What is +EV betting. tldr, one of the only ways to be profitable in the long term betting on home runs since home run lines are usually juiced to the tits. You basically are trying to find sportsbooks and markets that have mispriced odds in the bettors favor. You aren't looking into stats, pitching matchups, weather, or ballpark rankings. As ActionNetwork puts it

EV betting is not about what you think will happen, but about an advantage you have over the implied probabilities of bets by using lines and information sportsbooks are already giving you

I use a devigger to remove the sportsbooks vig and to calculate +EV against a sharp book like bet365. I choose bet365 because it has one of the lowest vigs on home runs out of all sportsbooks and is widely popular. This is what the smartest people look for in the dinger tuesday threads to ensure profitability over the long-term.
These aren't guarantees, these guys are NOT likely to home run on a given day, but if you take enough +EV plays over a long period of time, you should end up profitable. My record since starting posting: 16W-58L (+18.20u)
My Picks (I take all +EV plays for $5 unless your name is Gallo. I'm posting the odds I got them at...make sure to check odds because lines move fast on fanduel HRs)
7.3% EV: ATL Matt Olson +280 FD vs bet365 +220/-280. Implied = 28.2%
All updated EVs combined with negative EV plays close to 0 (I don't bet if negative EV but they have the chance of becoming +EV with a slight odds change, so keep on radar)
updated: 9:30AM EST
7.5% EV: MIN Joey Gallo +440 FD vs bet365 +330/-450. Implied = 19.9% 3.1% EV: ATL Matt Olson +265 FD vs bet365 +220/-280. Implied = 28.2% 1.0% EV: SD Brandon Dixon +750 FD vs bet365 +550/-850. Implied = 11.9% -0.4% EV: CHW Eloy Jimenez +400 FD vs bet365 +330/-450. Implied = 19.9% -1.0% EV: NYY Aaron Judge +235 FD vs bet365 +210/-260. Implied = 29.6% -5.2% EV: MIA Jorge Soler +340 FD vs bet365 +310/-400. Implied = 21.6% -5.4% EV: CHW Andrew Vaughn +500 FD vs bet365 +425/-600. Implied = 15.8% -8.2% EV: BOS Triston Casas +520 FD vs bet365 +450/-650. Implied = 14.8% -10.4% EV: PHI Kyle Schwarber +350 FD vs bet365 +330/-450. Implied = 19.9% -11.0% EV: SD Fernando Tatis +330 FD vs bet365 +320/-425. Implied = 20.7% -11.1% EV: TEX Corey Seager +500 FD vs bet365 +450/-650. Implied = 14.8% -11.9% EV: LAA Zach Neto +900 FD vs bet365 +725/-1200. Implied = 8.8% -11.9% EV: WSH Luis Garcia +900 FD vs bet365 +725/-1200. Implied = 8.8% -11.9% EV: WSH Keibert Ruiz +900 FD vs bet365 +725/-1200. Implied = 8.8% -12.9% EV: CIN Matt Mclain +560 FD vs bet365 +500/-750. Implied = 13.2% -13.2% EV: TEX Josh Jung +450 DK vs bet365 +425/-600. Implied = 15.8% -13.8% EV: TOR Matt Chapman +370 DK vs bet365 +360/-500. Implied = 18.3% -13.8% EV: CHW Luis Robert +370 FD vs bet365 +360/-500. Implied = 18.3% -15.0% EV: LAA Hunter Renfroe +400 FD vs bet365 +390/-550. Implied = 17.0% -15.8% EV: HOU Corey Julks +750 FD vs bet365 +650/-1050. Implied = 9.9% -16.3% EV: COL Randal Grichuk +500 FD vs bet365 +475/-700. Implied = 14.0% -16.8% EV: NYY Jake Bauers +600 FD vs bet365 +550/-850. Implied = 11.9% -17.3% EV: PHI Jt Realmuto +630 FD vs bet365 +575/-900. Implied = 11.3% -17.3% EV: WSH Jeimer Candelario +630 FD vs bet365 +575/-900. Implied = 11.3% -17.5% EV: DET Spencer Torkelson +560 FD vs bet365 +525/-800. Implied = 12.5% -17.5% EV: OAK Ramon Laureano +560 FD vs bet365 +525/-800. Implied = 12.5% -17.5% EV: CHC Matt Mervis +560 FD vs bet365 +525/-800. Implied = 12.5% -17.5% EV: TB Christian Bethancourt +560 FD vs bet365 +525/-800. Implied = 12.5% -18.2% EV: COL Kris Bryant +520 FD vs bet365 +500/-750. Implied = 13.2% -19.0% EV: OAK Shea Langeliers +480 FD vs bet365 +475/-700. Implied = 14.0% -20.7% EV: NYY Willie Calhoun +600 FD vs bet365 +575/-900. Implied = 11.3% -20.7% EV: CHW Romy Gonzalez +600 DK vs bet365 +575/-900. Implied = 11.3% -22.7% EV: SD Nelson Cruz +680 FD vs bet365 +650/-1050. Implied = 9.9% -22.7% EV: LAD Miguel Vargas +680 FD vs bet365 +650/-1050. Implied = 9.9% -22.7% EV: CIN Jose Barrero +680 FD vs bet365 +650/-1050. Implied = 9.9% -24.5% EV: MIA Garrett Cooper +630 FD vs bet365 +625/-1000. Implied = 10.3% -24.5% EV: COL Brenton Doyle +630 FD vs bet365 +625/-1000. Implied = 10.3% -25.2% EV: ARI Lourdes Gurriel +750 FD vs bet365 +725/-1200. Implied = 8.8% -25.2% EV: NYM Francisco Alvarez +750 DK vs bet365 +725/-1200. Implied = 8.8% -25.8% EV: LAA Jared Walsh +680 FD vs bet365 +675/-1100. Implied = 9.5%
These are not meant to be parlayed

