recovery, some of the most cynical politicking ever, and some of the most dysfunctional White House-Congress relationships in the history of the country. Obama's signature healthcare legislation would languish in the 30s approval-wise until after he left office. By 2015, no one was talking about the Democrats as the Party of Hope anymore. Even the guy who designed the original 'Hope' poster said he was frustrated by the lack of progress under the Obama admin. I'd argue that the Republicans were responsible for the clear majority of this dysfunction, but if their goal was to muddy the waters between the parties, they succeeded. And with the Tea Party, they were better at rebranding themselves even when they were in the opposition.
And none of this was helped by the face that Obama seemed extremely reluctant, even uninterested, in stepping into the role of party leader. Congressional Democrats were frustrated at the way he kept his distance from them, making it hard to solidify the policy goals they'd implemented in his first term. This article (https://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/19/us/aloof-obama-is-frustrating-his-own-party.html) sums it up well, with this prescient quote sticking out:

In interviews, nearly two dozen Democratic lawmakers and senior congressional aides suggested that Mr. Obama’s approach has left him with few loyalists to effectively manage the issues erupting abroad and at home and could imperil his efforts to leave a legacy in his final stretch in office.

And sure enough, Obama's legacy was in peril before he even left office.
'Stronger Together'
In 2016, Democrats didn't plan for a primary, they planned for a coronation. Hillary Clinton had been locking up all the support she could get from the Democratic establishment while Obama was serving his second term. Biden would seem like the clear establishment successor, but by the time he was able to turn his attention from VP duties to the primary he realized Hillary had completely boxed him out. She had already corralled all the big donors, operatives, and endorsements into her corner, and Joe was checkmated before he even sat down to the board. Thus, he turned down the opportunity, likely burying his long-nurtured presidential ambitions.
But then the coronation gets bumpy. Sanders challenges her from the outside, and immediately begins putting her on the spot as to why she's running. In other words, what does she envision for the Democratic brand? Hillary herself doesn't know. Is it a third term of Bill (whose star was starting to fade among everyone whose name doesn't rhyme with Shames Scarville), a third term of Obama (whose Hope posters have since become landfill), or an all-new thing?
To Hillary's credit, she couldn't portray herself as a total break from the past, both because she had been was strongly anchored to the national political landscape for the last thirty years, and because she could hardly attack Obama's record too harshly. In the end, she also struggled to brand both herself and the party. Consider the slogans most associated with her campaign; 'Forward Together' and 'Stronger Together' sound like the slogans of a centrist third party with no concrete policy ideas. They just attempted to project a feeling of unity onto a people who were united only, if the candidacies of Sanders and Trump meant anything, in the feeling that 'establishment' politicians like HRC had failed. And, of course, 'I'm with Her' was barely a rebrand at all, simply associating the party with its uncharismatic yet seemingly unstoppable frontrunner.
In the meantime, Trump had done the opposite, rebranding himself and the GOP as the party of 'America First populism.' What that meant exactly in terms of policy seemed to change from day to day But as a brand, as a forceful statement of intent, it worked, especially when contrasted with a seemingly rudderless HRC campaign that failed to answer the age-old question: 'Why are you running for president?'
'For the People'
After the 2016 fiasco, the Democrats were decimated and leaderless. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid had passed his leadership position to Chuck Schumer and passed on soon after Trump took office. Tim Ryan led a mutiny against Nancy Pelosi, blaming her in part for the party's plunge from ascendance to irrelevance in the House. Hillary Clinton disappeared into the woods of Chappaqua. Obama started making a docu-series for Netflix. Joe Biden entered semi-retirement and wrote a book.
But in all of this, they found something they had been lacking. A brand.
Not the one they would have preferred, but one that would work nonetheless for winning elections. House Dems would embrace the (once-again) vague slogan of 'For the People' ahead of the 2018 midterms, but the aim was clear. The Democrats were now the Opposition; the Anti-Trump party.
Trump's approval rating was not just low, but incredibly sticky. People tended to have very firm opinions on him, and so his approval rating barely escaped the 35-45% range, with him almost hitting 50% before the pandemic hit. Thus, running on opposition to Trump would be fine electorally. In 2018, the Democrats had a blue wave year based mostly on opposition to Trump, retaking the house. Ironically, a big policy motivator for voters was backlash against the GOP's effort to repeal and replace Obamacare -- a promise that had driven Republican electoral gains since the bill was passed into law. Republican branding and messaging had been so successful that, for the better part of the decade, people trusted them to 'fix' the ACA until the very last minute before the replacement was signed.
'Battle for the Soul of the Nation'
But the problem remained for 2020 -- who would lead them? This was a difficult decision even before the pandemic. And Democratic primary voters were treated to a veritable buffet on angles on how to rebrand the party to beat Trump.
Should the party embrace democratic socialism under Sanders, or heavy consumer advocacy under Warren? Should it embrace a young, charismatic up-and-comer like Harris, Buttigieg, or O'Rourke or someone just as 'establishment' as Hillary, like Michael Bloomberg? Old-school liberalism with the Klob? Whatever Andrew Yang was doing?
But as the polls drew near, the Democrats seemed to conclude that beating Trump was simply more important than charting a new course for the party. If they could get elected or rebrand, they'd choose the former. And so all the other more moderate candidates dropped out to consolidate the vote around Biden, as the safe, expected pick who could stay the course. Biden and his surrogates began adopting the slogan 'Battle for the Soul of the Nation,' an epic and apocalyptic phrase that is still fundamentally reactive in tone, implying that the biggest motivator to vote for Democrats that fall was not to pass any specific agenda, but to put a stop to the GOP's plans.
Biden wouldn't govern in this way, but he would campaign this way -- as the normal, capable candidate who could lead the country's post-covid recovery in opposition to Trump's perceived incompetence. Biden won, but Democrats didn't get nearly the boost they wanted from covid, and House candidates underperformed Biden nationally, leading to a surprising loss of seats in the House. And after the effort to throw out the election failed, Trump left office with severely damaged standing with independents. The anti-Trump brand had delivered Dems a trifecta; now it was time to use it; hopefully to establish a new brand for a new decade.
'Building Back Better'
Upon taking office, Biden and the Dems lay out their agenda; the 'Build Back Better' plan, which centers on a three-pronged approach; a pandemic relief bill, an infrastructure bill, and a social policy bill. Passing such plans will involve all 50 Senate D's on board in some cases, and a bipartisan filibuster-proof majority of 60 senators in other cases.
People laugh, think back to 2010, and begin arguing whether a prediction that the GOP will control 55 Senate seats by 2023 is too conservative. Nancy Pelosi is trying to manage a mere five-seat majority in the house. Mitch McConnell, who once feasted on the Democrats' lost hopes the way a hungry turtle devours a plate of juicy strawberries, still held enough sway in the Senate to hold up any significant policy not related to budget reconciliation. Even then, Schumer must wrangle mavericks like Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema. Dramatic divisions still rip across the fabric of American society. But then, something truly strange happens.
The 117th Congress ends up being one of the most productive sessions ever.
Whether or not you think any or all of the 117th's acts were good policy, it's undeniable that this was an unusually politically efficient session, especially considering the last decade of hardball politics. Bipartisan majorities drive the infrastructure act, a gun control act, a tech-manufacturing promotion act, and even a somewhat-legalization of same-sex marriage nationwide. Plus, Schumer and Pelosi navigate their tiny majorities toward passing partisan priorities, like the pandemic relief act and the scaled-down Build Back Better social policy bill, rebranded as the Inflation Reduction Act or IRA. McConnell drops his trademark stonewalling and collaborates with Biden on the bipartisan bills, and 'Yea' votes roll in even from deep red states -- Republican senators from Mississippi, West Virginia, and North Dakota get these bills over the line. Bipartisanship returns to Congress in fleeting glances -- something that I feel confident in arguing absolutely no one expected Biden or the Dem leaders to be able to do.
Of course, no one has forgotten 2010, and 2022 looks to be another rough year. Inflation soars, and Biden's approval rating drops. Dems brace for impact. The Dobbs ruling happens, but polls repeatedly suggest that the economy is the top issue on voters' minds, and they don't like Biden's handling of it.
But while these things are true, they ignore a crucial factor -- the GOP is embroiled in an identity crisis of its own. The leader of the party is claiming to be the legitimate president of the United States, which is a bit of a hard issue to ignore. Trump loyalists beat out 'establishment' Republicans in the primaries, and bring their hard promotion of the MAGA brand to the general elections. And they lose.
