Channelfireball

Everything KnightFall

2016.01.23 04:36 Legoman1357 Everything KnightFall

Anything and everything about the magic deck Knightfall (AKA Brave Sir Robinson)
[link]

2008.10.03 17:04 Magic: The Redditing

A diverse community of players devoted to Magic: the Gathering, a trading card game ("TCG") produced by Wizards of the Coast and originally designed by Richard Garfield. Join us discussing news, tournaments, gameplay, deckbuilding, strategy, lore, fan art, and more.
[link]

2020.10.27 01:03 Flesh & Blood TCG

Welcome! /FleshAndBloodTCG is for discussing Flesh & Blood, a new trading card game created for gamers, by gamers. The game rewards good decisions, not good luck. It’s highly interactive, with action beginning from the very first turn. New players, game veterans, collectors, and observers are all encouraged to join and participate!
[link]

2023.06.02 18:50 awshucksss Would you grade these? Found my old binder.

Would you grade these? Found my old binder.
Don’t freak out - the Jordan is tops archives version. They all look to be in great shape. God knows why I only sleeved my sports cards and not my Pokémon. Would you grade all or some of these or not worth it?
submitted by awshucksss to basketballcards [link] [comments]

2023.06.02 09:58 lmaofishi Mathematical or Game Theory approach to EDH?

Hey folks, recently I stumbled across this really interesting article:
https://strategy.channelfireball.com/home/whats-an-optimal-mana-curve-and-land-ramp-count-for-commande
It tries to answer what the best mana curve looks like depending on your Commanders Cmc and also what amount of ramp you should run, to play on curve. I found that very interesting, since not playing on curve could be considered as „loosing mana“.
I’ve wondered whether you guys know other cool articles that look at EDH from a mathematical/game theory point of view?
What others „neutral“ parameters do you know of, that could be tried to optimize? I’m speaking of categories like categories like card draw, removal etc
That’s all :)
submitted by lmaofishi to EDH [link] [comments]

2023.05.30 17:19 Fat_Guy_IT Tuesday Content Creator Roundup! Check for links here and post your own as well!

Tuesday Content Creator Roundup! Back on actual Tuesday! Check for links here and post your own as well!
Tuesday Content Creator Roundup Post Videos, Blog Posts, Resources, & Podcasts Here!
Welcome to the Tuesday content creator roundup!
This thread will feature some noteworthy contributions from Flesh & Blood content creators. Lots of gameplay, box openings, discussions etc. Catch up on content by reviewing the links below!
Videos
Blogposts & Other Resource
Podcasts
We know this can never be an exhaustive list and many of the creators listed above put out more than one video just this week so feel free to peruse and view past content as well. This was another long one with returning favorites and some new entries on the list.
Did I miss some great FaB content from last week? Share links and details in the comments below!
submitted by Fat_Guy_IT to FleshandBloodTCG [link] [comments]

2023.05.28 00:09 Yodaman1212 The time is now to check out this amazing format!

If you haven't heard about $30 Budget Vintage yet, now is the time to get it going! Even Channel Fireball is getting in on it!It's the most fun I personally have had playing magic ever and is easily the best way to be playing 1v1 magic right now. Check out the CFB article here for some format history, deck breakdowns, and much more! Hope to see you in our discord or in our subreddit over at BudgetVintageHappy Brewing!
submitted by Yodaman1212 to magicTCG [link] [comments]