Something I found very shocking was that TWY have a monthly listener count of 589k. For clarity to those who don’t fully understand this number, it is the unique listener count for the past 28 days. For a band their size this is shockingly low and made me wonder why they aren’t seeing more listeners. TWY play +1500 cap rooms on their tours and are very popular, yet bands that headline 300 cap rooms (at best) have way more listeners. Now I know monthly listener metrics aren’t the be all end all, the gap to other bands on the scene is crazy, just thought this would be interesting to others as well: below are some comparatives:
The Story So Far - 993k
Real Friends - 545k
Boston Manor - 652k
State Champs - 1.1M
Stand Atlantic - 861k
Point North - 1.3M
Neck Deep - 3.9M
Magnolia Park - 953k
Broadside - 794k
Arrows In Action - 805k (recently released an album)
Hot Milk - 510k
With Confidence - 817k
Four Year Strong - 418k
Hot Mulligan - 913k (recently released an album)
Mom Jeans - 764k
*it’s also worth noting that TWY released a single 2 weeks ago, so their numbers are propped up more than usual with release radar bumps, and many of these bands listed here haven’t

Race Information

• Name: Burlington Marathon
• Date: May 27th 2023
• Distance: 26.2 miles
• Location: Burlington VT
• Time: 3:44

Goals

Goal	Description	Completed?
A	Finish	Yes
B	Sub 3:30	No

Splits

Mile	Time
1	9:07
2	8:12
3	8:09
4	8:02
5	8:08
6	8:21
7	8:31
8	8:48
9	8:11
10	8:02
11	8:09
12	8:09
13	8:08
14	8:05
15	8:08
16	8:05
17	8:26
18	8:15
19	8:23
20	8:14
21	9:07
22	8:48
23	9:04
24	9:04
25	8:51
26	8:58
27	9:00

Training

Used Pfitz 12/55 with a couple of extra weeks for base building sprinkled in. I had two slight hamstring pulls and took some milage off those week (2 weeks total), but otherwise hit all my mileage. I did switch out some of the Vo2Max workouts for threshold runs. It is hard for me to understand running that fast for marathon training and in all prior injuries it was during the faster paced stuff, so I wanted to avoid that. Ran all my slow runs slow, maybe too slow?
I switched to a modified Molly Seidel training plan (available for Coros Watch users) for the last 3 weeks prior to race day. This included more tempo runs (run at 7:30/mi) and intervals of subthreshold paces (5x2mi for example). It had two workouts per week and a long run on the weekend.
I ran in Brooks adrenaline that were probably a little past their prime. Trained primarily with HR ranges and with a Polar H9 near the end of training * this may have had negative consequences on race day. On long training runs I used a water vest and 4-5 Gu. 18 mi progress run 3 weeks out with avg of 8:22 min/mile and multiple miles sub 8 with HR in the 145s -- set current era PR HM of 1:45 during that run.
I did two 20 mile runs and a couple 18 mi (the last one 3 weeks out was a progression run -- wish I had done more of these). The 20 mile runs were not done particularly fast and I unfortunately didnt realize I should be picking the pace up at the end of the run.
Averaged 48 miles per week with roughly 6 runs per week. In hindsight, I probably didnt run enough hard miles early on.

Pre-race

Taper primarily 2 weeks prior. 4 weeks out mileage was 47mi, 3 weeks out 47 mi, 2 weeks out 40mi, week of 14 mi (not including marathon). Two weeks before did an 8 mi subthreshold run and a 6 mi subthreshold run (avg pace 7:30-7:45/mi) for workouts. Saturday before marathon I did 5x2mi @ threshold (7:15-7:30).
Carb loaded for 4 days. Drank copious water. Poor sleep two night before due to newborn not wanting to sleep. Bagel with butter 2 hrs before race. No warm up. Read Advanced Marathoning. Planned to do Gatorade every 2 miles 3-4 Oz and only thought I would need two gu for the race (what AdvMar book mentioned doing to stay hydrated and with enough calories).

Race

Weather morning of was perfect, mid 60s. Delay in the start due to course problems so started at roughly 7:30 or so. 3:30 pacers went out pretty fast, lost them pretty quickly but didnt want to chase them.
WateGatorade stations every 2 miles. Good sized crowds throughout, so many opportunities to take ice pops along the way. Tried to take some for a little extra sugar and to cool the glabrous skin.
The race is two loops of a figure-of-eight. Many segments (both outbound aspects and one of the inbound aspects so 3/4) are uncovered and runners are exposed to the sun. This, combined with the heat, became a problem later in the run.
Primarily trained based on HR, so didn't really have a good guess as to how to properly pace. Knew I wanted to run slightly negative (not accomplished). Started out with HR in the 140 range until 1/2 way. This was very easy and I really had to focus on holding back the whole time. Had a Gu at 1:15. After half way point, I started to slightly increase effort to try and catch the 3:30 pacer since I felt so good. HR in 145 range for a 2 miles then jumped up to 148 for 4 miles. Really started to notice fatigue of my intercostal muscles around mile 17-18. Realized I never trained with a HR strap for long runs but didnt want to lose that metric (dumb -- eventually took it fully off at mile 23). Slight abdominal cramping. Decent hill between mile 19-20. Didnt feel that hard but HR up and pace down from then on. Essentially bonked. Due to noticing inc in RPE and higher HR and slower pace, I realized I was bonking, I had a Gu. Noticed I wasnt sweating. Tried drinking more water. Full on Hamstring cramp at ~23mi. Quick stop (~10 sec) to stretch and drink water. Quad also triggering like it was going to cramp the rest of the run. Drank more fluids as available. This marathon is also has a relay and half relay so was getting passed a lot in the last couple of miles. My goal transitioned to not getting passed by 3:45 pacer (achieved). Finish was hot ~85 F.