I think it's fair to say that the GOP lost most of the key races of the 2022 midterms, rather than Democrats winning them. Swing state Republican parties chose candidates who adhered so closely to a brand so toxic that independents still chose the Democrats, even in some cases where they were dissatisfied with the party. Republicans who have managed to establish a brand for themselves -- DeSantis, Kemp, and DeWine among them -- soar, while the Trumpiest candidates fall flat. McConnell remains in the minority, and McCarthy becomes the head of a very, very dysfunctional family.
Will Brandon's Rebrand Stand?
So, coming off an unusually strong midterm, where does the party go in 2024? Probably, as u/Randomuser1520 said, back to Biden. When your party wins one of the most fiercely contested elections in American history, has a productive legislative session, and then massively overperforms in the midterm, you don't usually change horses regardless of what approval polling says. If Biden were just 10 years younger and the health concerns were off the table, there would be no question in anyone's mind who to nominate.
The establishment and progressive wings of the party seem to be behind him if he runs, meaning challenges will only come from real outsiders like Marianne Williamson and Robert Kennedy Jr. The DNC will probably work to make those challenges as unviable as possible.
2024 is tricky to predict. Trump is favored on the Republican side, and as said before, his brand is so toxic that Biden can probably glide to reelection barring any massive economic downturns or serious health problems. I won't get too much into 2024, because it seems pretty clearly on the path to becoming another referendum on the GOP's brand, not the Democrats'. Biden's second term (and the rest of his first term) may be defined as much by implementation of the legislation they passed during the 117th as much as by new legislation, if not more.
So the question becomes this -- where does the party go in 2028? Or, in other words, what will Democrats take away from the Biden presidency, and how will Biden shape the party's brand going forward? Who they choose to lead the party next will tell, and Biden's presidency may already be laying out a blueprint.
In his 1996 State of the Union address, Bill Clinton declared 'the era of big government is over,' essentially conceding that Reagan and his vision of a small role for the federal government in domestic affairs had won out for the time, and that Democrats would need to work within that political reality in order to win elections. Obama's efforts to change that status quo resulted in an avalanche of backlash from Tea Partiers, self-proclaimed champions of fiscal conservatism. Hillary Clinton's failed campaign strategy arguably rested more on that understanding of the political climate than anything else, causing her to miss a series of growing frustrations with Reaganism at times channelled by Sanders and, at times, Trump -- at decimation of the manufacturing sector, at the growing gap between rich and poor, at China's seemingly unstoppable three-decade rise at the expense of the U.S.
Biden's approach to American industry and government is a strong repudiation of Reaganism, based around the idea that it is the government's job to fortify and guide the economy in ways that are necessary where the free market has little incentive to. It argues that the issues of infrastructural decay, manufacturing decline, and the growing need for green energy in the face of climate change will only be solved if the government directs the power of the private sector towards those goals at great upfront cost. And free trade, long held as the unassailable source of America's prosperity, must now only be employed in moderation -- if the U.S. has to arguably break international law to lure foreign investment into the U.S. through generous subsidies, it will be worth it, even if it earns the fury of our economic partners. This may be the groundwork of Bidenism.
These plans may fail. The money may be wasted by incompetent or corrupt administrators and the American people may become even more jaded at the thought of big government. But movement within the GOP may suggest a broader shift in the American mind towards this kind of economic interventionism is already in progress. Promising to reverse the decline of manufacturing through tariffs and other measures would have been political anathema twenty years ago, but it has become a core Republican plank. Florida Republicans' punitive measures towards Disney and the GOP's growing support for government action against Big Tech companies suggests openness towards not just using state power to guide the economy, but also to reshape the social landscape by manipulating the private sector. It may well be that the era of small government is over.
I've sorted some potential 'brands' and some of the people who might be nominated in 2028 / become party standard-bearers should the Democrats go in that direction. These lists aren't exhaustive; I'm just trying to establish a general vibe.
The 'Biden Blueprint': Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg, Gina Raimondo
These are members of the Biden admin who have been given great power (and great piles of money) to enact the legislation of the 117th. If American sentiment towards big government changes as quickly as I think it could, a Cabinet secretary could have a decent shot in 2028. Harris would be the natural successor as the VP, but Transportation Sec Buttigieg and Commerce Sec Raimondo, who were empowered to implement much of the Infrastructure Act and the CHIPS Act respectively, could become standard-bearers for this new vision of technocratic governance if they administer these programs well (and in a way that makes headlines). If Energy Sec Granholm were a natural-born citizen, she would definitely fit here as well, considering how much power the IRA gave her department.
The 'New New Deal': Amy Klobuchar, Catherine Cortez Masto, Mark Kelly, Tammy Duckworth, Raphael Warnock
Liberal senators who are capable of working across the aisle to achieve compromise could be a strong bet if Democrats want to recreate the success of the 117th Congress in the future. There's always an argument that effective legislators won't necessarily make for effective executives, but these choices would help with Democrats' goal of rebranding the Democratic party as the party you vote for if you want Washington to function properly and anticipate constituents' needs. Such a ticket could brand itself as the path to bipartisan yet assertive solutions on familiar and emerging issues like immigration reform, federal protection for abortion, the housing shortage, and the drug crisis.
The 'Bulwark': Roy Cooper, Laura Kelly, Andy Beshear
I'll admit that when I began writing this post, I had a more favorable opinion of the above three governors and politicians like them as presidential nominees and the potential 'future of the party.' I no longer feel as strongly about them, however, because I don't believe they do enough to change the brand of the Democrats and the political environment as a whole. These governors are best known for winning races in red states; for holding the line against the most conservative policies while finding areas of compromise, especially on kitchen-table issues.
But this brand of Democrat is fundamentally reactive, even defensive -- it assumes that most of the job will be obstructing right-wing legislation from a red legislature. In other words, it is a kind of strategy you use when you're trying to hold ground, not gain it. It works well when your opponent's brand is toxic (as the GOP's has been since 2016), but this I suspect this brand of 'competent normality' will struggle if the opposition ceases to actively repel voters. If Trump and his acolytes continue to hold a strong grip on the party through 2024 and beyond, this brand may not be a bad bet short-term, but long-term Democrats want to be the ones establishing the rules of the game, not just beating your opponent at theirs. That's what a successful political brand does. While Dems in similar situation should definitely look to these governors for guidance in running their campaigns (and hopefully, their administrations), I would caution at this point against basing the national party's brand on their model.
I think somewhere between these three groups lies a successful path forward for the Democrats that towards becoming the dominant party in U.S. politics at the federal level. There are some other interesting currents in the party; like how Democratic governors like Whitmer, Evers, and Walz have rebuilt D strength the Midwest after a rough 2010s, and how Western Dems like Jared Polis, Mary Peltola, and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez have found unexpected electoral stength by embracing a form of libertarianism. However, these currents may be regional, and Democrats shouldn't necessarily try to nationalize every idea that works in one part of the country. Creating different regional 'flavors' of Democrat would be necessary to keep the party relevant in all parts of the country.
Regarding the 2020 primary runners-up, I don't think most of the visions laid out then work post-2024, and for this reason I tend not to give too much weight to current Democratic primary polling, because it assumes these same people would be running again.
Assuming Biden ends his term without catastrophe, I don't think the party needs to place all their faith in a young, charismatic Obama wannabe like O'Rourke or Swalwell, nor does it need to drastically pivot to the center, nor does it need to proclaim itself the party of 'outsiders,' nor does it need to give the reins to the progressive wing. If everything goes right, they can remain ideologically where they are now (roughly) and establish a solid brand for the first time in a generation.
The Democrats been losing the branding war since the days of Nixon. They may currently have all the tools they need right now to change that, and set the expectations for the next fifty years of politics. Let's see how they do.
This is my first big write-up, so I almost certainly missed some stuff and made some assumptions. Let me know what you think.