2023.05.18 19:49 PikachuOfme_irl A different ban system for the modern format

I was reflecting on Wizards' ban system, prompted by a comparison to virtual TCG-style games (Legends of Runeterra, Hearthstone and even MTG Arena), which have some form of "de-buffing" instead of what I'll refer to as hard-banning.
To contextualize for all in this community who have no familiarity with such virtual TCGs, WotC has used this system to "rebalance" Teferi, Time Raveler – a somewhat problematic card in modern that, although I personally think is absolutely fine within the format, has prompted quite a few ban requests. This has got me wondering how the banning system could appeal to paper magic's strengths the same way "rebalancing" appeals to Arena's. And I think I've found a good way out, appealing to what is perhaps MTG's greatest triumph over all other TCGs – deckbuilding.
First, I'd like to clarify that these ideas are primarilly only meant to be applied to modern – a format I know sufficiently well to realize what's wrong with it (not to mention that other formats have restriction systems which are, IMO, a decent departure from hard-bans).
Now, what I would like to propose are deckbuilding restrictions instead of hard-bans for some banned cards. This would allow some cards to still be used by decks that would use them "fairly" while only those specific decks that would abuse synergies provided by such cards would not have access to them. For example, Faithless Looting is a big problem in dredge decks, as it allows players to both fill up their graveyards – the problematic synergy which dredge used to abuse before Looting got banned – and access card selection, but it would be perfectly fine in Jund Midrange lists, which are currently a Tier-2 deck and could use cards such as Looting to become more viable options.
This could help diversify a format which has 3 decks (Creativity, Murktide and Scam) making up a whole 1/3 of it: instead of how it's currently done, what we'd have in place would be format-specific deckbuilding restrictions, just like the Companion mechanic where, to use the same example, Looting would only be allowed to appear in lists that don't have some of the dredge staples. The list would, then, be more frequently updated in order to prevent new synergies from coming up and completely monopolizing tournaments.
Of course, cards that are a problem for the whole format – such as Lurrus of the Dream-Den, which encourages all players to build their decks around it because it just makes EVERYTHING better – would still need to be hard-banned altogether. This deckbuilding restriction system would, therefore, not be a direct replacement to the now-defunct ban list, it would simply exist alongside it to prevent specific synergies to dominate the format while enabling and moderating its diversity.
Plus, cards that divide the community could be restricted only from certain archetypes that become too consistent by running them.
This system could, eventually, translate to other formats (such as pauper) which use the same banning system as modern, but that would take some tinkering and, not playing any other formats besides these two and EDH (which already restricts all cards to 1 copy, so... yeah), I'm unable to ponder no banned-card pun intended whether it would be good for them... it would take people who actually play other formats to test it and determine for themselves.
Anyways, I look forwards to hear your two cents about this idea, my fellow mtg redditors. So long!
submitted by PikachuOfme_irl to magicTCG [link] [comments]

2023.05.11 22:17 MirrorMeddle Join our Three Card Blind tournament!

Thee Card Blind is a deckbuilding and metagaming puzzle game played through forums. Each participant secretly submits a decklist of three cards, then everyone's submissions battle in a full-information perfect play environment.
This article is a good introduction of the basics of how it works, although notably, in this tournament, we don't use a life tiebreaker.
Our tournament also features a dynamic banlist that's determined by the players. When submitting a deck, the first card you submit will be banned if your deck is in the top 4 of that round. There's also a system for eventually unbanning cards, so they get a chance to shine in a new meta.

How does the tournament work?

You can submit your three cards for the round in this form. Once submissions close, an admin will generate random groups, compute results, and open up the results for feedback. After correcting mistakes brought up by the community, the results are finalized, the banlist is updated, and a new round begins. The deadline for submissions for this round is Friday, May 12th at 16:00 UTC.

Where can I learn more?

You can see the current banlist, results from past rounds, the full rules and more on the website. Sadly I can't directly link that here, as reddit has a sitewide ban on google sites links, but the form above contains a link to the website.

How can I get notified of the results?

The best way to follow the tournament is to join the discord at https://discord.gg/UAyKtu9Yg3
You can also follow things at /threecardblind although most discussion happens in the discord these days.
If those don't work for you there's also an option to provide an email in the submission form. Then you'll get an email when the results are posted, and when submissions for the next round open.
submitted by MirrorMeddle to magicTCG [link] [comments]

2023.05.10 20:17 qtWaifu Can someone help me with Channelfireball Articles?

Hi, I'm an italian player and for the next Pioneer tournement I'm trying MonoG Devotion. There are 3 articles about the deck in the Channelfireball site written by Bobby Fortanely I'm interested in but I can't register because I'm in Europe.
So please can someone send me a pdf or a text file of the articles?
https://strategy.channelfireball.com/cfb-pro-content/how-to-sideboard-with-mtg-pioneer-mono-green-devotion-matchup-and-sideboard-guide/
https://strategy.channelfireball.com/cfb-pro-content/how-to-sideboard-with-mtg-pioneer-mono-green-devotion-the-wishboard/
https://strategy.channelfireball.com/cfb-pro-content/how-to-combo-in-mtg-pioneer-mono-green-devotion/
Sorry for the bad english :(
submitted by qtWaifu to mtg [link] [comments]

2023.05.09 18:27 Fat_Guy_IT Tuesday Content Creator Roundup! Check for links here and post your own as well!