Post-race

Honestly, felt some disappointment. Was hoping to run faster and thought I may be able to, but Coros had predicted a 3:39 so it seems like I was overconfident. I would like to qualify for Boston at some point (need a 3:05). I am going to try and do another marathon this fall, but not sure which parts of training to really focus on. Now that I am safely handling this mileage maybe I need to focus on more speed workouts and progressing through my long runs at faster paces. Was thinking of doing the BAA level 4 training plan with paces chosen at 3-3:15 MP. I realize that may be too fast, but I will just have loose targets and train with RPE.
Physically, had no soreness. Feel great and just did a 4 mile easy run today 3 days after which felt fine.

Lessons Learned

Dont wear HR strap on race day if I havent trained long runs with it. Gatorade endurance didnt have as many calories as I was expecting. I am also 6'1" and probably needed more calories than I took in. Should have stuck with water and gu as I did in training. More hydration on hot days (AdvMarathoning had suggested more than 3-4 oz every 15 minutes would lead to fluid sloshing around in your belly, but should have drank more) When Coros predicts a 3:39, its pretty darn accurate.

Lingering Questions

Should I have run harder earlier to have more of a pace buffer for when I bonked? (I know if I had run fast and subsequently bonked, I would have thought it was a dumb idea, but I bonked even though I ran slower to avoid it.) Should I have tapered longer?
Made with a new race report generator created by herumph.

I specify the POV because I don't want to focus on organizations who have bad management or have something else that is otherwise fixable. I am more curious about your thoughts on unchangeable factors.
For example, IMO, Tampa and Florida seem to have a significant advantage due to nice weather, low taxes, and players can mostly fly under the radar when they step outside their house. Canadian teams are generally the exact opposite. If I was an NHL player, these are all highly relevant factors I would consider when thinking about where to sign as a free agent. I wonder just how much this sort of thing has historically hurt Canadian teams, resulting in their overall lack of recent success in getting the cup.

O Grêmio segue em busca de reforços para seu ataque e agora tem seu radar voltado para o Uruguai. Segundo o empresário Edgardo Lasalvia, o atacante Cristian Olivera, atualmente no Boston River, interessa ao clube. A revelação foi feita em entrevista à Rádio Oriental do Uruguai.
Olivera, de 21 anos, atua pelos lados do campo, preferencialmente pela direita, e já teve passagens pela seleção uruguaia de base. O atacante, formado nas categorias de base do Rentistas, já passou pelo Almería, da Espanha, e pelo Peñarol, do Uruguai.
“Tem várias possibilidades nacionais, porém economicamente é muito difícil. Do Brasil, tenho várias e muito interessantes. Hoje estou conversando com a equipe de Suárez, o Grêmio de Porto Alegre, que está muito interessado, mas temos que formular e chegar a um acordo com o Almería”, disse Lasalvia.
Com a camisa do Boston River, Olivera disputou 30 partidas e marcou oito gols.
https://www.gremistas.net/noticias-do-gremio/atacante-uruguaio-radar-gremio-quem-e-alvo-segundo-empresario-jogado

I have family visiting this weekend and I just wanted to throw out a post to see what was going on around Boston this weekend.
We are catching the Red Sox game on Friday night but other then that I don’t have anything solid planned. It’s supposed to rain (40-50% chance) but we all know how consistent the weather is around here.
Thanks!!

• 26M
• 5YOE
• 760 GMAT
• International

Lucky to get admitted to multiple schools. Had offers from 2 M7's (with a token scholarship) but have turned them down (yes some commenters will call me stupid, but I'm being risk averse).
Location agnostic for post-MBA, with a preference for Investment Banking, with a stretch ambition for startups (or perhaps VC). Coming from a technology background, and have worked in a Tech Strategy side of a company already overseas so have that counting for me.

Trying to weigh up the offers, some of my thinking points:

1) Scholarship
Duke has a substantially higher scholarship and that definitely weight for it.
2) Culture
Duke has been much warmer than Yale. That is not a slight on Yale who have been possibly the second warmest of my admitted schools. Though it sounds like a cult, Team Fuqua seems to be a real element to the experience there. Small things like emailing on birthdays to having the interviewer dial in and congratulate you after your acceptance just makes it feel like they want you more.
3) Location
In general, i've heard New Haven isn't a great place to live in. However, it is central to Boston/NYC which I can see it making networking that much easier? That said, I see just as many Fuquans in great IB positions as SOM alumni, so I assume that doesn't play a huge factor.
On the flip side, NE Weather sucks, so Durham wins out on liveability. Plus, UNC Chapel Hill, and some major companies like BCG have offices there, whereas no one really has offices in New Haven.
Overall, fairly even in my mind.
4) Compensation post-MBA
Both report almost identical median pay for both internationals & locals. Plus, all top companies are hiring at both. Am I missing anything?
5) Lay Prestige in the US
I think Yale edges this. Correct me if i'm wrong but HYP undergrad prestige plus its law school gives it name recognition. The Ivy name i
That said, both have top class law & medical, with Duke having the world's best Nursing program (though i don't see that as being a big plus to the MBA besides finding an amazing nurse for a partner lol).
Overall, Yale is ahead. How much ahead though? Say 95% of people know Yale, would 80% know Duke?
6) Lay prestige in my country
Both schools don't have much lay prestige in my country. People interested in academia/law or post grad will know both. However, in the Asia Pacific region, I think Yale would dominate Duke. Duke is heard of, but not to the level of Yale.
7) Recognition in the Business World and Quality of Alumni
This one is very tricky. Fuqua has been the much better business school, especially from 1990-2010 period. Heck, Fuqua was going toe-to-toe with the lower M7's at that point. Pretty much like Berkeley today. However, since late 2000's, early 2010's, Fuqua has declined a bit and stabilised. This is seen in the rankings dropping from consistently 7/8/9 to now about 11/12.
Yale on the other hand has boosted themselves into the spot Fuqua was once upon a time.
Despite that, shouldn't Fuqua's alumni base be better? The Fuquans of the 90's and 2000's are now the ones in those influence positions. Meanwhile, Yale's rise is really only the last 5 years?
Any hard stats to compare on this?
8) Access to Startup World?
Both schools don't compare to H/S/W, but both seem to have some activity. Duke has strong potential in healthcare/agri/cleantech space but its startups varies drastically year to year (just 1 in 2022), while Yale seems to be more generalised and consistent. Hard to gauge this one.
Guess this one comes down to resources available too. I think both schools have small startup programs, incubators and such, but anything which makes either standout?
​