Best Picture

1. Killers of the Flower Moon(WINNER)
   
2. The Color Purple
   
3. Past Lives
   
4. Oppenheimer
   
5. May December
   
6. Dune Part II
   
7. The Zone of Interest
   
8. The Holdovers
   
9. Saltburn
   
10. Air
    

Best Actor

1. Leonardo DiCaprio for Killers of the Flower Moon(WINNER)
   
2. Bradley Cooper for Maestro
   
3. Cillian Murphy for Oppenheimer
   
4. Barry Keoghan for Saltburn
   
5. Paul Giamatti for The Holdovers
   

Best Actress

1. Fantasia Barrino for The Color Purple(WINNER)
   
2. Natalie Portman for May December
   
3. Greta Lee for Past Lives
   
4. Carey Mulligan for Maestro
   
5. Jessica Lange for Long Day's Journey Into Night
   

Best Supporting Actor

1. Robert De Niro for Killers of the Flower Moon(WINNER)
   
2. Robert Downey Jr. for Oppenheimer
   
3. John Magaro for Past Lives
   
4. Colman Domingo for The Color Purple
   
5. Charles Melton for May December
   

Best Supporting Actress

1. Lily Gladstone for Killers of the Flower Moon(WINNER)
   
2. Taraji P. Henson for The Color Purple
   
3. Danielle Brooks for The Color Purple
   
4. Julianne Moore for May December
   
5. Viola Davis for Air
   

Best Director

1. Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer(WINNER)
   
2. Martin Scorcese for Killers of the Flower Moon
   
3. Jonathan Glazer for The Zone of Interest
   
4. Blitz Bazuwule for The Color Purple
   
5. Todd Haynes for May December
   

Best Original Screenplay

1. Celine Song for Past Lives(WINNER)
   
2. David Hemmingson for The Holdovers
   
3. Samy Burch for May December
   
4. Emerald Fennell for Saltburn
   
5. Alex Convery for Air
   

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Martin Scorcese and Eric Roth for Killers of the Flower Moon(WINNER)
   
2. Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer
   
3. Jonathan Glazer for The Zone of Interest
   
4. Denis Villenueve and Jon Spaihts for Dune Part II
   
5. Hayao Miyuzaki for How Do You Live?
   

Best Cinematography

1. Hoyte Van Hoytemma for Oppenheimer(WINNER)
   
2. Greig Fraser for Dune Part II
   
3. Rodrigo Prieto for Killers of the Flower Moon
   
4. Dan Lausten for The Color Purple
   
5. Lukasz Zal for The Zone of Interest
   

Best Film Editing

1. Jennifer Lame for Oppenheimer(WINNER)
   
2. Joe Walker for Dune Part II
   
3. Thelma Schoonmaker for Killers of the Flower Moon
   
4. Jon Poll for The Color Purple
   
5. Alfonso Goncalves for May December
   

Best Production Design

1. Dune Part II(WINNER)
   
2. Oppenheimer
   
3. The Color Purple
   
4. Saltburn
   
5. Barbie
   

Best Sound

1. Oppenheimer(WINNER)
   
2. Dune Part II
   
3. The Color Purple
   
4. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part I
   
5. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
   

Best Visual Effects

1. Dune Part II(WINNER)
   
2. Oppenheimer
   
3. Mission Impossible Dead Reckoning Part One
   
4. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
   
5. The Little Mermaid
   

Best Original Score

1. Hans Zimmer for Dune Part II(WINNER)
   
2. Ludwig Gorronson for Oppenheimer
   
3. Mica Levi for The Zone of Interest
   
4. Robbie Robertson for Killers of the Flower Moon
   
5. Christopher Bear and Daniel Rossen for Past Lives
   

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Maestro(WINNER)
   
2. Dune Part II
   
3. The Little Mermaid
   
4. Poor Things
   
5. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
   

Best Costume Design

1. Barbie(WINNER)
   
2. Saltburn
   
3. The Color Purple
   
4. Killers of the Flower Moon
   
5. Wonka
   

The Pirates have a good problem on their hands by holding the number one selection in the MLB draft this year, scheduled during the All-Star break. Their selection should come down to one of three elite college talents: LSU OF Dylan Crews, LSU RHP Paul Skenes, and Florida OF Wyatt Langford. Skenes is regarded as the best college pitcher since Stephen Strasburg. Crews and Langford would give the Pirates a high-floor outfield prospect with a superstar upside that they currently lack.
They need to select one of these three instead of the top prep bats in Walker Jenkins and Max Clark. They took an elite prep bat last year in Termarr Johnson, but with the #1 pick and elite college talents available, they need to select someone who can hopefully fly through the system in two years.
Look at their last two #1 overall picks: Henry Davis in 2021 (who is POUNDING on the door as we enter June 2023), and Gerrit Cole in 2011 (who made his major league debut in June 2013.) Someone who can give the team a big boost in 2025, knock on wood with correct development and the window of contention being open.
Dylan Crews 2023 stats: .420 average, 1.277 OPS, 15 HR, 59 RBI.
Wyatt Langford 2023 stats: .398 average, 1.344 OPS, 17 HR, 43 RBI.
Paul Skenes 2023 stats: 10-2, 1.89 ERA, 167 strikeouts with a measly 17 walks.
The Pirates hold selections 1, 42, 67, 73, 104, and 140 within the top 150 picks. Assuming they take one of Crews, Skenes, or Langford, I think they'd target primarily college players since all of those three will take the majority of their allotment. This is not the year to do the portfolio approach, I strongly believe that they need to take one of the elite talents available to them.
Some potential targets for the Pirates after pick 1:
at 42: RHP Tanner Witt (Texas), LHP Joe Whitman (Kent State), OF Colton Ledbetter (Mississippi State)
at 67 and 73: A number of prep outfielders, OF Ryan Lasko (Rutgers), LHP Hunter Owen (Vanderbilt)
at 104: C Michael Carico (Davidson), a surprise faller, or a guy like Michael Kennedy who they took last year
at 140: Ben Cherington Mystery Box
​
I'll post a poll that goes with this to gauge the preferred pick, but I'd like to hear your thoughts on what you'd like to see the Pirates do in the draft.

This month there are local elections in Texas, and we know the best way to win the state is to start with the smallest races!
 