Tuesday Content Creator Roundup! Back on actual Tuesday! Check for links here and post your own as well!
Tuesday Content Creator Roundup Post Videos, Blog Posts, Resources, & Podcasts Here!
Welcome to the Tuesday content creator roundup!
This thread will feature some noteworthy contributions from Flesh & Blood content creators. Lots of gameplay, box openings, discussions etc. Catch up on content by reviewing the links below!
Videos
Blogposts & Other Resource
Podcasts
We know this can never be an exhaustive list and many of the creators listed above put out more than one video just this week so feel free to peruse and view past content as well. This was another long one with returning favorites and some new entries on the list.
Did I miss some great FaB content from last week? Share links and details in the comments below!
submitted by Fat_Guy_IT to FleshandBloodTCG [link] [comments]

2023.05.09 03:53 OceanRainBlu3 Need Help Testing New Format, Vagabond

Hello everyone, hope you're doing well!
Today I bring before you a (sort of) new format I have been testing out, Vagabond. The reason? Simple; I need help. I have reached a point where my own personal data is not enough and I need more playtesting to stress test not only the legitimacy of my baby format but also figure out a "meta". My goal here today is to "sell" those of you who read this post on my new-ish format to go out and make decks and forge my sweet summer child of a format through the fires of battle.
So, What Is Vagabond?
Vagabond is Standard but with only commons, uncommons, and basic lands being legal. 60 card deck and (currently) no sideboard, you play BO3. That is all there is to it.
Isn't That Just Standard Artisan?
Blunty stated? Yes. However Standard Artisan is not only an Arena-exclusive format but hasn't had any events since late 2021. Additionally, at the time Standard decks could have Arena exclusive cards in them; this is not the case anymore but it was at the time. My format would have a guarantee to never have Arena-exclusive cards and also is largely designed for paper play.
If Standard Artisan Hasn't Had Events Since 2021, Doesn't That Mean It's Just A Dead/Failed Format?
To be honest, maybe. My internal playtesting has shown me however that Vagabond is fun to play and from what I can math out not a Tier 0 format (though I need a lot a lot more data to be sure about that). Just because WOTC stops supporting a format doesn't mean it is "bad" or "failed", it usually just means it wasn't profitable. Tiny Leaders "died" until recently and Historic Artisan is on WOTC life-support and those are both good formats in my opinion. I have enjoyed my time with Vagabond; and not just the new "brewer's paradise" it provides, I have actually enjoyed playing the format too.
How Will Vagabond Succeed Where Standard Artisan Failed?
  1. Vagabond will be a Best-of-3 Format. MTG just works best when played B03, helps even out those averages when it comes to mana flood/screw and bad draws. However, that said I currently do not play the format with sideboards as I actually don't think the format needs sideboarding as there are no unbeatable combo or GY decks that need hate. I could be wrong here but we'll just have to see.
  2. There will be bannings. Standard Artisan wasn't around long enough for the format to be properly solved but I have identified problem cards that would break my format if allowed to live. I want this to be a legitimate format and for better or worse legitimate formats need bannings.
What Cards Will Be Banned?
I currently have my finger on the pulse of 4 cards: Infectious Inquiry, Prologue to Phyresis, Vraska's Fall, and Kumano Faces Kakkazan.
The poison cards are in my scope because the format is just too slow to let these cards live and poison counters are impossible to interact with. Toxic creatures get a pass because you can block or remove them but the three spells listed can only be counterspell'd and two of them replace themselves.
KFK is on death row because Mono-Red is currently Tier 1~ in actual standard and I'm pretty sure you can cut the rares and mythics to make it Tier 0 in Vagabond. KFK was identified as the best one drop to hit in the deck and the best place to hit Red Deck Wins is in their 1*'s.
That said, none of these cards are banned yet, these are just cards I currently think I will have to ban. Feel free to play and stress test them as you please in the meantime:)
What Does Vagabond Have Going For It?
  1. Price: Vagabond is extremely cheap with most decks I've built being less than $10. This not only allows a ton of people to play the format but also allows me to be extremely aggressive with bannings as I'm only banning cards worth 25 cents and not 25 dollars.
  2. Play Environment: Vagabond is a lot of fun as you are for the most part just playing draft decks with playsets. This allows for a very low to the ground format where combo is pretty much dead and midrange decks just suck. Every deck needs to be a synergy deck because very few cards in the format can just win you the game by themselves. This does not mean decks are durtley though as MTG's massive powercreep means some Vagabond decks actually feel like standard decks from 10y ago, it's honestly kind of crazy.
Why Not Just Play Pauper?
From my experience, people play Pauper for one reason: price. I fully believe that if WOTC came out and said you can buy every MTG card ever for 10 cents online Pauper would die overnight. To its credit though, Pauper is fun and very cheap (ignoring decks that use Snuff Out and Lotus Petal) but I think its card pool is one of its biggest "contentions" for a lack of a better word. A lot people don't want to spend $100-$1,000+ on a Pioneer, Modern, or Legacy deck but are still turned away by Pauper because of just how big its card pool is. Pauper truly is Legacy lite and for some people that's a win but for some it is a major turn off; Vagabond exists as a format that is not only dirt cheap but also with a small enough card pool that newer players won't be intimidated and experienced players don't have to deal with Brainstorm and what is more or less Legacy Burn every day.
Why Not Just Commons? Why Add Uncommons?
Standard Pauper sucks. In every pauper standard event since BRO came out every deck is either Mono Red or some sort of prototype tribal deck. Even if the apparent meta wasn't a 50/50 split pauper standard has a really small and bad card pool. Adding uncommons not only adds a lot of good cards to the pool but also allows players to literally take the rares and mythics out of draft decks and play with them after finishing playsets. Uncommons are just way too good nowadays.
How Do I Start A Deck?
My best advice is to start the same way you do in draft, signpost uncommons. Using this curated list you can see the list of all of them, pick a card you like, and go from there. A card like Queen Allenal of Ruadach points you in the direction of going wide so you'd just fill your deck with token generators and ways to benefit from that. It's a lot like commander but without the commander.
For land bases I use this link and this link
This is my deck:
https://preview.redd.it/b9ijxb6dppya1.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=0d19ac03676acee5fef392905733175683397061
Where Do I Play Vagabond?
If this post gets any traction I'll make a subreddit and/or discord server for people to play together but until then just figure it out in the comments and DM's. I of course will be willing to play with people:)
Wrapup
I was going to do this writeup later when rotation happened but now that's not happening and this feels like good timing so I'm just doing it now. Just let me know what you think and feel free to discuss below, I am a big fan of this and just want more people to play it.
submitted by OceanRainBlu3 to mtg [link] [comments]