On the above points, I'm leaning Duke, but would appreciate any comments from Fuquans, Yalies, or other MBA alumni/students/applicants.

EDIT: Duke is $$$, Yale more like $+$/2, so difference is about $60k

Even in 2023, many different weather radar data formats and representations make it challenging to process them all together. So, we decided to grow the coverage and share all the gathered data by creating the completely free RainViewer API.
Our Patreon page with the API's development insights: https://www.patreon.com/rainviewer

Hey Boston
This thread is for chatting about what is going on in Boston today. This includes the news about today's commute, what is going on around Boston, commonly asked questions, as well as a general free chat throughout the day.
Example topics include:

• Regularly asked questions
• Best places to go for a hike/walk in or around Boston
• Updates on the COVID-19 situation in Boston/other local towns
• Best places to go out to eat or drink
• Things going on in and around Boston
• General questions that you feel do not require an entire thread
• Music you have been listening to lately, or shows you have started watching
• Skyline or sunset pictures

Here are some useful links as well:

1. The weather
2. MBTA alerts and delays
3. Official COVID-19 Information

Please be civil and keep things SFW.
Self promotion of Boston related events, activities, and news is allowed so long as the event is happening within the next 5 days and not a regularly occurring event.
If there is something you'd like to see here please message the moderators and let us know.

A bit long..lots of context
I studied in Japan for two years in uni and right after graduation was accepted onto the JET program and lived a very simple rural life for 2 years before moving to Osaka for 7 more to continue teaching (actually international school teaching, not Eikaiwa). I have JLPT 2 and many good friends still in Japan (although now a bit scattered all over the country)
When I was in Japan, I loved many aspects of life there (speaking Japanese, hiking/local travel, food, general cleanliness, connecting with people). But as a person, I had a lot of trauma to deal with and really didn't know how to...or knew that mental health support was even an option. I had lots of unhealthy habits, I dove into the grind life, over drinking, and lots of smoking. I had good fiends but also prioritized going out to bars and having one-night stands. Living in Osaka was the best and the worst for many reasons. And over time the lack of queer rights and feminism had me feeling really frustrated and on edge.
I had lived in Japan from when I was 19-28, pretty formative years. I thought I would live there forever. But due to family sickness, a dire need for my own trauma therapy, and to complete my master's practicum in a very specific educational setting--I left. I spent 3 years in Boston and loved it but have always been convinced the American dream (and school shootings) are not for me.
Leaving my Japan dream behind, I applied for schools in northern EU countries. I wanted lots of vacation days, higher pay, more benefits, and ability to travel. I was able to move to Berlin, Germany...covid hit and really felt like my first 2 years here were just isolating and working. I left my well paying school on the outskirts of Berlin because I disagreed ethically with how the school conducts itself..and I find that I am a worse financial position than I was in the states (shockingly)
I work at an amazing international school, love the culture, love the people, but the hours are long, pay sucks, and the time off is not so much...rent in Berlin is so high you almost want to vomit. I love and hate living in this city..so much going on and so dirty all the time (syringes and broken glass everywhere). German nature sucks, weather sucks, and people are not so friendly. I have a good group of friends but Berlin is wildly transient.
Yet...I will get permanent residency soon and all the benefits for a life that hasn't happened yet.
I feel comfortable in Germany as an openly queer person, tattooed, leftist and, feminist...knowing that raising a family here would have so mannnnyyyyyyy benefits for me and children.
Yet...I don't have children, I'm not married but in Germany it is easier to be a bit older and figure this stuff out. At 34 I feel that life is not over here and I have many opportunities.
But I don't love Germany, speaking German is horribly hard...I feel in limbo constantly.
My heart aches for Japan and now that I have so much more wisdom about myself and values--I feel I want to move out to the country side/small city again, knowing I wouldn't find myself in the black hole of Namba self-medicating with way too much partying. I feel like I missed a chance for a wholesome life.
Facebook kills me as all my other foreign friends, stuck it through in their 20s and are married, kids, and all that jazz. Although, I wouldn't give up all the growing and experiences I have had.
But for me, moving to Japan mid-30s, single, childless, and all of the above...I feel that I am signing myself up for a lonely life.
In Germany, there feels like so much more time to work towards building a family in a country with amazing benefits that I've worked so hard to achieve. I also have no pressure of how I present as women, and that all my somewhat quirky traits being attractive here. But in Japan makes searching for a partner all the more harder.
Is it my time to stick it through in Germany and build a possibly nice life...or throw everything up in the air for another chance in Japan (because..yolo).
Any other mid-30s folks from the EU give a up stability, restart another pension plan, and relocate to a place with way less benefits (especially for working women) and found that it went okay???