Keep checking our volunteer from home spreadsheet! It’s been updated with opportunities to volunteer for important races! As always, important events are bolded, and it is being constantly updated
 
Donate to the Expand the Senate Fund to keep the Senate in 2024!
 
Take our survey so we can update you on volunteer opportunities near you!
   
 

Texas

 

Canvass

Dallas - Local Elections - Thursdays and Saturdays
Houston - Chris Hollins for City Controller - Saturdays
Killeen - Bell County Candidates - Various Dates
McKinney - Stacey Donald and Scott Coleman for Collin College Board - Saturday, June 3
Pasadena - Ignacia Garcia for City Council - Saturday, June 3, Sunday, June 4, and Saturday, June 10
 

Phone Bank from Home

Bell County Democrats - Weekdays
Chris Hollins for Houston City Controller - Sundays and Thursdays
Scott Coleman and Stacey Donald for Collin College Board of Trustees - Various Dates
 

Voter Registration Training from Home

Battleground Texas - Wednesday, June 7
 

Register Voters

Alamo - Saturday, June 3
Dallas - Friday, June 2
Dallas - Saturday, June 3
Dallas - Saturday, June 3
Dallas - Sunday, June 4
Denton - Friday, June 9
Denton - Friday, June 9
Denton - Sunday, June 11
Fort Worth - Saturday, June 3
Harlingen - Friday, June 2
Houston - Thursday, June 1
Houston - Thursday, June 1 and Friday, June 2
Houston - Thursday, June 15
McAllen - Saturday, June 3
McKinney - Saturday, June 10
Mission - Thursday, June 1
San Antonio - Saturday, June 3
San Antonio - Saturday, June 10
 

Volunteer at the Polls

Plano - Plano Area Democrats - Saturday, June 10
 

Write Postcards in Person

Austin - Texas Blue Action Democrats - Tuesday, June 13
Pasadena - Harris County Democrats - Thursdays
   
You can also find volunteer and donation links for the candidates in upcoming runoff and special elections listed below. Elections are sorted by date.
 

June 6th

 
Mike Johnston is running for mayor of Denver, Colorado. You can donate or volunteer. Visit his website, Facebook, Twitter, and Youtube.
 

June 13th

 
Wendy Pieh is running for Maine House of Representatives District 45. You can donate via the Maine Clean Election Act Service! Sign up to canvass! Visit her website, Facebook page, and Instagram!
 

August 3rd

 
Justin Jones is running for Tennessee House of Representatives District 52 after his unfair ouster! You can make a donation, visit his website, Twitter, and Instagram!
 
Lori Love is running for Tennessee House of Representatives District 3. Make a donation! Visit her Linked in, Facebook, or Twitter.
 

November 7th

 
Andy Beshear is running for re-election as Governor of Kentucky. Please donate if you can, or sign up to volunteer! Visit his website, Facebook page, Twitter feed, and Instagram.
 
Pamela Stevenson is running for Kentucky Attorney General. Please volunteer or donate! Take a look at her website, Facebook, and Twitter.
 
Charles “Buddy” Wheatley is running for Kentucky Secretary of State. You can donate or visit his website or Facebook page!
 
Michael Bowman is running for Kentucky Treasurer. Please donate if you are able, or become a volunteer! Check out his website, Facebook, Twitter, or Youtube.
 
Kimberley Reeder is running for Kentucky Auditor of Public Accounts. You can visit her website or donate.
 
Sierra Enlow is running for Kentucky Commissioner of Agriculture. Please donate, volunteer, or attend an event. Visit her website, Facebook, Linked In, and Twitter.
 
Daniel McCaffery is running for Pennsylvania Supreme Court. If you are able, please make a donation or become a volunteer. Take a look at his website, Facebook page, and Instagram.
 
Jill Beck is running for Pennsylvania Superior Court. Please donate to her campaign, or sign up to volunteer. Check out her website, Facebook page, Twitter, and Instagram.
 
Timika Lane is running for Pennsylvania Superior Court. Consider making a donation. Visit her website, Facebook page, and Instagram.
 
Matt Wolf is running for Pennsylvania Commonwealth Court. Check out his website!

Join VoteDEM, our permanent subreddit, to learn more!
This month there are local elections in Texas, and we know the best way to win the state is to start with the smallest races!
 
Keep checking our volunteer from home spreadsheet! It’s been updated with opportunities to volunteer for important races! As always, important events are bolded, and it is being constantly updated
 
Donate to the Expand the Senate Fund to keep the Senate in 2024!
 
Take our survey so we can update you on volunteer opportunities near you!
   
 

Texas

 

Canvass

Dallas - Local Elections - Thursdays and Saturdays
Houston - Chris Hollins for City Controller - Saturdays
Killeen - Bell County Candidates - Various Dates
McKinney - Stacey Donald and Scott Coleman for Collin College Board - Saturday, June 3
Pasadena - Ignacia Garcia for City Council - Saturday, June 3, Sunday, June 4, and Saturday, June 10
 

Phone Bank from Home

Bell County Democrats - Weekdays
Chris Hollins for Houston City Controller - Sundays and Thursdays
Scott Coleman and Stacey Donald for Collin College Board of Trustees - Various Dates
 

Voter Registration Training from Home

Battleground Texas - Wednesday, June 7
 

Register Voters

Alamo - Saturday, June 3
Dallas - Friday, June 2
Dallas - Saturday, June 3
Dallas - Saturday, June 3
Dallas - Sunday, June 4
Denton - Friday, June 9
Denton - Friday, June 9
Denton - Sunday, June 11
Fort Worth - Saturday, June 3
Harlingen - Friday, June 2
Houston - Thursday, June 1
Houston - Thursday, June 1 and Friday, June 2
Houston - Thursday, June 15
McAllen - Saturday, June 3
McKinney - Saturday, June 10
Mission - Thursday, June 1
San Antonio - Saturday, June 3
San Antonio - Saturday, June 10
 

Volunteer at the Polls

Plano - Plano Area Democrats - Saturday, June 10
 

Write Postcards in Person

Austin - Texas Blue Action Democrats - Tuesday, June 13
Pasadena - Harris County Democrats - Thursdays
   
You can also find volunteer and donation links for the candidates in upcoming runoff and special elections listed below. Elections are sorted by date.
 

June 6th

 
Mike Johnston is running for mayor of Denver, Colorado. You can donate or volunteer. Visit his website, Facebook, Twitter, and Youtube.
 

June 13th

 
Wendy Pieh is running for Maine House of Representatives District 45. You can donate via the Maine Clean Election Act Service! Sign up to canvass! Visit her website, Facebook page, and Instagram!
 

August 3rd

 
Justin Jones is running for Tennessee House of Representatives District 52 after his unfair ouster! You can make a donation, visit his website, Twitter, and Instagram!
 
Lori Love is running for Tennessee House of Representatives District 3. Make a donation! Visit her Linked in, Facebook, or Twitter.
 

November 7th

 
Andy Beshear is running for re-election as Governor of Kentucky. Please donate if you can, or sign up to volunteer! Visit his website, Facebook page, Twitter feed, and Instagram.
 
Pamela Stevenson is running for Kentucky Attorney General. Please volunteer or donate! Take a look at her website, Facebook, and Twitter.
 
Charles “Buddy” Wheatley is running for Kentucky Secretary of State. You can donate or visit his website or Facebook page!
 
Michael Bowman is running for Kentucky Treasurer. Please donate if you are able, or become a volunteer! Check out his website, Facebook, Twitter, or Youtube.
 