2023.05.07 13:48 ManufacturerJust1456 Mengucci Control List

Mengucci released his u/W control list last week. I wanted to know what y'all thought of his list. I played a nearly identical list for SCG Richmond last month and loved it. The biggest thing that stands out is the three chalices in the main, which I am obsessed with. My biggest question is with his sideboard, though, and I wonder what you'll think. Here's the list: https://strategy.channelfireball.com/cfb-pro-content/azorius-control-is-back-in-modern-mtg-deck-guide/
submitted by ManufacturerJust1456 to uwcontrol [link] [comments]

2023.04.25 16:38 Fat_Guy_IT Tuesday Content Creator Roundup! Check for links here and post your own as well!

Tuesday Content Creator Roundup! Back on actual Tuesday! Check for links here and post your own as well!
Tuesday Content Creator Roundup Post Videos, Blog Posts, Resources, & Podcasts Here!
Welcome to the Tuesday content creator roundup!
This thread will feature some noteworthy contributions from Flesh & Blood content creators. Lots of gameplay, box openings, discussions etc. Catch up on content by reviewing the links below!
Videos
Blogposts & Other Resource
Podcasts
We know this can never be an exhaustive list and many of the creators listed above put out more than one video just this week so feel free to peruse and view past content as well. This was another long one with returning favorites and some new entries on the list.
Did I miss some great FaB content from last week? Share links and details in the comments below!
submitted by Fat_Guy_IT to FleshandBloodTCG [link] [comments]

2023.04.15 00:29 Spritz24H My first commander deck - upgrading Corrupting Influence