On his latest episode Bill defends keeping the Jays together with one of his reasons being the east will be weaker next season. He says something like Bucks and Sixers have a lot of roster uncertainty and prob take a step back. Cleveland isn’t ready. Then he starts listing off other teams that he just doesn’t seem worried about. NY, BK, ATL, Toronto, Miami, Chicago, etc.
Thought it was hilarious how Miami was swept under the rug as a non-threat on a podcast entirely about how the Heat just ended their season and are now 2-1 in the last 4 years vs the Celtics. Really!? especially after Bill was one of the few who had the Heat on his radar for sneaky playoff killers.
I think his point is mostly fair and agree Boston should keep the Jays together but thought the Heat overlook was crazy.

 ========☢️GROUNDZERO☢️======== “The Plague Is Upon Us” 

https://discord.gg/tyQuB774yX

 🎮XBOX🎮 😈PVP/SURVIVAL👿 🗺️CHERNARUS [32 Slot]🗺️ 🌄Days- 3hrs ~~ Nights- 45min🌌 

GroundZero is a freshly remade console server looking to bring back that classic DAYZ kinda vibe again, with some improvements to map locations,loot, and added server events so it still feels new and fresh at the same time. We welcome all kinds of different play-styles and players to join so survivors can have all sorts of interactions from friendly to black screens. We do avoid the heatmaps/ npc traders/ base radars/ etc. because its not what DAYZ was all bout in the first place, its all about the journey and the blood, sweat, tears it took to get there. Hope to see you out there survivors Mahalos🤙
SERVER LIST:

 👀 - 1PP 🏃‍♂️ - 5X Stamina 🚗 - 2X Fully Built Cars 💰- Vanilla Loot ⚔️ - 24/7 Raid 🔨 - Build Anywhere 🔫 - Gun Rack Spawns 🌌 - Dark Nights 🏴‍☠️ - Factions 🗺 - Customized Locations ❄️ - Customized Weather 👑 - King Of The Hill Event 👷‍♂️ - Active Staff ⚠️ - Changes Are Prone To Happen ⚠️ - Always Improving 🛠 - Chernarus Bunkers (W.I.P) 🛠️ - Server Events (W.I.P) 🛠️ - Faction Events W.I.P) 🛠️ - Zombie Hordes (W.I.P) 

Reds @ Red Sox - Tue, May 30

Game Status: Final - Score: 9-8 Reds

Links & Info

• MLB Gameday
• Game Graphs
• Savant Gamefeed

	Reds Batters	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	LOB	AVG	OBP	SLG
1	Friedl - CF	3	0	0	1	0	1	2	.326	.377	.496
	Barrero - CF	2	1	2	4	1	0	0	.235	.313	.353
2	McLain - SS	6	0	1	0	0	2	4	.357	.429	.554
3	India - 2B	5	1	1	0	0	1	3	.288	.372	.434
4	Fraley - DH	4	0	1	1	1	1	2	.252	.341	.404
5	Stephenson, T - C	3	1	1	0	2	1	1	.251	.343	.348
6	Steer - 1B	4	1	2	1	0	0	4	.288	.353	.485
7	Newman - 3B	4	1	0	0	1	1	3	.269	.333	.361
8	Benson - LF	5	3	3	0	0	0	3	.156	.182	.219
9	Fairchild - RF	4	1	1	1	1	2	2	.250	.348	.393
	Totals	40	9	12	8	6	9	24

Reds
BATTING: 2B: Fraley (8, Garza). 3B: Benson (1, Bello); Stephenson, T (1, Sherriff). HR: Barrero (2, 7th inning off Rodríguez, J, 3 on, 1 out). TB: Barrero 5; Benson 5; Fairchild; Fraley 2; India; McLain; Steer 2; Stephenson, T 3. RBI: Barrero 4 (17); Fairchild (15); Fraley (35); Friedl (20); Steer (26). Runners left in scoring position, 2 out: Steer 2; McLain; Fraley 2; Newman 2. SF: Steer. Team RISP: 1-for-15. Team LOB: 11.
FIELDING: Outfield assists: Barrero (Hernández, K at home); Fairchild (Yoshida at 2nd base). DP: (Fairchild-McLain).

	Red Sox Batters	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	LOB	AVG	OBP	SLG
1	Tapia, R - RF	5	2	3	2	0	0	0	.277	.341	.386
2	Devers - 3B	5	1	2	2	0	1	0	.246	.286	.498
3	Turner, J - DH	5	1	1	1	0	0	1	.263	.353	.407
4	Yoshida - LF	4	0	3	1	1	0	0	.313	.389	.486
	1-Reyes, P - PR	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.273	.314	.364
5	Duran, Ja - CF	5	0	1	1	0	1	3	.293	.342	.466
6	Casas - 1B	5	0	0	0	0	2	4	.193	.308	.359
7	Hernández, K - SS	3	0	1	0	1	1	0	.237	.313	.358
8	Valdez, E - 2B	3	2	1	0	1	2	4	.247	.301	.416
9	McGuire - C	4	2	2	1	0	1	4	.293	.318	.366
	Totals	39	8	14	8	3	8	16

Red Sox
1-Ran for Yoshida in the 9th.
BATTING: 2B: Duran, Ja (14, Lively); Tapia, R (4, Lively); McGuire 2 (6, Cruz, F, Salazar); Yoshida (11, Díaz, A). 3B: Tapia, R (1, Cruz, F). TB: Devers 2; Duran, Ja 2; Hernández, K; McGuire 4; Tapia, R 6; Turner, J; Valdez, E; Yoshida 4. RBI: Devers 2 (46); Duran, Ja (20); McGuire (10); Tapia, R 2 (10); Turner, J (21); Yoshida (30). 2-out RBI: McGuire; Devers; Tapia, R. Runners left in scoring position, 2 out: Casas; McGuire 2. Team RISP: 6-for-12. Team LOB: 7.
FIELDING: E: Hernández, K 2 (11, throw, throw).