Kimberley Reeder is running for Kentucky Auditor of Public Accounts. You can visit her website or donate.
 
Sierra Enlow is running for Kentucky Commissioner of Agriculture. Please donate, volunteer, or attend an event. Visit her website, Facebook, Linked In, and Twitter.
 
Daniel McCaffery is running for Pennsylvania Supreme Court. If you are able, please make a donation or become a volunteer. Take a look at his website, Facebook page, and Instagram.
 
Jill Beck is running for Pennsylvania Superior Court. Please donate to her campaign, or sign up to volunteer. Check out her website, Facebook page, Twitter, and Instagram.
 
Timika Lane is running for Pennsylvania Superior Court. Consider making a donation. Visit her website, Facebook page, and Instagram.
 
Matt Wolf is running for Pennsylvania Commonwealth Court. Check out his website!

This is simply, roughly, my preference of who I would want in the team based on those available at that number.
Many players had more than one number, so I put them in the one they appeared in most, or were most recognisable in (for instance, JG had 3 seasons as 40 or something and 3 as 7). Also, this is based on their time at the club, not their overall career.
And this is my vague opinion, don't get mad.

1. James, Martinez, Friedel, Bosnich, Johnstone, Spink, Sorensen, Guzan, Schmeichel, Heaton, Gollini, Enckelman. Given, Nyland,
   
2. Cash, Delaney, Charles, Watson, Cox, Barratt, Hutton, L. Young, Kubicki, Baker, De Laet, Ilori
   
3. A. Wright, Staunton, Targett, Diego Carlos (?), Bouma, Warnock, N. Taylor, Samuel, Bennett, Small, Lichaj
   
4. Southgate, Mellberg, Vlaar, Teale, Tuanzebe, Cox, Senderos, Sidwell, Richards, Samba, Drinkwater
   
5. McGrath, Mings, Laursen, Ehiogu, Chester, Dunne, Alpay. Okore, Lansbury
   
6. Barry, Downing, Luiz, Townsend, Richardson, Boateng, Whelan, Watson, Elphick, Collins, Clark, Tiler,
   
7. A. Young, Taylor McGinn, Daley, Houghton, Parker, Cowans, Snodgrass, Bacuna, Ireland,
   
8. Milner, Platt, Draper, Gueye, Fashanu, Lansbury, Pires, Jenas, McCann, El Ahmadi, Sanson, Cleverley, Tshibola, Carroll,
   
9. Angel, Bent, Dublin, Saunders, Ings, Milosevic, Sinclair, Collymore, Harewood, Hogan, Wesley, Helenius,
   
10. Grealish, Merson, Carew, Buendia, Atkinson, T. Johnson, Baros, Ayew, N'Zogbia
    
11. Watkins, Solano, Agbonlahor, Daley, Froggatt, A. Thompson, Bolasie, Beinlich,
    
12. Albrighton, Hitzelsperger, Joachim, S. Davis, Steer, J. Cole, Enckelman, Lamptey,
    
13. Oakes, Cutler, S. Taylor, Postma, Myhill, Bradley
    
14. Hourihane, Ginola, Carr, Luna, Allback, Delfounso, Djemba Djemba, Gestede, Holman, Fenton, Tarrant,
    
15. Moreno, Konsa, Traore, Jedinak, Westwood, de la Cruz, King, C. Davies, Nelson, Boden,
    
16. Delph, Crouch, Bree, Chambers, Knight, Grayson, Berson, Lescott,
    
17. Trezeguet, Hendrie. P. Whittingham, Veretout, Augustinsson, Makoun, Salifou,
    
18. Yorke, A. Young, Targett, Abraham, Stone, Carbone, A. Hughes, Heskey, Routledge, Farrelly, Curcic, Onomah, K. Richardson, C. Cole, Kozak, Sylla, Ferraresi,
    
19. Petrov, Nakamba, Ridgewell, Green, R. Walker, Balaban, D. Hughes, Baston
    
20. Benteke, Nilis, Bednarek, R. Keane, K. Phillips, Hadji, Scimeca, Reo-Coker, A.Traore, Bjarnason, Barkley, Ghrayib, Sutton, Samatta, Breikrutz, Drobny,
    
21. Cahill, El Ghazi, Hutton, Clark, Shorey, Bowery, Byfield, Farrell
    
22. Vassell, Kodjia, Carson, Guzan, Engels, Dhuran, Kachloul, Whittingham, L. Moore, G. Gardner, L. Collins
    
23. Amavi, Coutinho, Bertrand, Jota, Beye, Berger, S. Moore, Cissokho, Boulding, Andre Moreira, N. davis
    
24. Cuellar, Elphick, Guilbert, Bardlsey, Bakke, Carlos Sanchez, Tonev, s. Murray, Dawkins,
    
25. Bannan, Gil, De BIlde, Bewers, Bartelt, A. Lee, Rachel, Olsen,
    
26. Terry, Weimann, C. Gardner, M. Kinsella, L. Kinsella,
    
27. Digne, Elmo, R. Johnsen, Stevens, Kozak, Osbourne, Tshibola, Standing
    
28. Kalinic, Maloney, Leonhardsen, Hogg, Jacszun, S. Williams,
    
29. Kesler-Hayden, Reina, J. Collins, Hepburn-Murphy, Holt, Ghent, O'Halloran
    
30. Hause, R. Edwards, Abdo
    
31. Bailey, Agathe, Bunn, Herd, S. Cooke,
    
32. Dendoncker, Philogene, Doyle-Hayes, A. Lescott, Donacien
    
33. Chukwuemeka, Sarkic, A. Marshall, Jose Crespo,
    
34. Lowton, Calderwood, Suliman, Lowry
    
35. Archer, D. Johsnon, Blackett-Taylor, M. CLark,
    
36. K. walker, Vassilev, Bogarde, O'Hare, Burke, McKirdy, Sellars
    
37. Adomah, C. Robinson, M. Bridge, D. Williams
    
38. Sinisalo, Lyden, J. McGrath
    
39. W. Henderson, K. Davis, Olejnik, Revan, Calder
    
40. A. Ramsay, Carruthers, Cox
    
41. J. Ramsay, B. Watkins
    
42. Marschall, Borg, Mason
    
44. Kamara, McCormack
    
45. Grabban, Chrisene, Lowry, Tait
    
46. Toner, Ca. Chukwuemeka, J. walker
    
47. Iroegbunam, Rowe
    
48. Zwych
    
49. Lindley
    
50. Swinkels, Sohna
    
51. Onodi
    

52-55.-

1. S. Revan
   
3. T. O'Reilly
   
4. Feeney
   
6. L. Barry
   

62-63. -

1. J. Wright
   
3. T. Patterson
   
4. Raikhy
   
5. B. Young
   
6. M. Sylla
   

70-71. -

1. K. Young
   
2. T. Rowe
   
3. F. Ealing
   
5. T. Jay-Hart
   

I didn't see any info here on the current runoffs, so just posting a reminder. Early Voting starts today. Looks like it's for Collin College Trustee, Places 2 and 3.
Sample ballots, polling locations and schedule are here on Collin County's site:
https://www.collincountytx.gov/elections/election_information/Pages/default.aspx
Just FYI, voting in more than just general elections (potentially) gives your voice more weight if you ever need to contact your representative(s).