Hello guys!
​
I'm trying to upgrade the precon corrupting influence with lot of proliferate (so not an aggro version but sort of midrange?).
​
It's my first commander deck and I'm studying a lot, especially for the number of lands and mana distribution...(ie, i found: https://strategy.channelfireball.com/home/how-many-lands-do-you-need-in-your-deck-an-updated-analysis/#:~:text=A%20good%20formula%20for%20the,if%20you%20have%20a%20companion. and according to the formula I should run 37 lands but I can't really cut anything else...but somehere around reddit I found that yeah it depends and some players here play at 34 lands, idk!)
​
link at the deck:
https://www.moxfield.com/decks/lZXoR0tvTUu1YyGECh9CZQ
​
If you activate the tags I split the cards in the main category:
lands: 35
artifact tools: 3/4 (equip + proliferate)
card advantage: 11/12 (reanimate, draw, etc)
ramps: 3
rocks: 7/8
removals: 6/7
wipes: 3
spell tools: 5 (infect, prison, tutoring, etc)
creatures: 23
------------------------------------------------------------------
creature drop distribution:
1: 5
2: 8
3: 3
4: 1 (+ commander)
5: 4
6: 2 (I'm counting Venomous Brutalizer as drop6 not 4)
------------------------------------------------------------------
  1. Idk if it's a good card to hold: Evolution Sage
  2. Culling ritual maybe doesn't fit well sicne I have lot of drop 1 and 2? Can be replaced with Farewell
  3. I'm not sure if I have enough ramp and draw cards...
  4. I'm holding the two reanimates cu of Proliferate
  5. About the mana base, idk which "duals" to use (I played mtg legacy 12 years ago and I know the shocklands but new tapped lands, slow lands...idk if they are good or not.
  6. (do not count to use original duals, I don't want to buy them rn)
  7. am I missing something in the mana base?
  8. Wurmwake...I'm not sure about this card tbf.
  9. Do I have enough wipes?
​
Under Considering there are other cards and original card in the precon.
Some cards I didn't put cuz of cost, maybe I will integrate with them (ie: Vorinclex, Monstrous Raider even if Imho it doesn't fit well, I mean as Drop6 its effect seems, in this deck and to me, a winmore idk)
​
Please, I'm looking for suggestions!
Based on what I'll end up I'm gonna buy the cards I need :)
​
Thanks in advance!!!
submitted by Spritz24H to EDH [link] [comments]

2023.04.14 20:39 armorthrull Question about 9-fetch Doomsday

I'm looking at getting into Vintage, and looking at Doomsday lists. I found this article: https://oraclesofthecoast.com/vintage/ that says
When playing nine Fetch Lands a sideboard slot will likely be dedicated to a basic Island.
I found a list LSV played that included the basic Island in the board: https://strategy.channelfireball.com/mtg/channelmagic-videos/doomsday-vintage-with-lsv/
But looking over lists on mtggoldfish, I see most people are playing 9 fetches, but no basic in the board: https://www.mtggoldfish.com/archetype/vintage-doomsday
I'm curious about the purpose of the basic Island in the board. What is the reason for including it and why is it not being played in recent lists?
submitted by armorthrull to MTGVintage [link] [comments]

2023.04.13 17:24 MustaKotka Proof by example: why milling does not affect the probabilities

Proof by example: why milling does not affect the probabilities

How does your opponent milling you only a little bit affect your ability to draw a specific key card from your deck? Proof by a simple example. Featuring a special case / exception at the end.

Related to this post (Reddit) about someone asking if incidental mill does anything.
TL;DR: It does not.
TL;DR but slightly longer: if you remove a card from a deck the ratios of cards don't change. Imagine a 16-card deck where you have 4 important cards. Your chance of drawing one is 4 / 16 = 1 / 4 = 25%. You remove 4 cards. On average you've removed 1 important card and 3 others. Your new chance of drawing an important card is now 3 / 12 = 1 / 4 = 25%, as in, the exact same. Q.E.D.

Assumptions:

  • No mulligans: won't change the math because milling happens after your opening hand has been already drawn.
  • Incidental mill only: your opponent's plan is not to mill you out completely.
  • Format is Modern: 60 cards, 4 of a card is allowed.
  • Game length 6.7 turns: an average game of Modern, according to this article (Channel Fireball).
  • Mills per turn: 3. It's a single [[Hedron Crab]] (Scryfall) and your opponent always hits their land drop.
  • Only 1 draw per turn: you do not have other card advantage than the single card per turn.
  • Self-mill not allowed: you do not have any cards that would mill you for additional cards.
  • Your deck deck contains an important key card you're looking for: 4 copies of it.
  • No recursion: you have no cards that would let you dig cards from your graveyard.
  • EDIT: No tutors: you don't have cards that would let you search for other cards.