Reds Pitchers	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	P-S	ERA
Lively (W, 3-2)	5.2	4	0	0	2	6	0	87-59	1.99
Young, Al (H, 7)	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	4-3	2.91
Cruz, F	1.0	4	3	3	0	1	0	17-13	7.47
Farmer, B	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	12-8	2.70
Salazar	0.1	4	5	5	1	0	0	26-16	16.20
Díaz, A (S, 13)	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	0	12-8	1.69
Totals	9.0	14	8	8	3	8	0

Red Sox Pitchers	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	P-S	ERA
Bello (L, 3-3)	4.0	5	1	1	2	4	0	97-61	3.89
Garza	1.2	3	2	1	1	2	0	41-27	1.42
Rodríguez, J	0.2	2	5	5	3	1	1	36-16	18.00
Sherriff	2.2	2	1	1	0	2	0	31-22	1.93
Totals	9.0	12	9	8	6	9	1

Game Info
WP: Garza.
Pitches-strikes: Lively 87-59; Young, Al 4-3; Cruz, F 17-13; Farmer, B 12-8; Salazar 26-16; Díaz, A 12-8; Bello 97-61; Garza 41-27; Rodríguez, J 36-16; Sherriff 31-22.
Groundouts-flyouts: Lively 5-4; Young, Al 0-0; Cruz, F 1-1; Farmer, B 1-0; Salazar 0-0; Díaz, A 1-0; Bello 8-0; Garza 3-0; Rodríguez, J 1-0; Sherriff 2-2.
Batters faced: Lively 22; Young, Al 1; Cruz, F 7; Farmer, B 3; Salazar 6; Díaz, A 3; Bello 20; Garza 10; Rodríguez, J 7; Sherriff 10.
Inherited runners-scored: Young, Al 1-0; Díaz, A 2-2; Rodríguez, J 2-0.
Umpires: HP: Sean Barber. 1B: Alan Porter. 2B: Jim Wolf. 3B: Mike Muchlinski.
Weather: 65 degrees, Clear.
Wind: 3 mph, R To L.
First pitch: 7:12 PM.
T: 3:12.
Att: 31,642.
Venue: Fenway Park.
May 30, 2023

Inning	Scoring Play	Score
Top 2	TJ Friedl grounds into a force out, second baseman Enmanuel Valdez to shortstop Enrique Hernandez. Will Benson scores. Stuart Fairchild out at 2nd. TJ Friedl to 1st.	1-0 CIN
Top 5	Jake Fraley doubles (8) on a line drive to center fielder Jarren Duran. Jonathan India scores.	2-0 CIN
Top 6	Matt McLain reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by shortstop Enrique Hernandez. Will Benson scores. Jose Barrero to 3rd. Matt McLain to 2nd. Throwing error by shortstop Enrique Hernandez.	3-0 CIN
Top 7	Stuart Fairchild walks. Spencer Steer scores. Kevin Newman to 3rd. Will Benson to 2nd.	4-0 CIN
Top 7	Jose Barrero hits a grand slam (2) to left field. Kevin Newman scores. Will Benson scores. Stuart Fairchild scores.	8-0 CIN
Bottom 7	Reese McGuire doubles (5) on a fly ball to center fielder Jose Barrero. Enmanuel Valdez scores.	8-1 CIN
Bottom 7	Raimel Tapia triples (1) on a sharp fly ball to right fielder Stuart Fairchild. Reese McGuire scores.	8-2 CIN
Bottom 7	Rafael Devers singles on a line drive to right fielder Stuart Fairchild. Raimel Tapia scores.	8-3 CIN
Top 8	Spencer Steer out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Masataka Yoshida. Tyler Stephenson scores.	9-3 CIN
Bottom 9	Raimel Tapia singles on a ground ball to right fielder Stuart Fairchild. Enmanuel Valdez scores. Reese McGuire to 3rd.	9-4 CIN
Bottom 9	Rafael Devers singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jose Barrero. Reese McGuire scores. Raimel Tapia to 3rd.	9-5 CIN
Bottom 9	Justin Turner singles on a ground ball to right fielder Stuart Fairchild. Raimel Tapia scores. Rafael Devers to 2nd.	9-6 CIN
Bottom 9	Masataka Yoshida doubles (11) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jose Barrero. Rafael Devers scores. Justin Turner to 3rd.	9-7 CIN
Bottom 9	Jarren Duran grounds out, shortstop Matt McLain to first baseman Spencer Steer. Justin Turner scores. Pablo Reyes to 3rd.	9-8 CIN