Hey everyone,
Over the last 5 days I've gone from each teams subreddit when they would be up to pick in the draft and poll that team on who they would pick with the those who are available. Had some pretty interesting picks that I wasn't expecting and I hope you all enjoy the results.
A couple of disclaimers

1. These are not my selections but are the results of the vote from the subreddit.
2. I can not facilitate a trade here so saying "we would trade this pick" meant nothing in this exercise...
3. Hornets subreddit immediately locked both of my attempts at pick 2 and pick 27. I attempted to contact the subreddits mods but received no response after 2 hours of waiting each time. So the pick defaulted to BPA for 2nd and 27th was kind of just a guess. Sorry if you disagree but best I could do, get more responsive mods.
4. Raptors pick was made as BPA since there were no replies after 2 hours. (unsure if there were issues since I could find the post in their subreddit but it had no views)
5. Heat post was locked after 10 minutes and again I received no response back from mods as to why or unlocking it. Only 6 votes had been cast at that time. I still took the leader but it was only by 1 vote at that time.
6. Voting time frame was a bit shorter early on than what I wish it could have been, but even with 1 hr for the first 20 it took 3 days to get through and I didn't want to take 2 weeks on it. (only 1 pick would have changed if the voting process had gone out past 12 hours and that would have been Utah taking Keonte George at 16).

*** Thats it before the results, sorry for the novel before hand, but I felt there were some clarifications I needed to make before posting.

1. Spurs- Wemby
2. Hornets - Scoot
3. Trailblazers- Miller
4. Rockets - Amen Thompson
5. Pistons- Ausar Thompson (in an extremely close vote).
6. Magic - Taylor Hendricks
7. Pacers - Jarace Walker
8. Wizard - Cam Whitmore
9. Jazz - Anthony Black
10. Mavericks - Gradey Dick (Super close and I actually had to extend the timer due to a tie multiple times.
11. Magic -Jordan Hawkins
12. OKC - Leonard Miller
13. Raptors - Cason Wallace (had zero replies after 2 hours and so they defaulted to BPA)
14. Pelicans - GG Jackson
15. Atlanta - Dereck Lively II
16. Jazz - Jalen Hood-Schifino
17. Lakers - Kobe Bufkin
18. Heat - Dariq White head
19. Warriors - Bilal Coulibali
20. Rockets - Nick Smith Jr.
21. Nets - Keyonta George
22. Nets - Brice Sensabaugh
23. Trailblazers - James Nnaji
24. Kings - Kris Murray
25. Grizzlies - Trayce Jackson-Davis
26. Pacers - Jett Howard
27. Hornets - Sidy Cissoko
28. Jazz - Rayan Rupert
29. Pacers - Bobi Klintman
30. Clippers - Brandin Podziemski

Hey Team,
I'm putting together a mock draft from the NBA subreddits through a poll, assuming no trades. I will be going to each teams reddit to put a poll so they can vote on their pick while removing players that have already been picked. There will be 2 hr per pick and then I will move onto the next subreddit while updating my draft board. If your preferred pick is not in the poll PLEASE USE OTHER AND COMMENT BELOW ON WHO YOU WOULD PREFER.
​

1. Spurs- Wemby
2. Hornets - Scoot (Charlottes pick was BPA on athletics list due to mods closing the poll because they hate fun)
3. Trailblazers- Miller
4. Rockets - Amen Thompson
5. Pistons- Ausar Thompson (in an extremely close vote).
6. Magic - Taylor Hendricks
7. Pacers - Jarace Walker
8. Wizard - Cam Whitmore
9. Jazz - Anthony Black
10. Mavericks - Gradey Dick (Super close and I actually had to extend the timer due to a tie multiple times.
11. Magic -Jordan Hawkins
12. OKC - Leonard Miller
13. Raptors - Cason Wallace (had zero replies after 2 hours and so they defaulted to BPA)
14. Pelicans - GG Jackson
15. Atlanta - Dereck Lively II
16. Jazz - Jalen Hood-Schifino
17. Lakers - Kobe Bufkin
18. Heat - Dariq White head ( mods removed the post after 10 minutes so had to go with highest votes at that time. Sorry heat fans if you don't like it, get better mods.
19. Warriors - Bilal Coulibali
20. Rockets - Nick Smith Jr.
21. Nets - Keyonta George
22. Nets - Brice Sensabaugh
23. Trailblazers - James Nnaji
24. Kings - Kris Murray
25. Grizzlies - Trayce Jackson-Davis
26. Pacers - Jett Howard
27. Hornets - Sidy Cissoko (Charlottes pick was BPA on athletics list due to mods closing the poll and getting no response back after 2 hours of attempts to get them to allow the post.)
28. Jazz - Rayan Rupert
29. Pacers - Bobi Klintman

Who do you guys vote for at 30th with what's left?
​
**** Thanks for everyone who participated. With the final count being brandin podziemski at 28 votes and Max Lewis in 2nd with 20 votes.
View Poll

Hey Team,
I'm back for your 3rd and final pick for this draft, quick overview before we start. Also, keep in mind that you may be swithing from Sidy Cissoko to Jett Howard (looking at the vote it seems like ti will go that way with 18 for Jett and 9 for Sidy)
I'm putting together a mock draft from the NBA subreddits through a poll, assuming no trades. I will be going to each teams reddit to put a poll so they can vote on their pick while removing players that have already been picked. There will be 2 hr per pick and then I will move onto the next subreddit while updating my draft board. If your preferred pick is not in the poll PLEASE USE OTHER AND COMMENT BELOW ON WHO YOU WOULD PREFER.

1. Spurs- Wemby
2. Hornets - Scoot (Charlottes pick was BPA on athletics list due to mods closing the poll because they hate fun)
3. Trailblazers- Miller
4. Rockets - Amen Thompson
5. Pistons- Ausar Thompson (in an extremely close vote).
6. Magic - Taylor Hendricks
7. Pacers - Jarace Walker
8. Wizard - Cam Whitmore
9. Jazz - Anthony Black
10. Mavericks - Gradey Dick (Super close and I actually had to extend the timer due to a tie multiple times.
11. Magic -Jordan Hawkins
12. OKC - Leonard Miller
13. Raptors - Cason Wallace (had zero replies after 2 hours and so they defaulted to BPA)
14. Pelicans - GG Jackson
15. Atlanta - Dereck Lively II
16. Jazz - Jalen Hood-Schifino
17. Lakers - Kobe Bufkin
18. Heat - Dariq White head ( mods removed the post after 10 minutes so had to go with highest votes at that time. Sorry heat fans if you don't like it, get better mods.
19. Warriors - Bilal Coulibali
20. Rockets - Nick Smith Jr.
21. Nets - Keyonta George
22. Nets - Brice Sensabaugh
23. Trailblazers - James Nnaji
24. Kings - Kris Murray
25. Grizzlies - Trayce Jackson-Davis
26. Pacers - Jett Howard
27. Hornets - Sidy Cissoko (Charlottes pick was BPA on athletics list due to mods closing the poll and getting no response back after 2 hours off attempts to get them to allow the post.)
28. Jazz - Rayan Rupert

Who do you guys vote for at 29 with with whats left?
View Poll

Hey all,
There have been a lot of comments from individuals who were unaware that Jett Howard was still available in the mock draft selection who said they would have voted for him if they had realized he had not yet been picked. although I did post the draft results in the previous post i do want to be as upfront and fair as I can. Jett Howard did go to Charlotte with the next pick but that was due to their mods immediately locking the post again and so I defaulted him to their roster feeling that would have been the best pick.
I'll open up another poll so you can vote between Cissoko and Jett only since it would be one or the other and the Jazz subreddit is already 3 hours in on voting and don't want to impact their players available. I'll let it go for a few hours and make the changes if necessary. Please be aware that you did take Jarace Walker with your 7th so I'm not sure if that will impact your pick here or not but wanted to make sure you had all the details.
View Poll

Hey Team,
I'm back for our 28th pick, I'm back for our 3rd and final pick for this draft, quick overview before we start.
I'm putting together a mock draft from the NBA subreddits through a poll, assuming no trades. I will be going to each teams reddit to put a poll so they can vote on their pick while removing players that have already been picked. There will be 2 hr per pick and then I will move onto the next subreddit while updating my draft board. If your preferred pick is not in the poll PLEASE USE OTHER AND COMMENT BELOW ON WHO YOU WOULD PREFER.