Tools:

About:

A factorial is defined as n! = n × (n – 1) × (n – 2) × ... × 3 × 2 × 1. For example 5! = 5 × 4 × 3 × 2 × 1 = 120. You can see how this number gets big really fast.
A 60 card deck can be in 60! different permutations (Wikipedia) because the first card can be any one of the 60 cards, the next one is one of 59 and so forth. So the numbers are big. The probability of drawing a specific card is calculated through the hypergeometric distribution which is defined via factorials. Every draw affects the next draw, essentially. Here's a tool (Aetherhub) you can use yourself if you want.
Hypergeometric distributions don't normally accept anything but natural numbers (0, 1, 2, ...) but since we're doing a bit of cheating here we need a tool that accepts decimals. More on why in a bit. A gamma function is the perfect solution because it lets us approximate the factorial (Wikipedia) of a number with fairly good precision.

Why a Hedron Crab / only 3 cards milled per turn?

An average game of Modern lasts about 6.7 turns. Remember: the opponent cannot mill you completely and this is incidental mill only. Hence the minimum mills per turn to mill you completely is: = ( – – × ) / = (60 – (7 + 1) – 1 × 6.7) / 3 = 6.76 which we have to round up to 7 because your opponent must mill an excess. We're going to go for a middle ground number of 3 because 1 per turn doesn't display the effect adequately and anything above 5 seems like a mill plan already.

The proof:

The game proceeds so that you draw your opening hand of 7, then go to turn 1. Two possibilities: you're on the draw or you're not on the draw. We pick you go first i.e. you're on the draw for no particular reason as this changes nothing. You then draw 1 for turn, your opponent takes the turn and plays the Hedron Crab - no mills yet. You go to turn 2, draw for turn, your opponent mills you for 3. And so forth. Here:
Sequence of events
Here we see the turn count where a .5 means it's your opponent's turn. Then comes your deck size at the beginning of that turn. "Key cards" refers to how many (expected value, EV) of those 4 key cards are still expected to be in your deck at the beginning of the turn. "Action" is what happens. "Number" is associated with the action. Then come two probabilities - "p(yes key)" is the probability of the action to hit one of those key cards and "p(no key)" is just the inverse probability.
Each probability uses a hypergeometric distribution function to determine the possibility of the said event happening. Here we come to the gamma function which, as an approximation tool, lets us plug in decimals. So for each probability we actually use the EV of key cards as the basis for the calculation.
As you can see the probability of something happening at each stage never changes. There's the proof. Mill does nothing. Q.E.D.
Or is that it...?

The exception of your opponent milling all of your key cards:

What if your opponent mills all of your key cards before you can draw them? What's the chance of this happening?
We need to simplify the problem a bit. We can no longer approximate the remaining number of cards in the deck via EVs - instead the whole problem turns into a massive decision tree where there are multiple outcomes for each event. Let's say you've drawn your 8 cards at the beginning of the game. Next up one possible outcome is that your opponent mills 3 key cards. Your chance of drawing the remaining one is greatly reduced. But there are three other options, too: they mill 0, 1, or 2 of those cards. The next probability calculation would have to be individual for each of those cases. Each step produces an ever increasing number of possible outcomes that each have their own set of outcomes. One can Monte Carlo method (Wikipedia) this computationally but I'm not very code savvy so I'll leave that to someone else.
Instead we assume you draw 8 cards at the beginning of the game, then mill 18, and then draw the remaining 6 cards (which is irrelevant, really). This will give us the absolute worst case scenario and an upper bound for the effect's magnitude.
Sequence of events
We're looking for the probability where you don't draw any of your key cards in the first 8 and then your opponent mills all of them. We only need to do one bit of math to get the result which is: p(no key cards in the opening hand of 7) × p(no key card in the draw for turn) × p(all key cards milled) = 0.6005 × 0.9245 × 0.0113 = 0.006 = 0.6%. In the end this means that in about 1 in 200 games your opponent's incidental mill did something under the very heavy assumptions and simplifications we outlined in the beginning. In reality decks have redundancy and recursion so we can safely put this issue to rest and assume incidental milling has absolutely no effect on your game.