Team	Highlight
BOS	Bullpen availability for Boston, May 30 vs Reds (00:00:07)
CIN	Bullpen availability for Cincinnati, May 30 vs Red Sox (00:00:07)
BOS	Fielding alignment for Boston, May 30 vs Reds (00:00:11)
CIN	Fielding alignment for Cincinnati, May 30 vs Red Sox (00:00:11)
BOS	Starting lineups for Reds at Red Sox - May 30, 2023 (00:00:09)
CIN	Jose Barrero: Home Run Statcast Analysis (00:00:11)
CIN	TJ Friedl's RBI force out (00:00:19)
CIN	Lively gets out of jam in the 2nd (00:00:09)
BOS	Masataka Yoshida's sliding catch (00:00:24)
BOS	Bello gets out of jam with two K's (00:00:27)
CIN	Jake Fraley's RBI double (00:00:23)
CIN	McLain's relay gets Hernández at home (00:00:24)
CIN	Will Benson scores on an error (00:00:30)
BOS	Brayan Bello's four strikeouts (00:00:39)
CIN	Spencer Steer scores on a walk (00:00:08)
CIN	Barrero's 1st career grand slam (00:00:44)
BOS	Reese McGuire's RBI double (00:00:27)
BOS	Raimel Tapia's RBI triple (00:00:23)
BOS	Rafael Devers' RBI single (00:00:13)
CIN	Spencer Steer's sacrifice fly (00:00:16)
BOS	Raimel Tapia's RBI single (00:00:16)
BOS	Rafael Devers' 2nd RBI single (00:00:14)
BOS	Justin Turner's RBI single (00:00:14)
BOS	Masataka Yoshida's RBI double (00:00:18)
BOS	Jarren Duran's RBI groundout (00:00:21)
CIN	CIN @ BOS (00:00:10)
BOS	Masataka Yoshida's 3 hit day reel (00:01:14)

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9		R	H	E	LOB
Reds	0	1	0	0	1	1	5	1	0		9	12	0	11
Red Sox	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	5		8	14	2	7

Decisions

• Winner: Ben Lively (3-2, 1.99)
• Loser: Brayan Bello (3-3, 3.89)
• Save: Alexis Diaz (13, 1.69)

Division Scoreboard

MIL 2 @ TOR 7 - Final
KC 1 @ STL 2 - Final
TB 1 @ CHC 2 - Final
PIT 2 @ SF 1 - Top 6, 2 Outs
Next Reds Game: Wed, May 31, 07:10 PM EDT @ Red Sox
^{Last Updated: 05/30/2023 11:26:32 PM EDT}

Welcome back to another Pick'Em thread!
This post can be used to discuss your picks for 05/31/2023. If you have any feedback or suggestions on improving the thread further, drop a comment below or message the moderators.
Don't forget: picks must be submitted during the twelve-hour window before Noon EDT on game day, you can only make one selection per day, and missed days count as losses, so choose wisely and don't delay!
Games for Wednesday, 05/31/2023:

Matchup and Team Records	Probable Pitchers (Season ERA)	Estimated Win Probability
Texas Rangers (35-19) @ Detroit Tigers (25-28)	Dane Dunning (1.67) / TBD (-)	57% / 43%
Los Angeles Angels (29-26) @ Chicago White Sox (22-34)	Jaime Barria (1.55) / Lance Lynn (5.83)	51% / 49%
Tampa Bay Rays (39-17) @ Chicago Cubs (23-30)	Zach Eflin (3.17) / Justin Steele (2.77)	57% / 43%
Cleveland Guardians (24-29) @ Baltimore Orioles (34-20)	Shane Bieber (3.04) / TBD (-)	47% / 53%
Atlanta Braves (32-22) @ Oakland Athletics (11-45)	Jared Shuster (5.33) / James Kaprielian (8.45)	68% / 32%
Pittsburgh Pirates (26-27) @ San Francisco Giants (28-26)	Mitch Keller (3.01) / Alex Wood (3.51)	40% / 60%
Washington Nationals (23-31) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (33-22)	Patrick Corbin (4.88) / Noah Syndergaard (6.27)	30% / 70%
San Diego Padres (24-29) @ Miami Marlins (28-26)	Blake Snell (5.04) / Braxton Garrett (4.50)	53% / 47%
Milwaukee Brewers (28-25) @ Toronto Blue Jays (28-26)	Julio Teheran (1.80) / Alek Manoah (5.53)	43% / 57%
Cincinnati Reds (24-29) @ Boston Red Sox (28-25)	Luke Weaver (5.45) / James Paxton (5.14)	38% / 62%
Philadelphia Phillies (25-29) @ New York Mets (28-27)	Aaron Nola (4.59) / Carlos Carrasco (6.75)	44% / 56%
Minnesota Twins (28-26) @ Houston Astros (31-22)	Louie Varland (4.24) / Hunter Brown (3.12)	43% / 57%
Colorado Rockies (24-31) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (31-23)	Dinelson Lamet (12.66) / Tommy Henry (4.50)	39% / 61%
New York Yankees (33-23) @ Seattle Mariners (28-26)	Clarke Schmidt (5.58) / George Kirby (3.43)	53% / 47%

1. All columns are Away / Home. Records are typically current as-of the time of posting, and do not always contain the matchup results from the day of posting.
2. A bolded matchup means that there is a "Probability of Precipitation" greater than 50% in a non-domed stadium at the time of this post.
3. An italicized matchup means that it is Game 2 of a doubleheader, which for Pick'Em purposes will not be applicable (only Game 1 is counted, but Game 2 is still included above so that you can be aware that pitching management may be different than a non-doubleheader game day).
4. Probable pitchers and stats sourced from mlb.com (via the MLB-StatsAPI); weather data soured from the OpenWeather One Call API.
5. Estimated chance of winning percentages sourced from FiveThirtyEight’s 2023 MLB Game Predictions, an ELO-based, easy to understand ratings system.