1. Spurs- Wemby
2. Hornets - Scoot (Charlottes pick was BPA on athletics list due to mods closing the poll because they hate fun)
3. Trailblazers- Miller
4. Rockets - Amen Thompson
5. Pistons- Ausar Thompson (in an extremely close vote).
6. Magic - Taylor Hendricks
7. Pacers - Jarace Walker
8. Wizard - Cam Whitmore
9. Jazz - Anthony Black
10. Mavericks - Gradey Dick (Super close and I actually had to extend the timer due to a tie multiple times.
11. Magic -Jordan Hawkins
12. OKC - Leonard Miller
13. Raptors - Cason Wallace (had zero replies after 2 hours and so they defaulted to BPA)
14. Pelicans - GG Jackson
15. Atlanta - Dereck Lively II
16. Jazz - Jalen Hood-Schifino
17. Lakers - Kobe Bufkin
18. Heat - Dariq White head ( mods removed the post after 10 minutes so had to go with highest votes at that time. Sorry heat fans if you don't like it, get better mods.
19. Warriors - Bilal Coulibali
20. Rockets - Nick Smith Jr.
21. Nets - Keyonta George
22. Nets - Brice Sensabaugh
23. Trailblazers - James Nnaji
24. Kings - Kris Murray
25. Grizzlies - Trayce Jackson-Davis
26. Pacers - Sidy Cissoko
27. Hornets - Jett Howard (Charlottes pick was BPA on athletics list due to mods closing the poll and getting no response back after 2 hours off attempts to get them to allow the post.)
28. ​

Who do you guys vote for at 28 with with whats left?
​
***** Rayan Rupert looks like the pick with 25 votes to Noah Clowney's 20
View Poll

Hey Pacers,
I'm back for your 23rd pick and want to thank everyone again who participated for your 7th pick. Gonna paste the rules below for those who may not have seen the first post.
I'm putting together a mock draft from the NBA subreddits through a poll, assuming no trades. I will be going to each teams reddit to put a poll so they can vote on their pick while removing players that have already been picked. There will be 2 hr per pick and then I will move onto the next subreddit while updating my draft board. If your preferred pick is not in the poll PLEASE USE OTHER AND COMMENT BELOW ON WHO YOU WOULD PREFER.

1. Spurs- Wemby
2. Hornets - Scoot (Charlottes pick was BPA on athletics list due to mods closing the poll since they hate fun)
3. Trailblazers- Miller
4. Rockets - Amen Thompson
5. Pistons- Ausar Thompson (in an extremely close vote).
6. Magic - Taylor Hendricks
7. Pacers - Jarace Walker
8. Wizard - Cam Whitmore
9. Jazz - Anthony Black
10. Mavericks - Gradey Dick (Super close and I actually had to extend the timer due to a tie multiple times.
11. Magic -Jordan Hawkins
12. OKC - Leonard Miller
13. Raptors - Cason Wallace (had zero replies after 2 hours and so they defaulted to BPA)
14. Pelicans - GG Jackson
15. Atlanta - Dereck Lively II
16. Jazz - Jalen Hood-Schifino
17. Lakers - Kobe Bufkin
18. Heat - Dariq White head ( mods removed the post after 10 minutes so had to go with highest votes at that time. Sorry heat fans if you don't like it, get better mods.
19. Warriors - Bilal Coulibali
20. Rockets - Nick Smith Jr.
21. Nets - Keyonta George
22. Nets - Brice Sensabaugh
23. Trailblazers - James Nnaji
24. Kings - Kris Murray
25. Grizzlies - Trayce Jackson-Davis

Who do you take at 26?
​
**** with the 26th pick Pacers have selected Jett Howard.* Pretty big landslide for him in the other poll I put up to give you a chance to revote.
View Poll

Picture

1. The Color Purple, Warner Bros. Pictures
2. Saltburn, Amazon Studios and Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer
3. Dune: Part Two, Warner Bros. Pictures
4. Killers of the Flower Moon, Apple TV+ and Paramount Pictures
5. May/December, Netflix
6. Oppenheimer, Universal Pictures
7. Past Lives, A24
8. La Chimera, NEON
9. Anatomy of a Fall, NEON
10. The Zone of Interest, A24
11. The Supremes at Earl's All You Can Eat, Searchlight
12. Asteroid City, Focus Features
13. Firebrand, STX Films
14. The Bikeriders, 20th Century Studios
15. Problemista, A24

Major Winners:

1. Anatomy of a Fall (Palme d'Or - Cannes)
2. The Zone of Interest (Grand Prix - Cannes)
3. Fallen Leaves (Jury Prize - Cannes)
4. How to Have Sex (Un Certain Regard - Cannes)
5. Inside the Yellow Cocoon Shell (Caméra d'Or - Cannes)
6. A Thousand and One (Sundance U.S.)
7. Scrapper (Sundance World)

Director

1. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
2. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn
3. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
4. Todd Haynes, May/December
5. Alice Rohrwacher, La Chimera
6. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
7. Denis Villenueve, Dune: Part Two
8. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall
9. Karim Aïnouz, Firebrand
10. Wes Anderson, Asteroid City

Major Winners:

1. Tran Anh Hung, The Pot-au-Feu (Cannes)

Actor

1. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Bradley Cooper, Maestro
4. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
5. Josh O'Connor, La Chimera
6. Paul Mescal, Foe
7. Gael García Bernal, Cassandro
8. Julio Torres, Problemista
9. Matt Damon, Air
10. Harris Dickinson, Scrapper

Major Winners:

1. Kōji Yakusho, Perfect Days

Actress

1. Fantasia, The Color Purple
2. Uzo Aduba, The Supremes at Earl's All-You-Can-Eat
3. Natalie Portman, May/December
4. Greta Lee, Past Lives
5. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
6. Alicia Vikander, Firebrand
7. Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One
8. Jessica Lange, Long Day's Journey Into Night
9. Zendaya, Challengers
10. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest

Major Winners:

1. Merve Dizdar, About Dry Grasses (Cannes)

Supporting Actor

1. Richard E. Grant, Saltburn
2. Robert DeNiro, Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Jude Law, Firebrand
4. Charles Melton, May/December
5. Jacob Elordi, Saltburn
6. Ryan Gosling, Barbie
7. Austin Butler, The Bikeriders
8. John Magaro, Past Lives
9. Tom Hardy, The Bikeriders
10. Teo Yoo, Past Lives

Supporting Actress

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
2. Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple
3. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
4. Julianne Moore, May/December
5. Aunjanue Ellis, The Supremes at Earl's All-You-Can-Eat
6. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn
7. Isabella Rossellini, La Chimera
8. Tantoo Cardinal, Killers of the Flower Moon
9. Carey Mulligan, Maestro
10. Tilda Swinton, Problemista