ADDENDUM: 4C Omnath & Standard

Well, now I'm embarrassed. Regarding 4C Omnath, Locus of Creation (Scryfall) in Standard.
This just in by u/RickyRister:
Back when 4C Omnath was in standard, I remember seeing some people run incidental Ruin Crabs in their decks, because 4C Omnath was often running only a single basic for some colors, so there was a non-zero chance that you could just cut them off one of their colors for Fabled Passage
Here Ruin Crab (Scryfall) does the same job as a Hedron Crab: it mills the opponent for 3 every turn. We can directly check what happens if the deck has a single key card that it needs to protect. Paste in the math chart for:
Sequence of actions, assuming there's one colour for which you only have one basic you must find
It actually happens so that incidental mill here is important. Again, we're assuming your opponent mills all of their mills straight after your turn 1. The total probability is: p(no key card in the opening hand of 7) × p(no key card in the draw for turn) × p(the key card is milled) = 0.8833 × 0.9811 × 0.3462 = 0.30 = 30%.
Big OOPS from my behalf. Having a 30% chance of bricking someone's game plan with a single Ruin Crab (that kinda acts like Traumatize (Scryfall)) is definitely non-zero and must be accounted for.
What makes this calculation more complicated is that if you happen to hit a Fabled Passage (Scryfall) (4-of, likely) in your opening hand you might still have a fighting chance once you see the crab hit the field as you can crack the Passage for that single basic you need even if it's not the ideal land to search up at that moment. I have not accounted for this at the moment. Might do that later. Done, here are the results:
Sequence of events with 4 Fabled Passage & 1 basic of the most vulnerable colour
Here we see how having 4 Fabled Passages in addition to that one basic affects the outcome. So in the first step we draw 8 (7+1) and find the probability of you not drawing a single Fabled Passage and you not drawing the basic land within those 8 cards. In the second step we shortcut/cheat and mill 18 where hitting the basic land only is relevant.
This is because on your first turn it's okay to find at least one Fabled Passage or the basic land (or a combination thereof) and still have time to crack the Fabled Passage for the basic land when you see the Ruin Crab hit the field.
When your opponent mills: the Fabled Passages matter no more because it's crucial that you weren't able to draw or fetch the basic on turn 1. It doesn't matter how many of them are left (i.e. probability of that happening is 100% if the outcome doesn't matter) as long as the basic is milled.
Looks like the chance of bricking your game is actually significant: about 16.5%. That's about 1 in 6 games.
For you curious ones I also added a second basic into the mix:
Sequence of events with 4 Fabled Passages & 2 basics of the most vulnerable colour
Not much to explain here anymore. Mainly that adding a second basic drastically reduces the probability of your opponent crippling you completely to 4.7%. That's about 1 in 20 games. Still kind of significant!

Thanks for reading!

Hit me with any questions you might have. Feedback appreciated: especially if it looks like I made mistakes I'd like to know.
Thank you for your feedback - especially the 4C Omnath part!
Have a nice day! :)
submitted by MustaKotka to magicTCG [link] [comments]

2023.04.03 21:13 SultnBinegar Druid Storm: Has anyone tried it?

I have been interested in building a combo deck for Pioneer and many people have suggested Lotus Combo, but I didn’t really like the play of it.
I recently found a ChannelFireball article about a similar deck, Druid Storm, that uses [[Incubation Druid]] and other Mana Dorks in conjunction with [[Ivy, Gleeful Spellthief]] and untap cards to generate tons of value.
Just testing the water to see if anyone has played a similar deck to this, and how they found it, or what their decklists were like.
submitted by SultnBinegar to PioneerMTG [link] [comments]

2023.03.28 16:14 Fat_Guy_IT Tuesday Content Creator Roundup! Check for links here and post your own as well!

Tuesday Content Creator Roundup Post Videos, Blog Posts, Resources, & Podcasts Here!
Welcome to the Tuesday content creator roundup!
This thread will feature some noteworthy contributions from Flesh & Blood content creators. Lots of gameplay, box openings, etc as would befit this new release. Catch up on content by reviewing the outline below!
Videos
Blogposts & Other Resource
Podcasts
We know this can never be an exhaustive list and many of the creators listed above put out more than one video just this week so feel free to peruse and view past content as well. This was another long one with returning favorites and some new entries on the list.
Did I miss some great FaB content from last week? Share links and details in the comments below!
submitted by Fat_Guy_IT to FleshandBloodTCG [link] [comments]

2023.03.15 03:17 MirrorMeddle Join our Three Card Blind tournament!

Thee Card Blind is a deckbuilding and metagaming puzzle game played through forums. Each participant secretly submits a decklist of three cards, then everyone's submissions battle in a full-information perfect play environment.
This article is a good introduction of the basics of how it works, although notably, in this tournament, we don't use a life tiebreaker.
Our tournament also features a dynamic banlist that's determined by the players. When submitting a deck, the first card you submit will be banned if your deck is in the top 4 of that round. There's also a system for eventually unbanning cards, so they get a chance to shine in a new meta.

How does the tournament work?

You can submit your three cards for the round in this form. Once submissions close, an admin will generate random groups, compute results, and open up the results for feedback. After correcting mistakes brought up by the community, the results are finalized, the banlist is updated, and a new round begins. The deadline for submissions for this round is Thursday, March 16 at 18:00 UTC.

Where can I learn more?

You can see the current banlist, results from past rounds, the full rules and more on the website. Sadly I can't directly link that here, as reddit has a sitewide ban on google sites links, but the form above contains a link to the website.

How can I get notified of the results?

The best way to follow the tournament is to join the discord at https://discord.gg/UAyKtu9Yg3
You can also follow things at /threecardblind although most discussion happens in the discord these days.
If those don't work for you there's also an option to provide an email in the submission form. Then you'll get an email when the results are posted, and when submissions for the next round open.
submitted by MirrorMeddle to magicTCG [link] [comments]

2023.03.11 00:15 sugitime What online retailers exist with decent prices?

I’m aware of CK and TCGPlayer. Was looking to see if there were any other online retailers that sell singles for very good prices. SCG and ChannelFireball are both quite expensive, compared to TCGPlayer. Figured I’d see if there was someone out there with good prices.
submitted by sugitime to magicTCG [link] [comments]

2023.03.07 15:53 Fat_Guy_IT Tuesday Content Creator Roundup! Check for links here and post your own as well!

Tuesday Content Creator Roundup Post Videos, Blog Posts, Resources, & Podcasts Here!
Welcome to the Tuesday content creator roundup!
This thread will feature some noteworthy contributions from Flesh & Blood content creators (especially the ones that are also redditors). Lots of gameplay, box openings, etc as would befit this new release. Catch up on content by reviewing the outline below!
Videos
Blogposts & Other Resource
Podcasts
We know this can never be an exhaustive list and many of the creators listed above put out more than one video just this week so feel free to peruse and view past content as well. This was another long one with returning favorites and some new entries on the list.
Did I miss some great FaB content from last week? Share links and details in the comments below!
submitted by Fat_Guy_IT to FleshandBloodTCG [link] [comments]

2023.03.06 15:46 nerd2thecore Poison is Coming Back to Pauper MTG in a Big Way on ChannelFireball

Poison is Coming Back to Pauper MTG in a Big Way on ChannelFireball submitted by nerd2thecore to Pauper [link] [comments]

2023.02.28 15:54 Fat_Guy_IT Tuesday Content Creator Roundup! Check for links here and post your own as well!

Tuesday Content Creator Roundup Post Videos, Blog Posts, Resources, & Podcasts Here!
Welcome to the Tuesday content creator roundup!
This thread will feature some noteworthy contributions from Flesh & Blood content creators (especially the ones that are also redditors). Lots of gameplay, box openings, etc as would befit this new release. Catch up on content by reviewing the outline below!
Videos
Blogposts & Other Resource
Podcasts
We know this can never be an exhaustive list and many of the creators listed above put out more than one video just this week so feel free to peruse and view past content as well. This was another long one with returning favorites and some new entries on the list.
Did I miss some great FaB content from last week? Share links and details in the comments below!
submitted by Fat_Guy_IT to FleshandBloodTCG [link] [comments]

2023.02.25 22:31 Ted_CruZodiac Help building Murktide for RCQ

Hi, so I'm getting ready to go to a local RCQ soon and was wondering what people's thoughts are on certain cards in Murktide. I found Mengucci's article from Channel Fireball (https://strategy.channelfireball.com/all-strategy/home/free-modern-mtg-deck-guide-update-izzet-murktide-is-still-busted/) and have made changes to my deck to match it except for these few changes:
Mainboard: Swapped out the 4th Shredder for a 4th Bolt. Sideboard: Swapped out Relic of Progenitus for Tormod's Crypt, took out the 3rd Engineered Explosives for 1st Invasive Surgery, took out 2nd Blood Moon for 1st Magus of the Moon.
Thoughts behind this: 4th bolt feels better more often to take out a threat or hit face to end the game quicker. Crypt can come down turn 1 with Spell Pierce backup or not interrupt my other turn 1 plays like relic would. A resolved Invasive Surgery with Delirium cripples cascade decks and indomitable creativity whereas 3rd EE is better only against Rhinos and go wide artifacts, which I haven't seen much of. And finally, Magus instead of 2nd Blood Moon makes me less susceptible to artifact hate in titan and tron.
For anyone who read this far, what are your thoughts?
submitted by Ted_CruZodiac to ModernMagic [link] [comments]