Details such as probable pitchers, winning odds, and match certainty are subject to change. Note that a pick for a team in a cancelled game (weather or otherwise) is automatically counted as a correct guess.
View Poll

Obviously, I am wrong about every one of these but tell me why.
Day 1:
Alisa Amadore: fun, Norah Jones type jazz with her own voice 7/10 on The indie scale
The Beaches: Fun modern rock band with heavy 60s beach rock influence 8/10 indie scale
Talk: raspy Rock and roll, didn't shy away from covers and had a lot of fun doing it 6/10 on the headliner scale
Blue Light Bandits: heavy use of the minor key, very waily, their faster stuff was the best tbh 5/10 on the indie scale
Dropkick Murphys: Old men yell at crowd; crowd yells back 8/10 headliners
Little Fuss: Scott Pilgrim vibes with a female lead with vocals that were flat way more than they should've been. Lots of future potential here if they get a good producer 3/10 indie scale 5/10 when warmed up
Niall Horan: all the way from Brazil(Ireland) along with about 200 raving lunatic women front and center, a very technically sound performance, great use of violin, and oops, I'm now one of the raving women. Discovery of this type of music that was sitting right under my nose is exactly why I came here. Started at 6/10 and built to 9/10
Foo Fighters: wait, who are these guys? 9/10 I think if the drummer went any harder he would ignite fusion and form new elements out of the atmosphere. All gas, no breaks with these guys.
Day 2:
Neemz: R&B/rap performer; the DJ was fantastic and the performance was her singing/rapping over the recording with a very low microphone. Not a bad performance but the style doesn't lend itself well for a live show. 4/10 on the indie scale
Loveless: the world is still producing whiny boy bands and they are pretty good. Okay stage presence. 6/10 headliners scale
The Aces: Buddy Holly meets Funk; I guess that makes them the female Arctic Monkeys. Great stage presence, especially dealing with technical difficulties. I'm not sure what scale to put them on because they were so good. 10/10 indie scale but they won't get that scale next time. Consider me a new fan.
Joy Oladokun: I've heard of her and her one-hit song but I did not expect the sheer joy (pun not intended) she shares on stage. Her other non-hit stuff was a lot less waily and I am now a fan. 8/10 headliner scale
Actor Observer: Maybe because it was hardcore metal but these guys went the hardest of anyone at the festival so far. A lot of musical depth here that really came out when they were harmonizing 9/10 indie scale and this is the reason I wanted to come to this music festival, to discover new music. If you like anything hardcore from rock to metal, check them out. They live right up the street in Boston.
Noah Kahan: local Watertown boy literally draws a bigger crowd than the Lumineers. It was standing room only for the biggest stage and everyone knew the words. I was not incredibly familiar with him before the festival but this was the stage presence that I expected from the Lumineers. The embodiment of northern folk music and it shines bright. 9/10 headliners
The Flaming Lips: Going in not a fan, I saw 15 ft robots, giant balloons popping into confetti on the crowd, and a man singing from an orb. Pure childhood joy bottled, distilled, and injected into your veins. I don't believe in extended scales but the stage presence 100% overcomes any lack of technical talent. 10/10 and they literally stole the show. The words spiritual experience were brought up multiple times from different people.
The Lumineers: maybe the expectations were just too high but these guys had no stage presence. The songs sounded exactly like the album which is skillful and good but not really what live music is about. Great atmosphere in the place made up for it with people dancing and singing along. Obviously, everyone knew the words. It all felt very corporate for folk. 7/10 headliners scale.
Day 3:
Juice: The spiritual successor to Earth Wind and Fire with a lot more depth and variety. Multiple genres, they were the best opening act of the weekend. 8/10 indie scale
Wunderhorse: If you told me that Nirvana had done a colab with White Stripes I would believe you. Stage presence was basically non-existent. 8/10 indie scale because the music was so on point
Workman Song: Christian music that doesn't need to market that way. Blues folk that could stand as the soundtrack to paddle off into the sunset on a southern river. Extra points for some of the chords giving literal chills. 8/10 indie scale
Linda Lindas: Tiny girls as young as 12 sing about their cats. They accidentally rock and roll. What a stage presence... "hey crowd, what's your favorite dinosaur? Stegosaurus ? Trex?" 8/10 headliners scale.
070 Shake: Neemz could learn a thing or two from this performance. Perfect audio levels over the base track. Her vocals really added to a fantastic dj. Probably shouldn't drink mid-performance but it was still fun. 6/10 headliners scale
Sorry Mom: Sorry mom indeed. 9/10 guitar work. Lots of screaming but not so much the vocals to back it up. Don't let the rating fool you, these girls go hard. 5/10 indie scale
Genesis Owusu: Pink Floyd meets the Black Eyed Peas, there's certainly an A+ stage presence and he was all in. 7/10 headliners
Bleachers: Love letter to music production, Queen at Live Aid vibes, they know how to lead a crowd. Perfect music festival act. 8/10 headliners. Bonus points for giant tomatoes and dueling saxophones.
Ali McGuirk: Wonderful blues, Norah Jones if she was really into blues but early on in her career. 7/10 indie
Maren Morris: This woman's voice could single handedly turn the tide of a world war. It was all live and she sang her heart out. Great accompaniment and great blues, the stage was somehow too small. 8/10 headliner
Queens of the Stone Age: Stage presence was hard to determine from where I was but No One Knows was perfectly built into completely making up for any set issues prior. A lot of it felt like just biding time. 8/10 headliners scale
Paramore: What's there to say? Haley's ability to absolutely nail disjunct high notes was there 20 years ago. It hasn't gotten better because it was already perfect. There were some interesting song choices that made the performance drag but the entire stage was set up for them. 9/10
Overall:
All in all it was a fantastic festival. If the goal was to discover new music, it was a complete success. Lots of new Boston locals to appreciate and some headliners that had slipped through. The Flaming Lips, The Aces, Noah Kahan, Nial Horan, and the Linda Lindas all started out barely on my radar and absolutely blew me away.