Original Screenplay

1. Emerald Fennell, Saltburn
2. Greta Lee, Past Lives
3. Julio Torres, Problemista
4. Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola, Asteroid City
5. Alice Rohrwacher, La Chimera
6. Justine Triet and Arthur Harari, Anatomy of a Fall
7. A.V. Rockwell, A Thousand and One
8. Justine Triet and Arthur Harari, Anatomy of a Fall
9. Alex Convery, Air
10. David Teague and Roger Ross Williams, Cassandro

Major Winners:

1. Maryam Keshavarz, The Persian Version (Sundance Jury)
2. Yuji Sakamoto, Monster (Cannes)

Adapted Screenplay

1. Marcus Gardley and Marsha Norman, The Color Purple
2. Eric Roth and Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
4. Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve, and Eric Roth, Dune: Part Two
5. Jessica Ashworth and Henrietta Ashworth, Firebrand
6. Jeff Nichols, The Bikeriders
7. Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach, Barbie
8. Tony McNamara, Poor Things
9. Sofia Coppola, Priscilla
10. Tina Mabry and Gina Prince-Bythewood, The Supremes at Earl's All-You-Can-Eat

------
Animated Feature

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Sony Pictures Releasing
2. Wish, Walt Disney Studios
3. How Do You Live?, Toho and GKIDS
4. Elemental, Walt Disney Studios
5. Robot Dreams, Neon
6. The Peasants, New Europe Film Sales
7. They Shot the Piano Player, Sony Pictures Classics
8. The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Universal Pictures and Illumination
9. The Magician's Elephant, Netflix
10. Spellbound, Apple TV+

Notes: I've heard many extreme reactions to Elemental, and I'm interested to see which ones take hold. I do think this will sell well, at the very least, and will be probably the second best selling nominee stateside.
Documentary

1. 20 Days in Mariupol
2. They Shot the Piano Player
3. Beyond Utopia
4. Four Daughters
5. The Mother of All Lies
6. Stamped from the Beginning
7. The Eternal Memory
8. Little Richard: I Am Everything
9. Orwell
10. The Echo

Major Winners:

1. Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project(Sundance U.S.)
2. The Eternal Memory (Sundance World)
3. Four Daughters (Cannes L'Œil d'or)
4. The Mother of All Lies (Cannes L'Œil d'or)

Notes:
Upon the discovery that Four Daughters and The Mother of All Lies count as documentaries and that they are two of the only films on the board so far, they both shot straight up the list into the top 5. Occupied City fell all the way off the list because a 4 hour movie about a very bleak subject needed a stronger reception than 64% to get anyone to watch it, even with Steve McQueen attached.
International Feature

1. Zone of Interest, Poland/UK
2. Monster, Japan
3. The Pot-au-Feu, France
4. Elegies, Hong Kong
5. Fallen Leaves, Finland
6. Four Daughters, Tunisia
7. El Conde, Argentina
8. About Dry Grasses, Turkey
9. The Mother of All Lies, Morocco
10. Mama Wati, Nigeria
11. Perfect Days, Germany
12. Youth, China
13. Creatura, Spain

Notes: Luckily, I didn't have to change many of my international films outside of the surprising English-forward Anatomy of a Fall from France, which gives a chance for The Pot-au-Feu to compete instead. Otherwise, the only new entry on the top 10 is actually a Sundance film from Nigeria, Mami Wata.
------
Costume Design

1. Jacqueline Durran, Barbie
2. Michael O'Connor, Firebrand
3. Sophie Canale, Saltburn
4. Francine Jamison-Tanchuck, The Color Purple
5. Jacqueline West, Dune: Part Two
6. Jacqueline West, Killers of the Flower Moon
7. Holly Waddington, Poor Things
8. Anna B. Sheppard, Untitled Bob Marley Biopic
9. Stacey Battat, Priscilla
10. Mariestela Fernández, Cassandro

Cinematography

1. Dan Lausten, The Color Purple
2. Rodrigo Prieto, Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Linus Sandgren, Saltburn
4. Hoyte Van Hoytema, Oppenheimer
5. Robert Yeoman, Asteroid City
6. Grieg Fraser, Dune Part: Two
7. Hélène Louvart, La Chimera
8. Philippe Le Sourd, Priscilla
9. Robbie Ryan, Poor Things
10. Hélène Louvart, Firebrand

Major Winners:

1. Lílias Soares, Mami Wata (Sundance Jury)

Editing

1. John Poll, The Color Purple
2. Joe Walker, Dune: Part Two
3. Affonso Gonçalves, May/December
4. Thelma Schoonmaker, Killers of the Flower Moon
5. Victoria Boydell, Saltburn
6. Julie Monroe, The Bikeriders
7. Keith Fraase, Past Lives
8. Barney Pilling, Asteroid City
9. Paul Watts, The Zone of Interest
10. Michelle Tesoro, Maestro

Hair and Make-Up

1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Maestro
4. Saltburn
5. Firebrand
6. Dune: Part Two
7. The Color Purple
8. Priscilla
9. Cassandro
10. Oppenheimer

Production Design

1. Paul D. Austerberry and Larry Dias, The Color Purple
2. Suzie Davies and Charlotte Dirickx, Saltburn
3. Patrice Vermette and Shane Vieau, Dune: Part Two
4. Sarah Greenwood and Katie Spencer, Barbie
5. Adam Stockhausen and Kris Moran, Asteroid City
6. Helen Scott and Hannah Spice, Firebrand
7. Jack Fisk and Adam Willis, Killers of the Flower Moon
8. Yong Ok Lee and Nancy Haigh, Drive-Away Dolls
9. Helen Scott and Pilar Foy, Firebrand
10. Tamara Deverell, Priscilla

Sound

1. The Color Purple
2. Dune: Part Two
3. The Supreme's at Earl's All-You-Can-Eat
4. The Zone of Interest
5. The Bikeriders
6. Oppenheimer
7. Maestro
8. The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes
9. Priscilla
10. Rebel Moon

Major Winners:

1. The Zone of Interest (CST Artist-Technician Award)

Score

1. Hans Zimmer, Dune: Part Two
2. Ludwig Göransson, Oppenheimer
3. Alexandre Desplat, Asteroid City
4. Mica Levi, The Zone of Interest
5. James Newton Howard, The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes
6. Thomas Newton, Elemental
7. Kathryn Bostic, The Supremes at Earl's All-You-Can-Eat
8. Marcelo Zarvos, May/December
9. Carter Burwell, Drive-Away Dolls
10. Alan Menken, Spellbound

Major Winners:

1. Mica Levi, The Zone of Interest (Cannes Soundtrack Award)

Song

1. "Dance the Night" by Dua Lipa, from Barbie
2. "Found" by Nicky Youre, The Magician's Elephant (Diane Warren)
3. "Gonna Be You" by Dolly Parton, Belinda Carlisle, Cyndi Lauper, Gloria Estefan and Debbie Harry, 80 For Brady (Diane Warren)
4. "Wild Uncharted Waters" by Jonah Hauer-King, from The Little Mermaid
5. "Eye for an Eye" by Rina Sawayama, from John Wick: Chapter 4
6. TBD by TBD, from Wish
7. TBD by TBD, from The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes
8. TBD by TBD, from Untitled Diane Warren Documentary
9. "For the First Time" by Halle, from The Little Mermaid
10. "Peaches" by Jack Black, from The Super Mario Bros Movie
11. TBD by TBD, from Flora and Son

Visual Effects

1. Dune: Part Two
2. Oppenheimer
3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
4. The Flash
5. The Marvels
6. Rebel Moon
7. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom
8. Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves
9. Barbie
10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse